Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2013

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A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving westward at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands. Top sustained winds in the islands as of 10 am AST Sunday were 26 mph at Monserrat. Heavy thunderstorm activity has sharply increased since Saturday, as seen on satellite loops. A large circulation is evident, with some westerly winds blowing to the south of the disturbance. However, the thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows some rotation to the echoes, though well-organized spiral bands are not evident, and do not appear to be forming. Wind shear has dropped to a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be in the low to moderate range for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. The main factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days would appear to be the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Wednesday or Thursday, when the disturbance reaches the Central Caribbean. The wave will likely spread heavy rains to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic by Tuesday, and to Haiti by Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Wednesday, and near Jamaica on Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC boosted the 5-day odds of formation of 97L to 30%, and the 2-day odds to 20%.


Video 1. You can see why landslides triggered by heavy rains from a tropical cyclone are among the most dangerous hazards of these storms, thanks to a dashboard cam that caught this extraordinary rock slide in Northeast Taiwan on August 31, 2013, after heavy rains from a cold front drenched the island with up to 200 mm (7.87") of rain in 24 hours. The rains fell upon soils already saturated by Thursday's torrential rains from Tropical Storm Kong-Rey, which dumped up to 482 mm (19") of rain on Taiwan, killing three people. The driver of the car caught in the rock slide survived with minor injuries. Thanks go to wunderground member Robert Speta for bringing this video to my attention. A separate video showing the damage to the car and the course of the rock slide is here.

Jeff Masters

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man...looks when it comes to tropical systems are extremely deceiving....look at this still frame :



if you didnt know any better, saw no loops and didnt go in depth like all of us on here do, 97l looks like a strenghthening ts well on its way to being a hurricane to the naked eye...

to the naked eye of a non weather nerd... very circular, banding evident and decent outflow....lol
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Looking better organized based off satellite. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen.
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you know..there is the possibility it sits down there for a few days then clips the yucatan and moves into the western gulf...Texas sure could use its rains right now.
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12Z HWRF likes 97L


ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 1

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -60.50 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 3.0 LONG: -61.00 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -61.50 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 9.0 LONG: -62.10 LAT: 14.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -62.70 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 15.0 LONG: -63.30 LAT: 14.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -63.80 LAT: 14.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 21.0 LONG: -64.20 LAT: 14.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -64.70 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.00
HOUR: 27.0 LONG: -64.90 LAT: 14.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -65.20 LAT: 14.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.00
HOUR: 33.0 LONG: -65.50 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -65.90 LAT: 14.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 28.00
HOUR: 39.0 LONG: -66.40 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -66.80 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 45.0 LONG: -67.30 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 37.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -67.50 LAT: 14.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 51.0 LONG: -67.80 LAT: 14.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -68.00 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 41.00
HOUR: 57.0 LONG: -68.30 LAT: 14.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 48.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -68.70 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 63.0 LONG: -69.00 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -69.40 LAT: 15.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 69.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 15.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -70.40 LAT: 16.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 75.0 LONG: -70.90 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 70.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -71.40 LAT: 16.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 979.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.00
HOUR: 81.0 LONG: -72.00 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 80.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -72.40 LAT: 17.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 78.00
HOUR: 87.0 LONG: -73.10 LAT: 18.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -73.70 LAT: 18.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 74.00
HOUR: 93.0 LONG: -74.20 LAT: 19.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 984.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 73.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -74.70 LAT: 19.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 69.00
HOUR: 99.0 LONG: -75.30 LAT: 20.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -75.80 LAT: 20.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 63.00
HOUR: 105.0 LONG: -76.20 LAT: 20.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -76.50 LAT: 21.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
HOUR: 111.0 LONG: -77.10 LAT: 21.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 994.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 61.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -77.40 LAT: 21.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 991.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.00
HOUR: 117.0 LONG: -77.70 LAT: 21.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -77.90 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 55.00
HOUR: 123.0 LONG: -78.20 LAT: 22.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -78.50 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 60.00
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Quoting 448. LargoFl:
might be a bit early for that..good chance tomorrow though and for sure tuesday.


Largo do you have any idea yet what the eventual landfall place will be ?
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The ignore option is definitely a wonderful thing.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3589
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Quoting 445. weatherlover94:
It will be interesting what the NHC says in the 2:00 TWO....I think we will go up to code orange
might be a bit early for that..good chance tomorrow though and for sure tuesday.
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Quoting 441. NCHurricane2009:

Okay....I know I am tossing my hat into the fire...but I am gonna guess that it will eventually become "c" a hurricane...



This one could be the one....we will hold our breath and see
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Quoting 434. ackee:
97L looking better organize poll time how strong witll 97L get

A TD
B TS
c hurricane
D cat 1
e major
F open wave
G Dissipate
ok i'll say hurricane,there IS the possibility of a rather strong one too later on..
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It will be interesting what the NHC says in the 2:00 TWO....I think we will go up to code orange
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I like to count my chickens after they hatch.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2716
each one stronger than the last
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Quoting 430. CybrTeddy:


What makes you think I'm downplaying its chances? I just know this blog is going to erupt in misery once the convection from 97L fades. I've tracked enough invests on here to know how DMIN and DMAX effects these systems, it'll blow right back up again and the process will repeat itself on here.
convective cycles
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Quoting 434. ackee:
97L looking better organize poll time how strong witll 97L get

A TD
B TS
c hurricane
D cat 1
e major
F open wave
G Dissipate

Okay....I know I am tossing my hat into the fire...but I am gonna guess that it will eventually become "c" a hurricane...
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Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:18Z
Date: September 1, 2013

Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Mission: Training Mission (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Observation Number: 10

17:18:30Z 24.850N 76.600W 188.0 mb
(~ 5.55 inHg) 12,849 meters
(~ 42,156 feet) - 677 meters
(~ 2,221 feet) From 169° at 18 knots
(From between the SSE and S at ~ 20.7 mph) -58.1°C*
(~ -72.6°F*) -* 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:09:00Z (first observation), the observation was 135 miles (218 km) to the ESE (115°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
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Quoting 430. CybrTeddy:


What makes you think I'm downplaying its chances? I just know this blog is going to erupt in misery once the convection from 97L fades. I've tracked enough invests on here to know how DMIN and DMAX effects these systems, it'll blow right back up again and the process will repeat itself on here.
not going to be any misery teddy..intensity models say hurrticane..just wait it out...it IS september now,peak of the season..many surprise hurricanes formed down there..
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Quoting 425. islander101010:
looks like a td 30mph


what it looks like and what it is

is always two different things
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Quoting 427. hydrus:
I said yesterday morning that if TUTT weakens and moves west, it would actually help it develop rather then kill it.

Yes...this is exactly correct...and what I am observing when I look at the upper wind field today versus yesterday...
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Quoting 426. stormwatcherCI:
Looks like G-IV heading there now again for sampling I guess.


Appears heading home (Tampa)


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Westerly winds here in Barbsdos now...nice though!!!
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434. ackee
97L looking better organize poll time how strong witll 97L get

A TD
B TS
c hurricane
D cat 1
e major
F open wave
G Dissipate
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Want some spaghetti, then go to pastaplots.com. Thanks Dennis Phillips. :P

BAMD, LBAR, CMC, GFTI, and AEMI showing a northward turn, the rest is west.

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8436
Quoting 428. sar2401:

But not until September 3 if I'm reading that right.
Link
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Knee jerking reactions here all day long today, I see. It got potential, but models aren't buying it and NHC is being cautious for a good reason because of what happened to most invests this season. I would be patient and wait few days to see what happens.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8030
Quoting 409. LargoFl:
teddy stop..your opening that door again..for a whole month or more many here were crying for a storm and none came..well now the Best possibility so far for a hurricane to form and your downplaying the chances..dont..we DO have a storm to follow this week..THAT is the great thing many here were hoping for..dont open the door to the trolls ok...watch the storm and wait it out.


What makes you think I'm downplaying its chances? I just know this blog is going to erupt in misery once the convection from 97L fades. I've tracked enough invests on here to know how DMIN and DMAX effects these systems, it'll blow right back up again and the process will repeat itself on here.
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enviros out front at 16 69 from 97l
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like G-IV heading there now again for sampling I guess.

But not until September 3 if I'm reading that right.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16114
Quoting 418. NCHurricane2009:
Starting to speculate with the observations in posts 395 and 397 that 97L might just spin up into a tropical cyclone more quickly than we think...perhaps as early as tomorrow?
I said yesterday morning that if TUTT weakens and moves west, it would actually help it develop rather then kill it.
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Quoting 415. Patrap:
RECON is scheduled for Tuesday.

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011535
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 01 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SYSTEM NEAR 15.0N 72.0W FOR 03/1800Z.
3. REMARK: THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK MAY FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM...TAKING OFF AT
03/1100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

Looks like G-IV heading there now again for sampling I guess.
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looks like a td 30mph
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Quoting LargoFl:

The only models I consider halfway reliable at this stage of the game are the BAMS and BAMD, both of which take this to the Yucatan. Since we still don't have a reliable COC, these models are still using bogus vortexes, and you can see the most reliable models haven't even picked up on it yet.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16114


i wanna see is the shift back to west/wsw continues as the pressure has started to fall again...barbados.
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Quoting 413. RascalNag:


Don't forget to butter up the popcorn, too.
Consider it done.
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I challenge everyone to not wishcast or downcast until this as least becomes a tropical depression.

This is nothing but a tropical low right now, so why get so upset if it doesn't develop? If this becomes a tropical depression or storm and fizzles before traveling the length of the Caribbean then I would have more reason to be upset.

Lets just watch and state the facts as this situations is unfolding please.

Thank you (:
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2716
more intensity models saying Hurricane next weekend..
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Starting to speculate with the observations in posts 395 and 397 that 97L might just spin up into a tropical cyclone more quickly than we think...perhaps as early as tomorrow?
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97L circulation really tightening up, could see 30-40% at 1pm cst.



Starting to organize nicely too. Could be nearing TD status IMO.
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Quoting 254. PalmBeachWeather:
Why don't sheep shrink when it rains?


Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad
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RECON is scheduled for Tuesday.

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 011535
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 01 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SYSTEM NEAR 15.0N 72.0W FOR 03/1800Z.
3. REMARK: THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK MAY FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM...TAKING OFF AT
03/1100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

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this current 97L is going to slow down under the islands..may sit there for a few days building..we may just get a hurricane out of this..but not in a hurry...a whole week we will be watching this storm..
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Quoting 412. hydrus:
Give it a soft drink and some raisinettes with the popcorn and will have a tropical storm in a couple of hours.


Don't forget to butter up the popcorn, too.
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Quoting 405. RascalNag:
Popcorn convection showing up all around the invest, and no outflow boundaries yet. Still way too early to say if it's weakening. The aforementioned popcorn convection can signal a forthcoming larger burst.
Give it a soft drink and some raisinettes with the popcorn and will have a tropical storm in a couple of hours.
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Quoting 407. sar2401:

LOL. I was thinking the same thing. 97L really doesn't have much of a chance to develop, if it's going to develop, until it gets west of the Antilles. The NHC has been pretty clear about this, so the fact it's not "undergoing RI and will soon be a monster!!!" is to be expected. I marvel at some bloggers who think the NHC didn't schedule any recon flights has no meaning.
Global Hawk is expected to go out there tomorrow to investigate 97L.

Edit. correction Tuesday. ;)
Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8436
Quoting 388. moonlightcowboy:
Notice, as I mentioned earlier, now the updated sfc maps show a continued westerly, not northwesterly, movement.




due west it is till the sw tail of Jamaica
iam more interested in what it will be looking like near 16 69
from there on out is when it will have to be doing something after that who knows
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Quoting 399. CybrTeddy:


Nah, I'm not talking about you - the blog's optimistic mood will be replaced by one with shear agony and pessimism by 7pm.
teddy stop..your opening that door again..for a whole month or more many here were crying for a storm and none came..well now the Best possibility so far for a hurricane to form and your downplaying the chances..dont..we DO have a storm to follow this week..THAT is the great thing many here were hoping for..dont open the door to the trolls ok...watch the storm and wait it out.
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Quoting 407. sar2401:

LOL. I was thinking the same thing. 97L really doesn't have much of a chance to develop, if it's going to develop, until it gets east of the Antilles. The NHC has been pretty clear about this, so the fact it's not "undergoing RI and will soon be a monster!!!" is to be expected. I marvel at some bloggers who think the NHC didn't schedule any recon flights has no meaning.

Recon is scheduled for Tuesday.

Were you out walking your dog again? ;)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


And here we go, the mood will go from "we'll have to watch this for significant development" to "season is a bust," by 5pm.

LOL. I was thinking the same thing. 97L really doesn't have much of a chance to develop, if it's going to develop, until it gets west of the Antilles. The NHC has been pretty clear about this, so the fact it's not "undergoing RI and will soon be a monster!!!" is to be expected. I marvel at some bloggers who think the NHC didn't schedule any recon flights has no meaning.
Member Since: October 2, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 16114
this thing is pretty massive in size....the low level vort now west of the islands is refusing to die...its still extremely elongated...and now theres what appears to be a new vort attempting to spin up just east of st. lucia...


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Popcorn convection showing up all around the invest, and no outflow boundaries yet. Still way too early to say if it's weakening. The aforementioned popcorn convection can signal a forthcoming larger burst.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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