Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

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Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1172. 62901IL
Quoting 1169. Astrometeor:


Nice hurricane to T. storm ratio there.

Taz is talking about his revised forecast. We're already at 7-0-0, lol, so both your's and mine can't be statistically met anymore. Unless things went real quiet for the rest of the season (don't jinx it Astro).

What was yours again?
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Now I have a problem... TD8 could really have been a storm... I have to delay the results and the winners until the Post analysts for td8 comes out... Darn
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I'm thinking we'll see around 13-14 named storms, 3-4 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes for a season total. The Gulf of Mexico -- specifically the Bay of Campeche -- has been the place to be this season and there are no signs of that changing. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at 1 or 2 cyclones coming from that region over the next two weeks. The MJO should leave the Atlantic next week, putting it back in Octants 8 and 1 by early October. We should see a good bit of activity then since the MJO matters a lot more in October than it does in the peak months of August and September.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
Quoting 1158. 62901IL:

Mine is 8-7-1


Nice hurricane to T. storm ratio there.

Taz is talking about his revised forecast. We're already at 7-0-0, lol, so both your's and mine can't be statistically met anymore. Unless things went real quiet for the rest of the season (don't jinx it Astro).
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Quoting 1147. wunderkidcayman:
trHUrrIXC5MMX
check mail


Ok...
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1167. will40
i will give mine after the season is over. it will be more accurate then
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Quoting 1159. GatorWX:


Sounds good to me. I don't remember seeing it tossed around. I guess I really wasn't on much early this season. That was assembled July 1st?


I began talking and adding people in since March 10... Yeah, for over 3 months

Did you miss this?
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1165. sar2401
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Hurricane Wilma formed in the western carribean with strong cold fronts diving down the East coast and GOM.
This (strong cold front pushing off shore into the GOM) will basically shut down the season for Texas, but could aid in the development of systems affecting Florida.
Frequently shown map - strong cold fronts just prior to hurricane Wilma.

Yes, I've seen the Wilma/cold front analogy many times, but there was a lot more happening than a cold front. This was 2005, and the Caribbean was like a cauldron of disturbed weather. Wilma formed in Jamaica and was already a cat 5 by the time it got to the Yucatan. There were two ridges to its north that allowed Wilma to meander around the Caribbean and intensify into a large and dangerous storm. One it got into the Gulf after crossing the Yucatan, and survived as a strong cat 2 after two landfalls, then it got interesting. The cold front turned Wilma toward the eastern Gulf and acted like a highway, so it increased forward speed and overcome some significant wind shear. Still, in the grand scheme of things, the cold front in the Gulf was a bit player.

I think the chances of another Wilma (especially this year) are vanishingly low. My concern is another Fernand type storm, a piece of junk on its own, but with the cold front providing just enough energy to pull it away from land and spin it up into a TS or hurricane. If anything is going to come from the Gulf this year, I suspect this will be the approximate scenario. In 2005, we just sat here and wondered how long it would be before almost every depression became a hurricane. In 2013, we just here and wonder if any depression will ever become a hurricane. ;-)
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1164. GatorWX
Here's my mid-season forecast then, 12, 3, 1
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Either everyone's predictions will be too high or too low. Those are going to bust too, and be higher than u think. U always underestimate it .
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Quoting 1130. Dakster:


Not that I care because I will be incorrect... But I posted my 'forecast' in your blogand I noticed it is not including in your graphic. At least I remember doing that.


Did you tell me before or after July 1st?
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1161. 62901IL
.
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Quoting 1158. 62901IL:

Mine is 8-7-1




we are not going too see 7 hurricanes this year or even 1 cat 3 this year you are going too be way off
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1159. GatorWX
Quoting 1144. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I want you to try it next year... As many else who did not this year
:)


Sounds good to me. I don't remember seeing it tossed around. I guess I really wasn't on much early this season. That was assembled July 1st?
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1158. 62901IL
Quoting 1155. Tazmanian:



mine is 9-1-0

Mine is 8-7-1
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Quoting 1117. sar2401:

The LGEM and SHIPS have been blowing intensity forecasts all season. I don't think the LGEM had one invest that it didn't forecast to make hurricane status. Both forecast Gabby to get to cat 2! Seriously, if these two models were a product customers had to buy, about how many sales do you think they'd have this year? How many models do we have now? 20? 25? Maybe it's time for some kind of science summit, pick out the top five, and work on improving them, instead of just churning out more blown models.

That's because the LGEM and SHIPS are only meant to be used after a tropical cyclone has been designated. Historically, the LGEM has been the best statistical intensity model out there.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32877
1156. Melagoo
Quoting 1152. Hurricane614:
I see 91L is up to 70 and 90 percent. I think this one will be interesting to watch in the coming days.



which way will it go ... which way will it go ... which way will it go ...
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Quoting 1149. weatherlover94:



Even I busted on my 12,6,3......my new forecast to date is.... 9,2,0



mine is 8-1-0
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting 1146. Astrometeor:


Unless there is a blogger named "Pakster", I believe that is a spelling mistake for you. I told him about all the spelling mistakes in there, and he still didn't fix them. Sheesh.


And it's great to have a messenger ragging you in the ear
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Quoting 1142. hydrus:
Yep..The rest of the basin made up for it in spades. I am wondering if the lack luster Cape Verde season may have some how increased activity throughout the basin, or if it would have been even more active if the the region off Western Africa had produced more storms.
One thing that seemed different that year was the vortices seemed to line up from 850 mb to 500mb much easier than this year, leading to quicker and stronger development.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
I see 91L is up to 70 and 90 percent. I think this one will be interesting to watch in the coming days.

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1151. SLU
Looking good

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1150. hydrus
Quoting 1141. 47n91w:
Relatively calm today on the south shore of Lake Superior, but a bit chilly with 10:30 temps around 60 degrees.

From the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore:

I was on Lake Superior a lot in 1985...Loved it..Almost killed us tho..
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Quoting 1132. Tazmanian:




we all busted on that forcast lol



Even I busted on my 12,6,3......my new forecast to date is.... 9,2,0
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Yes, this year could be an El Nino in disquise. Or, peak season might be two weeks late this year. One thing that has a big effect that no one can predict is the influence of ULL's. They create shear and they might cause more dry air to infiltrate the MDR.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2109
trHUrrIXC5MMX
check mail
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Quoting 1130. Dakster:


Not that I care because I will be incorrect... But I posted my 'forecast' in your blogand I noticed it is not including in your graphic. At least I remember doing that.


Unless there is a blogger named "Pakster", I believe that is a spelling mistake for you. I told him about all the spelling mistakes in there, and he still didn't fix them. Sheesh.
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Quoting 1139. mrmombq:
How far back do we go to find the "peak" being Sept 10th, I mean if the climate has been changing and the Hurricane season is now longer could the peak actually be later than Sept 10th?


Logical that it would be later. Maybe the graph needs an update.
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Quoting 1134. GatorWX:


That's awesome!


I want you to try it next year... As many else who did not this year
:)
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Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st


I should contribute next year.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
1142. hydrus
Quoting 993. washingtonian115:
I do know that in 2005 the rain forest was very dry.In fact one of the driest on record which could explain the lack luster cape verde storm season that year.
Yep..The rest of the basin made up for it in spades. I am wondering if the lack luster Cape Verde season may have some how increased activity throughout the basin, or if it would have been even more active if the the region off Western Africa had produced more storms.
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1141. 47n91w
Relatively calm today on the south shore of Lake Superior, but a bit chilly with 10:30 temps around 60 degrees with a forecast high in the upper 60s.

From the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st
Astro is the closest so far, followed by Birthmark and AtHome.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8774
1139. mrmombq
Quoting 1112. PalmBeachWeather:
September 10 has been the peak day for years....I would say late September if I had my say.
How far back do we go to find the "peak" being Sept 10th, I mean if the climate has been changing and the Hurricane season is now longer could the peak actually be later than Sept 10th?
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Quoting 1106. PalmBeachWeather:
A usual day I see yonz....Lived in Edinburgh until I was 6 years old...Try to make a visit every few years...Many of my family is still there (on my Mom's side RIP)


The big news from Edinburgh at the moment is that the zoo's giant panda is believed to be pregnant. They've even flown in experts from Memphis, Tennessee, to assist them in confirming the pregnancy. Quite a ballyhoo about it all. Well, it gets the visitors coming in.

Link
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1137. SLU
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st


lol. we are all struggling.
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Quoting 1102. CybrTeddy:


Great, another overly warm winter for Florida. I'm calling it now, it'll be in the 80s in December, and I'll probably have a massive fever sometime soon from what will almost guaranteed be another bad flu season.


Florida gets the flu? I thought that was only for cold places.

What's worked for me for years: Wash hands with soap.
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we know invest 92L GOING OUT TO SEA.
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1134. GatorWX
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st


That's awesome!
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1133. Dakster
Quoting 1128. CybrTeddy:


Hard to not be sometimes..


Trust me... I know. I only thought I was the pessimist though. I was looking forward to a nice cool winter this year too. But since that would really help me out it won't happen.
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Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st




we all busted on that forcast lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting 1126. 47n91w:


It was 80 degrees and humid yesterday morning before a lake-breeze from Lake Superior pushed inland around noon. The temp dropped 15 degrees, it started misting, and the NE winds were producing white caps on Chequamegon Bay. It felt brutally cold!

And I didn't feel any warmer knowing it was 88 degrees and sunny inland.

Cold lake breezes are typical in May, June, and early July. The fact that they're still happening in September indicates to me that the Lake is still pretty chilly this summer. Hopefully that means less chances of a Gales of November storm and less lake-effect snow in this coming winter.


I was really suprised the first time I discovered how cold Lake Superior stays during the summer.
It can be 90 degrees 10 miles from the lake and 50 degrees on the lake shore.
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1130. Dakster
Quoting 1127. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st


Not that I care because I will be incorrect... But I posted my 'forecast' in your blogand I noticed it is not including in your graphic. At least I remember doing that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There may not be any hurricanes this season....just saying...the chances are real this year
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Quoting 1125. Dakster:


You are always the voice of optimism.


Hard to not be sometimes..
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I present to you
HURRICANE SCORECARD


Click for full size...

Last updated... July 1st
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1126. 47n91w
Quoting sar2401:

Don't forget Lake Superior and that giant lake they've got in Texas. You can never tell with this season. :-)


It was 80 degrees and humid yesterday morning before a lake-breeze from Lake Superior pushed inland around noon. The temp dropped 15 degrees, it started misting, and the NE winds were producing white caps on Chequamegon Bay. It felt brutally cold!

And I didn't feel any warmer knowing it was 88 degrees and sunny inland.

Cold lake breezes are typical in May, June, and early July. The fact that they're still happening in September indicates to me that the Lake is still pretty chilly this summer. Hopefully that means less chances of a Gales of November storm and less lake-effect snow in this coming winter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1125. Dakster
Quoting 1102. CybrTeddy:


Great, another overly warm winter for Florida. I'm calling it now, it'll be in the 80s in December, and I'll probably have a massive fever sometime soon from what will almost guaranteed be another bad flu season.


You are always the voice of optimism.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1124. SLU
Quoting 1117. sar2401:

The LGEM and SHIPS have been blowing intensity forecasts all season. I don't think the LGEM had one invest that it didn't forecast to make hurricane status. Both forecast Gabby to get to cat 2! Seriously, if these two models were a product customers had to buy, about how many sales do you think they'd have this year? How many models do we have now? 20? 25? Maybe it's time for some kind of science summit, pick out the top five, and work on improving them, instead of just churning out more blown models.


Well the LGEM has seen better days but it and the SHIPS perform poorly with invests but improve as a TC actually develops.
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Quoting 1118. Neapolitan:
The Rim Fire in California has now grown to 253,232 acres, or nearly 396 square miles. Now just 20,000 acres--a bit over 31 square miles--separate the Rim Fire from the 2003 Cedar fire, which (for now) is the largest fire in the state's history. The fire is still at 80% containment, where it's remained for several days. Acccording to Inciweb, around 2500 or so structures remain under threat.

The peak of California's fire season is generally September and October.



the Rim fire went up olny a little tooo 253,332 acres


Link

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
INVEST 92L looking good guys!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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