Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2013

Share this Blog
70
+

A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving westward at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands. Top sustained winds in the islands as of 10 am AST Sunday were 26 mph at Monserrat. Heavy thunderstorm activity has sharply increased since Saturday, as seen on satellite loops. A large circulation is evident, with some westerly winds blowing to the south of the disturbance. However, the thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows some rotation to the echoes, though well-organized spiral bands are not evident, and do not appear to be forming. Wind shear has dropped to a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be in the low to moderate range for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. The main factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days would appear to be the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Wednesday or Thursday, when the disturbance reaches the Central Caribbean. The wave will likely spread heavy rains to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic by Tuesday, and to Haiti by Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Wednesday, and near Jamaica on Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC boosted the 5-day odds of formation of 97L to 30%, and the 2-day odds to 20%.


Video 1. You can see why landslides triggered by heavy rains from a tropical cyclone are among the most dangerous hazards of these storms, thanks to a dashboard cam that caught this extraordinary rock slide in Northeast Taiwan on August 31, 2013, after heavy rains from a cold front drenched the island with up to 200 mm (7.87") of rain in 24 hours. The rains fell upon soils already saturated by Thursday's torrential rains from Tropical Storm Kong-Rey, which dumped up to 482 mm (19") of rain on Taiwan, killing three people. The driver of the car caught in the rock slide survived with minor injuries. Thanks go to wunderground member Robert Speta for bringing this video to my attention. A separate video showing the damage to the car and the course of the rock slide is here.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2455 - 2405

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

2455. GeoffreyWPB
11:59 AM GMT on September 03, 2013
You're on the old blog Vis.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
2454. vis0
11:51 AM GMT on September 03, 2013
Quoting 1908. Maineweatherguy20023:

Has there ever been a season w/out a hurricane? 1917 doesnt count. that wasnt a season.



shrt re: If one wonders when is the next "wx trend change" via what i state is the science of Galacsics, its the 2 week period for anomalies from September 22/23 2013 thru October 6/7 2013, afterwards the next (~2 months) NATURAL Trend
begins.
See Calendar here


(http://i40.tinypic.com/2j3jjno.jpg)
Calendar keys:
Red lines underlined dates represent Galacsic Ascending
season,
Blue underlined dates represent Descending Galacsic season. The micro dashed lines and micro barbell icon under dates every ~ 2 months are end dates of the past weather trend. The wxtrend end is followed by ~ 2 weeks of  anomalies. (If the next weather trend is similar to the past the anomaly
midpoint less distinctive. Here

(http://i44.tinypic.com/2euiyvo.jpg)
a map ROUGHLY showing  the ml-d AOI & RESP HIGH areas. (the dates can be off by as much 2 days as i might have incorrectly read NASA star  maps by that amount)
In conclusion if the next WxTrend has TS heading anywhere but with a northward component in there forward direction then to see a Hurr its during the anomaly period(s). Controversy would be if a xtra trop. is later called a Hurr.

Please (try) reading my WxU blog here for the looong re.

Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 243 Comments: 400
2453. HuracanTaino
5:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting VR46L:


DUST is a real pest (grumpy face) Where is grumpy Cat today ?

Very interesting Article Thanks!
In Puerto Rico it causes lots of health problem, especially "asma", among children and elderly persons; we are directly exposed to the Sahara Dust, all summer long... we call it "bruma".....
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
2452. winter123
3:55 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
I am not saying this will happen, but... Has there been a year in recorded history where there were no recorded hurricanes (including years before 1960 when we may have missed fish due to lack of satellite)?
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
2451. PensacolaDoug
3:13 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2396. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Once again the morning bustcasters are out in full force, claiming the season is over. Why not wait until November 30th gang?



That wouldn't be "bustcasting", that'd be "hindcasting".
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
2450. Skyepony (Mod)
3:08 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
New Dr Jeff Masters Blog up!!!!

I'll try & find something on the Rome geyser in a while.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
2449. GatorWX
2:59 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2445. Skyepony:
Tornado in Japan on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 08:39 (08:39 AM) UTC.
Description
Several dozen people were injured when a tornado ripped through parts of eastern Japan on Monday, tearing off roofs and uprooting buildings. Footage aired by public broadcaster NHK showed a number of homes destroyed, schools with shattered windows and a warehouse that had been lifted from its foundations and hurled into other buildings in Koshigaya city, north of Tokyo. At least 27 people were injured in the city alone, local police said, without elaborating on the severity of the injuries. NHK said a few dozen people were taken to hospital, all with minor injuries. "We are preparing evacuation shelters, while also readying emergency supplies," said an official of the fire department in Koshigaya. The electricity supply was cut for some 30,000 households in Saitama prefecture, probably after lightning hit the area, according to utility Tokyo Electric Power which provides power in the area

Here's a YouTube of this one..



Now that's something you don't see everyday! Can't imagine Japan getting too many of those. How's that little geyser near Rome? I tried looking it up yesterday, but all I could find were old articles.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2688
2448. GatorWX
2:51 PM GMT on September 02, 2013


Sittin', waitin' or what? 97's pretty lacking. Might need that next wave to get a final push. Structurally, I'd say it looks much tighter at the surface, but surface obs don't support a closed low. Idk at this point. Very strange how it hasn't moved.



Again, Happy Labor Day!!! If you're hand are typing words for the blog, you ain't working. Smile!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2688
2447. GeorgiaStormz
2:39 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2446. moonlightcowboy:
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;) Happy Labor Day to all us laborers who could use and enjoy another day off to rest, relax and frolic.


97L. Oh, is that thing, whatever it is, still around? Hhhhmmm, what's different today? Better vorticity at the mid-levels, somewhat better convergence. Some convection firing, but not prolific. Still some dry air pockets too. Lower level circulation apparently still broad and elongated. Nearly stationary with another moisture gyre (much larger, much faster) to the east about to intersect/act with 97L. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised there's not another "L" on the map.



Ok, another system where the mid-level circ has to do the work. That ain't how this normally works. 1008mb of low pressure? Hhmmmm, we'll see how long that remains without getting some lift going from the surface. I've got my doubts. Entering the "dead zone"? Uuummmm, hasn't it been doing that for three days now? ;P The only thing I see that it has got going for it predominantly is its persistence (aka annoyance). ;)

Enjoy the day, all! Don't "labor" over a puter with a system that, well, just ain't a system yet. Get out, stretch your legs, minds and hearts! 97L won't be doing anything really exciting anytime soon.



pouch isnt rolling nearly as much...may represent decreased development chances...we'll see
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
2446. moonlightcowboy
2:31 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;) Happy Labor Day to all us laborers who could use and enjoy another day off to rest, relax and frolic.


97L. Oh, is that thing, whatever it is, still around? Hhhhmmm, what's different today? Better vorticity at the mid-levels, somewhat better convergence. Some convection firing, but not prolific. Still some dry air pockets too. Lower level circulation apparently still broad and elongated. Nearly stationary with another moisture gyre (much larger, much faster) to the east about to intersect/act with 97L. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised there's not another "L" on the map.



Ok, another system where the mid-level circ has to do the work. That ain't how this normally works. 1008mb of low pressure? Hhmmmm, we'll see how long that remains without getting some lift going from the surface. I've got my doubts. Entering the "dead zone"? Uuummmm, hasn't it been doing that for three days now? ;P The only thing I see that it has got going for it predominantly is its persistence (aka annoyance). ;)

Enjoy the day, all! Don't "labor" over a puter with a system that, well, just ain't a system yet. Get out, stretch your legs, minds and hearts! 97L won't be doing anything really exciting anytime soon.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
2445. Skyepony (Mod)
2:30 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Tornado in Japan on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 08:39 (08:39 AM) UTC.
Description
Several dozen people were injured when a tornado ripped through parts of eastern Japan on Monday, tearing off roofs and uprooting buildings. Footage aired by public broadcaster NHK showed a number of homes destroyed, schools with shattered windows and a warehouse that had been lifted from its foundations and hurled into other buildings in Koshigaya city, north of Tokyo. At least 27 people were injured in the city alone, local police said, without elaborating on the severity of the injuries. NHK said a few dozen people were taken to hospital, all with minor injuries. "We are preparing evacuation shelters, while also readying emergency supplies," said an official of the fire department in Koshigaya. The electricity supply was cut for some 30,000 households in Saitama prefecture, probably after lightning hit the area, according to utility Tokyo Electric Power which provides power in the area

Here's a YouTube of this one..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
2444. Skyepony (Mod)
2:26 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Flash Flood in Japan on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 08:06 (08:06 AM) UTC.
Description
More than 5,000 people in Japan were told to evacuate Monday due to threats of flooding caused by heavy rain, a media report said. The western prefecture of Hyogo saw rainfall between 80 and 100 mm by noon Monday. About 5,000 people in Taka town were asked to leave their homes, after rising water levels in nearby rivers posed risks, Xinhua cited Japan's public broadcaster NHK as saying. More than 70 houses were inundated in several cities, including Tamba and Nishiwaki. In southwestern Japan, persistent heavy rainfall also forced about 150 people in Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures to evacuate after their homes were inundated.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
2443. Skyepony (Mod)
2:23 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Flash Flood in USA on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 03:04 (03:04 AM) UTC.
Description
Thunderstorms sparked by a hot, humid late-summer day rocked parts of central North Carolina on Sunday, knocking out power to thousands of customers in Raleigh. Flash flooding was reported in low-lying areas as the evening wore on and rainfall accumulated. Wake County is under a flash flood warning until early Monday morning, with more storms in the forecast. Severe thunderstorm warnings blanketed the Triangle for hours during the early evening Sunday. The National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings for parts of Wake, Durham, Orange and Alamance counties where rain fell at a rate of about 4.5 inches per hour. "Man, they have been loud, they have been producing a lot of rain, and these storms have tons of lightning," said WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
2442. Skyepony (Mod)
2:22 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Flash Flood in USA on Monday, 02 September, 2013 at 02:52 (02:52 AM) UTC.
Description
Power has been restored to almost all of the Boston residents who lost it this afternoon due to weather-related outages, according to NStar. At 1:30 p.m., NStar was working to restore 479 outages in the city, NStar spokesman John Hoey said. By 5 p.m., only 22 outages remained, according to the interactive map on the NStar website. The flood warning issued for Suffolk County and parts of Middlesex and Norfolk counties this morning expired at 2 p.m., but scattered showers are expected to continue through the night, the National Weather Service in Taunton said. The cause of the heavy rain and thunderstorms in the region is a stagnant tropical air mass blanketing Southern New England, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Charlie Foley.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the region into Tuesday, making the remainder of Labor Day weekend wet and muggy, Foley said. Today's storm worked its way from the southeast of the Massachusetts Turnpike to Boston, Foley said. Reports have come in of local flooding and road closures in the region, he said. Trained weather spotters reported several cars throughout the region stuck in flood waters, the weather service said on its website. This morning, the Boston Fire Department went to assist a woman in West Roxbury who was trapped in her car on a flooded road, but she left the vehicle on her own before they arrived, according to Fire Department spokesman Steve MacDonald. "We have been busy," MacDonald said at 1:20 p.m. referring to responding to flood-related incidents, "but not with anything major."

All lanes on Interstate 95 in the area of Route 9 have reopened after being closed this morning, but delays are expected due to some minor flooding in construction zones, according to State Police. There have been no reports of serious storm damage or weather-related car accidents, according to State Police spokesman Reid Bagley. The weather service recommends that residents in urban areas continue to avoid flooded roads and heed road closures. Those living near streams are urged to take higher ground. Cape Cod has also been subjected to a weekend of heavy rain and local flooding, according to Falmouth Sergeant Brian Kinsella. Around 2:30 a.m., there was a brief power outage, but no serious damage, he said.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
2441. Skyepony (Mod)
2:21 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Extreme Weather in Georgia (the country) on Sunday, 01 September, 2013 at 15:20 (03:20 PM) UTC.
Description
Western Georgia has once again become a victim of the natural disaster on Sunday night.Torrential rain and gale-force winds caused damage to the resort towns and villages - Batumi , Kobuleti, Shekvetili , Senaki. As a result of the wind in Batumi, the electricity supply was stopped, trees were brought down and damaged nine cars. Advisor of the Minister of Corrections and Legal Assistance Lali Moroshkina had to stay in Shekvetili because of the strong winds. She was going to Kobuleti, but the roads were washed out, and the car was damaged. River Paz in Senaki, rose as a result of heavy rain and flooded more than 30 homes. Domestic animals died. Local residents state that, a barrier should be constructed along the river.The old fence was damaged about six weeks ago in the flood. The residents demand a timely restoration of the fence. The central government has transferred funds and will finish the design works in coming days, and begin rebuilding barriers, the local authorities said. It should be noted that western Georgia has been frequently affected by natural disasters in the last month.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
2440. VR46L
2:16 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2431. CaribBoy:
Link

Very interesting article about AFRICAN DUST.

DUST is a real pest (grumpy face)

"Experts say the dust clouds contain trace amounts of metals, microorganisms, bacteria, spores, pesticides and faecal matter"

Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/


DUST is a real pest (grumpy face) Where is grumpy Cat today ?

Very interesting Article Thanks!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
2439. sebastianflorida
2:15 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Most models have not been very committed to 97L. The CMC (Canadian global model) was (of course) the only g-based model that had been developing 97L. However, now the HWRF (tropical NAM/WRF model...) is also developing a small TC, taking it to between Fl and the lower Bahamas by 126 hours.

What I find intriguing is that the recent run of the experimental Roundy Probabilities product shows that right around day 5, there is a fairly large region of positive anomaly for development, situated right in that general area.

Also the Madden-Julian Oscillation has been flagging this first two weeks of September as a more favorable arena compared to the suppressive nature of the overall circulation that had dominated much of the summer through August.

Should a TC evolve from 97L:

A shallower system may take a more westerly track through the Caribbean. One note about that; climatologically, systems tend to have a tough time getting their act together in the far eastern Caribbean sea. The reason for that has to do with systems tending to get entangled in the monsoonal exchange between NE South America and the adjacent region of the southwest Atlantic Basin. Downward vertical motion from land-based intense convection tends to compensate/mute the upward vertical motion associated/necessary with/for developing TCs. That can be overcome; the in situ circulation does not at this time appear to be taking on that longer term tendency, so we'll see...

Contrasting, a system that develops in earnest would likely tap the deeper layer steering field, and that would likely mean a more polar-ward position out in time.

Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
2438. weatherlover94
2:15 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Good morning everybody. I honestly can't believe this system fell apart last night....I kinda expected it to...everyone so far this year has.......also i noticed a big shift North in the models .....I don't see how this can go out to sea....the trough will be leaving and high pressure will be building back in.....thats what Levi said in his update last night
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2123
2437. LargoFl
2:14 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2432. weatherman994:
2425. LargoFl You believe everything
we'll see around thurs-friday..I hope it dies out myself.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
2436. hurricanes2018
2:14 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
ITS UP!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13709
2435. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:14 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2434. hurricanes2018
2:13 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
NEW FLOATER IS UP!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13709
2433. IKE
2:12 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
""""I tricked you into thinking I was going to blow-up"""""

Walks out the door..............


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2432. weatherman994
2:11 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
2425. LargoFl You believe everything
Member Since: July 24, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 216
2431. CaribBoy
2:11 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Link

Very interesting article about AFRICAN DUST.

DUST is a real pest (grumpy face)

"Experts say the dust clouds contain trace amounts of metals, microorganisms, bacteria, spores, pesticides and faecal matter"

Read more: http://www.caribbean360.com/
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5981
2430. SLU
2:10 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2361. CaribBoy:


DMin is a pest, I hate it. But our system STILL looks very interesting.


Quoting 2362. Tropicsweatherpr:


Wave behind is larger and can steel the energy from 97L. Any observations from the islands about wind direction?


Based on the observations, the circulation is weaker than yesterday.

Edit: My apologies for the error.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4899
2429. AussieStorm
2:10 PM GMT on September 02, 2013



Current CONUS Satellite with Lightning...

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
2428. unknowncomic
2:09 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1781
2427. Abacosurf
2:08 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2413. WoodyFL:


I guessed i understand by lurking you are a scientist of some kind, so I can't argue on this too much. But my understanding post 2291 is that the 134 knots was at a height of 950mb. To estimate the surface winds you'd have to reduce that by some 25%. I didn't realize it but i think that may even by written at the bottom of the image posted. If I am wrong i honestly would appreciate you explaining it.
You are confusing heights with strength. Two different things alltogether.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
2426. nrtiwlnvragn
2:06 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2417. Skyepony:


A storm with 134kt winds would have a surfacee pressure of like 920-930mb.. If the model says it would be 134mb at 950mb hieght than in reality you would assume the winds would be greater at the surface...because the surface pressure is lower than 950mb. Not reduce them.. Like you would if it said 50kts at 950mb.. If it was only 50kts at 950mb the system would be greater than 950mb at the surface..like ~995mb.


The modeled surface winds at that point is 107 kts.

AL, 97, 2013090200, 03, HWRF, 060, 176N, 699W, 107

Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10909
2425. LargoFl
2:06 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
perhaps the east coast should keep an eye on this in case the future track is much closer.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
2424. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:05 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
I do recall a state that is currently in a drought, that could use a tropical system to help put a dent in that drought. So rather a persistent drought that has already caused millions of dollars in damage or a tropical storm that causes minor damage and helps out in the long run. Take your pick.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7598
2423. hydrus
2:05 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2409. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
I'm no expert but it appears to me that the wave behind 97L is catching up to it and possibly overtake it..
Thats alot of energy out there right now..
JMO.. :)



It is only my opinion, but the interaction of these waves due to there closer than normal proximity to each other has been a co factor as to why more of them havnt developed.. The new wave exiting Africa may be a different story because it is so far south. If the wave behind it moves into the vicinity of the exiting wave, once again, it may affect either waves development due to the competition for dominance.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
2422. ncstorm
2:04 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
12z NAM is running

24 hours
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14602
2421. LargoFl
2:03 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
2420. HuracanTaino
2:02 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting fldude99:
Who wouldn't be rooting for a record? When it comes down to it, does ANYBODY really want to see a hurricane? If they didn't exist it would be fine for me and millions of others.
No, hurricanes are essential for keeping the balance, energy distribution around the glove, plus is one of the most beautiful phenomenal manifestation, meteorologically speaking, of mother nature. Of course, they are dangerous,but humans have fight nature's elements since the beginning of mankind in order to survived, that's part of our specie's success.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
2419. Sfloridacat5
2:01 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
12z NAM at 21 hours
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6188
2418. LargoFl
2:01 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
2417. Skyepony (Mod)
1:59 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2402. WoodyFL:


I'm not being funny i just don't understand what that means.


A storm with 134kt winds would have a surface pressure of like 920-930mb.. If the model says it would be 134kt at 950mb height than in reality you would assume the winds would be greater at the surface...because the surface pressure is lower than 950mb. Not reduce them.. Like you would if it said 50kts at 950mb.. If it was only 50kts at 950mb the system would be greater than 950mb at the surface..like ~995mb.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
2416. Sfloridacat5
1:59 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2409. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
I'm no expert but it appears to me that the wave behind 97L is catching up to it and possibly overtake it..
Thats alot of energy out there right now..
JMO.. :)





Not sure if it will catch it. The wave behind 97L will most likley get pulled to the north.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6188
2415. hydrus
1:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2368. hurricanes2018:
HERE IS very nice spin to this tropical wave and still got t.storms and rain with it and its south to
May I have a link to that please.?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
2414. LargoFl
1:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
well the good news might be 97L doesnt hit florida..at least so far..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37042
2413. WoodyFL
1:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2392. Skyepony:

134kts is roughly a 930mb storm at the surface.


I guessed i understand by lurking you are a scientist of some kind, so I can't argue on this too much. But my understanding post 2291 is that the 134 knots was at a height of 950mb. To estimate the surface winds you'd have to reduce that by some 25%. I didn't realize it but i think that may even by written at the bottom of the image posted. If I am wrong i honestly would appreciate you explaining it.
Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
2412. ackee
1:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
I think my numbers for the season will hold through or come close 13 name storm with 3 hurricane my numbers was base on observation I am no expert but this seasons have prove the expert wrong in almost all the predation Dangerous pattern that will cause CV storm track west have not materialize we have yet to see a hurricane none in AUG I think its important to use human observation and trends for each seasons and not only models the only model I think have done well with showing little activity is the EURO just my view on the seasons
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1353
2411. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:58 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2403. aislinnpaps:


Just curious, but how would a hurricane help you? Yes, I know you are pursuing a spot, but is there a specific opening coming up somehow? Personally, I'd be a very happy person if all hurricanes went out to sea, not affecting anyone anywhere other than shipping lanes.
quoted directly from fladude99 "If they didn't exist it would be fine for me and millions of others" So what would happen to all the people who do research into hurricanes and the forecasters at the NHC? His statement was outlandish and then why come on a tropical weather blog to say something like that? The reason we are here is to see what is going on in the tropics. And I wasn't implying on all of them coming to hit me, I just ask for one to see what it is like, go out and get footage for myself, and learn and thing or two about hurricanes, so that I can do a report on it to help me in my research AOC.
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7598
2410. ackee
1:56 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
I think my numbers for the season will hold through or come close 13 name storm with 3 hurricane my numbers was base on observation I am no expert but this seasons have prove the expert wrong in almost all the predation Dangerous pattern that will cause CV storm track west have not materialize we have yet to see a hurricane none in AUG I think its important to use human observation and trends for each seasons and not only models the only model I think have done well with showing little activity is the EURO just my view on the seasons
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1353
2409. pcola57
1:56 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Good Morning All..
I'm no expert but it appears to me that the wave behind 97L is catching up to it and possibly overtake it..
Thats alot of energy out there right now..
JMO.. :)



Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6773
2408. TampaSpin
1:55 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2405. TideWaterWeather:
Sure starting to look like the real player is the wave behind 97L and that a Bahama run, bypassing the Caribbean for the most part,may be what we get. (If we even get that).


That is exactly what the GFS is showing I believe....everyone wants to keep bashing the GFS....STILL MY FAVORITE.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
2407. TideWaterWeather
1:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2406. unknowncomic:
There is no bonafide low level center of circulation.


And no 850 vort at all
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 177
2406. unknowncomic
1:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Quoting 2380. HuracanTaino:
More tan 24 hore without any movement what so ever...
There is no bonafide low level center of circulation.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1781
2405. TideWaterWeather
1:52 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
Sure starting to look like the real player is the wave behind 97L and that a Bahama run, bypassing the Caribbean for the most part,may be what we get. (If we even get that).
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 177

Viewing: 2455 - 2405

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.