Could Climate Change Reduce the Frequency of Tracks Like Hurricane Sandy's?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:14 PM GMT on September 03, 2013

Share this Blog
57
+

We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy was a shocking experience. New Jersey rarely gets hit by hurricanes, because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. Hurricanes generally move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, due to the spin of the Earth, and the flow becomes predominately west-to-east. Hurricanes that penetrate to approximately Northern Florida's latitude typically get caught up in these westerly winds and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more in a south-to-north direction. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it--a so-called "blocking high". According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a "blocking high" near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall, and can cause winds that flow from southeast to northwest over the Northeast U.S. It is this sort of unusual flow that sucked Sandy into New Jersey and allowed the hurricane to take the most perpendicular track into this section of coast of any tropical cyclone in the historical record (Hall and Sobel, 2013.) Using historical climate data, these scientists estimated that the return period of a Category 1 or stronger storm hitting New Jersey at such an odd angle was 1-in-700-years.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes to hit Southern New Jersey, 1851 - 2012. Hurricane Sandy had a track unprecedented in the historical record. Image created by TWC's Stu Ostro using data from NOAA/CSC.


Figure 2. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Was climate change responsible for Sandy's unusual track?
Either Sandy was an extremely rare event, or else climate change has shifted the odds of such a track to make it more likely. A paper published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Elizabeth Barnes of Colorado State and co-authors, "Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms", argues that our best climate models project we should see a decrease in the type of steering patterns that brought Sandy to the coast at such an unusual angle. Of the 22 models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, 17 predict a decrease in the type of "blocking highs" responsible for Sandy's unusual track. Nineteen out of 22 of these models also predict that the jet stream will shift farther to the north, particularly in the fall. The authors argue that this jet stream shift will bring about a decrease in easterly winds south of Greenland, resulting in fewer Sandy-like storms hitting the Northeast U.S. However, Dr. Jennifer Francis, who has authored several studies linking Arctic sea ice loss to unusual jet stream patterns, noted in an email to me that "One of the strongest pieces of evidence for the study’s main conclusion is that easterly winds are projected to decrease in a large zone north of Newfoundland. The location of the strongest decreases, however, is north of the location of the block during Sandy, exactly in the region where stronger west winds would occur when blocks like this existed. This suggests that the pattern may actually cause an increase in unusually high pressures in the same location of the Sandy blocking high."


Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Commentary
While the 2013 IPCC models used in the study are the best that we have, the uncertainties are very high in the sort of projected atmospheric changes the authors are analyzing. In the current climate, the models underestimate the frequency of the type of blocking high pressure systems that led to Sandy's unusual track. Thus, we should look with suspicion upon their predictions for a decrease in blocking highs in the future--something that Barnes et al. acknowledge in their paper. In addition, Arctic sea ice loss is occurring much faster than these models predicted; in 2012, September sea ice loss was more than 1 standard deviation below where these models predicted it should be. Thus, these models may be underestimating the influence of sea ice loss on hurricane steering flow in the North Atlantic. As I discussed in an April post, "Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns", three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record low. The 1-in-700 year Hurricane Sandy track could have had its odds boosted by the 2012 record sea ice loss, one can argue, based on this research. This research, however, is disputed by Dr. Barnes in a separate study just published in Geophysical Research Letters, "Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic Amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes."

The Atlantic hurricane season has been getting longer in recent decades, in association with increasing ocean temperatures. A longer season gives the opportunity for more strong hurricanes to penetrate to the Northeast U.S. in late fall. Warmer ocean waters may also lead to an increase in strong hurricanes farther to the north, since cool ocean temperatures are a key reason why we see so few strong hurricanes affecting the Northeast. These influences would potentially offset any decrease in Sandy-like storms caused by fewer blocking highs forming in a future climate. Much more research is needed before we can be confident how climate change may or may not affect the tracks and frequency of future storms like Hurricane Sandy. One thing that is almost a sure thing: as global warming continues to cause sea levels to rise, the impacts of these storms will be worse as storm surge flooding penetrates farther inland.


Figure 4. Extent of Arctic sea ice predicted by the mean of 20 climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report (thick red line); the pink area denotes plus or minus one standard deviation from the mean. The actual levels of sea ice (thick black line) fell below one standard deviation from what the model were predicting in 2012. The older predictions from the set of models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report are shown in blue. Image credit: Stroeve et al. 2012, "Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052676.

Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms?
While the new study by Barnes et al. gives some hope that global warming might lead to fewer Sandy-like storms hitting the Northeast U.S., dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms with hurricane-force winds. As we saw with Hurricane Sandy, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased by over a factor six, increasing from an average of two such storms in the current climate to thirteen per year by 2100. Almost all of these future Western European hurricane-force storms were predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."

References
Barnes, E.A, L.M. Polvani, and A.H. Sobel, 2013, "Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms", PNAS September 3, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1308732110

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Hall, T.M., and A.H. Sobel, 2013, "The impact angle of Hurricane Sandy’s New Jersey landfall," Geophysical Research Letters 40:23122315.

"Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms", my April 2013 blog post.

"Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?" my October 2012 blog post.

Arctic Warming May Not Be Altering Jet Stream: Study
by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org, analyzing Dr. Barnes' paper disputing the link between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in the jet stream.

Quick update on 97L
The tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday morning (Invest 97L) is showing increasing signs of organization. It seemed like an atmospheric switch got thrown early this afternoon, and the storm began spinning up. Satellite loops show that 97L has developed some respectable low-level spiral bands, and we can see upper-level outflow channels opening to both the south and the north. There is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation, though, and dry air is still hampering the storm, as evidenced by surface-based outflow boundaries coming out of some of 97L's thunderstorms on its northwest flank. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. In their 2pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC bumped up the 2-day odds of development to 30%. I put these odds at 50%, and Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from 97L on Wednesday and Thursday. I'll be back Wednesday morning with an update.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1463 - 1413

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

1463. hu2007
2:42 AM GMT on September 05, 2013
nice strong band forming to the north of td 7 i think is next to a storm of 40 mph by 11pm here in my area carolina pr is cloudy and light east wind of 5mph or less
Member Since: August 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 325
1462. ncstorm
9:13 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
hey everyone..

I see we got a tropical depression finally..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14241
1461. Spartan117
8:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.


97L is looking quite sexy at the moment. Once this thing gets going I wouldn't be surprised if it got to CAT 1 status in under 24 hours.
Member Since: July 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1460. sar2401
4:31 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting taco2me61:


I agree 100% with what you are saying :o)
With all the years I have been here and watched my self I just don't think I have ever seen this before.... Now that I say this I was wondering if we are on the "Tail End" of a Very acctive Hurricane Season, and now getting back to a more Avaerage Season????

Taco :o)

Ya know, Taco, I was thinking that we entered this active hurricane period in 1995. Thats' 18 years ago,and 20 years is just an average. We're now in year 18. We've had some amazingly hyperactive seasons during the time, and it now may be that we are starting back into inactive seasons. I have no clue about why seasons are slow or hyperactive, but I get the feeling, just like humans, they get worn out and need a rest. This may actually be the "new normal" we heard so much about in 2004-2005.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 12743
1459. 7544
3:43 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
looks like 97l starting to get alot more convection at this hour red ball getting bigger does anyone know how long it will take for these two blobs merge if 97l has indeed stall thanks maybe 3hours ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
1458. RascalNag
3:37 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1455. JLPR2:
97L is looking much better on the convergence map which would correlate with the system sustaining convection.



Also, the vorts at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb look aligned. if current trend holds it should get another bump at the 2pm TWO.


Is it that time?
http://youtu.be/OnoNITE-CLc
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
1457. Saltydogbwi1
3:33 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
img src="">

Here's what I see still a broad circulation no defined center.
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 340
1456. nrtiwlnvragn
3:31 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
RSO Visible Loop
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10834
1455. JLPR2
3:31 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
97L is looking much better on the convergence map which would correlate with the system sustaining convection.



Also, the vorts at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb look aligned. if current trend holds it should get another bump at the 2pm TWO.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8482
1454. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:31 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1453. WoodyFL
3:30 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
just a tease 384 hours out.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
1452. bappit
3:29 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1436. WoodyFL:


I thought some people said there was no dry air yesterday, even though the doc said there was. What were they looking at? I could see it.

Maybe they were confused by high level cirrus. It looks like moist air, but it can be only a small layer above or in dry air. Lee Grenci did a blog on that. Bad Science and Water Vapor Imagery
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5907
1451. unknowncomic
3:28 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1443. Patrap:
SYNOPSIS 2013090400

P25L … 97L (Up to 40%)
17N, 63W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Continues to be elongated SW-NE at the beginning. Slight jump to the north side of the islands. Weaker after recurvature.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, with the NE extension becoming its own pouch after a couple days.

UKMET: Any elongation toward the NE quickly disappears as 97L develops into a strong storm, remaining as such all five days.

NAVGEM: Weak. As 97L approaches the islands, NAVGEM develops a lee cyclone on the north side, which is common. 97L itself is unable to cross the islands. Rather, the lee cyclone and 97L appear to undergo a direct cyclone interaction and perhaps merger, with the resultant circulation still south of the islands. It then dissipates completely. Note that, like ECMWF and GFS, NAVGEM develops another stronger pouch to the northeast.

HWRF-GEN: Typical for HWRF-GEN, 97L develops into a strong storm. HWRF-GEN also develops a couple of small circulations to the northeast. The first one gets absorbed by 97L, while the second maintains a bit of separation and ends up to the north of 97L at 120 hours.



ECMWF -5.4 v700 120h
GFS -4.4 v700 120h
UKMET -4.1 v700 120h
NAVGEM -3.3 v700 96h
HWGEN -3.1 v700 120h

Models still confused.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1751
1450. cat6band
3:28 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Well....to my untrained eye (very)...it seems as though this invest is fighting itself for an LLC. One to the N and one to the S. Could this be happening? Or am I way off??
Member Since: May 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 314
1449. Relix
3:27 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1442. wunderkidcayman:
Lol well looking at this well this would explain any NWterly movement
Notice between 60W and 65W



Nice! Now this is something I can get behind, plussed you Wunderkid. See? I am not all that bad I just like to joke a bit with you, relax... Life is to be enjoyed!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2642
1448. GetReal
3:27 PM GMT on September 04, 2013


It seems that 97L has a date with the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8806
1447. GatorWX
3:26 PM GMT on September 04, 2013

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2633
1446. Waltanater
3:26 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.
It would seem that the system to the east is more affected by the storm on the west. Wouldn't this suggest that the storm on the west has a lower pressure and probably more organized despite what is shown? (speculation)
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1454
1445. Drakoen
3:26 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1429. cat6band:


Where do you think the LLC is forming?


16N 65.5W
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
1444. bappit
3:25 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1433. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Im almost praying it gets a name.....too many will be brokenhearted if it does not.

We've had named systems. Names will not sate their inglorious appetites.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5907
1443. Patrap
3:25 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
SYNOPSIS 2013090400

P25L … 97L (Up to 40%)
17N, 63W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Continues to be elongated SW-NE at the beginning. Slight jump to the north side of the islands. Weaker after recurvature.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, with the NE extension becoming its own pouch after a couple days.

UKMET: Any elongation toward the NE quickly disappears as 97L develops into a strong storm, remaining as such all five days.

NAVGEM: Weak. As 97L approaches the islands, NAVGEM develops a lee cyclone on the north side, which is common. 97L itself is unable to cross the islands. Rather, the lee cyclone and 97L appear to undergo a direct cyclone interaction and perhaps merger, with the resultant circulation still south of the islands. It then dissipates completely. Note that, like ECMWF and GFS, NAVGEM develops another stronger pouch to the northeast.

HWRF-GEN: Typical for HWRF-GEN, 97L develops into a strong storm. HWRF-GEN also develops a couple of small circulations to the northeast. The first one gets absorbed by 97L, while the second maintains a bit of separation and ends up to the north of 97L at 120 hours.



ECMWF -5.4 v700 120h
GFS -4.4 v700 120h
UKMET -4.1 v700 120h
NAVGEM -3.3 v700 96h
HWGEN -3.1 v700 120h

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
1442. wunderkidcayman
3:24 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Lol well looking at this well this would explain any NWterly movement
Notice between 60W and 65W

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1441. 69Viking
3:24 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1383. SouthernIllinois:

All women try, but some are just born that way. :)

Nat


LMAO! Good morning sunshine!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 3010
1440. Waltanater
3:23 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1417. 7544:


morning all have to agree if 97l has stalled now and the east blob moving west when both merge and 97l will go right to ts in my opinion and ramp up faster this will be ineteresting to watch as it plays out stay tuned its goin to be a fun day
It won't have a problem with dry air and will have pleny of moisture generated from 2 systems now. Time to "double" that ACE value!
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1454
1439. hydrus
3:21 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1407. ricderr:
Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



looks more like two waves to me
I agree. It appears to be two separate systems..

Not according to the folks at NHC tho..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20322
1438. Patrap
3:21 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
GOM Recon Live
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
1437. unknowncomic
3:20 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Isn't there supposed to be an 11AM update from the NHC?
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1751
1436. WoodyFL
3:20 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1414. Drakoen:
Outflow expanding to the north and west in contrast to yesterday when dry air was causing the collapse of thunderstorms leading to low level outflow boundaries. The low level circulation is becoming increasingly defined.


I thought some people said there was no dry air yesterday, even though the doc said there was. What were they looking at? I could see it.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
1435. GatorWX
3:20 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Lots of rain on its way.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2633
1434. wunderkidcayman
3:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.

Yeah I think you correct right now I think the center is just on the SW leading edge of it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
1433. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Im almost praying it gets a name.....too many will be brokenhearted if it does not.
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942
1432. WoodyFL
3:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
that has really moved nw since this morning.





Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
1431. LargoFl
3:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Nam for Sunday..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
1430. weatherskink
3:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Nice rainy start here this morning . Most of the convection was been inland lately .

http://www.co.palm-beach.fl.us/webcams/bocainlet/
Member Since: September 3, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 85
1429. cat6band
3:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1414. Drakoen:
Outflow expanding to the north and west in contrast to yesterday when dry air was causing the collapse of thunderstorms leading to low level outflow boundaries. The low level circulation is becoming increasingly defined.


Where do you think the LLC is forming?
Member Since: May 11, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 314
1428. GatorWX
3:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
A little bit of banding perhaps?

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2633
1427. stormpetrol
3:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Recon should be taking off in about 2 and half hours.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7631
1426. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
And if I had a million bux.....I would have a million bux
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942
1425. unknowncomic
3:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
97L is going to affect land like Taz says. In 5-7 hours we should know the outcome of the combined or separate systems(maybe the NHC will enlighten us before that time comes).
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1751
1424. Hhunter
3:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Mergers and Acquistions
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
1423. WoodyFL
3:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.


If it could grab some moisture it could certainly help. Nothing surprises me this season.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
1422. Sfloridacat5
3:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Just as 97l gets its act together (north of Haiti), its going to dart off to the northeast.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5891
1421. will40
3:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1415. Tazmanian:




if 97L can get too a name storm you wont be able too call it OTS and it would have all ready hit PR by then and that's land


OTS is not same thing as a fish storm Tax
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4109
1420. Tazmanian
3:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1410. SouthernIllinois:
Okay so I saw a late minute re-curve of a re-curve back to the CONUS on the GFS. Is that BS or could that verify??



re call hurricane Jeanne it started too go OTS then did a loop back and made land fall in FL so yep it can
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
1419. HurricaneHunterJoe
3:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1415. Tazmanian:




if 97L can get too a name storm you wont be able too call it OTS and it would have all ready hit PR by then and that's land


True enough Taz.....
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942
1418. LargoFl
3:14 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1412. GatorWX:


I think that's pretty key.
Gee untill this makes its move we really need to watch it..should be a TS in 24 hours models say.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
1417. 7544
3:13 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1301. Waltanater:
but I think..."...these two ARE going to come together"


morning all have to agree if 97l has stalled now and the east blob moving west when both merge and 97l will go right to ts in my opinion and ramp up faster this will be ineteresting to watch as it plays out stay tuned its goin to be a fun day
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
1416. Dakster
3:13 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Thanks for the replies. I will be watching as always.

Just seems like this seasons taking a really long time to get rocking and rolling.

I wonder if that means it will last longer?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10020
1415. Tazmanian
3:13 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Quoting 1409. HurricaneHunterJoe:
GFS 6z keeps them separate systems and moves both OTS




if 97L can get too a name storm you wont be able too call it OTS and it would have all ready hit PR by then and that's land
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
1414. Drakoen
3:13 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Outflow expanding to the north and west in contrast to yesterday when dry air was causing the collapse of thunderstorms leading to low level outflow boundaries. The low level circulation is becoming increasingly defined.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
1413. LargoFl
3:12 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630

Viewing: 1463 - 1413

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.