Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2013

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A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving westward at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands. Top sustained winds in the islands as of 10 am AST Sunday were 26 mph at Monserrat. Heavy thunderstorm activity has sharply increased since Saturday, as seen on satellite loops. A large circulation is evident, with some westerly winds blowing to the south of the disturbance. However, the thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows some rotation to the echoes, though well-organized spiral bands are not evident, and do not appear to be forming. Wind shear has dropped to a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be in the low to moderate range for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. The main factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days would appear to be the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Wednesday or Thursday, when the disturbance reaches the Central Caribbean. The wave will likely spread heavy rains to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic by Tuesday, and to Haiti by Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Wednesday, and near Jamaica on Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC boosted the 5-day odds of formation of 97L to 30%, and the 2-day odds to 20%.


Video 1. You can see why landslides triggered by heavy rains from a tropical cyclone are among the most dangerous hazards of these storms, thanks to a dashboard cam that caught this extraordinary rock slide in Northeast Taiwan on August 31, 2013, after heavy rains from a cold front drenched the island with up to 200 mm (7.87") of rain in 24 hours. The rains fell upon soils already saturated by Thursday's torrential rains from Tropical Storm Kong-Rey, which dumped up to 482 mm (19") of rain on Taiwan, killing three people. The driver of the car caught in the rock slide survived with minor injuries. Thanks go to wunderground member Robert Speta for bringing this video to my attention. A separate video showing the damage to the car and the course of the rock slide is here.

Jeff Masters

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2255. SLU
Quoting 2252. IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT..
.OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Sums up 2013 so far when Stewart has lost all optimism.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5248
2254. IKE
LOL....they lowered the odds. Watched pot never boils. The incredible season rocks on.....

6-0-0.

NOTE: I thought they might raise the odds to 50% and 60%.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Down to 20% in the next 48 hours, holding strong at 50% in 5 days. Clearly the NHC still thinks this has a good chance to develop.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
2252. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT..
.OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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2251. pottery
Quoting GatorWX:
Come on! :(



Looks a lot better than last night, wonder what's under that convection.


Barbados.
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2250. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
I think 97L is going to be another long drawn out 'will it, won't it?' yawnfest. There's been a lot of those, the past few seasons. Something's amiss.
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2248. GatorWX
Dwindling...



Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
Quoting 2243. CybrTeddy:


Because it's entering a graveyard and is nowhere close to tropical depression status.


97L is still east of the Lesser Antilles. It has not moved since yesterday morning.
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Quoting 2243. CybrTeddy:


Because it's entering a graveyard and is nowhere close to tropical depression status.


It's close, just needs a confirmed low level circulation.
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Quoting 2232. MAweatherboy1:
Is the area of convection around 50W a part of 97L? Because it grew convection last night and unlike the main part of 97L that we've been watching it has some convergence going for it. I know some models had been developing a wave behind 97L so maybe that is the area to watch.



That's the wave the other models are hinting at might develop. GFS, CMC, FIM are all showing something.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
very close to td status
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Quoting 2242. TheDawnAwakening:


It can still develop near the islands, so I don't know why you just think it can't develop until it's past the islands.


Because it's entering a graveyard and is nowhere close to tropical depression status.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
Quoting 2239. CybrTeddy:
97L wasn't ever expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I don't know why so many of you were expecting a TD today or tomorrow. It's when it gets into the western Caribbean it might take off.


It can still develop near the islands, so I don't know why you just think it can't develop until it's past the islands.
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UKMET takes 97L north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and is stronger.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
2240. IKE

Quoting CybrTeddy:
97L wasn't ever expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I don't know why so many of you were expecting a TD today or tomorrow. It's when it gets into the western Caribbean it might take off.
Not sure it makes it there. Time will tell.
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97L wasn't ever expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean. I don't know why so many of you were expecting a TD today or tomorrow. It's when it gets into the western Caribbean it might take off.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
By the way

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE...WHICH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
OUR WEATHER...IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANY BY DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A BIG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS THIS SYSTEM TO
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN NEAR PUERTO
RICO
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...PER LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
STARTING ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING PROBABLY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IN
FACT...LATEST SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RISING TO AS MUCH AS OVER 2.30 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THETAE VALUES AT 700MB OVER 340K. IN
ADDITION...MODEL SHOWS A WELL DEFINE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN
0-3 KM...WHICH...COULD BRING EVEN MORE MOIST FROM THE DEEP TROPICS
TO THE LOCAL AREA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
...AS
EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT OR
EARLY TOMORROW.
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97 is a bit better organized than yesterday morning. has it moved? not much
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2236. IKE
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW IS JUST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ITS AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 19N59W TO THE LOW
NEAR 14N59W TO 11N59W AND IS MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED
WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS OBSERVED COUPLED TO
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS
CONTINUE WEST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 61W-
66W WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 55W-62W.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Pretty obvious now that 97L has been NEARLY stationary or moved erratically. Has been the case since yesterday.
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Quoting 2226. LargoFl:


SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT
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2233. GatorWX
Quoting 2228. GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco...

THERE IS CURRENTLY A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. CURRENT OPERATIONAL
MODELS BRING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.


They've had it going at least that fast for 24 hours and it's still in the same spot. lol
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
Is the area of convection around 50W a part of 97L? Because it grew convection last night and unlike the main part of 97L that we've been watching it has some convergence going for it. I know some models had been developing a wave behind 97L so maybe that is the area to watch.

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2231. GatorWX
Barbados is reporting mostly light east/variable winds, not too telling.

Link
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
Quoting 2222. GatorWX:


I beg to differ.


I beg to differ as well, for once in this wave's lifetime convection is developing over the greatest area of low level vorticity and the mid to low level centers are stacking up among one another. This is a great sign for future tropical development of this low.
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Quoting 2218. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Can't say I'm surprised 97L is almost void of convection this morning, one could easily see it coming last night. I have been pessimistic on development of this from the beginning and I continue to be. It'll probably blow some storms up in the next few hours but there's really nothing there, it has no organization.



Just NNW of Barbados is the low pressure.
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From the Miami NWS Disco...

THERE IS CURRENTLY A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. CURRENT OPERATIONAL
MODELS BRING THIS SYSTEM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS AN OPEN WAVE LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2218. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Can't say I'm surprised 97L is almost void of convection this morning, one could easily see it coming last night. I have been pessimistic on development of this from the beginning and I continue to be. It'll probably blow some storms up in the next few hours but there's really nothing there, it has no organization.



Just north of Barbados is the low pressure.
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2226. LargoFl
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2225. GatorWX
Can it persist, or will the same thing happen? That's the question.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
2224. tkdaime
people on this site like to rush storms to develop 97l is not a small storm the more it moves west the better it will be.
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2223. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
2222. GatorWX
Quoting 2218. MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Can't say I'm surprised 97L is almost void of convection this morning, one could easily see it coming last night. I have been pessimistic on development of this from the beginning and I continue to be. It'll probably blow some storms up in the next few hours but there's really nothing there, it has no organization.



I beg to differ.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
2221. LargoFl
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2220. GatorWX


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2219. LargoFl
Laborday in florida is a Big Beach and BBQ day..pay attention folks to the weather this afternoon...................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DELAY THE ONSET OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE UNTIL THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR...BEFORE INTERACTING WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
NORTH OF ORLANDO. A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS MAY DEVELOP INLAND FROM
THE TREASURE COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

A FEW STORMS WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS NEAR 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60
MPH...MAINLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WHICH WILL BRING A FEW STORMS TO THE COAST
EARLY THIS EVENING.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE THIS MORNING OVER INLAND
LAKES...THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
THESE STORMS AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS WILL INTERACT WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE SITTING INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL...AS THEY CROSS THE
COAST ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS EVENING.
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Good morning. Can't say I'm surprised 97L is almost void of convection this morning, one could easily see it coming last night. I have been pessimistic on development of this from the beginning and I continue to be. It'll probably blow some storms up in the next few hours but there's really nothing there, it has no organization.

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2217. GatorWX


Went two days now with only .1" or less, here's to that staying the same today. It has rained 12 days in a row however. 7-8", last 12. I can only imagine where we stand here in Englewood.

Aside from rain,

75F, 98% RH, 74.5F DP, 0mph Wind, 30% Chance of rain
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
2216. LargoFl
Nam for thursday..............
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2215. Kyon5

Quoting 2214. VR46L:


yeah but its the last decent looking one for a week by the looks of it !
Yeah, lol. But don't you worry, they'll pop up with thunderstorms soon. They always do that. Let's see what September brings.
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2214. VR46L
Quoting 2213. Kyon5:
I know the main focus of attention is 97L, but there is a pretty nice wave coming off of Africa on a low latitude.





yeah but its the last decent looking one for a week by the looks of it !
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2213. Kyon5
I know the main focus of attention is on 97L, but there is a pretty nice wave coming off of Africa on a low latitude.



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2212. VR46L
Is it the second of November?

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
2211. GatorWX
Quoting 2206. GeoffreyWPB:
Happy Labor Day!...



Same!

And good morning everyone. I always have to divulge a little first.

Hope everyone's off work! I know that's not the case, but regardless, enjoy!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
2210. VR46L
Quoting 2204. LargoFl:
..yes and hopefully some of its rain will get to texas..


Yes But the Texas drought situation is sure improving, a decent Tropical storm coming in at Corpus Christi /Matagorda Bay areas would really help it out

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
The EPac continues churning them out:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309021034
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013090206, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP992013
EP, 99, 2013090206, , BEST, 0, 139N, 1002W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2208. GatorWX
Quoting 2207. GatorWX:
Come on! :(



Looks a lot better than last night, wonder what's under that convection.


lol, guess I posted the second they updated image.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3370
2207. GatorWX
Come on! :(



Looks a lot better than last night, wonder what's under that convection.
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Happy Labor Day!...

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2205. LargoFl
Hazardous Weather Outlook

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-022200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
530 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.