Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

Share this Blog
56
+

Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 522 - 472

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

The Eastern Pacific's been more exciting than the Atlantic this year. We already hit "Lorena", and Hawaii had several close calls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 503. Civicane49:


Whoa.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One of the Pouch Tracking Synopsis on TD-8L showed the main Low inland into Mexico, and another Northern shedded Piece roll into Texas..so this may be the energy doin so. But the more it stays out over water, we should monitor it.

And they will.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543


Lowest pressures I have seen in the Caribbean in quite sometime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 516. Levi32:
My GFS ensemble spread graphics work again, for those that missed them.



I didn't even know they stopped working. Astro needs to check other people's sites more often, lol. Thanks for the update Levi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Based on the latest sheer maps i don't see 98l becoming a hurricane if it heads north, if it continues on a more west course it will have a better chance to develop..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My GFS ensemble spread graphics work again, for those that missed them.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting 511. redwagon:
#496, Patrap:

This is so puzzling... it's like there were circs E of 99L just waiting to pick up its convection once it went ashore. Do you remember what 99L looked like when it first popped up, that strange check-mark sharp-angle look in extreme S BOC?

What do you think is happening here? Most of the models foresaw this, but I can't understand what I'm looking at with my own eyes. The low still exists and is entraining EPAC plumes.. apparently it's high enough for the mountains not to disrupt it to RIP.


There's some vorticity maybe aloft or at the Mid Levels offshore in the GOM, but the Mexican Leftover is interesting.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
invest 91L will be a hurricane and going out to sea or be a fish storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 512. TropicalAnalystwx13:

K. Wait until you screw up.


Oooo, is that a threat? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 508. Astrometeor:


Sorry TA.

"Eric thinks NHC will become a hurricane."
-TropicalAnalystwx13 in chat moments ago.

Ah, how funny typing mistakes can be.

K. Wait until you screw up.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31448
#496, Patrap:

This is so puzzling... it's like there were circs E of 99L just waiting to pick up its convection once it went ashore. Do you remember what 99L looked like when it first popped up, that strange check-mark sharp-angle look in extreme S BOC?

What do you think is happening here? Most of the models foresaw this, but I can't understand what I'm looking at with my own eyes. The low still exists and is entraining EPAC plumes.. apparently it's high enough for the mountains not to disrupt it to RIP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 508. Astrometeor:


Sorry TA.

"Eric thinks NHC will become a hurricane."
-TropicalAnalystwx13 in chat moments ago.

Ah, how funny typing mistakes can be.
LOL you didn't... and yes, TA did indeed typed this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 501. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Based on what I'm observing, 91L should become the first hurricane of the season. However, it appears as if it won't attain this intensity until after 12z on September 11. It's a win for those wanting the record to fall and those who want to get a 65 knot system sometime this year.


Sorry TA.

"Eric thinks NHC will become a hurricane."
-TropicalAnalystwx13 in chat moments ago.

Ah, how funny typing mistakes can be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 469. beell:
Tom Taylor,

What type of clouds are those entering the central Atlantic from the upper right corner of the loop?
And what type of weather is associated with this type of cloud?
And how prevalent would you say this type of cloud has been this year?



North Atlantic RGB Loop


I believe you talking about the fair weather cumulous clouds associated with dry air.
Check the water vapor loop and you'll find very dry air in the area where those clouds show up on visible satellte.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 497. opal92nwf:
98L: They keep writing this thing off, and it keeps lingering. Maybe it's a fighter, and we always have to watch fighters carefully.



Yes definitely, especially now.... because the peak is very close
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
AL912013 - INVEST

IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
91L may be strong enough to pull some moisture up from the south.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 294. Patrap:
ACC over SEC'

Talk about wishcasting. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Based on what I'm observing, 91L should become the first hurricane of the season. However, it appears as if it won't attain this intensity until after 12z on September 11. It's a win for those wanting the record to fall and those who want to get a 65 knot system sometime this year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31448
Quoting 485. CaribBoy:


98L we are ready for you.

"Bring it honey!"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is what I think when a storm is approaching land...

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
.....weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee'

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
98L: They keep writing this thing off, and it keeps lingering. Maybe it's a fighter, and we always have to watch fighters carefully.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Only 82.5F Mid City, NOLA

Schweeeet.


Falcon Fry in the Dome tomorrow, Noon CDT.

Try the Gumbo maybe.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
495. IKE
Hour 96...


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If 91L dies like the other ones before... will be a catastrophic bust/fail for models
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
So 91L won't bust this time
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
Quoting 488. TropicalAnalystwx13:

V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107

V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 58 73 87 93 93 90
Quoting 489. nrtiwlnvragn:


TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 58 73 87 93 93 90
Thanks guys. Predictable intensity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 475. nrtiwlnvragn:
58 dropsondes in the 18Z GFS




58!!! They will crash the GFS... GFS needs more power to handle all those data
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
Quoting 486. MiamiHurricanes09:
Is there a SHIPS/LGEM run on 91L?

I don't have my laptop with me.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 486. MiamiHurricanes09:
Is there a SHIPS/LGEM run on 91L?

I don't have my laptop with me.


TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 58 73 87 93 93 90
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 486. MiamiHurricanes09:
Is there a SHIPS/LGEM run on 91L?

I don't have my laptop with me.

V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 47 60 74 87 96 103 107 107

V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 34 45 58 73 87 93 93 90
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31448
487. IKE
84 hours....


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is there a SHIPS/LGEM run on 91L?

I don't have my laptop with me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 483. stormpetrol:
I would continue to watch former 98L near 12N/32W


98L we are ready for you.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
Quoting 481. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I want hog.


I like hog as well, perhaps even more than beef... depending on how it is cooked :)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
I would continue to watch former 98L near 12N/32W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 478. Civicane49:
66 hours



Why is it so hard to just go WEST
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
Quoting 476. CaribBoy:


I want a good surprise. Tired with the fish, I prefer the beef.
I want hog.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting 469. beell:
Tom Taylor,

What type of clouds are those entering the central Atlantic from the upper right corner of the loop?
And what type of weather is associated with this type of cloud?
And how prevalent would you say this type of cloud has been this year?



Uh, water-clouds?? ;-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 467. Walshy:
I don't think a early recurving hurricane will even help this blog's sanity one bit..



It's sort of like chaos & disorder. The nature of this blog will slowly go downhill over time, but major events such as land-falling hurricanes will provide temporary relief and order to the blog. However, these events won't stop this place's eventual self-destruction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
66 hours

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Doesn't look like 98L is completely DEAD. GOOD!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
Quoting 473. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Alright let's get back to the weather and my favorite part model watching. xD



I want a good surprise. Tired with the fish, I prefer the beef.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5929
58 dropsondes in the 18Z GFS


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here's a loop on expected shear. GOM, including TX coast, will lighten up significantly it seems. TX coast will return to more shear soon, but BOC seems to be open for tropical business for a nice stretch of a few good days, anyway -- maybe enough time to build something. 

Animated Tropical WRF Model - Shear and Winds

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alright let's get back to the weather and my favorite part model watching. xD

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting 469. beell:
Tom Taylor,

What type of clouds are those entering the central Atlantic from the upper right corner of the loop?
And what type of weather is associated with this type of cloud?
And how prevalent would you say this type of cloud has been this year?



He went to the beach with friends beell. Ask a little later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 522 - 472

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast