Tropical Storm Humberto Drenching the Cape Verde Islands

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

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Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Humberto has formed unusually far to the east, between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the southern Cape Verde Islands, and Humberto's rain bands have already arrived in capital city of Praia, where 1.46" of rain has fallen, with sustained winds as high as 26 mph. Humberto's west to west-northwest motion at 12 mph will keep the storm just south and west of the islands through Tuesday, but this path will be close enough to bring potentially dangerous rainfall amounts of 3 - 6 inches to the southern islands. Satellite loops show that Humberto is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. The models are bullish of developing Humberto into a hurricane just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday. If Humberto reaches hurricane strength before 8 am EDT on Wednesday, 2013 will avoid setting the record for the latest formation date of the Atlantic's first hurricane, dating back the beginning of the aircraft reconnaissance era in 1944. Humberto is expected to take a sharp northwards turn later this week, which will carry the storm into a region of ocean where no land areas would likely be at risk from a strike, with the possible exception of the Azores Islands.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Humberto, taken at 7:45 am EDT September 9, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

Cape Verde Islands Hurricane History
The Atlantic's most terrifying and destructive hurricanes typically start as tropical waves that move off the coast of Africa and pass near the Cape Verde Islands. This class of storms is referred to as "Cape Verde hurricanes", in reference to their origin. Despite the fact that the Atlantic's most feared type of hurricanes are named after the Cape Verde Islands, these islands rarely receive significant impacts from one of their namesake storms. This is because tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa have very little time to organize into tropical storms before arriving at the Cape Verde Islands, which lie just 350 miles west of the African coast. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, there have been only two deadly tropical cyclones in Cape Verde history. The deadliest was Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Fran brought sustained winds of 35 mph and torrential rains to the islands. The rains triggered flash flooding that killed 29 - 31 people and caused damages of almost $3 million (1984 dollars.) The other deadly named storm was Tropical Storm Beryl of 1982, which passed about 30 miles south of the southwestern islands on August 29, with 45 mph winds. The storm's heavy rains killed three people on Brava Island, injured 122, and caused $3 million in damage.

The most recent named storm to affect the islands was Hurricane Julia of 2010, which was the easternmost Category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. Julia passed about 50 miles south of Sao Filipe in the southern Cape Verde Islands as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, bringing wind gusts of 30 mph to the islands and some minor flooding.


Figure 2. Track of Tropical Storm Fran of 1984, which brushed the southwestern Cape Verde Islands on September 16 as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Torrential rains from Fran killed 29 - 31 people in the Cape Verde Islands, making it the deadliest storm in their history.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 500 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next three days. The disturbance is headed to the north-northeast to northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda Tuesday through Wednesday. Since strong westerly winds are keeping most of ex-Gabrielle's heavy thunderstorms displaced to the east, the bulk of this activity should miss Bermuda. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 20% in their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1416. CybrTeddy:


Only because it takes it further south.
a lot weaker..
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Quoting 1404. GatorWX:
Nice blowup over center. If those clouds stay cold awhile, could intensify fairly quick.


Gabrielle may be a re-shary and becomes a hurricane.
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Quoting 1413. CaneHunter031472:


FIM 7 Dropped the NOLA Doomcast on its 00Z Run.



Only because it takes it further south.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24148
Looks like even 98l is coming back to life. Maybe just a two week delay to the season kicking in.
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1414. VR46L
So many spins ....

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Quoting 1410. SLU:


The tropics look to be coming to life at last. We could get a hurricane in the Gulf next week and a low pressure area approaching the islands in 3 days might try to do something if the shear is low enough.


FIM 7 Dropped the NOLA Doomcast on its 00Z Run.

Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
Bermuda web cam.

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Looking at satellite imagery, I'd say Humberto has actually more than likely injected some dry air. Nothing that will impede it becoming a hurricane, but it'll cause Humberto to reorganize for the next few hours. Other than that, it remains a well organized system generating deep convection.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24148
1410. SLU
Quoting 1397. stoormfury:
SLU COULD BE 3 SYSTEMS WITH EX 92L TRYING TO REFIRE.


The tropics look to be coming to life at last. We could get a hurricane in the Gulf next week and a low pressure area approaching the islands in 3 days might try to do something if the shear is low enough.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5246
1409. Relix
Who turned on the switch? WHoever it was... you took your sweet time :P!
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Quoting 1401. utilastormwatch:


I am located on the island Utila, located just north of the Honduran coast at 16.1N 85.5W.

I am charging the waterproof camera and will post pictures if we start getting any action....

Current conditions: Sunny and dead calm.


SOunds cool. Stay safe.
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1407. mrmombq
Quoting 1400. mrmombq:
Finally getting interesting:

So today is the PEAK of Hurricane season...however since the season is now considered longer it the peak may need to be adjusted to later in Sept also.
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1406. GatorWX
TS Gabrielle
8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 10
Location: 29.9°N 64.9°W
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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1404. GatorWX
Nice blowup over center. If those clouds stay cold awhile, could intensify fairly quick.


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Back wave absorbed....

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looks like ill have to keep my eye out for Gabby's rains..
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Quoting 1389. CaneHunter031472:


60% for the 5 day outlook.


I am located on the island Utila, located just north of the Honduran coast at 16.1N 85.5W.

I am charging the waterproof camera and will post pictures if we start getting any action....

Current conditions: Sunny and dead calm.
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1400. mrmombq
Finally getting interesting:

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Look at EX 98L
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Quoting 1385. CybrTeddy:


A little, or it could be trying to wrap around. Hurricane status by 11pm seems likely.
I say 5pm.
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SLU COULD BE 3 SYSTEMS WITH EX 92L TRYING TO REFIRE.
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I go to bed to rain and i get up to rain!:)
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Good morning,I see Gabrielle is back reminds me of Dorian.Anywyas what a beautiful sight is to see 2 tropical storms and 1 on its way on becoming a hurricane and an Aoi in the Wcar.This is what a hurricane season should be.Also low pressure Obama named by FU-Berlin should pass into Finland and Russia this morning.
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this SCENARIO WITH HUMBERTO REMINDS ME OF THE SAME WITH JOAN OF 1988, WHERE AN ULL IN THE SOUTH WESTERN CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED THE TRACK.
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1393. SLU


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sorry taino hobby comes last. system at 45 w 18n seems like the ex invest is trying to organize
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1391. SLU
For the first time this year we have 2 simultaneous named storms.



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1390. VR46L
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Quoting 1359. utilastormwatch:


Western Caribbean is becoming active... Mid level rotation....


60% for the 5 day outlook.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 182
1388. SLU
Quoting 1385. CybrTeddy:


A little, or it could be trying to wrap around. Hurricane status by 11pm seems likely.


Probably this afternoon is more realistic.

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1387. GatorWX
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THAT ULL IS THE ONE THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF hUMBERTO
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Quoting 1380. bayoubug:
Good morning..Seems that Humberto is getting a little dry air on the NW side..


A little, or it could be trying to wrap around. Hurricane status by 11pm seems likely.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24148
YUP A VEPY CRAZY ONE TO THAT.
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G'morning all. It's about time we got something to track. It's all good as long as they stay out in the ocean!
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1382. GatorWX
Quoting 1370. islander101010:
is that an ul system moving through the leewards? kind of unusual being where it is.


200mb vorticity:



I thought it was odd too.
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Quoting prcane4you:
Where you got that? Some crazy model.
It's already moving WNW....
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Good morning..Seems that Humberto is getting a little dry air on the NW side..
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Quoting islander101010:
even ex whatever looks more organized this morning seems to have its eyes on the leewards.
The Leewards???
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Quoting 1374. Torito:
Look at the beautiful bands!

I'm in love for now.
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even ex whatever looks more organized this morning seems to have its eyes on the leewards.
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1376. VR46L
Quoting 1352. yoboi:


lol I will not comment about that...Good Morning

Good Morning !

LOL ...probably better off not !

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Quoting 1371. stoormfury:
HUMBERTO WILL MISS THE 1ST TROUGH AND CONTINUE WEST.
Where you got that? Some crazy model.
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1374. Torito
Look at the beautiful bands!

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1373. Torito
Humberto looks like a hurricane now.

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1372. Torito
Quoting 1371. stoormfury:
HUMBERTO WILL MISS THE 1ST TROUGH AND CONTINUE WEST.


I don't know, that's a bold prediction you got there..
Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
HUMBERTO WILL MISS THE 1ST TROUGH AND CONTINUE WEST.
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is that an ul system moving through the leewards? kind of unusual being where it is.
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1369. Torito
Quoting 1366. stoormfury:
morning I am yet to see this 90 degree turn by Humberto. at the moment it loos very unrealistic.


it appears to be starting in the last 2 frames of this.

Member Since: April 30, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 4316
1368. Torito
Tropical storm humberto looking good today.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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