A Rare Tropical Cyclone-Free September 8th for Earth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2013

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It's a rare tropical cyclone-free September 8th on Earth, without a tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans. Considering that the first two weeks of September are the peak of the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Pacific, today's lack of activity is quite unusual. It looks like the Atlantic will be the ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell, as a strong tropical wave (Invest 91L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and is now moving west-northwest at 10 mph towards the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show that 91L is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday, and 91L has the potential to intensify into a hurricane by late in the week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day odds of development at 70%, and the 5-day odds at 90%.


Figure 1. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 91L off the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 8, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by the end of the week. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles north of the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 10% and 5-day odds at 30% in their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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1160. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Humberto..

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What's the best for Humberto.
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1158. GatorWX
Quoting 1156. AussieStorm:


The MJO was strong in the EPAC end of August but skipped the ATL. What makes you think it won't happen next time round?

There is a pulse of the MJO in the ATL right now.



The Gulf and Western Caribbean have been fairly moist all season. It doesn't seem that'd be completely necessary here imo.
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1157. GatorWX
Quoting 1152. StormTrackerScott:


Pattern coming up favors this. Big Ridge up north in September means trouble in the Caribbean.


I noted earlier, 99 in Minneapolis today. 90 in Boston on Wednesday.

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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Add in the MJO which is the strongest since June and watch the Caribbean go BOOM!



The MJO was strong in the EPAC end of August but skipped the ATL. What makes you think it won't happen next time round?

There is a pulse of the MJO in the ATL right now.

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1155. Patrap
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I'm sure the downcasters will be searching for strings on how this will end up being slow when that obivously isn't going to be the case now.
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Good Morning!
7:09 am (11:09 GMT)

You know what they say,
"Pink sky at morning...
Sailors think the hurricane season is boring."

Or words to that effect.


Ah, my little son with my little sun...


...sings a song!

Woohoo! Got a wet n wild four hundredths of an inch of rain last night. We be jammin'...



Have a wonderful, wonderful All - catch ya on the flip...
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Quoting 1149. GatorWX:


Thinking it's going to time to strap on some riding boots soon. It only seems logical something will take advantage of all that heat, especially in the Western Caribbean. Gulf is warm, but with all the rain and cloud cover early on, it's not overly anomalous. The wcarib however, different story. I would not be surprised at all to see a storm threaten the West Coast of Florida or the Northern Gulf Coast. Seems to me to be just a matter of time. Just needs a seed.


Pattern coming up favors this. Big Ridge up north in September means trouble in the Caribbean.
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MOISTURE DEEPENS THU AS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 42W (FORMER
INVEST 98L) APPROACHES THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE HOLDING
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ATLC ALTHOUGH TC DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT
.
ANYWAY...SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME ACTIVE WX LATE IN THE WEEK.

TIRED WITH THAT, REALLY!!!!
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1149. GatorWX
Quoting 1144. StormTrackerScott:
Tropics aren't looking dull anymore I see!



Thinking it's going to time to strap on some riding boots soon. It only seems logical something will take advantage of all that heat, especially in the Western Caribbean. Gulf is warm, but with all the rain and cloud cover early on, it's not overly anomalous. The wcarib however, different story. I would not be surprised at all to see a storm threaten the West Coast of Florida or the Northern Gulf Coast. Seems to me to be just a matter of time. Just needs a seed.
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Quoting 1145. MahFL:


Always 384 hours out lol.


Doesn't matter what you think it's all about the pattern as a massive Ridge across New England & SE Canada is a classic set up tropical development in the Caribbean.
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I WANT TO SEE an humberto near my area, beautiful TS!
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1146. MahFL
Quoting 1144. StormTrackerScott:
Tropics aren't looking dull anymore I see!



Looks pretty dull to me.
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1145. MahFL
Quoting 1142. StormTrackerScott:
Long Range models insist an active Caribbean and Gulf over the next 2 weeks plus...


Always 384 hours out lol.
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Tropics aren't looking dull anymore I see!

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Add in the MJO which is the strongest since June and watch the Caribbean go BOOM!

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Long Range models insist an active Caribbean and Gulf over the next 2 weeks plus. Bad situation to be in if you live in FL as it is seeming likely that we may have a powerful system coming at FL from the SW.

The reason for this is this big massive high that is creating all of this record heat across the Midwest is forecast to slide East toward New England & SE Canada creating lower pressures across the Gulf & Caribbean.

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1141. SLU
09/1200 UTC 13.6N 23.6W T2.5/2.5 HUMBERTO -- Atlantic
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1140. ncstorm
Good Morning..

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Still T2.5 from the SAB.
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1137. GatorWX
Click for loop. Very nice satellite of Africa if you don't have it.

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1136. GatorWX
Quoting 1135. Bluestorm5:
There is one for E. Atlantic that Levi got on his site, but something went wrong with that loop just earlier this week so that loop is gone. What a wrong week...


haha, yes, perfect timing.
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Quoting 1128. GatorWX:
Is there a good rapid scan floater for it?
There is one for E. Atlantic that Levi got on his site, but something went wrong with that loop just earlier this week so that loop is gone. What a wrong week...
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1134. GatorWX
I have this, but not a floater.
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I see Humberto is still on track to become a hurricane. Lets see if it lasts more than 12 hours.

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1131. vis0
11-12 days (ani created yesterday. Lets keep on eye on ANYTHING that survives till that period of ~2 weeks that begins Sept ~19-21. Its not simply a "season" change its a change as to the angle of certain energies that bathe this solar system from space. Try these http://guardianlv.com/2013/09/shifting-interstell ar-wind-shows-larger-implications/
(SOURCE1 SOURCE2 SOURCE3) reads as nutty as mt theories but explained very well. The articles sources are 3 at the end of the article (also theories as to a science i call Galacsics on my blog, but when you read my pgs. think of it as a badly written sci-fi..)
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1130. SLU
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1128. GatorWX
Is there a good rapid scan floater for it?
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1127. GatorWX
1123
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1126. SLU
Quoting 1118. GatorWX:


No way the pressure is <1005mb, which that would suggest. That's quite removed from the center. I wouldn't be as surprised to see winds in some of the outer bands 40-50, but in gusts most likely.


The cloud pattern suggests a cyclone stronger than 40mph.
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Shouldn't be any issue with Humberto until he it colder water and drier environment.

SHIP at 6z for Humberto
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1124. SLU
SAL

11:00 AM 78.8 °F - 75.2 °F 89% 29.89 in 6.2 mi ENE 21.9 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
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1123. GatorWX
Quoting 1118. GatorWX:


No way the pressure is <1005mb, which that would suggest. That's quite removed from the center. I wouldn't be as surprised to see winds in some of the outer bands 40-50, but in gusts most likely.


For whatever reason, I glanced fast thinking it was a reporting station lol. I suppose 50 is certainly in the realm. I still have a hard time thinking it's going to blowup out there into a large system.

I haven't been paying much, if any, attention to it so far.
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And the incredible bust rolls on...7-0-0. But wait. Humberto has hit a line drive to east Atlantic where the forecast is bobbled. He's not letting up at all. He's making a run strait for cain...... This storm can make records happen out there.................



From one of my favorite songs
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bad grammar early in the morning... ugh. Figured it out on the third read.

It looks like the Atlantic will be THE ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell. , as A strong tropical wave (Invest 91L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and is now moving west-northwest at 10 mph toward the Cape Verde Islands.

That GFS IR Simulation is how I imagine future 'casting will look, weird and a little fuzzy.

I guess my grammar isn't any better, but it is early here.
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The models have been so unbelievable this season that I still don't believe Humberto will will traverse the open atlantic. my take is that the storm will not intensify as the models are suggesting at this stage. what I am seeing is Humberto will continue west for awhile being under the influence of the strong ULL to it's west at 55W.
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1118. GatorWX
Quoting 1115. SLU:


Yeah, I believe the winds are closer to 50mph.


No way the pressure is <1005mb, which that would suggest. That's quite removed from the center. I wouldn't be as surprised to see winds in some of the outer bands 40-50, but in gusts most likely.
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1117. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 091154
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE DISPLACING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW AROUND THAT TIME IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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000
WTNT34 KNHC 091140
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
800 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...RAINBANDS FROM HUMBERTO MOVING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 23.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.3 WEST.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL PASS
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND PASS WEST OF THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
HUMBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFFECTING THE ISLANDS
OF MAIO AND SANTIAGO...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS
OF FOGO AND BRAVA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

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1115. SLU
Quoting 1111. GatorWX:


1005mb and 40 mph?? Sounds like a bit of an anomaly.


Yeah, I believe the winds are closer to 50mph.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5375
1114. GatorWX
Quoting 1112. Neapolitan:
If it's slightly cooler than normal in your neck of the woods, enjoy it, because unless you live in the Pacific Northwest, chances are it won't last long:

cpc

cpc


99 forecast in Minneapolis today. That's a big high out west.
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1113. GatorWX
Quoting 1107. MahFL:


Nice cooler temps the last few days in NE FL. All this week less than 90 F is forecast.


Yesterday morning was 71, best we were going here. 73.5 today. 95-100% every morning though, so.... Not too dry at the surface.
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Quoting 1107. MahFL:
Nice cooler temps the last few days in NE FL. All this week less than 90 F is forecast.
If it's slightly cooler than normal in your neck of the woods, enjoy it, because unless you live in the Pacific Northwest, chances are it won't last long:

cpc

cpc
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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