Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L Still Disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on September 03, 2013

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A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Top sustained winds observed in the islands as of 10 am AST Tuesday were mostly below 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has been low since Monday, and is spread out, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little evidence of rotation to the echoes, and no low-level spiral bands forming. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development, though the the 12Z Tuesday balloon sounding from Guadeloupe near the center of 97L showed moist air through the entire depth of the atmosphere.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be low through Friday, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 29°C. The disturbance has not been able to generate enough thunderstorms to moisten the surrounding atmosphere much, and dry air may continue to slow down development over the next few days. The models take 97L to the west-northwest, bringing it near or over Puerto Rico or Hispaniola on Wednesday night. A track over the high mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the circulation of 97L, forcing the storm to regroup on Thursday over the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Friday, after the storm has finished its encounter with Hispaniola. This morning's 00Z run of the experimental GFDL ensemble--which produces 10 simulations with slightly varying initial conditions to create a plume of potential storm tracks--foresees that once 97L organizes into a tropical depression, it might take only two days for it to intensify into a hurricane to the north of Hispaniola. The wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this activity will likely spread to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression over the Central Bahamas on Saturday. There will be a strong trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast this weekend, which will be capable of turning 97L to the north before the storm can hit the U.S. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of 97L at 50%, and 2-day odds at 20%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Wednesday afternoon. The flight scheduled for today will likely be cancelled. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Mission, a 5-year field project utilizing two remotely crewed Global Hawk aircraft to overfly tropical storms and hurricanes, will have one of their aircraft investigate 97L today, and again on Wednesday. You can follow the progress of the aircraft using NASA's live-plane tracker map (Global Hawk AV6 is tail number NASA872, and Global Hawk AV1 is tail number NASA871.)

98L off the coast of Africa and a Yucatan Peninsula tropical wave
A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday (Invest 98L) is expected to track northwest over the Cape Verde Islands. This course will take 98L into a region of ocean where historically, very few tropical cyclones have made the long journey across the Atlantic to affect North America. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

A tropical wave over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula has a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms associated with it that is bringing heavy rains. This activity will push over the extreme Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. The wave will have two days over water to develop before moving ashore on the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Tampico on Friday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 30%, and 2-day odds at 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Kyon5:

Is it going to investigate this system this evening?
They should, the COC will be about 30 t0 40 miles SE of St. Croix, heading to the SW of Puerto Rico and the Mona canal. ,not to far, from were the plane had landed.
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GH has no sonde system aboard, as other data is collected via radar.

I. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0, NO SONDE SYSTEM
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
I would watch that mlc in the ne Yucatan for the next few hours as it could get going with the typical convection that develops in the Yucatan. It's interesting for sure.
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Here is the closet bouy to the action around 97L:

Station 42060
NDBC
Location: 16.332N 63.24W
Date: Tue, 3 Sep 2013 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: E (80°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (71°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.79 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.1 F
Dew Point: 76.1 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

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www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon

Dropsonde data from NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) mission does not currently appear in our recon system. However, our experimental manual decoder in our recon system in development, which appears here, can manually decode some of these sondes which are archived here with all other sondes from 2013. (Some data may be added manually here after a mission ends.)

To track GlobalHawk unmanned aircraft in real time, please use NASA's viewer here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
POD for Tomorrow

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 031442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 16.8N 65.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. FIX MISSION AT 05/1800Z NEAR 19.5N 68.5W IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20.0N 94.5W AT 05/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: THE INVEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AT 03/2100Z
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1100Z.


4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
F. EP: 1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W
L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Has there been any infromation, other than position, from the Global Hawk?
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Here it comes to view.
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3. REMARKS: THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. NASA 871 TAKE-OFF: 03/1100Z
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1100Z, 03 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1500Z, 03 SEP; 25.0 N, 68.0 W
F. EP: 0600Z, 4 SEPT; 25.0 N, 68.0 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1100Z, 04 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0, NO SONDE SYSTEM
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF TD
CIRCULATION IN BOX BOUNDED BY 25.0N 68.0W
17.0N 68.0W, 14.0N 55.0W, 19.0N 52.0W
FOLLOWED BY BUTTERFLY WITHIN REGION OF
CONVECTION ~ 200 NM RADIUS FROM 18.0N 67.5W
4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- BACK TO BACK GH MISSIONS:
A. NA871 LANDING, 1100 Z, 04 SEP
B. NA872 TAKE OFF 1500Z, 04 SEP

Follow the NASA-871 Global Hawk Mission here
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 599. GeorgiaStormz:



97L's roll is back


This sentence is too short for me (as a German) to figure out what you're meaning, lol. Several translations possible.
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According to the latest maps for 97L, the 850mmb and 700mb vorticity are below 15N. The 500m vorticity looks weak. 97L is developing slowly.
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
If it keep this track COC will cross over the over SW Tip o Puerto Rico then to the Mona Canal and into the "flat" terrain of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, and towards southern Bahamas....
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Experimental Penn State WRF EnKF model:

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Quoting 591. HuracandelCaribe:
Buoy north of 97L


Surface observations continue to indicate things trying to come to together. Whether or not it will completely is anyone's guess.
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602. JRRP
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AF304 made it to St. Croix


000
URNT10 KNHC 031908
97779 19084 30184 66100 76300 99005 70781 /5760
RMK AF304 WXWXA 130903155320304 OB 07
LAST REPORT
;

Lat/Lon bolded

well....
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Quoting 595. Kyon5:

Is it going to investigate this system this evening?


Not scheduled, invest mission is scheduled for tomorrow.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
REMAIN OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM VENEZUELA
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
GREATLY ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PUERTO RICO BEGINNING IN
THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY AND QUICKLY SPREAD TO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE ISLAND BY MID-AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTHEAST...AREAS OF
CONVECTION WERE SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN APEX OF THE TROUGH NOW
JUST INSIDE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT CURRENT RATE OF
MOVEMENT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WOULD REACH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY TONIGHT AND SPREAD INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND LATER
TONIGHT...AND INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH ACROSS PUERTO RICO EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THEY
DIFFER IN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY TO EXPECT AFTER PASSAGE. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
UPSTREAM OF OR OVER OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS ABOUT A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IT DOING SO IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO
THE HURRICANE CENTER. IN EITHER CASE...IT WOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS
TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY TO COME IN BANDS OR AREAS THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND RESIDENTS SHOULD NOT EXPECT THE NEXT 72 HOURS TO CARRY
CONTINUOUS RAINS DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHES 100 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
AREAS BY FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING AT 10 AM AST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF IS WETTER AT LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THIS SCENARIO BECAUSE THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS
SO MUCH MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. ALSO THE GFS HAS INITIALIZED
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TOO LOW THIS MORNING BY ABOUT ONE QUARTER
INCH. DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING CONVECTION AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS CHANGED FROM LESS MOISTURE
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE FORMING TO THE NORTHWEST THAT NOT ONLY PULLS MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALSO CAUSES WINDS AT
700 MB TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST OF SOUTH. THIS OUTCOME IS LESS
CERTAIN...BUT RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER.
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Quoting 592. barbamz:


It's just what I shyly tried to utter some hour earlier with the back up of my favourite TPW, lol:





97L's roll is back
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Quoting 568. Levi32:
The NHC did not mention dry air in relation to 97L anymore in the latest TWO. Again, dry air was never the problem.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY.
I believe they mentioned dry air as being a problem on some past twos in the last 48 to 72 hours. They said it was in the mid-level. Looks like that issue has been resolved.
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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8042
Quoting 569. LargoFl:
I am going to buck the trend and go with the Bams model..97 IS shallow and that model is very good with shallow systems..if it makes it under cuba instead of turning north Bams wins..


A little hard to buck the trend with such a tight model cluster otherwise but you never know; I suspect that the current cluster is taking into account the timing of the trof sweeping down and assumes that it will pick up 97L.

However, if the trof flattens out or the wave stays weak, it could miss the anticipated turn and slip under Hispanola.......Almost a double edged sword; if a TD does not form before reaching Hispanola or Cuba, the land interaction will prevent it from further organization at that time. The next 24-36 hours should give us a better idea of where we stand.
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595. Kyon5

Quoting 593. nrtiwlnvragn:
AF304 made it to St. Croix


000
URNT10 KNHC 031908
97779 19084 30184 66100 76300 99005 70781 /5760
RMK AF304 WXWXA 130903155320304 OB 07
LAST REPORT
;

Lat/Lon bolded
Is it going to investigate this system this evening?
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Quoting 580. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would appear as though the FIM and GFS would want to transfer the energy that is associated with 97L into the wave East of the Lesser Antilles.



Run the loop and tell me what you guys think. Link
They are not the only one either...
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AF304 made it to St. Croix


000
URNT10 KNHC 031908
97779 19084 30184 66100 76300 99005 70781 /5760
RMK AF304 WXWXA 130903155320304 OB 07
LAST REPORT
;

Lat/Lon bolded
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Quoting 580. GTstormChaserCaleb:
It would appear as though the FIM and GFS would want to transfer the energy that is associated with 97L into the wave East of the Lesser Antilles.



Run the loop and tell me what you guys think. Link


It's just what I shyly tried to utter some hours earlier with the back up of my favourite TPW, lol:


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Buoy north of 97L
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GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2013



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 23.4N 75.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 08.09.2013 23.4N 75.3W WEAK

12UTC 08.09.2013 24.2N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2013 25.5N 75.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2013 26.5N 74.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 031648


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New event. Severe Thunderstorm Warning from 9/3/2013 2:59 PM to 4:00 PM EDT for Horry County. More information
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-040815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0005.130904T1400Z-130906T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
245 PM AST TUE SEP 3 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS

* FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* A SLOW MOVING TROUGH STRETCHING FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE AFFECTING THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH
SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES AND WILL BE CARRYING AREAS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW OF MOIST AIR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

* SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FREQUENCY...AMOUNT AND
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.
URBAN AREAS AND MANY STREAMS IN THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. SOME MAINSTEM RIVERS MAY ALSO
FLOOD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FIRST AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LATER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS EXPECTED
BEFORE FRIDAY MORNING ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASING RISK OF MUDSLIDES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE RAINS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

SNELL
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Quoting 553. ncstorm:
looks like the Euro is trying to take 97L into Florida..no NE out to sea-last frame

big hurricane to
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 50 Comments: 82401
Don't 97L go thru DMIN this evening? If I have that right. I know on some other waves DMIN hurt them. I may have this all wrong, just asking.

sheri
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

VALID SEP 03/1200 UTC THRU SEP 07/0000 UTC

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
A STRONGER/SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHEAST. THEREFORE A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED.


WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 12Z NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE IDEA IS FOR SOMETHING WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE WEAK STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE...TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE NAM APPEARS
TOO DEVELOPED WHILE THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS LITTLE TO
NO DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED DUE TO POOR RUN-TO-RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND DUE TO THE POORLY RESOLVED NATURE OF THE ONGOING
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT PREFERENCE IS FOR SOMETHING WEAK AND IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD...AGAINST THE MORE DEVELOPED NAM GIVEN A LACK
OF SUPPORT FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION.

THE NHC HAS GIVEN THIS DISTURBANCE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALWAYS REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS
FOR THE LATEST ON THIS SYSTEM.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
It would appear as though the FIM and GFS would want to transfer the energy that is associated with 97L into the wave East of the Lesser Antilles.



Run the loop and tell me what you guys think. Link
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98L went poof this like 94L 96L and now 98L
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576. JRRP
over Dom.Rep now
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Quoting 572. nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like mid-level swirl over tip of Yucatan.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmhmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FLZ038-031945-
FLAGLER-
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
FLAGLER COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

AT 309 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER BUNNELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ESPANOLA...BUNNELL AND
FLAGLER BEACH THROUGH 345 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

LAT...LON 2942 8113 2941 8115 2927 8114 2926 8116
2926 8123 2940 8140 2955 8129 2948 8111
2944 8110 2942 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 299DEG 14KT 2944 8126

$$

TRABERT
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Quoting 558. Grothar:


I watched a weeks marathon of Perry Mason and you are all still watching 97L. :)

I have to go. Murder she wrote marathon is starting.

Everybody have fun.

P.S. The one thing I know is this is not going west!!!!
So what is going to bring it north Groth??? Have you tried Golden Girls??
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 478
Looks like mid-level swirl over tip of Yucatan.
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I think selling hurricane insurance is the best job one can have right now...especially with the residuals.
You'd never have to pay a claim.
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Surprised no one is posting satellite imagery of 97L. :P

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I am going to buck the trend and go with the Bams model..97 IS shallow and that model is very good with shallow systems..if it makes it under cuba instead of turning north Bams wins..
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The NHC did not mention dry air in relation to 97L anymore in the latest TWO. Again, dry air was never the problem.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26685
Quoting 566. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Good afternoon most wisest of wise......I am learning from you. I watched the entire Season 8 of " 24 " yesterday........my eyes hurt so BADDDDDDDD!...LOL


One of the greatest shows.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.