Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

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Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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LMAO, posts 349 and 360 are the best I've read here in a while. I'd remove them though or you two will be banned (which is exactly what SS093 is trying to accomplish).
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Off topic: 2020 Olympics to be hosted by Tokyo over Istanbul and Madrid.




actually...it's still the first round....tokyo is first...and it's a tie between istanbull and madrid...they'll do a tie breaker...and then it will be between tokyo and the winner of the tie breaker
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12z Experimental FIM-9:

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Because of this season, I wouldn't buy the hype of 91L yet...

Off topic: 2020 Olympics to be hosted by Tokyo over Istanbul and Madrid.
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Quoting 359. GatorWX:


I knew it was Africa! JK, I'll check it out. Bad day for sports, bad day! Congrats team from the south. It was a sloppy one, but you pulled it off with about half as many yards, so a win deserved.
Africa has been healthier than normal, which should promote an above average season. MY problem with Africa is that strong upward motion over there will not promote upward motion over our basin. In fact, it tends to promote a bit of downward motion.
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367. Mikla
Quoting 353. Patrap:


Hit Ctrl on the kybrd and scroll yer mouse to enlarge, or ZOOM on a Laptop.

A 53 yr old tip

Thanks! Another thing I probably knew at one time then those brain cells died off... gotta stop some of my habits so I can remember this tomorrow...
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Of note - my original forecast was 18/9/2, I got called out for being low on major hurricanes. My gut feeling was that vertical instability would be low and that TC genesis would be instead focused in the western Atlantic and we'd see loads of weak, anemic storms. I even mentioned it in my video update.

As the season went further in, it appeared to me that vertical instability wouldn't be as much as a problem as I feared and I revised my forecast to a more "meaty" 16/6/4, calling for more major hurricanes and less pathetic storms.

However, it's clear that my original fears were indeed correct and that vertical instability was a major take-away from this season, not only that but we've seen less "weak" storms than I was expecting. Based on that, my final total is 12/4/2, if that. I don't like to revise my seasonal totals, but it's clear that this season is a major forecasting bust.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
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Quoting 362. redwagon:




Well.. from all appearances 99L is entraining EPAC moisture now that it's halfway across MX. Looks like it's going to Break on Thru To The Other Side. I remember how Hermine got renamed in 2010, but would 99L get just 01E or something?



for the last time 99L was TD 8 got it evere one TD 8
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Cursing is not allowed here n any form, a lot of children come here to learn about the weather.
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Quoting 353. Patrap:


Hit Ctrl on the kybrd and scroll yer mouse to enlarge, or ZOOM on a Laptop.

A 53 yr old tip




Well.. from all appearances 99L is entraining EPAC moisture now that it's halfway across MX. Looks like it's going to Break on Thru To The Other Side. I remember how Hermine got renamed in 2010, but would 99L get just 01E or something?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
361. SLU
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Quoting 355. TomTaylor:
For those interested, I have listed and explained my reasons for the anomalous downward motion over the Atlantic (and resulting below average season) on Dr. Lee Grenchi's blog. For those too lazy to look, I list subtropical SSTs, Africa, and the EPAC as problems.


I knew it was Africa! JK, I'll check it out. Bad day for sports, bad day! Congrats team from the south. It was a sloppy one, but you pulled it off with about half as many yards, so a win deserved.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3389
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Quoting 160. Grothar:
Nap time. See you later. Nurse Ratchett just came in.


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Quoting 109. Jedkins01:


If you live in Florida, you should be able to relate.

Looks accurate to me (I live in West Palm Beach). :P
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For those interested, I have listed and explained my reasons for the anomalous downward motion over the Atlantic (and resulting below average season) on Dr. Lee Grenchi's blog. For those too lazy to look, I list subtropical SSTs, Africa, and the EPAC as problems.
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Well dang, I didn't even know I'd been called out. Why? I had that guy on ignore.

I don't pay it any attention, I've been told far worse by far better.

Focus on hurricanes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
Quoting 318. Mikla:


Dang... took me a few minutes to figure out what I was looking at. At 55, I got a sore neck moving my head up and down trying to find the right focus place on my progressive lens to see that tiny lat/lon type... ;)


Hit Ctrl on the kybrd and scroll yer mouse to enlarge, or ZOOM on a Laptop.

A 53 yr old tip
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Quoting 125. Grothar:


You can laugh and think I'm joking, but I did write about that at the beginning of the season and last month actually got into one of my few arguments about it on the blog. Everyone naturally concentrates on the SAL and dry air in the North Atlantic, but very few, including some meteorologists consider the amount of moisture that comes from South American including the Brazilian Rainforest. I believe more scientists have been taking that into consideration. I have posted a few articles on it in links. Maybe I should post the entire articles.

I am sticking with my original numbers. 8-0-0. LOL

The problem is Brazil doesn't transport moisture into the tropical Atlantic. It's quite the opposite in fact.The image below shows low-level long-term mean wind vectors for ASO. Strong moisture advection away from the Atlantic and into South America and the Amazon rain forest.

850mb Long-Term Mean Wind Vectors for ASO




Instead, the drought over the rain forest is probably more of a symptom of the downward motion over the Atlantic, rather than a cause. Deforestation and strong upward motion over the African continent are likely what is hurting South America the most right now.
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Quoting 331. txjac:
I seriously cannot believe this.
The rain has totally missed
Not one drop

Been like that all week
That reminds me of the 2011 thunderstorm season here in Herndon VA. Storms missed us in every way possible.

But don't worry. It looks like the pattern in the not so far future could favor more rain for Texas.
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so SHIP model and others said Gabrielle would become a BIG storm and that didnt verify, so why you guys posting that with 91L lmao. hoping for anything it seems NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting 277. SuperStorm093:


Hey Cyber...so how did your 2013 hurricane season forecast go?? yeah thats what I thought


will you shut the heck up? I dont post, I only lurk but you've crossed the line in terms of BS and it needs to be called out. you're a total moron and you're off base. You act like everything you've said about this season was right, however I've been reading your posts and even I with my limited understanding of tropical cyclone formation know that everything you've said is so badly wrong that it honestly makes me cringe, everything you've posted is so bad that I'm surprised you even know how to type. Your a total novice and it shows pretty bad with everything you say, it reeks of desperation for attention. How old are you? You act like you're 13 at most, maybe 14?

how dare you single someone out when you're so incapable of even forecasting even the basics of meteorology.

"so how did your 2013 hurricane season forecast go"? A damn far sight better than anything your brain could weasel up.
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Texas is starting to get some good seabreeze T-storms inland...in some places, but rather widespread.  If the conditions ripen off the TX coast, could be we might see formation of something here without importing anything from the BOC.  That would solve the problem with any sheer inbetween disrupting it, and so close to land might help keep it tame enough to simply be a rain-maker.  Am I being cruel to mention such a tease?
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recon is up
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invest 91L FISH STORM
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 52348
Quoting 343. Tazmanian:




we all ready had the F storm


You're right... Brain fart...

BTW< I thought you were getting a new nickname?
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Quoting 330. Hurricanemarian:
So 91? Is the one

I don't see it being much

That's so adorable.
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Quoting 339. Dakster:
F Storm may be forming. Hopefully not to be known as Hurricane FUBAR.




we all ready had the F storm
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wind shear map!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 52348
341. MahFL
Quoting 232. VAbeachhurricanes:


.. Wait for a system where we aren't sure what going on to spend that much money.


The problem is if you wait there might not be anything else to research. Remember a lot of new discoveries in science are researching things you think you know and finding new things.
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I wounder if WU is trying too play gosht tricks on us
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F Storm may be forming. Hopefully not to be known as Hurricane FUBAR.
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338. Mikla
Quoting 336. 62901IL:
Anyone getting a wind shear map at the top of their page?

yep
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Quoting 336. 62901IL:
Anyone getting a wind shear map at the top of their page?



yep
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Anyone getting a wind shear map at the top of their page?
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I'm expecting a very warm August on the UAH Satellite temperature dataset. I posted this to WUWT under a pseudonym too. I call it the Roy factor. If Dr. Roy Spencer reports the data early, the month is more likely to be cooler. If reported later in the month, the month is more likely to be warmer.

Over the last twelve months, it has become apparent that the cutoff between warm and cool is the fifth of the month. Over that period, 6 months were reported on or before the 4th of the following months. The mean of those months was 0.153C above the 1981-2010 mean. 6 months were reported on or after the 5th of the month. The mean of those six months was 0.350C above the 1981-2010 mean. This is nearly 0.20C difference, which seems to be too large of a difference to be mere chance. I believe this pattern can be detected more than just over the past 12 months, but I don't have the time or desire to check.

Given this and the intense oceanic warming observed particularly in the Pacific Ocean, I believe August 2013 will be a very warm month. I suspect it will be between 0.20C and 0.50C above the 1981-2010 mean, with a most likely value around 0.35C above that mean.
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Shear is settling down further in W GOM -- esp near TX coast and BOC.

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Quoting 319. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Loving it! Miami Hurricanes fan by default and may apply there for graduate school. I may be a current student at Embry-Riddle, but we don't have a football team yet, maybe in a few years, (hopefully next year)when we can get a higher enrollment rate and the distribution of males and females are even, the student athletics department will throw in funding to get a team going. We'll likely start in the smaller divisions and work our way up.
g love miami. Went to undergrad 1971 to 1975. Med school 1975 to 1980
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Another stormy afternoon in S. Ft Myers. Picked up .97" in about 15 minutes and it still pouring.
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331. txjac
I seriously cannot believe this.
The rain has totally missed
Not one drop

Been like that all week
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So 91? Is the one

I don't see it being much
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Quoting 307. Patrap:


That is just really difficult to figure out. You can see the whole, intact, mature footprint of 99L (mwuhaha) over land, minus the convection. I guess it wants to cross to the EPAC...it's halfway there? How weird would that be? Could it try to cross back over again after strengthening on the other side? Bizarre.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
Quoting 315. Hurricanemarian:
98 is dead

Rip
Didnt even make it off Africa


Another storm bites the dust


Really should double, no triple check your facts.

98L is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean
AL, 98, 2013090718, , BEST, 0, 146N, 345W, 25, 1010, LO


The one you want to make fun of is 91L
AL, 91, 2013090718, , BEST, 0, 135N, 170W, 20, 1006, DB

If you are going to troll at least get facts straight.
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Quoting 321. Tribucanes:


Yeah the whole blog hates on you. All of September left, all of October, and may get one storm in November. We still have over 50% of the season left. The blog doesn't plus you because your snarky, rude, and add very little of value other than your downcasting skills. Why single out Teddy? Whole blog and experts worldwide predicted an above average season. I'm not your buddy, just saying going out of your way to be snide a'int cool.
Thanks Good Ole Pal!!!
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I want to say
Everyone thanks for the forcast but now it's crow season
So get your plates ready
All forcasters I thank u for trying to get things right
Enjoy your crow this thanksgiving.


I'm glad this hurricane season is over with an a bust
Atleast nothing hit florida
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Quoting 305. SuperStorm093:
I get none cause they hate I dont forecast storms like everyone and they dont like to hear that, and we dont have a long way to go, the peak is 3 days away buddy. And the MJO will be moving along and out of the Atlantic in October so yeah......
mjo is leaving alreadyLink
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We should be tracking a potent West Pacific typhoon in a week.

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323. beell
Quoting 312. CybrTeddy:


Operational model agrees with this solution for now.


It's monsoonal. Don't get too excited yet.
:)
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operational model of gfs has tracking east of Fl and bening picked up by a trough at 384 hrs. for what it's worth this far out
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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