Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2013

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A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving westward at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands. Top sustained winds in the islands as of 10 am AST Sunday were 26 mph at Monserrat. Heavy thunderstorm activity has sharply increased since Saturday, as seen on satellite loops. A large circulation is evident, with some westerly winds blowing to the south of the disturbance. However, the thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows some rotation to the echoes, though well-organized spiral bands are not evident, and do not appear to be forming. Wind shear has dropped to a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be in the low to moderate range for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. The main factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days would appear to be the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Wednesday or Thursday, when the disturbance reaches the Central Caribbean. The wave will likely spread heavy rains to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic by Tuesday, and to Haiti by Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Wednesday, and near Jamaica on Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC boosted the 5-day odds of formation of 97L to 30%, and the 2-day odds to 20%.


Video 1. You can see why landslides triggered by heavy rains from a tropical cyclone are among the most dangerous hazards of these storms, thanks to a dashboard cam that caught this extraordinary rock slide in Northeast Taiwan on August 31, 2013, after heavy rains from a cold front drenched the island with up to 200 mm (7.87") of rain in 24 hours. The rains fell upon soils already saturated by Thursday's torrential rains from Tropical Storm Kong-Rey, which dumped up to 482 mm (19") of rain on Taiwan, killing three people. The driver of the car caught in the rock slide survived with minor injuries. Thanks go to wunderground member Robert Speta for bringing this video to my attention. A separate video showing the damage to the car and the course of the rock slide is here.

Jeff Masters

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any one noted this in the two


OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Was without power still this day a year ago post Isaac, but the jenny was running..the Parlor Room Window AC.


Saints vs Falcons here Sept 8th. A week today.


AL97 would have to Hustle to make that, but I haven't crunch the runs to that hour yet.

Maybe I shouldn't.
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POSS.T.C.F.A.
97L/INV/XX/XX
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Looks like Mother nature knows when it is September 1st.
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Quoting 490. SFLWeatherman:
40%!!!!




The NHC is starting to show 97L a little love...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 493. Patrap:


Greeting hydrus,



Looks like we have a seeded CV one trying to become a player at the big table. Penny slot Named storms are over.



I thought that storms are only truly CV storms if they form in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands...if not their origins are considered a "wave that left the African coast on xx date".
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
Quoting 477. opal92nwf:
If we happen to get a Gulf storm at some time, it will have to work around this huge cold eddy in the Eastern Gulf.

However, I dare say that at least a category 3 is possible for anyone on the gulf coast. The reason I say this is because of the great example of hurricane Ophelia in 2011 which bombed out to category 4 strength while under meager TCHP levels. Here is the archive image of the TCHP in the Atlantic on October 2nd when Hurricane Ophelia reached peak intensity just northeast of Bermuda at 140mph.

Look just to the northeast of the little dot of Bermuda which is east of the border of the Carolinas and that is where category 4 strength occured.^^

Location of Hurricane Ophelia at peak intensity near Bermuda. ^^^^
It is warm enough at the surface to keep a major hurricane going unless it slows or stalls. Either way anything that passes over the Western Caribbean will have plenty of juice to work with.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 494. wunderkidcayman:
Wow I'm not surprised 97L up to 40%/50%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011748
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...



looks like 96L is dead now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
497. SLU
lol

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting that he called it a well-defined low pressure system.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The TWO surprised me lol.

Ol' Stewart.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Wow I'm not surprised 97L up to 40%/50%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011748
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting 482. hydrus:
D-Max dude..greetings Pat.


Greeting hydrus,



Looks like we have a seeded CV one trying to become a player at the big table. Penny slot Named storms are over.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
492. ackee
97L does has the potential to be the seasons first real threat if it develop not looking bad so far , but this seasons most system have fail to really get there act together lets see if 97L will change this trend
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
40%!!!!
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 478. PensacolaDoug:
Another d-max head-fake?
When the euro gets excited, I'll get on board.




I say for get about the gfs and euro it seems like they are the olny two mode runs that have been the wores all season I wounder how meany storms they have fail too pick up
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Quoting 467. MississippiWx:
Westerlies at the surface certainly aren't the problem for 97L. Tightening up its circulation while deepening is the biggest obstacle for now. I think it's certainly making an attempt to organize before entering the graveyard in the Eastern Caribbean. We will just have to see if it can continue. For now, it appears that few a convective bands are developing. I am cautiously optimistic about this system's development within the next couple of days.


Couldn't agree more with your statement, in its entirety.
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487. MahFL
Quoting 415. Patrap:
RECON is scheduled for Tuesday the 3rd, not tomorrow.


Monday is a holiday in the USA so they won't be flying then, lol.
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CMC
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Quoting 472. MBSCEOCHam:
Big difference from two days ago when CMC had 97L developing into a Hugo-type storm of the coast of SC on September 8.
yes but its still a possibility..alot of uncertainty right now...
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Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:38Z
Date: September 1, 2013

Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)

Mission: Training Mission (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Observation Number: 12

17:38:30Z 26.100N 79.183W 187.3 mb
(~ 5.53 inHg) 12,839 meters
(~ 42,123 feet) - 645 meters
(~ 2,116 feet) From 183° at 14 knots
(From the S at ~ 16.1 mph) -58.3°C*
(~ -72.9°F*) -* 14 knots
(~ 16.1 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:29:00Z (first observation), the observation was 51 miles (82 km) to the NW (309°) from Nassau, Bahamas



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good day folks,

Been following along in the shadows . . .

The difference in the latest runs between the GFS and the NAVGEM is a matter of timing, with e GFS almost a day behind what the NAVGEM is showing.

NAVGEM - 48 hours out



GFS - 69 hours out


Essentially, both show the ULL centered over Hipanolia opening up into an inverted trough of low pressure centered over Jamaica.

Timing is everything - the GFS would have 97L sheered from south to north, while the NAVGEM has less influence of ULL on 97L in the long run.

Will be interesting to see which one pans out. Nothing to happen until 97L moves into the Western Carrib.

Edit: correct - direction of sheer.
Member Since: June 25, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 3733
Quoting 479. Patrap:


Such a stretch of un-punctuated Logic, I must "totally agree Dude".

; )
D-Max dude..greetings Pat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Weak LLV or LLC near Dominica ...still it's a elongated low pressure with no N winds
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Quoting 455. watchingnva:
man...looks when it comes to tropical systems are crazy....look at this still frame :



if you didnt know any better, saw no loops and didnt go in depth like all of us on here do, 97l looks like a strenghthening ts well on its way to being a hurricane to the naked eye...

to the naked eye of a non weather nerd... very circular, banding evident and decent outflow....lol
The winds up high are changing fast. Which really is not unusual this time of year. I am guessing, but 97L is altering its environment...Which will help it organize.

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Quoting 465. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


they will likely end up home when they are done came up from the islands


Such a stretch of un-punctuated Logic, I must "totally agree Dude".

; )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another d-max head-fake?
When the euro gets excited, I'll get on board.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If we happen to get a Gulf storm at some time, it will have to work around this huge cold eddy in the Eastern Gulf.

However, I dare say that at least a category 3 is possible for anyone on the gulf coast. The reason I say this is because of the great example of hurricane Ophelia in 2011 which bombed out to category 4 strength while under meager TCHP levels. Here is the archive image of the TCHP in the Atlantic on October 2nd when Hurricane Ophelia reached peak intensity just northeast of Bermuda at 140mph.

Look just to the northeast of the little dot of Bermuda which is east of the border of the Carolinas and that is where category 4 strength occured.^^

Location of Hurricane Ophelia at peak intensity near Bermuda. ^^^^
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 14 Comments: 2897
Quoting 475. nrtiwlnvragn:
Lots of spread for the GFDL at least






that not good
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Lots of spread for the GFDL at least






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Quoting 459. beell:
97L-the-wave, has amplified this morning (more of a "kink").

still looks like a little drop sw too ever so slightly nothing big

still has to traverse the islands that will slow it up a little
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Big difference from two days ago when CMC had 97L developing into a Hugo-type storm of the coast of SC on September 8.
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Geesh
I take the day off from blogging on 97L and the blog turns into a mess,then again,97L is a mess ATM too. LOL.
Its very interesting to watch and speculate. Thats about all we can do,that and dig for any relevant readings,signals from bouys,etc.
BTW dont ships report weather anymore?
And where would you find such reports?
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Quoting 433. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Want some spaghetti, then go to pastaplots.com. Thanks Dennis Phillips. :P

BAMD, LBAR, CMC, GFTI, and AEMI showing a northward turn, the rest is west.



Quoting 434. ackee:
97L looking better organize poll time how strong witll 97L get

A TD
B TS
c hurricane
D cat 1
e major
F open wave
G Dissipate

*B. TS, I'm hoping for a TS which takes the storm thru the GOM and into Texas. Nothing stronger other than rain for TX. This is my best case and everyone wins scenario.

*What scares me is a stronger storm because BAMD seems to want to take it into the eastern Gulf/and or SW Fla...
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
Im going with the navgem model..next sunday 97L is sitting by the yucatan and the low behind it is sitting near the bahamas..we could be..looking at two strong storms NEXT sunday..so we sit and wait this out.
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Quoting 455. watchingnva:
man...looks when it comes to tropical systems are extremely deceiving....look at this still frame :



if you didnt know any better, saw no loops and didnt go in depth like all of us on here do, 97l looks like a strenghthening ts well on its way to being a hurricane to the naked eye...

to the naked eye of a non weather nerd... very circular, banding evident and decent outflow....lol


To the naked eye of a non weather nerd, it looks like a blob lol.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3714
Westerlies at the surface certainly aren't the problem for 97L. Tightening up its circulation while deepening is the biggest obstacle for now. I think it's certainly making an attempt to organize before entering the graveyard in the Eastern Caribbean. We will just have to see if it can continue. For now, it appears that few a convective bands are developing. I am cautiously optimistic about this system's development within the next couple of days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Awww man....my new monthly rent went up again this year...this time its about the value of the central pressure Wilma had @ her peak intensity...

Oh well...I will be able to soon move to a house next year with my savings....
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Quoting 461. Patrap:
Me think yer Koo-Koo, they still orbiting at 38K

and on Obs 11

Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:28Z
Date: September 1, 2013

Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)

Mission: Training Mission (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Observation Number: 11

17:28:30Z 25.500N 77.900W 188.0 mb
(~ 5.55 inHg) 12,849 meters
(~ 42,156 feet) - 676 meters
(~ 2,218 feet) From 214° at 10 knots
(From between the SSW and SW at ~ 11.5 mph) -58.0°C*
(~ -72.4°F*) -* 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:19:00Z (first observation), the observation was 44 miles (71 km) to the ESE (107°) from Nassau, Bahamas.


they will likely end up home when they are done came up from the islands
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Quoting 452. nrtiwlnvragn:


80KTS in 81 hrs
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Quoting 454. CybrTeddy:
Looking better organized based off satellite. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen.



This looks better than any Tropical system we have seen this season
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462. ackee
I think 97L centre is trying to reform closer to the main area of convention
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Me think yer Koo-Koo, they still orbiting at 38K



and on Obs 11,Se of the Bahamas

Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:28Z
Date: September 1, 2013

Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)

Mission: Training Mission (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Observation Number: 11

17:28:30Z 25.500N 77.900W 188.0 mb
(~ 5.55 inHg) 12,849 meters
(~ 42,156 feet) - 676 meters
(~ 2,218 feet) From 214 at 10 knots
(From between the SSW and SW at ~ 11.5 mph) -58.0C*
(~ -72.4F*) -* 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:19:00Z (first observation), the observation was 44 miles (71 km) to the ESE (107) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 407. sar2401:

LOL. I was thinking the same thing. 97L really doesn't have much of a chance to develop, if it's going to develop, until it gets east of the Antilles. The NHC has been pretty clear about this, so the fact it's not "undergoing RI and will soon be a monster!!!" is to be expected. I marvel at some bloggers who think the NHC didn't schedule any recon flights has no meaning.


You mean west? ;)
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459. beell
97L-the-wave, has amplified this morning (more of a "kink").

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16925
Quoting 451. weatherlover94:


Largo do you have any idea yet what the eventual landfall place will be ?
not yet..models are really split..cuba right now could be in the spotlight but so is the yucatan..we have to wait and see.
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Quoting 440. Patrap:

Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:18Z
Date: September 1, 2013

Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Mission: Training Mission (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Observation Number: 10

17:18:30Z 24.850N 76.600W 188.0 mb
(~ 5.55 inHg) 12,849 meters
(~ 42,156 feet) - 677 meters
(~ 2,221 feet) From 169° at 18 knots
(From between the SSE and S at ~ 20.7 mph) -58.1°C*
(~ -72.6°F*) -* 20 knots
(~ 23.0 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:09:00Z (first observation), the observation was 135 miles (218 km) to the ESE (115°) from Nassau, Bahamas.


there heading home too get ready for next mission
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
man...looks when it comes to tropical systems are extremely deceiving....look at this still frame :



if you didnt know any better, saw no loops and didnt go in depth like all of us on here do, 97l looks like a strenghthening ts well on its way to being a hurricane to the naked eye...

to the naked eye of a non weather nerd... very circular, banding evident and decent outflow....lol
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron