Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

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Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 220. odinslightning:
you can hate me for saying this, but for the hurricane hunters to be flying all 3 planes into Gabrielle is the exact kind of bureaucratic waste that has caused massive problems in America.....

It's now a fart in the wind and probably wont even threaten CONUS or Bermuda so why are they flying 3 planes in.....I will tell you why.....they wanna waste money so that next budget someone doesnt say.... "well you didn't use up all of your money from last year, we are gonna scale down your block grant"....

yet another sign of an idiotic bureaucracy completely out of control and out of touch with America in general.....


Anti science lives on.
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Quoting 217. nrtiwlnvragn:


NOAAHurricane Research Division is one of the users of the Gulfstream IV.

NASA is using the drones




Thanks, I'll pass it on. Out of here.
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you can hate me for saying this, but for the hurricane hunters to be flying all 3 planes into Gabrielle is the exact kind of bureaucratic waste that has caused massive problems in America.....

It's now a fart in the wind and probably wont even threaten CONUS or Bermuda so why are they flying 3 planes in.....I will tell you why.....they wanna waste money so that next budget someone doesnt say.... "well you didn't use up all of your money from last year, we are gonna scale down your block grant"....

yet another sign of an idiotic bureaucracy completely out of control and out of touch with America in general.....
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Quoting 216. FunnelVortex:


Have any RGB images of Gabby? Those are the best for looking at all the detail.



this go here and make sure you bookmark it


Link
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Quoting 208. Msdrown:
Good afternoon everyone. I have a met question for you experts out there. I just heard on a local radio station the latest Tropical weather update and they mentioned a term I never heard before on these so I called in to ask. The guy looked it up on the internet and got some info but I didn't catch the agency or organization who is doing this. It was called a G4 research mission. After he researched it I'm sure it is the kind of aircraft which was a G4 gulfstream. But my original thought is something you guys or the Dr. mentioned before that a met agency was going to start using drones for these long distant invests instead of the C130s. I'm assuming because of cost. Who is and are they already using the drones and what is the agency using these gulf streams and then I'll pass it on to the local radio station. Thanks in advance.


NOAAHurricane Research Division is one of the users of the Gulfstream IV.

NASA is using the drones
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Quoting 211. Patrap:



209.
Keep an eye on gabby for redevlopment.



..O you betcha bottom Beer we will'..dang nabbit'







Have any RGB images of Gabby? Those are the best for looking at all the detail.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131615
Keep in mind that two of the bigger storms to affect the East Coast occurred after the peak of hurricane season...Hugo in late September and Hazel in October.
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213. JRRP
Quoting hurricanes2018:
where is invest 91L

Africa
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120 hours
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209.
Keep an eye on gabby for redevlopment.



..O you betcha bottom Beer we will'..dang nabbit'





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131615
Quoting 202. Tropicsweatherpr:
18z Best Track for 91L.

AL, 91, 2013090718, , BEST, 0, 135N, 170W, 20, 1006, DB

Low pressure already.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33678
Keep an eye on gabby for redevlopment.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Good afternoon everyone. I have a met question for you experts out there. I just heard on a local radio station the latest Tropical weather update and they mentioned a term I never heard before on these so I called in to ask. The guy looked it up on the internet and got some info but I didn't catch the agency or organization who is doing this. It was called a G4 research mission. After he researched it I'm sure it is the kind of aircraft which was a G4 gulfstream. But my original thought is something you guys or the Dr. mentioned before that a met agency was going to start using drones for these long distant invests instead of the C130s. I'm assuming because of cost. Who is and are they already using the drones and what is the agency using these gulf streams and then I'll pass it on to the local radio station. Thanks in advance.
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where is invest 91L
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206. ryang
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18z guidance.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC SAT SEP 7 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912013) 20130907 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130907 1800 130908 0600 130908 1800 130909 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 17.0W 13.7N 18.7W 14.0N 20.5W 14.2N 22.4W
BAMD 13.5N 17.0W 13.8N 18.8W 14.2N 20.7W 14.4N 22.7W
BAMM 13.5N 17.0W 14.0N 18.8W 14.5N 20.9W 14.9N 23.1W
LBAR 13.5N 17.0W 14.0N 19.1W 14.9N 21.4W 16.1N 23.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 35KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130909 1800 130910 1800 130911 1800 130912 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 24.5W 15.5N 28.6W 16.1N 31.1W 19.0N 29.8W
BAMD 14.7N 24.8W 15.2N 28.3W 16.7N 30.4W 20.3N 30.9W
BAMM 15.2N 25.5W 15.2N 29.5W 15.6N 31.1W 19.1N 29.7W
LBAR 17.4N 26.5W 20.6N 31.3W 23.7N 34.5W 26.7N 35.1W
SHIP 60KTS 87KTS 103KTS 107KTS
DSHP 60KTS 87KTS 103KTS 107KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 17.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 15.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 13.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Quoting 158. RitaEvac:
Gotta pattern shift ongoing along the TX coast. Deep dark grey charcoal color sky towards the Bay with bright white cumulus in front following the SE flow. Overcast with rich blue skies within, tropical airmass is fully entrenched with calm to hardly any wind. GOM is area to watch as activity is lingering to the south. Thunder rumbling and extremely calm outside with towering cumulus 360 degrees around


We've got spotty showers here in Houston right now, a little thunder this morning. The forecast is pretty much on the money for today.

The RAP sounding from this morning looks pretty good, we've got an easterly wind below 15kft with winds out of the west on top of that, no evident CIN either.



Plenty of dry air aloft though, I wouldn't expect many of these storms to get particularly tall.
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Quoting 198. CybrTeddy:


Unlike previous storms - this one will likely be quite large and have a greater moisture field.
We will see I believe a cat 1 is not out of the question but nothing stronger than that.
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18z Best Track for 91L.

AL, 91, 2013090718, , BEST, 0, 135N, 170W, 20, 1006, DB
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Quoting 200. CybrTeddy:
91L
looking good.
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91L
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24785
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...CENTERED
ROUGHLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.


OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BLAKE
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Quoting 173. TropicalAnalystwx13:
91L will have a lack of vertical instability to contend with.

THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12.

Other than that, conditions look pretty favorable for this to become a hurricane.


Unlike previous storms - this one will likely be quite large and have a greater moisture field.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24785
72 hours
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Code orange/red,African Coast.
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Quoting 157. Grothar:


It would make a good study. However, here is an image of the 1933 hurricane season during the big drought. Only one small storm formed in the Gulf that year.






The drought bowl years weren't really that bad for the most part in Texas (1935 was actually one of the wetter years in Texas history and 1936 was also bonkers wet for many areas). If you want to look at some really bad drought years for Texas, look from 1950-1956.
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My eye might be playing games, but I see a spin around 23N/93W.
Maybe I need new glasses.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11077
193. SLU
Quoting 173. TropicalAnalystwx13:
91L will have a lack of vertical instability to contend with.

THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12.

Other than that, conditions look pretty favorable for this to become a hurricane.


These are my sentiments from day 1
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5379
12z Euro
48 hours
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Quoting flsky:

NO ONE foresaw what would happen this season
Yeap,nobody, including Dr. Master....
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Quoting 188. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I want some of what you are on! :)


Look at the visible sat. of the BOC. You'll see several small circulations. There very easy to see on Visible sat. loop.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11077
Quoting 180. HurricaneHunterJoe:
This one may need watching

12Z at 168 hours


00Z at 180 hours



As always it seems..... a trof lifting out.....and a high over the northeast us bridging with a Azores high building west........we will see


GFS sends it north at about 180 hours with the High backing off and opens up a weakness.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11077
Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:
Lots of little circulations in the BOC. One can be seen on radar south of Brownsville along the Mexican coast. On visible satellite I saw at least 3 little circulations in the BOC (middle, coast south of Brownsville, and near the southern coast of the BOC.
Look south of Brownsville near to coast on radar.


I want some of what you are on! :)
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Quoting 186. will40:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 061600
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT FRI 06 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-097 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0407A GABRIELLE
C. 06/1900Z
D. 24.0N 68.5W
E. 07/2030Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION FOR 08/1800Z NEAR
27N AND 67.5W.

3. REMARKS: THE MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR 06/1200Z
WAS CANCELED BY NHC 06/0530Z.

4. GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: REGENERATING GABRIELLE .
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1400Z, 07 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 23H 00M
E. IP: 1500Z, 07 SEP; 28.5 N, 73.6 W
F. EP: 0800Z, 08 SEPT; 28.5 N, 62.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 17H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1100Z, 08 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 78
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: W-E RACETRACK ON REGENERATED GABRIELLE
L. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 8/1100Z
M. NA871 TAKEOFF 0/1500Z.

5. ADDED: NOAA WILL ALSO FLY 3 RESEARCH MISSIONS
2 P3'S AND THE GIV WILL FLY IN SAME AREA AS THE NAS72.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW

did this one change NC?


Yes, the one I posted was from today..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 061600
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT FRI 06 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-097 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0407A GABRIELLE
C. 06/1900Z
D. 24.0N 68.5W
E. 07/2030Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION FOR 08/1800Z NEAR
27N AND 67.5W.

3. REMARKS: THE MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR 06/1200Z
WAS CANCELED BY NHC 06/0530Z.

4. GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: REGENERATING GABRIELLE .
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1400Z, 07 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 23H 00M
E. IP: 1500Z, 07 SEP; 28.5 N, 73.6 W
F. EP: 0800Z, 08 SEPT; 28.5 N, 62.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 17H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1100Z, 08 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 78
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: W-E RACETRACK ON REGENERATED GABRIELLE
L. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 8/1100Z
M. NA871 TAKEOFF 0/1500Z.

5. ADDED: NOAA WILL ALSO FLY 3 RESEARCH MISSIONS
2 P3'S AND THE GIV WILL FLY IN SAME AREA AS THE NAS72.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW

did this one change NC?
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Quoting 179. GeoffreyWPB:


I don't like crow. Can I eat humble pie????


I would rather listen to Humble Pie ;)
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Quoting 160. Grothar:
Nap time. See you later. Nurse Ratchett just came in.


It's Medication Time Everybody!!!
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The wave is sure going up quickly



2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.



I'd keep an eye on Gabby for redevelopment, too.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Quoting 155. ncstorm:
12z Navgem takes the African wave north and then has it heading west after weakening


i think all the models have it to some degree.....havent seen the ECMWF though
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Sun coming out, gorgeous looking out here with all the thunderheads and blue sky with deep dark charcoal color skies around, and everything soaked. Been a loooong time since I've seen this kind of weather.
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This one may need watching

12Z at 168 hours


00Z at 180 hours



As always it seems..... a trof lifting out.....and a high over the northeast us bridging with a Azores high building west........we will see
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Quoting 162. CybrTeddy:
Impressive stuff on the SHIPS for 91L, 110kts in 120 hours. Unrealistically strong, but we could see another Julia or Fred situation.


I don't like crow. Can I eat humble pie????
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Lots of little circulations in the BOC. One can be seen on radar south of Brownsville along the Mexican coast. On visible satellite I saw at least 3 little circulations in the BOC (middle, coast south of Brownsville, and near the southern coast of the BOC.
Look south of Brownsville near to coast on radar.
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Nhc already mentioning potential development in the sw gulf in the 5 day window .interesting!
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 071543
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 07 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-098

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 08/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0507A GABRIELLE
C. 08/1630Z
D. 26.0N 68.5W
E. 07/2030Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION FOR 09/2100Z NEAR
27.5N AND 67.0W.

3. REMARKS: GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION WILL BE FLOWN BY NA871
DEPARTING WFF AT 08/1400Z, AREA AROUND REMANTS OF GABRIELLE, NO DROPSONDES. THE NOAA P3'S AND GIV AIRCRAFT WILL ALSO FLY RESEARCH MISSIONS IN SAME AREA, DEPARTING TISX AROUT THE SAME TIME.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW
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Quoting 147. txjac:


Yee-haw! Happy to see you are getting some well needed rain. I havent gotten any here yet but am staying positive that its not going to miss me today.

almost and inch thus far, thats gotta help

Enjoy it while you can

Edit: Rumour has it that Ihave27windows is getting rain as well!


Yes!
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 7 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LORENA...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
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91L will have a lack of vertical instability to contend with.

THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12.

Other than that, conditions look pretty favorable for this to become a hurricane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33678
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...CENTERED
ROUGHLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS. DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BLAKE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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