A Rare Tropical Cyclone-Free September 8th for Earth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2013

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It's a rare tropical cyclone-free September 8th on Earth, without a tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans. Considering that the first two weeks of September are the peak of the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Pacific, today's lack of activity is quite unusual. It looks like the Atlantic will be the ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell, as a strong tropical wave (Invest 91L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and is now moving west-northwest at 10 mph towards the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show that 91L is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday, and 91L has the potential to intensify into a hurricane by late in the week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day odds of development at 70%, and the 5-day odds at 90%.


Figure 1. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 91L off the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 8, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Wednesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by the end of the week. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle (now being called Invest 92L) are generating heavy thunderstorms about 400 miles north of the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 10% and 5-day odds at 30% in their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the northeast at 10 mph, and is expected to pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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X-98L...Looks like a sheard "center" is trying to form...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12055
Quoting 705. Astrometeor:


I thought it was September 10? Mine's better, btw, average of the two.


Back around 1990 the New York Times in their articles about hurricane season would say the peak was tied between September 11th & 12th.
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Quoting 694. psetas23:
Im really telling everyone look out Florida gfs and I say tropical storm or hurricane will hit in 2 weeks



I beleive the entire Gulf coast is more likely to see tropical landfalling system, given the deepening trough digging in from the north and sliding SE than anywhere else in the CONUS. Levi hinted this in his tropical tidbits yesterday. The Western Caribbean and the GOMEX appear to be the likliest region for tropical development within the next two weeks.
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Quoting 702. Tropicsweatherpr:
Up to 30kts.

AL, 09, 2013090900, , BEST, 0, 131N, 214W, 30, 1006, TD


Alright.35 mph... A bit closer to HUMBERTO
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Quoting 699. GeoffreyWPB:


Your take has not been to good lately. How many Coors Light tonight? :)


Do you really have to rub it in to the fresh wounds :)), I have in a few but who's counting, yesterday was my 28th Wedding Anniversary and today is my brother 56 birthday, so a little celebrating is in order. :)), may be one day my take will be more accurate! Peace my friend.
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00z Guidance.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC MON SEP 9 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092013) 20130909 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130909 0000 130909 1200 130910 0000 130910 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.1N 21.4W 13.4N 22.6W 14.4N 24.3W 15.7N 26.6W
BAMD 13.1N 21.4W 13.3N 23.3W 13.9N 25.0W 14.8N 26.5W
BAMM 13.1N 21.4W 13.6N 23.3W 14.3N 25.2W 15.2N 27.3W
LBAR 13.1N 21.4W 13.3N 23.7W 13.9N 26.3W 14.8N 28.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 49KTS 65KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 49KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130911 0000 130912 0000 130913 0000 130914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 29.0W 17.4N 31.9W 19.7N 29.2W 24.1N 29.2W
BAMD 16.1N 27.8W 19.7N 30.1W 23.0N 31.3W 25.3N 31.0W
BAMM 16.0N 28.9W 17.9N 30.9W 20.9N 29.3W 24.6N 28.5W
LBAR 16.1N 31.0W 20.1N 34.0W 24.9N 34.3W 27.6N 32.8W
SHIP 80KTS 98KTS 96KTS 79KTS
DSHP 80KTS 98KTS 96KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 21.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 19.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 17.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Tight resolution. Yowza.

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Quoting 701. BaltimoreBrian:


So September 9th is the real peak now?

Back in my college days the peak was September 11th.


I thought it was September 10? Mine's better, btw, average of the two.
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Quoting 685. airmet3:
please provide some insight into your prediction besides IMHO.

BTW, is forecast prediction redundant?


Yes, a bit redundant, but it's like Accuweather. Paradoxical name for the company.

Speaking of Accuweather, their 28-day forecast (or whatever they released that announcement of the 45-day thing) was completely wrong for my birthday.

Their forecast: T-storm in morning, high of 83.
Actual: Clear all day, high of 89.
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The GFS in two weeks. The storm in the gulf subsequently goes into Mexico in this run.

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Up to 30kts.

AL, 09, 2013090900, , BEST, 0, 131N, 214W, 30, 1006, TD
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Quoting 585. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tomorrow is the busiest day of the Atlantic hurricane season as measured by daily Accumulated Cyclone Energy, per Ryan Maue.




So September 9th is the real peak now?

Back in my college days the peak was September 11th.
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Quoting 694. psetas23:
Im really telling everyone look out Florida gfs and I say tropical storm or hurricane will hit in 2 weeks



Key words are in bold. Not much else to say.
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Quoting 696. stormpetrol:
ex-98L looks impressive tonight, also the little blow up south of Hispaniola which I think is the original remnant of Gabrielle and what they're calling 92L is actually the TW that was NE of Gabrielle stealing its energy. I think the remainder of the 2013 could get real interesting. Just my take.


Your take has not been to good lately. How many Coors Light tonight? :)
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12055
Quoting 685. airmet3:
please provide some insight into your prediction besides IMHO.

BTW, is forecast prediction redundant?


even though many "got it" you were the only person to bring up the "forecast prediction" thing. We know what the poster meant and they can make any prediction they want w/o having to explain it. Many make blanket predictions.
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Im really telling everyone look out Florida gfs and I say tropical storm or hurricane will hit in 2 weeks

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ex-98L looks impressive tonight, also the little blow up south of Hispaniola which I think is the original remnant of Gabrielle and what they're calling 92L is actually the TW that was NE of Gabrielle stealing its energy. I think the remainder of the 2013 HS could get real interesting. Just my take.
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Quoting 677. meteorite:
i think that on or abouts september 24th we will have a cat 1 to cat 3 storm possibly affectting the east coast

And the basis for this prediction is...?
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Im really telling everyone look out Florida gfs and I say tropical storm or hurricane will hit in 2 weeks

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T.D 9 will be a tropical storm by Monday morning
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129842
Quoting 688. Tazmanian:





you guys are free too post what evere you want now


post them has march has you want



I go in too lurk mode in tell we have no storms too track


Why go into lurk mode when there is a storm? This place is more fun when there's a storm
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hey Aussie...

There are but the NHC does not highlight them in their graphics.
Same thing to the Azores


Yeah, just noticed the same with Erin.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAS DEVELOPED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE
TO A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
THE AZORES...AND THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD
FROM AFRICA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN RATHER
SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE THAT
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURPRISINGLY...
THE LARGEST SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE OCCURS WITHIN THE FIRST
48 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONVERGE BY 72 HOURS. THE
NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

A MOIST AIR MASS...WARM WATERS...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST GRADUALLY DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE AFTER 24 HOURS. SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE TENDED TO
HAVE A HIGH BIAS THIS HURRICANE SEASON...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS KEPT A BIT LOWER. THE FORECAST DOES...HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THE
CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST...AND THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW BIG THE WIND FIELD
WILL GET ONCE THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 154 Comments: 129842
Quoting 681. Relix:
So, 91L will surely go out to sea?


After it passes the Cape Verde Islands (population 499,000)
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Quoting 687. wxchaser97:

Maybe if we posted the advisories more than once people would know if we have a TC or not, or the percentages of AOI's are. :-)





you guys are free too post what evere you want now


post them has march has you want



I go in too lurk mode in tell we have no storms too track
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5096 Comments: 116626
Quoting 682. Tazmanian:



TD 9

Maybe if we posted the advisories more than once people would know if we have a TC or not, or the percentages of AOI's are. :-)
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686. Relix
Quoting 682. Tazmanian:



TD 9


I am not used to seeing named systems this season, mostly Invests haha!
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Quoting 670. meteorite:
Can i make a forcast prediction?
please provide some insight into your prediction besides IMHO.

BTW, is forecast prediction redundant?
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Quoting 681. Relix:
So, 91L will surely go out to sea?


Yes. TD 9 will not affect you.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 12055
683. beell
Sloooowwwww through 72 hrs at least.

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Quoting 681. Relix:
So, 91L will surely go out to sea?



TD 9
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5096 Comments: 116626
681. Relix
So, 91L will surely go out to sea?
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679. SLU
8:00 PM AST Sun Sep 8
Location: 13.1°N 21.4°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5537
Good to see you Sheri. I had considered that too.. I have no answer, I know there has been some discussion about that sort of thing, but cannot recall what was said. I think it is very likely that we, as a herd about to be culled, are about to enter some very interesting times weather wise.
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Quoting 663. AussieStorm:


poof you go.... lol


Why no TS watches or warnings for the CV Islands?


Hey Aussie...

There are but the NHC does not highlight them in their graphics.
Same thing to the Azores
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Quoting 670. meteorite:
Can i make a forcast prediction?


You certainly may.
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No Increase in Intensity.
...RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM AST Sun Sep 8
Location: 13.1°N 21.4°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph

Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 1522
Quoting 670. meteorite:
Can i make a forcast prediction?


Have at it!
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Woohoo! TD9 looks like our first Atlantic hurricane - and it ain't coming toward Northwest Florida!
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Quoting 670. meteorite:
Can i make a forcast prediction?

Yeah, sure. But you got to be prepared to get yelled at if your forecast is too out of the ordinary. People don't take too kindly to different opinions around here.
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Biggest thing about this TWO Update is the likelihood of another BOC System is going up.
OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 1522
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW
DAYS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&
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Quoting 663. AussieStorm:


poof you go.... lol


Why no TS watches or warnings for the CV Islands?

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34481
Quoting 661. catastropheadjuster:
This is just a off the wall question, I was wondering since we had a pretty long winter, well i mean the winter hung around a little bit longer and with summer not kicking in like usual, could that make the hurricane season come in a little later than usual?

sheri
Well good question.I talked about this earlier.Last year in 2012 summer came early.So we had a jump start to hurricane season since the jet stream was already well into canada.This year as you mentioned we had a late winter.So it could have attributed some.2013 has been a late bloomer in just about almost every weather category.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19587
Quoting 656. washingtonian115:
Did somebody say bust?.Batman doesn't like that.lol


I think the Joker might have something to do with the lack of hurricanes this season.

Let's get Batman to do some interrogating. :P
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS ELONGATED...AND
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
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Quoting CaribBoy:


BORED! BORED!! BORED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


poof you go.... lol


Why no TS watches or warnings for the CV Islands?
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662. beell
Quoting 640. NCHurricane2009:
I just did a special update because of the recent developments with Ex-Gabrielle and also because of TD 9 (soon to be Humberto). I gave my reasoning for predicting a category 2 Humberto....

How many think Humberto will peak as...
(a) Tropical Storm
(b) Cat 1 Hurricane
(c) Cat 2 Hurricane
(d) Major Hurricane (Cat 3+)


C.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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