Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

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Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 570. PcolaSurf182:


Rick Scott = Mr. Clean! I like it. Never heard that one before. Bring back Charlie


But he's a moderate, ahhhhh!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
Gulf looks wet on the latest GFS..
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Quoting 547. GatorWX:


Hear ya there. Sometimes I like being poor, then I remember I live in Florida and when you are out of work, even for a short time, they stick it to you every way Mr Clean knows how. Thanks Gov!


Rick Scott = Mr. Clean! I like it. Never heard that one before. Bring back Charlie
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Quoting 550. Patrap:
One day a MSC is gonna slide off Sw Fla in September and become a player in da GOM.


That happened in 1986 with Hurricanes Bonnie. On Wiki, it states that Bonnie was formed from a quasi-stationary front, but actually it had a lot more to do with a large thunderstorm complex that formed over S.W.Florida, and gradually became better organized as it moved W-NW across the gulf.
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Quoting 553. FunnelVortex:


Sucks for those taking a cruise there right now.


Friend of mine just left Ft Lauderdale tonight for a 7 nighter to Nassau, Virgin Islands and Sint Maarten.
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Quoting 558. Tazmanian:




YAWN don't get your hops up 91L will likey be other 94L 96L 98L
NHC giving it 30% in 48 hours and 80% in 5 days is not a yawner, lol.
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Quoting 557. FunnelVortex:


I think they meant "MCS" (mesoscale convective system)"


That's what I was assuming. I've never heard of a MSC system of thunderstorms. I wouldn't argue though as I just do not know enough.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
Quoting 559. redwagon:


Not for TX. Trying to fix a 40" rain deficit, in a desert. Something about positive feedback, TX droughts are fixed by TX floods and vice-versa.

Last time we got droughted this horribly was in the 50s.



Definitely, just when does that next flood come? Well who knows... I'm waiting for it though.
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Seriously, again? Two days in a row, a massive complex of thunderstorms seemingly packs up and goes around us. Strange, to me.



We'll get some blow back, but the main cells avoid us.
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Quoting 558. Tazmanian:




YAWN don't get your hops up 91L will likey be other 94L 96L 98L


Based on?
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Quoting 558. Tazmanian:




YAWN don't get your hops up 91L will likey be other 94L 96L 98L


I don't know about that, consensus is looking increasingly stronger and the dry air is on a steady decline. We might as well see this beat all the other Invests you brought up, but I'm not saying this will pull an 'Igor' or 'Earl', just a strong contender to the first hurricane of the season and a fish storm at that.
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Quoting 549. hurricanes2018:

big fish storm!


Not for TX. Trying to fix a 40" rain deficit, in a desert. Something about positive feedback, TX droughts are fixed by TX floods and vice-versa.

Last time we got droughted this horribly was in the 50s.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3282
Quoting 551. Thing342:
AL 91 should hopefully be our first hurricane this season.





YAWN don't get your hops up 91L will likey be other 94L 96L 98L
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Quoting 554. GatorWX:


What's an MSC?


I think they meant "MCS" (mesoscale convective system)"
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
@Levi: Not sure if you aware already, but your satellite loops went down.
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Meso scale complex??
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Quoting 550. Patrap:
One day a MSC is gonna slide off Sw Fla in September and become a player in da GOM.




What's an MSC?
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Quoting 536. Patrap:


Sucks for those taking a cruise there right now.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
Quoting 549. hurricanes2018:

big fish storm!


I like you 18, but you have to stop being so assertive or people won't take you seriously. You have a clue and I respect that, but try not to come across like you know it all.

Josh
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AL 91 should hopefully be our first hurricane this season.

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One day a MCS is gonna slide off Sw Fla in September and become a player in da GOM.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130848
Quoting 539. redwagon:




Re-posting that one. Cat4 in CATL and Cat2 spanning TX!

big fish storm!
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Quoting 545. orion45:


My appologies for the misunderstanding. I took your statement "ACC over SEC" to be your long term forecast for the National Championship. :)


As a LSU fan for 53 years, datz prolly not gonna happen.

No pology required, the sky shall not fall, too mch Dry air.

; )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130848
Quoting 543. redwagon:


Me, too! Actually a systems analyst/developer that fell in love with a deli. I just like serving food to people more than serving data to people, Italian thing. Quite a bit poorer, tho.


Hear ya there. Sometimes I like being poor, then I remember I live in Florida and when you are out of work, even for a short time, they stick it to you every way Mr Clean knows how. Thanks Gov!
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Quoting 541. JRRP:



Hoping so badly... but Levi said the dry air won't give a chance to anything here...

DEPRESSING!!! NEXT!
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Quoting 524. Patrap:
Quoting 294. Patrap:
ACC over SEC'




Gators drowned to the Hurricane, First of the season I fig'ya.


The Models missed dat un 2.


My appologies for the misunderstanding. I took your statement "ACC over SEC" to be your long term forecast for the National Championship. :)
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Yay! So much for dinner!



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Quoting 538. GatorWX:


I still do, ;)

Only blog when I'm not.


Me, too! Actually a systems analyst/developer that fell in love with a deli. I just like serving food to people more than serving data to people, Italian thing. Quite a bit poorer, tho.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3282
SO.......... IF I HAVE CORRECTLY UNDERSTOOD WHAT LEVI SAID IN HIS VIDEO... WELL THE SEASON IS OVER FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.

What a disappointment... lol.

Now hopping for a OMAR-type hurricane in october.

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541. JRRP

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Well, actually I'm trying. Not easy!
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Quoting 503. Civicane49:




Re-posting that one. Cat4 in CATL and Cat2 spanning TX!
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Quoting 535. Patrap:


LOL...

Yeah

I made a living here on Grill, Saute and fry way before I was a blogger.


I still do, ;)

Only blog when I'm not.
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Quoting 497. opal92nwf:
98L: They keep writing this thing off, and it keeps lingering. Maybe it's a fighter, and we always have to watch fighters carefully.

Okey dokey.
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Quoting 526. GatorWX:


If they only made it like we do on Boca Grande!

; )


LOL...

Yeah

I made a living here on Grill, Saute and fry way before I was a blogger.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130848
91L is the most promising wave of the season so far.
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.
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From Brownsville NWS office discussion:

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING AN INVERTED 500MB TROUGH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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I'm not a gambler, but if I were I'd wager some money that 91L is going to be the first 'cane of the season. It's already starting to get that look/feel. Might go out to sea, that's the best kind imo, but it'll be interesting to watch.
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SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM MDT SAT SEP 7 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO
2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE


THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 140
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BAKER MONTANA TO 90 MILES SOUTH OF BUFFALO SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MT ARE
BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CLUSTER OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
ALONG/AHEAD OF ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ITS AGGREGATE WIND/HAIL THREAT
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ESEWD WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE...ROUGHLY INVOF US-12
ACROSS NWRN SD AND SWRN ND. ADDITIONAL SVR CONVECTION MAY FORM
ALONG OUTFLOW/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER
NERN WY...AND TRAILING FROM MT CLUSTER BACK INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY.
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851 FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...EDWARDS
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Quoting 508. Astrometeor:


Sorry TA.

"Eric thinks NHC will become a hurricane."
-TropicalAnalystwx13 in chat moments ago.

Ah, how funny typing mistakes can be.


LOL!!!!!!
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Quoting 503. Civicane49:


That's just massive!
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Quoting 496. Patrap:
Only 82.5F Mid City, NOLA

Schweeeet.


Falcon Fry in the Dome tomorrow, Noon CDT.

Try the Gumbo maybe.





If they only made it like we do on Boca Grande!

; )
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only INVEST 98L need to be watch! invest 91L 100% GOING OUT TO SEA
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Quoting 294. Patrap:
ACC over SEC'


Quoting 502. orion45:

Talk about wishcasting. :)


Gators drowned to the Hurricane, First of the season I fig'ya.


The Models missed dat un 2.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130848



HOT with no breeze today in TCI...

xGabrielle stole our tradewinds.
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The Eastern Pacific's been more exciting than the Atlantic this year. We already hit "Lorena", and Hawaii had several close calls.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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