Tropical Storm Humberto Drenching the Cape Verde Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

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Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Humberto has formed unusually far to the east, between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the southern Cape Verde Islands, and Humberto's rain bands have already arrived in capital city of Praia, where 1.46" of rain has fallen, with sustained winds as high as 26 mph. Humberto's west to west-northwest motion at 12 mph will keep the storm just south and west of the islands through Tuesday, but this path will be close enough to bring potentially dangerous rainfall amounts of 3 - 6 inches to the southern islands. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. The models are bullish of developing Humberto into a hurricane just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday. If Humberto reaches hurricane strength before 8 am EDT on Wednesday, 2013 will avoid setting the record for the latest formation date of the Atlantic's first hurricane, dating back the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era in 1944. Humberto is expected to take a sharp northwards turn later this week, which will carry the storm into a region of ocean where no land areas would likely be at risk from a strike, with the possible exception of the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Humberto, taken at 7:45 am EDT September 9, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

Cape Verde Islands Hurricane History
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde Islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin. Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde Islands, these islands rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde Islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, there have been only two deadly tropical cyclones in Cape Verde history. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Fran brought sustained winds of 35 mph and torrential rains to the islands. The rains triggered flash flooding that killed 29 - 31 people and caused damages of almost $3 million (1984 dollars.) The other deadly named storm was Tropical Storm Beryl of 1982, which passed about 30 miles south of the southwestern islands on August 29, with 45 mph winds. The storm's heavy rains killed three people on Brava Island, injured 122, and caused $3 million in damage.

The most recent named storm to affect the islands was Hurricane Julia of 2010, which was the easternmost Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. Julia passed about 50 miles south of Sao Filipe in the southern Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, bringing wind gusts of 30 mph to the islands and some minor flooding.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern Cape Verde Islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Torrential rains from Fran killed 29 - 31 people in the Cape Verde Islands, making it the deadliest storm in their history.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next three days. The disturbance is headed to the north-northeast to northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda Tuesday through Wednesday. Since strong westerly winds are keeping most of ex-Gabrielle's heavy thunderstorms displaced to the east, the bulk of this activity should miss Bermuda. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Jeff Masters

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1318. VR46L
Quoting 1316. bigwes6844:
that energy is what it needs but do u see this MJO in october omg this would be crazy!

but as the chart shows it should be active!


Maybe the season will live up to the hype ....

Ah THE CHART !!!
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1317. VR46L
Feel the Energy

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Quoting 1314. VR46L:


Its like someone has struck a match and threw it on the Gas ... the Atlantic is finally lighting up ... 2 Storms IMO and a couple of possibilities in the next few days...
that energy is what it needs but do u see this MJO in october omg this would be crazy!

but as the chart shows it should be active!
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2473
Quoting 1311. bigwes6844:

Kori wassup with this man?



There is a small window for the system to move north into the Texas or Louisiana coasts. The GFS shows an amplifying mid-level trough over the central United States this weekend, which could theoretically turn the system northward. A lot has to happen for that though; most notably, the modeled cyclone has to form above 20N, ideally around 22N. We also need to watch the evolution of the modeled trough, as a lot can change in five days, and if it's a bit deeper and more southward, this may pull the system north regardless.

Mexico is most likely for now, but there is still a nonzero chance of this moving up toward the United States Gulf Coast.
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1314. VR46L
Quoting 1309. bigwes6844:
ex 98L says yall not giving the love


Its like someone has struck a match and threw it on the Gas ... the Atlantic is finally lighting up ... 2 Storms IMO and a couple of possibilities in the next few days...
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this blog would go crazy if this happens
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1312. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
ONT50 LFPW 100706
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 419, TUESDAY 10 SEPTEMBER 2013 AT 0705 UTC

Severe Tropical Storm Humberto 1000 near 13.9N 25.9W by 10/03 UTC, moving west northwest at 9 kt. Max sustained winds 50kt with gusts to 60kt. Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant.

Expected 14.4n 27.1w by 10/21 utc, 15.4N 28.1W by 11/00 UTC 16.9N 28.7W by 11/12 UTC. Intensifying, expected to become soon a hurricane.
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Quoting 1304. KoritheMan:


I know. It sucks.

Not much we can do, though.

Kori wassup with this man?

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i guess today mite as well call it the day the old storms come out the graveyard first its gabby and check out ex 98L. hmm mite be getting a % at 8
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Quoting 1302. VR46L:
Good Morning Folks!

Worth a look

Loop embedded

ex 98L says yall not giving the love
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Quoting 729. bigwes6844:

up to 90mph! mite go up to 100 by 11. also look at the % on cat 3 folks this mite get major status lets see


just like I knew but im thinking 110 or 115 mph at the 5am Advisory.
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06z SHIPS and LGEM models lowered the intensity forecast a little for Humberto. SHIPS kept it at Category 2 status, however.

V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 72 77 85 87 85 81 73 61 49 40

V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 70 74 79 79 74 66 59 53 48 44
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1305. VR46L
Gabi looking good ... I didnt see her first time round Internet problems...



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Quoting 1244. Stormchaser121:
Why is it that every time something forms in the W Carib...the models say MX?


I know. It sucks.

Not much we can do, though.
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Should become the season's first hurricane by tomorrow.

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1302. VR46L
Good Morning Folks!

Worth a look

Loop embedded

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Say Hello to Mrs Gabby shes back!! and Mr Humberto as he approaches Hurricane status! and 10% in the Caribbean!Welcome to the peak of Hurricane season!
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Quoting 1244. Stormchaser121:
Why is it that every time something forms in the W Carib...the models say MX?


Cuz it's a pretty big close target?
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Humberto is very beautiful!
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bust season?? hmm got quiet on here. as i said early this month september is the month to remember. Levi did a good job on saying patience!
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Quoting 1293. HurricaneAndre:


That little oval W of Humberto (who looks mad) is the Wrn circ he's about to ingest. Look for more Wrn tracks.
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Should be gabby in two hours!
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back from work i see humberto mite get cat 2! looking good on satellite too.
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Beautiful.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 2211
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Quoting 1287. evilpenguinshan:
Gabrielle.
remnant low kept its identity the whole time, keeps the name.



Should be noted that MX-falling and regenerating storms have not kept their names. We had huge arguments, was it the MLC or the LLC that owned the name? Turned out it was the MLC, per NHC.
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she's baaaaack

AL, 07, 2013091006, , BEST, 0, 290N, 650W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1015, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, D,
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Quoting 1288. Civicane49:
AL, 09, 2013091006, , BEST, 0, 142N, 263W, 55, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 40, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
up to 65mph,close to hurricane status.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 18 Comments: 2211
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AL, 09, 2013091006, , BEST, 0, 142N, 263W, 55, 998, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 40, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D,
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
Gabrielle.
remnant low kept its identity the whole time, keeps the name.

Quoting 1286. HurricaneHunterJoe:


If regeneration occurs, will it be Gabrielle or Ingrid?
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Quoting 1231. Skyepony:
92L GABRIELLE


If regeneration occurs, will it be Gabrielle or Ingrid?
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AL, 07, 2013091000, , BEST, 0, 272N, 653W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 50, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M,
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there it is:

invest_al072013.invest 10-Sep-2013 06:28 6.9K

not updated in the file yet, but the re-number is there.

Quoting 1283. tropicfreak:
I expect to see a renumber on Ex-Gabrielle shortly...
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I expect to see a renumber on Ex-Gabrielle shortly...
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10/0600 UTC 14.3N 26.2W T3.5/3.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic
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Quoting 1278. Tribucanes:
NHC taking their sweet time with 92L, probably just going to go right to TS by five or eight in classification. So this won't be classified as a new system? This will be TS Gabrielle?


If it regenerates into a tropical cyclone, it will keep its original name. It has kept its identity as remnants of Gabrielle. Similar thing like Dorian earlier this season.
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looks like an upgrade:
invest_RENUMBER_al922013_al072013.ren 10-Sep-2013 06:18
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NHC taking their sweet time with 92L, probably just going to go right to TS by five or eight in classification. So this won't be classified as a new system? This will be TS Gabrielle?
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DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20130909 2345 27.3 65.3 T1.0/1.0 92L GABRIELLE
20130908 2345 25.1 68.4 Too Weak 92L GABRIELLE
20130908 1745 25.0 69.0 T1.0/1.0 92L GABRIELLE
20130908 1145 24.7 68.7 T1.0/1.0 07L GABRIELLE
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1276. Drakoen
Without question, this is a tropical cyclone.

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10/0545 UTC 28.6N 65.3W T1.5/1.5 GABRIELLE -- Atlantic
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Quoting 1273. RGVtropicalWx13:

Northwestern Caribbean


Yup, just a silly mistake by me.
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Quoting 1271. RascalNag:
The Atlantic is finally heating up... Gabrielle seems ready to become at least a TD, maybe even a TS by morning, Humberto is on its way to being our first hurricane, and there's a 60% chance of 5 day genesis with the AOI in the Eastern Caribbean.

Northwestern Caribbean
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Quoting 1230. redwagon:


Maybe soon we will learn what causes longevity vs. short death in cyclones. We certainly have enough evidential examples. I still marvel Gabrielle even is together given that parasite that sucked her dry for days?


Those Cape Verde waves seem to refuse to dissipate.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4576
The Atlantic is finally heating up... Gabrielle seems ready to become at least a TD, maybe even a TS by morning, Humberto is on its way to being our first hurricane, and there's a 60% chance of 5 day genesis with the AOI in the Northwestern Caribbean.
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well looks like we would have AL-TC#9 AL-TC#7 AL-TC#10 operational by late week(Thurs/Fri)
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1268. TXCWC
Quoting 1265. Stormchaser121:

True but I live further up the coast. I live right next to the border of TX/LA. That why im hoping it goes further north.


I hear you - just about all of us here in the State need rain. In any case we have about a week to watch and see. Here's hoping one or both of us get something. :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.