A Rare Tropical Cyclone-Free September 8th for Earth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2013

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It's a rare tropical cyclone-free September 8th on Earth, without a tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans. Considering that the first two weeks of September are the peak of the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Pacific, today's lack of activity is quite unusual. It looks like the Atlantic will be the ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell, as a strong tropical wave (Invest 91L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and is now moving west-northwest at 10 mph towards the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show that 91L is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday, and 91L has the potential to intensify into a hurricane by late in the week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day odds of development at 70%, and the 5-day odds at 90%.


Figure 1. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 91L off the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 8, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by the end of the week. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles north of the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 10% and 5-day odds at 30% in their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1107. MahFL:
Nice cooler temps the last few days in NE FL. All this week less than 90 F is forecast.
If it's slightly cooler than normal in your neck of the woods, enjoy it, because unless you live in the Pacific Northwest, chances are it won't last long:

cpc

cpc
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1111. GatorWX
Quoting 1108. SLU:
...RAINBANDS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 9
Location: 13.4�N 23.3�W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


1005mb and 40 mph?? Sounds like a bit of an anomaly.
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1110. SLU
Winds at SAL are under 20kts

8:00 AM 80.6 F 87.1 F 77.0 F 89% 29.86 in 4.3 mi NE 16.1 mph - N/A Scattered Clouds
9:00 AM 78.8 F - 77.0 F 94% 29.89 in 1.9 mi NE 17.3 mph - N/A Rain , Thunderstorm Thunderstorms and Rain
10:00 AM 77.0 F - 75.2 F 94% 29.89 in 5.0 mi ENE 18.4 mph - N/A Rain Rain
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
1109. beell
Well, at least one active station reporting METARs in the NE corner of the Cape Verde archipelago. On the island of Sal.

GVAC
Station Elevation: 54 m

This is about 200 nm NNW of the 8AM AST position posted by SLU (below).



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1108. SLU
...RAINBANDS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 9
Location: 13.4N 23.3W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
1107. MahFL
Quoting 1086. PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin Gator. That wv shot looks a lot more like late Oct or early Nov than middle of Sept.


Nice cooler temps the last few days in NE FL. All this week less than 90 F is forecast.
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1106. GatorWX
And morning to you Doug!
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1105. GatorWX
Quoting 1086. PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin Gator. That wv shot looks a lot more like late Oct or early Nov than middle of Sept.


I know. Still just as warm and muggy out there though. Fairly stable atmosphere however. Brief thunderstorms locally yesterday, but that trough has really progressed south since then.
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1104. GatorWX
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2013 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 13:26:37 N Lon : 23:05:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1009.8mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.6 2.6

Center Temp : -8.4C Cloud Region Temp : -42.4C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : MSG3
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.9 degrees
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so tough for them to form in the west atlantic this yr. the switch is on but we need something to ignite it
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Land-blob over MN-ND-SD area.

Also: does Humberto have any type of a CDO yet?
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Humberto is obviously more intense than 35kts at this point. Visible satellite imagery will be very helpful in locating the center this morning to see if it really is as far east as ADT is estimating.
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1099. IKE
Lower 48 looks safe for the foreseeable future. Humbertooo the first cane of the season. A fish after the Cape Verdes. Is Jim Cantore there?

Day 101. 82 days to go.

Totals.....

8-0-0. Plus another TD.
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1098. beell
Quoting 1088. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!



Just a smidge of SAL to the north of Humberto.
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Florida has it's shield up!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 647
A good Monday to everyone...

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1095. Torito
Humbertooooooooooooooooooooo


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Quoting 1091. pie314271:
Huberto formed a few hours in advance, making this possibility. This might become a cat 2, and in the rarest case of it reach the U.S...


No way this is coming back that far west!

I'll eat crow if it does tho.
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Humberto becomes another Gaston....
No comments on the blog until December 1st.

Everyone goes into field position behind their computers.
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Huberto formed a few hours in advance, making this possibility. This might become a cat 2, and in the rarest case of it reach the U.S...
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Quoting 1088. Ameister12:
Good morning everybody!



Next two CVs are lowriders... smooth sailin all the way W.
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Good morning everybody!

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
Good morning all. Looks like more rain here in Nassau, but Gabrielle's remnant seems headed away from us, so I'll take it!

Hope you all have a good week, and I am watching this Humberto to see if we get a bang or a whimper... LOL

Later, all.
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G'mornin Gator. That wv shot looks a lot more like late Oct or early Nov than middle of Sept.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 647
Good morning. I see we have Humberto. :)And that the cone now shows a 90mph storm before weakening..
Everybody Happy Happy Happy
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Quoting 1066. Civicane49:
57 hours



For you TX lurkers out there, there are a number of models suggesting a Hermine II in a few days. That bright little spark in the WGOM might be it, it may have crossed.



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1083. GatorWX
Hope you enjoy watching those people. Don't be late for the bus now.
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Good Morning! See we've gone up to 90 mph this morning. Still going West at 11 mph. Hmmmm.. Don't almost all models have it NW by now? I guess we'll see how long this west movement holds.
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1075. GatorWX
Morning!



73.5 F, 97% RH, 73 F DP, 30% chance of rain
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Quoting 1070. prcane4you:
A big fish to track that going nowhere


Yep, for those of us fascinated with the formation, tracking, etc of hurricanes, a big fish track going nowhere (out to sea not damaging property or killing people) is preferable to: (1) a storm that makes landfall and destroys property, causes floods and kills people and animals or (2) nothing to track.
So...POOF to you troll.
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 71 and feels like 76 degrees, expecting another 96 degree day with heat index around 100.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: traditional omelet with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, eggs and hash brown, cheesy grits and shrimp, sausage links and/or bacon,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
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87 hours

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06z GFS shows Humberto becoming a Category 2 hurricane by 69 hours.



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Good morning all. Looks like we might finally have a big-un brewing out in the Atlantic. Hopefully, he just stays over water and we can enjoy watching him blossom into a classic hurricane. Looks like we can celebrate the peak of hurricane season tomorrow after all. Guess the season is not a bust after all. Bustcasters...crow is tastier battered and deep fried! LOL
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57 hours

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989 mb at 45 hours

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First visible satellite image of Humberto. Satellite presentation looks rather impressive.

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06z GFS is running.

15 hours

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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