A Rare Tropical Cyclone-Free September 8th for Earth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2013

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It's a rare tropical cyclone-free September 8th on Earth, without a tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans. Considering that the first two weeks of September are the peak of the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Pacific, today's lack of activity is quite unusual. It looks like the Atlantic will be the ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell, as a strong tropical wave (Invest 91L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and is now moving west-northwest at 10 mph towards the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show that 91L is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday, and 91L has the potential to intensify into a hurricane by late in the week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day odds of development at 70%, and the 5-day odds at 90%.


Figure 1. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 91L off the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 8, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by the end of the week. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles north of the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 10% and 5-day odds at 30% in their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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1212. CaribBoy
2:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1143. StormTrackerScott:
Add in the MJO which is the strongest since June and watch the Caribbean go BOOM!



or go POOF
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5964
1211. Neapolitan
2:23 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1209. ohzone:
After reading this Time magazine piece on lack of hurricanes this year http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurric ane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/?h pt=hp_t2
it's now clear: global warming both increases the number of hurricanes and decreases the number of hurricanes. The experts all agree to disagree and the moral of this story is NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON. About the only thing you met guys can do with some degree of certainty is identify pending activity, calculate, with a reasonable amount of accurancy wave/storm component activity and exisiting and pending anomolies in a region, and identify upcoming events if the event is in some stage of development. Even a lot of that scientific activity is guesswork. Just because there are clouds overhead does not mean it will rain: that's the gist of this business.
You're confusing scientific uncertainty with lack of knowledge. That's a common mistake, but a pretty large one. If the weather forecast calls for a high of 90 and it only reaches 85, that doesn't mean "NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON". Rather, it simply means the science of weather forecasting, while constantly improving and far more advanced than it was even a few decades ago, still isn't perfect. It may never be; it's possible there are simply too many variables and too much chaos in the system to ever model accurately and to the high degree of precision some would like. But they're trying; they're always trying. And that's a heckuva long way from "NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON". ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13461
1210. hydrus
2:19 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1193. HurricaneAndre:
i say 50 mph at the next advisory.
Sounds good.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20514
1209. ohzone
2:16 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
After reading this Time magazine piece on lack of hurricanes this year http://science.time.com/2013/09/09/a-silent-hurric ane-season-ignites-a-debate-over-global-warming/?h pt=hp_t2
it's now clear: global warming both increases the number of hurricanes and decreases the number of hurricanes. The experts all agree to disagree and the moral of this story is NO ONE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON. About the only thing you met guys can do with some degree of certainty is identify pending activity, calculate, with a reasonable amount of accurancy wave/storm component activity and exisiting and pending anomolies in a region, and identify upcoming events if the event is in some stage of development. Even a lot of that scientific activity is guesswork. Just because there are clouds overhead does not mean it will rain: that's the gist of this business.
Member Since: August 8, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1208. prcane4you
2:15 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1167. hurricanes2018:
where is hummerto going??
Azores with the fish trackers.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
1206. prcane4you
2:12 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1188. HurricaneAndre:
looks like something behind Humberto.
CV Islands?
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
1205. GatorWX
2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
I ain't holding my breathe GT. I want to see that record broke! I hate models anyway, especially intensity ones and especially this year.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2684
1204. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1202. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:10 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1192. SouthernIllinois:

No, silly! For later at my friend Alyssa's pool. Just blowing up my alligator raft right now and thoroughly washing the blender and drink glasses. Some prep time. :) I am out of breath though now!! haha
Cool pool party, hope I'm invited. :D
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7506
1200. prcane4you
2:10 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1169. CaneHunter031472:


Lol.I like the new symbols for this boring things to track.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
1199. GatorWX
2:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1192. SouthernIllinois:

No, silly! For later at my friend Alyssa's pool. Just blowing up my alligator raft right now and thoroughly washing the blender and drink glasses. Some prep time. :) I am out of breath though now!! haha


95ish there today? Sounds like a good frozen drink day :)
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2684
1198. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:09 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Going to be close, if you take the average mean of the highest intensity and the lowest intensity could very well become a minimal Cat. 1 Hurricane before moving into cooler waters.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7506
1197. hydrus
2:08 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1187. ncstorm:
havent been on much but I see 98L was deactivated..but the 00z HWRF still hasnt given up on it..





and a lot of moisture in the GOM/BOC
Things will get very interesting for the U.S. in the next two weeks....Maybe into October.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20514
1196. GatorWX
2:07 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1192. SouthernIllinois:

No, silly! For later at my friend Alyssa's pool. Just blowing up my alligator raft right now and thoroughly washing the blender and drink glasses. Some prep time. :) I am out of breath though now!! haha


Mamma says not ta play wit gators!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2684
1195. hydrus
2:06 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20514
1194. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:05 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
ERAU Daytona Beach, Daytona Beach
Elevation
26 ft
Station Select
Now
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Temperature
83.7 °F
Feels Like 91 °F
Wind(mph)
7.0

Pulled the blinds and the SUN is shinning like a BEAST.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7506
1193. HurricaneAndre
2:04 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1191. hydrus:
i say 50 mph at the next advisory.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2517
1191. hydrus
2:03 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20514
1190. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Just woke up and see we have Tropical Storm Humberto.



Season totals so far. 8/0/0
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7506
1189. GatorWX
2:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1186. SouthernIllinois:

Sunny skies and drinks flowing. That's my forecast. :)


at 10 am? or are you central time? Drinks a plenty down south. I'm on vacation. Only a month to go though :(
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2684
1188. HurricaneAndre
2:00 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1187. ncstorm:
havent been on much but I see 98L was deactivated..but the 00z HWRF still hasnt given up on it..





and a lot of moisture in the GOM/BOC
looks like something behind Humberto.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2517
1187. ncstorm
1:58 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
havent been on much but I see 98L was deactivated..but the 00z HWRF still hasnt given up on it..





and a lot of moisture in the GOM/BOC
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14553
1184. GatorWX
1:55 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1179. SouthernIllinois:

I don't think so. Don't think the CONUS will see trouble. Not this year. The steering pattern isn't favorable.


...at this moment. We're going to likely see troughing on the east coast replaced by ridging and repeating itself every three to five days for at least the short term. Right now there is protection, but that shouldn't be a sign things are going to hang around for long. What's your forecast for the week? Warm and then cooler?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2684
1183. opal92nwf
1:53 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2344
1182. IKE
1:53 PM GMT on September 09, 2013

Quoting CaneHunter031472:


lol
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1181. opal92nwf
1:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Lot of other waves lined up over Africa.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2344
1180. StormWx
1:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Looking like a 2010 steering pattern both in the Caribbean and the Central Atlantic so that's great news!!


Maybe for the US of A :o) but those people in the islands may not fare so well mon.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 900
1178. hydrus
1:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20514
1177. StormWx
1:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Pattern coming up favors this. Big Ridge up north in September means trouble in the Caribbean.


Oh no i hope not Scottie!! I dont like trouble.
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 900
1176. Doss2k
1:45 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
While it appears Humberto is headed out to sea, it is at least nice to see something out there that looks like an organized storm... unlike the last few.
Member Since: August 15, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
1175. hurricanes2018
1:44 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
San Francisco Area Wildfire: Dozens of Homes Evacuated
CLAYTON, Calif. — A wildfire burning in a San Francisco Bay Area wilderness park led to the evacuation of several dozen homes.

The blaze broke out amid temperatures near triple digits in early afternoon on the edge of Mt. Diablo State Park in Contra Costa County about 15 miles northeast of San Francisco, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said in a statement.

By nightfall it had surged to 800 acres, state fire officials said, spewing a plume of smoke visible for miles around and leading to the evacuation Sunday of 50 to 75 homes in Clayton, a town of about 11,000 people alongside the park.

"I could just see it moving toward us," resident Ann Hyde, who lives about 2 ½ miles from the spot where the fire started, told the San Francisco Chronicle. "The embers are all over the place and they make me nervous.... We've never had anything this big before."

Though not far from more densely populated parts of the Bay Area, the threatened homes were on sparsely populated properties dotted with animal pens and shooting ranges.

Karen Cooper, who works at a kennel in the area, said she had safely evacuated 20 dogs, but two of her horses, named Butter and Pineapple, were missing.

"It's been intense," Cooper told the Contra Costa Times.

An evacuation center was established at Clayton Community Library.

About 250 firefighters from several surrounding agencies were struggling with tough, steep terrain. With help from four planes and three helicopters they had the blaze 10 percent contained.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13599
1174. CaneHunter031472
1:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1173. GatorWX:


Haven't seen that graphic. lol


I added my special touch to it. Pretty much resembles the truth. I hope.
Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
1173. GatorWX
1:38 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1169. CaneHunter031472:




Haven't seen that graphic. lol
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2684
1172. GatorWX
1:38 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1168. biff4ugo:
Thanks Gator,

That is the best animation of Africa, I have seen.


Pat posted it awhile back. It's the best I know of and updated hourly.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2684
1171. hurricanes2018
1:36 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13599
1170. hurricanes2018
1:35 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Humberto its starting to move wnw now
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13599
1169. CaneHunter031472
1:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1167. hurricanes2018:
where is hummerto going??


Member Since: August 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
1168. biff4ugo
1:31 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Thanks Gator,

That is the best animation of Africa, I have seen.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1548
1167. hurricanes2018
1:28 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1159. HurricaneAndre:
What's the best for Humberto.
where is hummerto going??
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13599
1166. SLU
1:27 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
SAL

12:00 PM 82.4 °F 90.9 °F 77.0 °F 84% 29.89 in 6.2 mi ENE 24.2 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4878
1165. mikatnight
1:25 PM GMT on September 09, 2013



Interesting how the high tries to build back in.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1163. CybrTeddy
1:17 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
Quoting 1162. SouthernIllinois:

Looking like a 2010 steering pattern both in the Caribbean and the Central Atlantic so that's great news!!


Not if you live in the Caribbean or central America, 2010 was devastating to them.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23590

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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