Tropical Depression Eight Hits Tampico, Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013

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Blink, and you missed it: the latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the Tropical Depression Eight, taken at 1:30 pm EDT on September 6, 2013. TD 8 was making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, with top winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Ex-Gabrielle
The remnants of Gabrielle are generating heavy thunderstorms a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic, as seen on satellite loops. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots is inhibiting development, and wind shear is expected to stay high for the next five days. NHC put ex-Gabrielle's 2-day odds of development at 20% and 5-day odds at 40% in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook. The disturbance is headed to the north at 10 - 15 mph, and is expected to turn to the northeast and pass several hundred miles east of Bermuda on Tuesday. For such a meager storm, ex-Gabrielle will be getting a lot of attention today. NOAA is planning on flying all three of their hurricane research aircraft into the storm, and NASA will be sending up one of their two remotely piloted Global Hawks. An Air Force hurricane hunter flight is also scheduled for Saturday afternoon. With the tropical Atlantic not looking like it will generate anything more interesting to study for at least the next week, the hurricane researchers have to make do with what little they have.


Figure 2. Could this be the beginnings of the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013? MODIS satellite image of a tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa, taken at approximately 8 am EDT September 7, 2013. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Tuesday, and some of the models show it growing to hurricane strength by mid-week. Image credit: NASA.

New African tropical wave: is it destined to be the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013?
A strong tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa this weekend, and all of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Tuesday. Some of the models have been eager to intensify the storm into a hurricane by mid-week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 80%.

Why such a quiet Atlantic hurricane season?
Unusual dryness over the Atlantic has been the main reason for this year's lack of hurricanes, it appears. Wunderblogger Lee Grenci's latest post, "The Lack of Atlantic Hurricanes: The Saga of Low Relative Humidity Continues", looks at how dry the Tropical Atlantic has been this hurricane season. Part of the unusual dryness, he maintains, is due to dry air coming off the coast of Brazil, which is in severe to extreme drought, according to the global drought monitor. Aon Benfield puts the cost of the Brazilian drought at $8.3 billion so far this year, making it Brazil's most expensive natural disaster in its history.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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1272. bigwes6844
8:36 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1271. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Who DAT!
We dat! not them falcons! so how is our 80% bubble looking?
Member Since: July 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2517
1271. CaicosRetiredSailor
7:57 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Who DAT!
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
1270. Neapolitan
4:56 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1260. ScottLincoln:

You've really got to find a way to have python do the work for you in analyzing and plotting that data. All that manual work every few days is going to kill ya!
Manual work? Hah! I just update a few cells in a spreadsheet, and click save. All the resizing, renaming, and uploading is done with a script. Nah, I'd estimate that after the initial development, I probably spend an average of about 10-20 seconds a day on each graph.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13457
1269. sar2401
4:37 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.

You are the only one in the "community" that I've read that's making an issue out of it. First, it's Max's chart, so he makes the rules. The rules were, make your guess by July 1, and that's what we did. The rules weren't to make a new guess every month through October.

This was just a fun thing to do. None of us have the ability to make an accurate forecast (nor does CSU or the NHC, for that matter, even now) so it was just a bunch of guesses. With as many people who participated, someone is bound to be right just by the law of averages. Is this just something where you want to be right? That's fine, I'll declare you my personal winner. Just like all storms moving west. I'll agree with you until they don't. None of this is really all that important.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
1268. Tazmanian
4:33 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1247. RGVtropicalWx13:

Talk about impatient. This season is about to turn around 180 degrees.




you guys been saying that all freaking season long and look nothing has really happen yet some of you guys need too look at the facs



1 wind shear have been high for most of the season and still is now and now where getting in two mid SEP the wind shear olny going too get higher from here on out CV season is closeing


2 lost of dry air


3 there been a lot of ULLS this season and with that it brings high wind shear

4 all so there been a lack of INSTABILITY in the MDR and this about evere where this season

5 and last be not less the MJO we been saying since late july the MJO will come around and be strong well where has the MJO been this season? it seem like its been in the E PAC the most of the season so with that all said the lack of a MJO ULLS dry air and high wind shear and lack of INSTABILITY and what do you guys get you get a season with vary low # and that what we have seen this season all so this season has been like what you find in a EL nino look for the season too end vary early this year un less things really start too turn around but am not seeing it right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
1267. wunderkidcayman
4:32 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
anyway lets leave it at that and lets get on to Jeff's new blog
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
1266. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1265. wunderkidcayman
4:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.
Quoting 1224. GatorWX:


Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.

Quoting 1225. Tazmanian:



good luck with that there is no way we are going too see that many storms your forcast is all ready a big bust

you can't say that here tell me that at or near the season's end we got the rest of this month and october and november I can see the possibility of seeing 10 storms before the end

Quoting 1228. Astrometeor:


He's not changing the NHC or CSU forecasts, either.

Edit: Are you Max?

No I'm not Max

Quoting 1229. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Those are organizations responsible for...
Only them could be excused.

Weather Underground is an organization and its people within made forecast for the season you took that and made it into a chart the people have their rights to change their forecast for their mid season if they want to and the same way that the NHC and CSU forecast is out publicly so is this and the whole world can see it so we want the world to see WU old or WU new I think new
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
1264. SLU
4:29 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1253. Tropicsweatherpr:


It looks that way. Now let's see if in reality reaches hurricane strength. IMO,it will be a close call.


my opinion calls for a brief 55 - 65kt tropical cyclone well within 96 hrs at best.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
1263. PalmBeachWeather
4:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1262. chrisdscane:
record will be broken this year, this is the type of record you want to see broken, stay safe yall back to football!!!!!
Is that that rap guy?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5818
1262. chrisdscane
4:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
record will be broken this year, this is the type of record you want to see broken, stay safe yall back to football!!!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065
1261. sar2401
4:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting weatherlover94:
if something forms in the BOC this week where will it go ? since it is at the end of a front should it continue west into Mexico again or will it track North toward Louisiana ?

Three theoretical questions, and one alone is impossible to answer. :-) If a storm forms in the Gulf, then we might be able to guess.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
1260. ScottLincoln
4:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1219. Neapolitan:
Not at the moment. They're just on a spreadsheet. I do have a public website where my climate graphs are available; I plan to work over the winter on adding the tropical charts and graphs to it.

You've really got to find a way to have python do the work for you in analyzing and plotting that data. All that manual work every few days is going to kill ya!
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3167
1259. sar2401
4:25 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Gabrielle was originally forecast to enter the northwestern Caribbean under superb conditions...arguably the most favorable region for tropical cyclone intensification in the entire globe. The intensity forecasts made perfect sense.

The later forecasts were adjusted downwards as soon as the statistical guidance forecasted the system to move over the Greater Antilles. The displacement of the mid and surface circulations is impossible to forecast, hence why the latter forecasts never verified. If it weren't for that, Gabrielle could've very well become a 60-70kt tropical cyclone.

I'm sorry, but this kind of model defense doesn't hold water. As has already been stated, LGEM and SHIPS have historically only worked well with a developed cyclone. Since that's the case, don't make ridiculous intensity forecasts when things are merely invests. Is it impossible for a model to state" not enough data" for a forecast, or does it have to make up numbers?

As for the idea that this invest was entering the best conditions known to the globe, apparently we can't much depend on models knowing when this really aren't that great, can we?

Now, when exactly did the GEM and SHIPS stop predicting hurricane intensity compared to when it was declared a depression? Give that answer and you'll see why the models are broken.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 13127
1258. weatherlover94
4:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
if something forms in the BOC this week where will it go ? since it is at the end of a front should it continue west into Mexico again or will it track North toward Louisiana ?
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2068
1257. Patrap
4:23 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1256. PalmBeachWeather
4:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1254. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


What?????

1918? 95 years ago? You?
LOL
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5818
1255. PalmBeachWeather
4:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1252. Patrap:


Living smack on 30n 90w, I'm gonna go out on a limb and count her off.
If it's a Mahogany limb be careful...Mine all fell and broke during Wilma
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5818
1254. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:21 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1236. PalmBeachWeather:
Since I was a little girl mrmom...I think around 1918 , give or take


What?????

1918? 95 years ago? You?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
1253. Tropicsweatherpr
4:20 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1242. SLU:
Still a TS at 12z September 11th. New record should be set in 2013.



It looks that way. Now let's see if in reality reaches hurricane strength. IMO,it will be a close call.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14009
1252. Patrap
4:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1249. FunnelVortex:


Really wouldn't count off Gabby yet.


Living smack on 30n 90w, I'm gonna go out on a limb and count her off.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1251. PalmBeachWeather
4:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1204. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Why are you doing this...?
You want me to remove yours right?
Max... I'm sorry... You are getting bomblasted for no reason.. I don't get it .
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5818
1250. Patrap
4:18 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
The DailyMail for Climate Science?

Really ?

Ack'

You could of at least linked to the actual article of gibberish, instead of their Home page.

Ill never get those 18.354 secs back.

Now everyone you wanted to lie to wont even stay long nuff to find the er,"story".
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1249. FunnelVortex
4:18 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1241. Patrap:


Really wouldn't count off Gabby yet.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
1248. GatorWX
4:18 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Looks like one of those early Gulf systems from the past few years (Barry, Debby, Andrea, etc).



Except it's moving.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2683
1247. RGVtropicalWx13
4:17 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1235. weatherlover94:
This season is driving me crazy. I'm about done with it

Talk about impatient. This season is about to turn around 180 degrees.
Member Since: May 30, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 448
1246. Hurricanemarian
4:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
91 looks bad

It's not going to make i

Noaa is eating crow right now as we speak
Member Since: July 10, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
1245. Astrometeor
4:16 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1139. mrmombq:
How far back do we go to find the "peak" being Sept 10th, I mean if the climate has been changing and the Hurricane season is now longer could the peak actually be later than Sept 10th?


On the flip side of things, if the season also began to start earlier (cough last year cough), then we could still average out to 9/10 for the peak.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9805
1244. PalmBeachWeather
4:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1136. Astrometeor:


Florida gets the flu? I thought that was only for cold places.

What's worked for me for years: Wash hands with soap.
south Florida is tropical... Lot's of nasty's grow here..
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5818
1243. GatorWX
4:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
The west is the best.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2683
1242. SLU
4:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Still a TS at 12z September 11th. New record should be set in 2013.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4857
1241. Patrap
4:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1240. pottery
4:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.

Or you could make your own chart.
That way, you can do anything you like to it and with it.

And leave him to do whatever he wants to do, with his.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24025
1239. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
The deadliest natural disaster in United States history struck Texas on this date in 1900.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31453
1238. DVG
4:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Glo bal-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warmin g-predictions.html
Member Since: August 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 259
1237. Tazmanian
4:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1235. weatherlover94:
This season is driving me crazy. I'm about done with it



same here
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
1236. PalmBeachWeather
4:14 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1139. mrmombq:
How far back do we go to find the "peak" being Sept 10th, I mean if the climate has been changing and the Hurricane season is now longer could the peak actually be later than Sept 10th?
Since I was a little girl mrmom...I think around 1918 , give or take
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5818
1235. weatherlover94
4:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
This season is driving me crazy. I'm about done with it
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2068
1234. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
It's going West...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
1233. Patrap
4:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Looks more like December here

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1232. wunderkidcayman
4:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1208. sar2401:

So you're saying that your models are basically the median of every other model? Boy, that takes some guts. :-)

no I have a range of numbers in each category but to make it easier and 1 number for each category which is the numbers that I have put down I'm not taking any other model its just my model thats all
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11004
1231. Stoopid1
4:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1211. FunnelVortex:
I wish the imagery in the east Atlantic had a higher frame rate. But this is what we've got, I guess.

Future Humberto:



Just about a TD now as it is. Should be upgraded this evening if the trend holds, and there's no real reason it shouldn't.
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 24 Comments: 2688
1230. Hurricane614
4:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1226. Hurricane614:


92L is looking horrible either. But it does appear it will enter a area od high shear very soon



although it is only in 5- 15 kts shear right now so its hard to say
Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 498
1229. trHUrrIXC5MMX
4:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.


Those are organizations responsible for...
Only them could be excused.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
1228. Astrometeor
4:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.


He's not changing the NHC or CSU forecasts, either.

Edit: Are you Max?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9805
1227. louisianaboy444
4:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
When it comes to the Brazil argument,you have to look at what's called the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), which is a measure of the MSLP, Temp, and SST anomalies between the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic. During positive AMM years, warmer waters are located over the Northeastern Atlantic and cooler waters over the Tropical South Atlantic. This leads to lower pressures over the Atlantic and high pressures over the South Atlantic. This helps to strengthen the meridional south-north vector wind, raises the position of the ITCZ, creates a more active Cape Verde Season and leads to dry conditions over Brazil. This has been positive over the past few years. A negative AMM features cooler water over the Atlantic and warmer waters over the south Atlantic. This would reverse the MSLP Anomalies and create anomalous northeasterlies over the MDR region. This would shove the ITCZ farther south and create positive rainfall anomalies over Brazil. This is my theory for why this season has been dull. A reversal of the AMM.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1342
1226. Hurricane614
4:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2013


92L is looking horrible either. But it does appear it will enter a area od high shear very soon

Member Since: September 6, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 498
1225. Tazmanian
4:10 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1195. wunderkidcayman:
my numbers old and new
old: 18-20 storms 12-14 hurricanes 5-7 major hurricanes then I took the median
old: 19 storms 13 hurricanes 6 major hurricanes
updated in early June

New: 17-19 storms 6-8 hurricanes 3-5 major hurricanes
then I took the median
New: 18 storms 7 hurricanes 4 major hurricanes
updated in late August

new and last one will be issued in early October



good luck with that there is no way we are going too see that many storms your forcast is all ready a big bust
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
1224. GatorWX
4:09 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Quoting 1221. wunderkidcayman:


ok so NHC CSU is not cheating, yeah they can put out Mid season outlooks but we the WU community can't. NO! I'm sorry that can't work. yes its your chart, but it is representative of the whole community and if the community wants to have their Mid-season outlooks, they should be aloud to do so.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2683
1223. GatorWX
4:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
5-15kt swly shear over ex-gabs and good vorticity. You never know. Something to watch today at least.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2683
1222. Patrap
4:07 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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