Tropical Storm Humberto Drenching the Cape Verde Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

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Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Humberto has formed unusually far to the east, between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the southern Cape Verde Islands, and Humberto's rain bands have already arrived in capital city of Praia, where 1.46" of rain has fallen, with sustained winds as high as 26 mph. Humberto's west to west-northwest motion at 12 mph will keep the storm just south and west of the islands through Tuesday, but this path will be close enough to bring potentially dangerous rainfall amounts of 3 - 6 inches to the southern islands. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. The models are bullish of developing Humberto into a hurricane just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday. If Humberto reaches hurricane strength before 8 am EDT on Wednesday, 2013 will avoid setting the record for the latest formation date of the Atlantic's first hurricane, dating back the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era in 1944. Humberto is expected to take a sharp northwards turn later this week, which will carry the storm into a region of ocean where no land areas would likely be at risk from a strike, with the possible exception of the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Humberto, taken at 7:45 am EDT September 9, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

Cape Verde Islands Hurricane History
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde Islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin. Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde Islands, these islands rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde Islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, there have been only two deadly tropical cyclones in Cape Verde history. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Fran brought sustained winds of 35 mph and torrential rains to the islands. The rains triggered flash flooding that killed 29 - 31 people and caused damages of almost $3 million (1984 dollars.) The other deadly named storm was Tropical Storm Beryl of 1982, which passed about 30 miles south of the southwestern islands on August 29, with 45 mph winds. The storm's heavy rains killed three people on Brava Island, injured 122, and caused $3 million in damage.

The most recent named storm to affect the islands was Hurricane Julia of 2010, which was the easternmost Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. Julia passed about 50 miles south of Sao Filipe in the southern Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, bringing wind gusts of 30 mph to the islands and some minor flooding.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern Cape Verde Islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Torrential rains from Fran killed 29 - 31 people in the Cape Verde Islands, making it the deadliest storm in their history.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next three days. The disturbance is headed to the north-northeast to northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda Tuesday through Wednesday. Since strong westerly winds are keeping most of ex-Gabrielle's heavy thunderstorms displaced to the east, the bulk of this activity should miss Bermuda. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Jeff Masters

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1268. TXCWC
Quoting 1265. Stormchaser121:

True but I live further up the coast. I live right next to the border of TX/LA. That why im hoping it goes further north.


I hear you - just about all of us here in the State need rain. In any case we have about a week to watch and see. Here's hoping one or both of us get something. :)
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Well my hopes are up there, why would u want a storm way up the coast. High won't let it go that far north. Seems like someone wants a storm bad!!
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Quoting 1264. TXCWC:


Buy that is WHY I am a bit more hopeful on than in the past. BECAUSE THESE RAINS ARE EVEN WITH/DESPITE THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO MEXICO NOT TX.


Models and our eyeballs our showing Hermine II, hold the faith. I know it's hard.
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Quoting 1264. TXCWC:


Buy that is WHY I am a bit more hopeful on than in the past. BECAUSE THESE RAINS ARE EVEN WITH/DESPITE THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO MEXICO NOT TX.

True but I live further up the coast. I live right next to the border of TX/LA. That why im hoping it goes further north.
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1264. TXCWC
Quoting 1263. Stormchaser121:

Im not either...they always go to MX from there.


Buy that is WHY I am a bit more hopeful (of needed rains) than in the past. BECAUSE THESE RAINS ARE EVEN WITH/DESPITE THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO MEXICO NOT TX.
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Quoting 1261. SouthCentralTx:



Oh wow that is exciting indeed. But I am not getting my hopes up on it though.

Im not either...they always go to MX from there. Hopefully it will move more WNW to NW.
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1262. TXCWC
Quoting 1261. SouthCentralTx:



Oh wow that is exciting indeed. But I am not getting my hopes up on it though.


Is at least SOMETHING to hope for. But your right - this is by no means a guarantee, but for now it is looking good. :)
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Quoting 1260. TXCWC:
Way to soon to say where the Gulf System will end up but one thing I am liking is the needed rains coming into Texas - even if the low itself goes into N.Mex

GFS


GFS Ensemble Mean (0Z)


GEM


GEM Ensemble Mean (12Z run)




Oh wow that is exciting indeed. But I am not getting my hopes up on it though.
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1260. TXCWC
Way to soon to say where the Gulf System will end up but one thing I am liking is the needed rains coming into Texas - even if the low itself goes into N.Mex. Of course will have to see how future model trends go but am hopeful right now of at least needed rains coming soon.

GFS


GFS Ensemble Mean (0Z)


GEM


GEM Ensemble Mean (12Z run)

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Quoting 1252. BahaHurican:
Good night to the late night crew...



Now this is looking more like a tropical cyclone season is underway.... lol ... and I note from the discussion that Humberto is likely to become a hurricane just at or before the record would be broken, so at best we'd get a tie.

This is much more interesting...




Our 10%er.
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1258. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


No, I meant since she came off Africa.


Looks like 92L (GABRIELLE) was first mentioned August 30th
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Quoting 1256. redwagon:


No, I meant since she came off Africa.


Just over two weeks ago.
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Quoting 1254. Civicane49:


Gabrielle formed on September 4, so that's five days ago.


No, I meant since she came off Africa.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST MON SEP 9 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII...WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTER OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEARED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

$$

RYSHKO
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Quoting 1250. redwagon:
Quoting Civivane, Gab TWO:

How old is Gabrielle? 14 days?


Gabrielle formed on September 4, so that's five days ago.
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92L JUMP UP TO 70%
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13709
Good night to the late night crew...



Now this is looking more like a tropical cyclone season is underway.... lol ... and I note from the discussion that Humberto is likely to become a hurricane just at or before the record would be broken, so at best we'd get a tie.

This is much more interesting...
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Quoting 1187. oldnewmex:
Re: AussieStorm post ll44-
Isn't this a little early in your fire season?

Here in California, we are just coming to grips with the damage from the Rim Fire. Best of luck to you.


Yep, it's awful. I was involved in the Cedar and Paradise fires in 2003. Just breaks your heart to see people coming back and their houses are burnt down or damaged. Over 2000 homes destroyed. I believe the Cedar fire is the largest in California history, at least since records have been kept.





Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5136
Quoting Civivane, Gab TWO:

How old is Gabrielle? 14 days?
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Sky News Australia ‏@SkyNewsAust 2m
BREAKING NEWS: one property has been destroyed by fire in #Winmalee and 4 fire fighters injured.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT OVER OR VERY NEAR BERMUDA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
REQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY LATE THURSDAY WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
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Unreal pics, Aussie! Thanks for sharing.



And, here is something I just ran across, apparently just happened too at the end of August.

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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1003.3mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.7
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Why is it that every time something forms in the W Carib...the models say MX?
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NWS Brownsville ‏@NWSBrownsville 1m
Watching the Bay of Campeche later this week. Still VERY early, but worth monitoring. #rgvwx

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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I hate forest fires! Seen too many houses and acreage burn as a ex volunteer firefighter.


I just view from afar though I have seen up close the damage and devastation caused.



#rfs request aerial support for houses under threat. Just heard a Red Red Red message. Wind not helping at all.
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Quoting 1178. AussieStorm:


I hate forest fires! Seen too many houses and acreage burn as a ex volunteer firefighter.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5136
1240. BA
Quoting 1197. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks like rain for southern Texas which would be good news.



we've had plenty of rain in south Texas past couple months
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Quoting 1233. Civicane49:


Oh, darn... the Wrn circ getting ahead of the Ern circ.

I have to protest. Cape Verdes are supposed to be robust, round, straight-tracking. Have to look for divergent models for the story.....
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1237. Skyepony (Mod)
GFS forecast wind map around Bermuda for 92L.

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1236. ncstorm
Quoting 1234. CaribBoy:


EX98L looks like a june wave...


the number 9 in that pic stands for September which is going to be a historic month for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season..mark my words (or numbers)..good night!!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
1235. Skyepony (Mod)
92L is shallow,warm core & expected to stay that way by the gfs. GFS is outperforming the rest on 92L now too.

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EX98L looks like a june wave...
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In the middle of the night....... B-O-R-E-D.
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1231. Skyepony (Mod)
92L GABRIELLE
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Quoting 1224. JLPR2:


I would say it is more of a comma shape. And interestingly it looks healthier now than when it was a TS. That long band of strong convection wrapping into the circulation from the SE is impressive considering it was basically dead earlier today(yesterday).


Maybe soon we will learn what causes longevity vs. short death in cyclones. We certainly have enough evidential examples. I still marvel Gabrielle even is together given that parasite that sucked her dry for days?
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Quoting seer2012:


Hard to tell right now but at least 2 in Sydney's North West are being investigated by police
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Quoting 1226. AussieStorm:< So how many of these fires are suspected arson?
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1227. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1221. Progster:


Lol. Vegas was pretty exciting this evening...





They got their electricity back..

Extreme Weather in USA on Tuesday, 10 September, 2013 at 03:11 (03:11 AM) UTC.
Description
NV Energy says it has restored power to most customers that lost electricity in the powerful storm that hit Monday afternoon. The area near Eastern Avenue and Bonanza was fully restored before 7 p.m. The cause of the outage was lightning. As of 8 p.m., the area near Sahara Avenue and Highland Drive is mostly restored, but lineman are still patrolling the area. The company says it lost two major distribution circuits in the storm. About 2,000 people were without power at one point.
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Rob Rogers %u200F@robrfs 1m
Fire in Winmalee (Blue Mountains) currently threatening properties. Report of a home alight. #nswfires
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Might be one more wave to come out of this area over Ethiopia/Sudan
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1224. JLPR2
Quoting 1220. redwagon:


Persistent and donut = annular. Gab has survived more than has been asked of any cyclone.


I would say it is more of a comma shape. And interestingly it looks healthier now than when it was a TS. That long band of strong convection wrapping into the circulation from the SE is impressive considering it was basically dead earlier today(yesterday).
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8506
More bushfire photo's




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Quoting 1218. Astrometeor:


Shh! Don't say that!

And I have no clue, sorry.
LOL that's ok, I'll have to go find a graph on the number of severe weather events by month, but for now I'm too tired to search. Good night to you man and night everyone.
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Quoting 1213. Astrometeor:
It's quiet. Too quiet.



Lol. Vegas was pretty exciting this evening...



09 Sep 5:56 pm PDT 74 61 64 N 26G41 10.00 -TSRA SCT090CB BKN140 OVC200

09 Sep 5:44 pm PDT 75 59 57 NNW 30G41 9.00 -TSRA SQ SCT090CB BKN140 OVC200

09 Sep 5:40 pm PDT 79 55 45 N 31G44 8.00 -TSRA SCT090CB BKN140 OVC200

09 Sep 5:35 pm PDT 84 54 35 NNW 36G44 8.00 -TSRA SCT090CB BKN140 OVC200
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Quoting 1201. JLPR2:
Gabrielle is looking alive, if it maintains itself I wouldn't be surprised to see it back at 5am.



Persistent and donut = annular. Gab has survived more than has been asked of any cyclone.
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1219. JLPR2
Maybe tomorrow we we'll have two active storms.





And jeez, even though it is all the way up at 27N Gabrielle's outflow still reaches PR at 17-18N.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8506
Quoting 1217. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Isn't September the quietest month for severe weather in the US?


Shh! Don't say that!

And I have no clue, sorry.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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