Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L Still Disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on September 03, 2013

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A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Top sustained winds observed in the islands as of 10 am AST Tuesday were mostly below 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has been low since Monday, and is spread out, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little evidence of rotation to the echoes, and no low-level spiral bands forming. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development, though the the 12Z Tuesday balloon sounding from Guadeloupe near the center of 97L showed moist air through the entire depth of the atmosphere.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be low through Friday, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 29°C. The disturbance has not been able to generate enough thunderstorms to moisten the surrounding atmosphere much, and dry air may continue to slow down development over the next few days. The models take 97L to the west-northwest, bringing it near or over Puerto Rico or Hispaniola on Wednesday night. A track over the high mountains of Hispaniola would disrupt the circulation of 97L, forcing the storm to regroup on Thursday over the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Friday, after the storm has finished its encounter with Hispaniola. This morning's 00Z run of the experimental GFDL ensemble--which produces 10 simulations with slightly varying initial conditions to create a plume of potential storm tracks--foresees that once 97L organizes into a tropical depression, it might take only two days for it to intensify into a hurricane to the north of Hispaniola. The wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles islands on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this activity will likely spread to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression over the Central Bahamas on Saturday. There will be a strong trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast this weekend, which will be capable of turning 97L to the north before the storm can hit the U.S. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of 97L at 50%, and 2-day odds at 20%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Wednesday afternoon. The flight scheduled for today will likely be cancelled. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Mission, a 5-year field project utilizing two remotely crewed Global Hawk aircraft to overfly tropical storms and hurricanes, will have one of their aircraft investigate 97L today, and again on Wednesday. You can follow the progress of the aircraft using NASA's live-plane tracker map (Global Hawk AV6 is tail number NASA872, and Global Hawk AV1 is tail number NASA871.)

98L off the coast of Africa and a Yucatan Peninsula tropical wave
A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday (Invest 98L) is expected to track northwest over the Cape Verde Islands. This course will take 98L into a region of ocean where historically, very few tropical cyclones have made the long journey across the Atlantic to affect North America. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 20%.

A tropical wave over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula has a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms associated with it that is bringing heavy rains. This activity will push over the extreme Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. The wave will have two days over water to develop before moving ashore on the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Tampico on Friday. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 30%, and 2-day odds at 20%.

Jeff Masters

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117. JRRP
97L
16.5n
63.5w
Link

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 115. CaneHunter031472:
I just find this season mind blowing. We are just 7 days from the highest point of the peak of this season, and there's nothing significant to talk about. I just wonder what completely threw a wrench on this season and if it's going to hold. This season it's going to be one for the books regarding lack of formation.


More energy for next season. Next season is going to be huge (maybe).
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
I just find this season mind blowing. We are just 7 days from the highest point of the peak of this season, and there's nothing significant to talk about. I just wonder what completely threw a wrench on this season and if it's going to hold. This season it's going to be one for the books regarding lack of formation.
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Quoting 104. HuracandelCaribe:
Look at the wind direction at each island, for the first time the wind barbs show a perfect wind rotation.
If you look, there are TWO wind fields. These fields are always impressive on the scats. And they've been with the storm(s) since day 1.
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Quoting Naga5000:


Yes, they are sending out drones into the Atlantic. Link

But seriously, there is no weather conspiracy here. Evidence like "we don't know they aren't doing it" is no evidence at all.


Also sending out NOAA WP-3D(NOAA42) which looks to be leaving about 2hrs after Global Hawk AV1

Link
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Quoting 110. RitaEvac:
97L gonna merge with Yucatan system and create the biggest storm in man kind history....


Sounds about accurate of something you see from doomcasters on the blog.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 107. scottsvb:
FunnelVortex Block, Love Ignoring the 13 year olds


I'm not 13... How old are you?
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
97L gonna merge with Yucatan system and create the biggest storm in man kind history....



Sarcasm Flag: ON
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Quoting 99. StormTrackerScott:


That definitely looks like the LLC far removed from where the NHC has it pegged and it's moving due west. Maybe our best performing model the Euro is right on. Euro has 97L in the NW Caribbean in a few days.
Quoting 70. stormpetrol:


llc of 97l near 14.2n/63w
These products tend to agree with your guys thinking.

850 mb. vort.



700 mb. vort.



500 mb. vort.



Anti-Cyclone over top of it.



Lower convergence still strung out, which has been one of the problems with this system.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
Quoting 105. wunderkidcayman:


Actually that's WSW look at it again from as soon as first daylight image comes up to now you can see it goes from 14.6N 62.7W to 14.2N 63.2W



Don't focus in the little swirl, focus in the whole rotation that is moving WNW.
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FunnelVortex Block, Love Ignoring the 13 year olds
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting 99. StormTrackerScott:


That definitely looks like the LLC far removed from where the NHC has it pegged and it's moving due west. Maybe our best performing model the Euro is right on. Euro has 97L in the NW Caribbean in a few days.


Actually that's WSW look at it again from as soon as first daylight image comes up to now you can see it goes from 14.6N 62.7W to 14.2N 63.2W

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12502
Look at the wind direction at each island, for the first time the wind barbs show a perfect wind rotation.
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Last comment I will make on this is.

What do you all think Mets do? What about Mets that go on and get a DR Degree do? Do people think we just sit at a desk and do paper work and look at weather models and radar,sat loops? Well yeah we do, lolz.... but to be serious, we do research, Alot out in the field and not just weather ballons. Some are through aircraft and other things. Some are things through Nasa on preventing hurricanes. From what I know, we don't have the technology to divert storms..but we hear rumors we can hamper development.....how? I don't know. Even Tornaodo chasing isn't about seeing Tornados or getting soundings and data from them, we been doing that for decades, it's about seeing how we can kill off a Tornado from not only killing 1 early on but preventing such cases. We are not Star Trek technology yet in having a tornado cap in the atmosphere but we are doing research in ways to help prevent such storms. Anyways, there are things we do put into the atmosphere that I know of to try to hamper things, all Mets know that, but we don't do it in large amounts, it's very-very minimal and for researches. Now what the gov and Nasa does, I don't work for them, but it's good to speculate and speculation is not conspiracy, it's speculation like most do in here on where a system might develop and where it goes and how strong it gets. :)
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting 70. stormpetrol:


llc of 97l near 14.2n/63w




that spin at 18N and 55W is doing march better then 97L is it looks like that one is heading out two sea the the olny thing is Bermuda may be in the path of the spin at 18N 55W
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Quoting 70. stormpetrol:

llc of 97l near 14.2n/63w

That definitely looks like the LLC far removed from where the NHC has it pegged and it's moving due west. Maybe our best performing model the Euro is right on. Euro has 97L in the NW Caribbean in a few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 97. CaneHunter031472:


A Windows based storm destroyer in 05? That would explain Katrina and Rita. Actually the whole 2005 season.


LOL... The new Windows sucks...
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 70. stormpetrol:


llc of 97l near 14.2n/63w


That definitely looks like the LLC far removed from where the NHC has it pegged and it's moving due west. Maybe our best performing model the Euro is right on. Euro has 97L in the NW Caribbean in a few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 55. ricderr:
I trust my eyes


mr teddy...it has truly been a pleasure watching your growth on here.....if that is not the best answer to a question on here then i have missed it.....you owned your answer...you backed it up with evidence....i give you major props....


You flatter me. :)

What's interesting though is that the SST's in the 3.4 region have warmed noticeably in the last few weeks, and the 1+2, 3, and 4 regions have also warmed to some degree. Perhaps it's a trend? You can have an El Nino in a -PDO state, but there is evidence to suggest a -PDO helps suppress SSTs across the equator leading to an increased likelihood of an La Nina. ENSO is hard to predict.

For example, here's the last 20 year PDO phases. In bold are the El Nino years.

1993 0.05 0.19 0.76 1.21 2.13 2.34 2.35 2.69 1.56 1.41 1.24 1.07
1994 1.21 0.59 0.80 1.05 1.23 0.46 0.06 -0.79 -1.36 -1.32 -1.96 -1.79
1995 -0.49 0.46 0.75 0.83 1.46 1.27 1.71 0.21 1.16 0.47 -0.28 0.16
1996 0.59 0.75 1.01 1.46 2.18 1.10 0.77 -0.14 0.24 -0.33 0.09 -0.03
1997 0.23 0.28 0.65 1.05 1.83 2.76 2.35 2.79 2.19 1.61 1.12 0.67
1998 0.83 1.56 2.01 1.27 0.70 0.40 -0.04 -0.22 -1.21 -1.39 -0.52 -0.44
1999 -0.32 -0.66 -0.33 -0.41 -0.68 -1.30 -0.66 -0.96 -1.53 -2.23 -2.05 -1.63
2000 -2.00 -0.83 0.29 0.35 -0.05 -0.44 -0.66 -1.19 -1.24 -1.30 -0.53 0.52
2001 .60 .29 0.45 -0.31 -0.30 -0.47 -1.31 -0.77 -1.37 -1.37 -1.26 -0.93
2002** 0.27 -0.64 -0.43 -0.32 -0.63 -0.35 -0.31 0.60 0.43 0.42 1.51 2.10
2003** 2.09 1.75 1.51 1.18 0.89 0.68 0.96 0.88 0.01 0.83 0.52 0.33
2004** 0.43 0.48 0.61 0.57 0.88 0.04 0.44 0.85 0.75 -0.11 -0.63 -0.17
2005** 0.44 0.81 1.36 1.03 1.86 1.17 0.66 0.25 -0.46 -1.32 -1.50 0.20
2006** 1.03 0.66 0.05 0.40 0.48 1.04 0.35 -0.65 -0.94 -0.05 -0.22 0.14
2007** 0.01 0.04 -0.36 0.16 -0.10 0.09 0.78 0.50 -0.36 -1.45 -1.08 -0.58
2008** -1.00 -0.77 -0.71 -1.52 -1.37 -1.34 -1.67 -1.70 -1.55 -1.76 -1.25 -0.87
2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52 0.27 -0.40 0.08
2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21
2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79
2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48
2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25


As you can tell, many of those were indeed +PDO years, and some others that were -PDO switched over to a +PDO come August or September. Exceptions including 2006, which switched over to a -PDO in August/September. I didn't include 2002 and 2004, they were oddball years with Modoki like conditions across the Pacific. But you'll also note that 2010-2013 have almost been exclusively focused in the -PDO range. Eventually I imagine it'll collapse and give way to an El Nino, but it might not be until mid-2014 or it may happen next month for all I know.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
Quoting 90. redwagon:


I don't know what came of it, but in 05 Bill Gates did invest billions in a storm-destroyer attempt.


A Windows based storm destroyer in 05? That would explain Katrina and Rita. Actually the whole 2005 season.
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Global Hawk will be at 97L soon
Link
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Quoting 94. hurricanes2018:
invest 98L MOVE back to the sw at the end

Yeah the ridge build back
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12502
invest 98L MOVE back to the sw at the end
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 81116
Quoting 81. 7544:
is 97l suppose to make the turn to the wnw today or is it bein delayed ? tia
Quoting 91. wunderkidcayman:


Models said it was to turn WNW but that's not the case and following the steering that WNW movement ain't going to happen anytime soon plus models had based it on that 97L would develop and intensify which it is not



And models are also based on BEST track location which is not near the actual location
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12502
Quoting 81. 7544:
is 97l suppose to make the turn to the wnw today or is it bein delayed ? tia


I think that 97l is waiting for confirmation from the control tower before the course change. That could explain the delay IMO
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Quoting 81. 7544:
is 97l suppose to make the turn to the wnw today or is it bein delayed ? tia


Models said it was to turn WNW but that's not the case and following the steering that WNW movement ain't going to happen anytime soon plus models had based it on that 97L would develop and intensify which it is not

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12502
Quoting 78. scottsvb:

again, post above, I know about Hawk mission, I'm talking about using drones for seeding clouds or hampering development, we don't use drones for that stuff


I don't know what came of it, but in 05 Bill Gates did invest billions in a storm-destroyer attempt.
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Quoting 83. daddyjames:


goodness, yes - 40 years ago and counting. Geez, can we let this go?


Yes we can let it go.... the whole point was that, there are things the gov and nasa could be doing for research on that ..We the Public.. don't know about.. and won't for years.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
other day with no name storms and we are getting closer and closer too SEP 10th the peak of the season
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Quoting 83. daddyjames:


goodness, yes - 40 years ago and counting. Geez, can we let this go?
I know I'm just saying, not trying to argue with anyone.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
Quoting 67. Naga5000:


Yes, they are sending out drones into the Atlantic. Link

But seriously, there is no weather conspiracy here. Evidence like "we don't know they aren't doing it" is no evidence at all.


People who belive in weather conspiracies are generally attention-craving loser idiots, like Youtube's dutchsinse (or Douchesinse, as I like to call him).
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2873
Quoting 79. GTstormChaserCaleb:
To add to comment 15, weather modifications would have to be done in the Pacific Ocean as well, to prevent any bias. There have been attempts in the past to to weaken tropical cyclones in the Atlantic by flying aircraft into them and seeding them with silver iodide which was done by NASA in Hurricane's Daisy, Esther, Beulah and Betsy.

Project Stormfury


correct and that is what was unclassified. Also they've done stuff that wasn't released till years later.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting 76. muddertracker:
97l moving out of the tropical storm graveyard. Let's see what it can do now...

First BEST track data needs to get the location correct because models would be wrong from 0hrs if not and that would be all the models
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12502
Quoting 79. GTstormChaserCaleb:
To add to comment 15, weather modifications would have to be done in the Pacific Ocean as well, to prevent any bias. There have been attempts in the past to to weaken tropical cyclones in the Atlantic by flying aircraft into them and seeding them with silver iodide which was done by NASA in Hurricane's Daisy, Esther, Beulah and Betsy.

Project Stormfury


goodness, yes - 40 years ago and counting. Geez, can we let this go?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
INVEST 97L will bee a rain storm and a weak invest for the next 72 hours.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 48 Comments: 81116
81. 7544
is 97l suppose to make the turn to the wnw today or is it bein delayed ? tia
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Quoting 64. redwagon:


I give the blob at the Gap an 80% chance of going shrimp, or 'coma' by 5pm.


Given the season, I would go with question mark, or "coma" - as the tropics have been having a hard time waking up :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To add to comment 15, weather modifications would have to be done in the Pacific Ocean as well, to prevent any bias. There have been attempts in the past to to weaken tropical cyclones in the Atlantic by flying aircraft into them and seeding them with silver iodide which was done by NASA in Hurricane's Daisy, Esther, Beulah and Betsy.

Project Stormfury
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8677
Quoting 75. EastTexJake:


Scott did you read Dr Master's post today? Here's a quote of the part about the NHS using Globalhawk drones.

..." The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Wednesday afternoon. The flight scheduled for today will likely be cancelled. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Mission, a 5-year field project utilizing two uncrewed Global Hawk aircraft to overfly tropical storms and hurricanes, will have one of their aircraft investigate 97L today, and again on Wednesday. You can follow the progress of the aircraft using NASA's live-plane tracker map (Global Hawk AV6 is tail number NASA872, and Global Hawk AV1 is tail number NASA871.)"

again, post above, I know about Hawk mission, I'm talking about using drones for seeding clouds or hampering development, we don't use drones for that stuff
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Another view of 97L

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12502
97l moving out of the tropical storm graveyard. Let's see what it can do now...
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Quoting 50. scottsvb:



...... Also, unmanned aircraft? what are they sending out drones to the atlantic waters? Come on...


Scott did you read Dr Master's post today? Here's a quote of the part about the NHS using Globalhawk drones.

..." The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L Wednesday afternoon. The flight scheduled for today will likely be cancelled. The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Mission, a 5-year field project utilizing two uncrewed Global Hawk aircraft to overfly tropical storms and hurricanes, will have one of their aircraft investigate 97L today, and again on Wednesday. You can follow the progress of the aircraft using NASA's live-plane tracker map (Global Hawk AV6 is tail number NASA872, and Global Hawk AV1 is tail number NASA871.)"
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Good late morning from Central OK,

@ Someone - thanks for the laugh, that was good!

Here things are pretty nice, although summer is going to make one last stand this week before we fully enter into the fall pattern. All in all, it has been a pretty cool summer.

See we still have "something normally would be happening, but this is 2013" going on in the tropics, as the big tease continues.

Hope your weekend was good, and the rest of the week even better.
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Quoting 67. Naga5000:


Yes, they are sending out drones into the Atlantic. Link

But seriously, there is no weather conspiracy here. Evidence like "we don't know they aren't doing it" is no evidence at all.


I know about Hawk and them drones, I ment drones seeding the Atlantic waters and stuff like that... we are NOT doing that crazy stuff through them drones :)
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
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Quoting 70. stormpetrol:


llc of 97l near 14.2n/63w

Stormpetrol you agree with me
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12502


llc of 97l near 14.2n/63w
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8023
69. 7544
97L goin west over the islands hmmm
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Quoting 66. ncstorm:


our models are not to be trusted past 3-5 days because they are prone to errors but yet we can manipulate the weather?..dont he think if we could manipulate the weather, we could let those same weather models know that as well so they wouldnt be prone to errors


not saying we are doing it out in the atlantic, but we do try to manipulate the weather...believe me, anyone who has a atmospheric science degree knows that.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting 50. scottsvb:



Explain how would you know what scientists are doing and what things the public don't know about do? Let alone what Nasa does it secret is alot of things. Only thing we need to know from Nasa,Military and Gov is what we need to know. Even that stupid John Kerry said that the other day. Also, unmanned aircraft? what are they sending out drones to the atlantic waters? Come on...


Yes, they are sending out drones into the Atlantic. Link

But seriously, there is no weather conspiracy here. Evidence like "we don't know they aren't doing it" is no evidence at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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