Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L Still Disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on September 03, 2013

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A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Top sustained winds observed in the islands as of 10 am AST Tuesday were mostly below 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has been low since Monday, and is spread out, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little evidence of rotation to the echoes, and no low-level spiral bands forming. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development, though the the 12Z Tuesday balloon sounding from Guadeloupe near the center of 97L showed moist air through the entire depth of the atmosphere.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be low through Friday, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 29°C. The disturbance has not been able to generate enough thunderstorms to moisten the surrounding atmosphere much, and dry air may continue to slow down development over the next few days. The models take 97L to the west-northwest, bringing it near or over Puerto Rico or Hispaniola on Wednesday night. A track over the high mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the circulation of 97L, forcing the storm to regroup on Thursday over the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Friday, after the storm has finished its encounter with Hispaniola. This morning's 00Z run of the experimental GFDL ensemble--which produces 10 simulations with slightly varying initial conditions to create a plume of potential storm tracks--foresees that once 97L organizes into a tropical depression, it might take only two days for it to intensify into a hurricane to the north of Hispaniola. The wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this activity will likely spread to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression over the Central Bahamas on Saturday. There will be a strong trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast this weekend, which will be capable of turning 97L to the north before the storm can hit the U.S. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of 97L at 50%, and 2-day odds at 20%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Wednesday afternoon. The flight scheduled for today will likely be cancelled. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Mission, a 5-year field project utilizing two remotely crewed Global Hawk aircraft to overfly tropical storms and hurricanes, will have one of their aircraft investigate 97L today, and again on Wednesday. You can follow the progress of the aircraft using NASA's live-plane tracker map (Global Hawk AV6 is tail number NASA872, and Global Hawk AV1 is tail number NASA871.)

98L off the coast of Africa and a Yucatan Peninsula tropical wave
A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday (Invest 98L) is expected to track northwest over the Cape Verde Islands. This course will take 98L into a region of ocean where historically, very few tropical cyclones have made the long journey across the Atlantic to affect North America. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

A tropical wave over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula has a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms associated with it that is bringing heavy rains. This activity will push over the extreme Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. The wave will have two days over water to develop before moving ashore on the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Tampico on Friday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 30%, and 2-day odds at 20%.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 50. scottsvb:



Explain how would you know what scientists are doing and what things the public don't know about do? Let alone what Nasa does it secret is alot of things. Only thing we need to know from Nasa,Military and Gov is what we need to know. Even that stupid John Kerry said that the other day. Also, unmanned aircraft? what are they sending out drones to the atlantic waters? Come on...


Yes, they are sending out drones into the Atlantic. Link

But seriously, there is no weather conspiracy here. Evidence like "we don't know they aren't doing it" is no evidence at all.
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Quoting 57. nrtiwlnvragn:
50. scottsvb

The person who thinks we are not smart enough to develop models to forecast weather thinks we are smart enought to figure out how to control it?


our models are not to be trusted past 3-5 days because they are prone to errors but yet we can manipulate the weather?..dont he think if we could manipulate the weather, we could let those same weather models know that as well so they wouldnt be prone to errors
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 AM EDT Tuesday 3 September 2013
Condition:Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:64.6°F
Dewpoint:54.0°F
Humidity:68%
Wind:NW 15 gust 22 mph


nice cool day today feeling like fall
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Quoting 47. washingaway:


I give the blob at the Gap an 80% chance of going shrimp, or 'coma' by 5pm.
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Quoting 57. nrtiwlnvragn:
50. scottsvb

The person who thinks we are not smart enough to develop models to forecast weather thinks we are smart enought to figure out how to control it?


huh?
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Ha ha ha XD
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Quoting 37. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Teddy. If the ENSO forecasts sustain about 2014 being another neutral year,it means the forecasts will be trimmed down after what we know what is occurring in 2013.


If we head into 2014 and if absolutely nothing is different then that's possible.
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The person who thinks we are not smart enough to develop models to forecast weather thinks we are smart enought to figure out how to control it?




just needed to add to the above....TA DA DA BOOM!
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Quoting 50. scottsvb:



Explain how would you know what scientists are doing and what things the public don't know about do? Let alone what Nasa does it secret is alot of things. Only thing we need to know from Nasa,Military and Gov is what we need to know. Even that stupid John Kerry said that the other day. Also, unmanned aircraft? what are they sending out drones to the atlantic waters? Come on...


They're too busy trying to cover up the fake moon landings and Roswell to bother with that.. ;)
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Repost

Hey guys I knew it I know and see 97L if 97L can pull that convective ball on that NE side of that COC and continue building that convection then its good



Link



Link

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11167
50. scottsvb

The person who thinks we are not smart enough to develop models to forecast weather thinks we are smart enought to figure out how to control it?
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LOL so funny XD
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I trust my eyes


mr teddy...it has truly been a pleasure watching your growth on here.....if that is not the best answer to a question on here then i have missed it.....you owned your answer...you backed it up with evidence....i give you major props....
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Thanks Doc!
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 031442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 16.8N 65.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. FIX MISSION AT 05/1800Z NEAR 19.5N 68.5W IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20.0N 94.5W AT 05/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: THE INVEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AT 03/2100Z
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1100Z.



4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
F. EP: 1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W
L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114759
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 16.8N 65.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. FIX MISSION AT 05/1800Z NEAR 19.5N 68.5W IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
B. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
20.0N 94.5W AT 05/1730Z.

3. REMARKS: THE INVEST FOR THIS AREA TODAY AT 03/2100Z
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1100Z.


4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
F. EP: 1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W
L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP
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Quoting 42. WoodyFL:


lol


I know the ultra zonic atmospheric wave generating device on the roof has been just humming along maybe I should turn it off
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Quoting 35. Xyrus2000:


Please don't encourage conspiracy theory nonsense. We are no where near the level of technology required to reliably prevent tropical system formation, let alone doing so from a single unmanned aircraft.



Explain how would you know what scientists are doing and what things the public don't know about do? Let alone what Nasa does it secret is alot of things. Only thing we need to know from Nasa,Military and Gov is what we need to know. Even that stupid John Kerry said that the other day. Also, unmanned aircraft? what are they sending out drones to the atlantic waters? Come on...
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Quoting 39. ricderr:
ahem......young my teddy.....you're trusting a 9 month weather realted prediction????? LOL....i don't even trust one that is 7 days out


I trust my eyes. The ENSO is actually predicted by the CFS to switch back to a El Nino, or borderline, state. Climate models aren't something you can stop at 7 days at say "anything beyond that is unreliable." They're not the global models. The thing is though, most - if not all - of the models have been showing for the past two years at least a switch back into an El Nino state, the CFS and ECMWF being the most notable. This has failed to materialize, and we're actually closer to a La Nina state. We've been in a cool/neutral state ever since the 2011 hurricane season and it's because the PDO has failed to switch from a negative phase to a positive phase in my opinion.

Just going off history, multi-year neutral/cool years can be just as adverse in the Atlantic as an El Nino would be. Think 1977, which is proving to be similar to this year in all basins.
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Quoting 43. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Warning - Off topic

Awesome look of Milkyway from the surface of Mars


Now thats funny.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
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Quoting 43. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Warning - Off topic

Awesome look of Milkyway from the surface of Mars


Lol of the day :)
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97L has been such a pain in the *** I would keep an eye on this one till its in the tropical graveyard-(whereever that is.)
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1780
Hey guys I knew it I know and see 97L if 97L can pull that convective ball on that NE side of that COC and continue building that convection then its good



Link



Link

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11167
Warning - Off topic

Awesome look of Milkyway from the surface of Mars
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Quoting 40. Progster:


C'mon. Obviously its the DWUBTADIE program at work!

(Disappoint Weather Underground Bloggers Through African Dust Injections Experiment).


lol
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Not sure if anyone posted this yesterday but this is what the experimental 15km resolution GFS/EnKf is doing with 97L - potential threat to Bermuda. Forecasting a hurricane from it. Also note is also onboard with what GFS/Euro/Fim-9 were showing on 0Z runs last night...Cape Verde System.

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Quoting 35. Xyrus2000:


Please don't encourage conspiracy theory nonsense. We are no where near the level of technology required to reliably prevent tropical system formation, let alone doing so from a single unmanned aircraft.


C'mon. Obviously its the DWUBTADIE program at work!

(Disappoint Weather Underground Bloggers Through African Dust Injections Experiment).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ahem......young my teddy.....you're trusting a 9 month weather realted prediction????? LOL....i don't even trust one that is 7 days out
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Please don't encourage conspiracy theory nonsense. We are no where near the level of technology required to reliably prevent tropical system formation, let alone doing so from a single unmanned aircraft.


ahem.....i guess you have never read the blog or comments of one of our very own who has...in his mind of course....invented such a device that could wipe out all tropical systems and save energy to boot!..... :-)
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Quoting 33. CybrTeddy:
NASA isn't messing with the weather, the adverse affects by messing around with fire could do serious harm. Remember, hurricanes do serve a purpose. They cool off SSTs, bring heat to the poles, disburse heat across the Atlantic. If you take away the hurricane element something has to disburse the heat across the Atlantic, which in its own end could be even worse for people if you'd allow hurricanes to go out to sea.

The answer isn't with NASA, it's simply a multi-year La Nina crossed with a continual warm AMO and -PDO. We're experiencing now what we saw in the 70s, loads of weak storms with one or two really noticeable ones. Looking at the current ENSO set-up, it's likely this will continue into next year.


Hi Teddy. If the ENSO forecasts sustain about 2014 being another neutral year,it means the forecasts will be trimmed down after what we know what is occurring in 2013.
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"These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola."


GT....a good point....tropical systems...and especially those affecting the CONUS will always be the big player among this site and many others...however many other weather related events are more costly both in lives and dollars



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Quoting 15. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I wondered that same thing the other night and was thinking back to cloud seeding. Anything more is speculation from our point of view. It's ok though, they are NASA and they are allowed to do that. I just hope that something like that wouldn't backfire.


Please don't encourage conspiracy theory nonsense. We are no where near the level of technology required to reliably prevent tropical system formation, let alone doing so from a single unmanned aircraft.
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After being stripped earlier this morning,TAFB adds low at 12z analysis.

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NASA isn't messing with the weather, the adverse affects by messing around with fire could do serious harm. Remember, hurricanes do serve a purpose. They cool off SSTs, bring heat to the poles, disburse heat across the Atlantic. If you take away the hurricane element something has to disburse the heat across the Atlantic, which in its own end could be even worse for people than if you'd simply allow hurricanes to go out to sea.

The answer isn't with NASA, it's simply a multi-year La Nina crossed with a continual warm AMO and -PDO. We're experiencing now what we saw in the 70s, loads of weak storms with one or two really noticeable ones. Looking at the current ENSO set-up, it's likely this will continue into next year.
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Quoting 27. GTstormChaserCaleb:
There is a ridge overhead that could continue moving it west, considering it stays rather weak.


I think if the system stays kinda weak but slight more organized than what it is now..it will make it south of Hispaniola. This will be a slow mover through Thurs.
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Thanks Jeff, happy Tuesday...
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so what we are saying is that this isn't going due west and hitting the Cayman islands? Somebody will be disappointed.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting 10. scottsvb:
Sometimes you have to wonder what Nasa is putting into the atmosphere when they are flying out there that is secret to the public (that we won't know about for years to come) to keep down Tropical Storms and hurricanes. Their mission is for research. I know there been many things they've tried in the past. Not saying they are doing it but it could be classified. hmmmm :~

Who in their right mind would want to mess with mother nature like that? Haven't rivers been diverted in the past only to reclaim their original paths? What about the sea reclaiming its place where it has been kept back by walls etc.? I think men need to realize that they are "mighty" but not "Almighty"
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friday sept 13
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Quoting 24. LargoFl:
There is a ridge overhead that could continue moving it west, considering it stays rather weak.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7569
Quoting 23. Dakster:


I hope there are not. Somehow I don't think messing with mother nature on a large scale is a good thing.

Even some small scale attempts haven't been all that great either. (Like Lake Okeechobee and the Canal system in Florida)

I like the saying in Jurassic Park - Somehow nature always finds a way.


if she does i hope its right under capitol hill
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Quoting 13. Dakster:
Nice update. Still waiting to see how this season will pan out. Are we not approaching (rapidly) the alledged peak of the season?

Where's that graph?


10 days from now

then its all down hill from there
till secondary peak mid oct
then focus will be nw carb
gom sw tropical atlantic
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37025
Quoting 10. scottsvb:
Sometimes you have to wonder what Nasa is putting into the atmosphere when they are flying out there that is secret to the public (that we won't know about for years to come) to keep down Tropical Storms and hurricanes. Their mission is for research. I know there been many things they've tried in the past. Not saying they are doing it but it could be classified. hmmmm :~


I hope there are not. Somehow I don't think messing with mother nature on a large scale is a good thing.

Even some small scale attempts haven't been all that great either. (Like Lake Okeechobee and the Canal system in Florida)

I like the saying in Jurassic Park - Somehow nature always finds a way.
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22. 7544
Quoting 2. LargoFl:
thanks doc..........


hi largo woulndt that high start to push that systaem more to the west tia
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Quoting 19. scottsvb:

Yep, but every year they come up with a couple different things to try/use.


Cloud seeding is becoming commercial, unfortunately.

Link
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Quoting 13. Dakster:
Nice update. Still waiting to see how this season will pan out. Are we not approaching (rapidly) the alledged peak of the season?

Where's that graph?em>


It's the Chart silly boy
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Quoting 16. Torito:


Read this? It has happened before even though it pretty much failed... Link

Yep, but every year they come up with a couple different things to try/use.
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Thank You Dr. As much as we like to track hurricanes on here, no news (so far) is good news for this time of the year.

Only hoping people will not become complacent for the rest of this season or next year if we do not see any major landfalls this year in the Caribbean or US.
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thanks doc! you are very much appreciated
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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