Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2013

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A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving westward at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands. Top sustained winds in the islands as of 10 am AST Sunday were 26 mph at Monserrat. Heavy thunderstorm activity has sharply increased since Saturday, as seen on satellite loops. A large circulation is evident, with some westerly winds blowing to the south of the disturbance. However, the thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows some rotation to the echoes, though well-organized spiral bands are not evident, and do not appear to be forming. Wind shear has dropped to a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be in the low to moderate range for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. The main factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days would appear to be the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Wednesday or Thursday, when the disturbance reaches the Central Caribbean. The wave will likely spread heavy rains to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic by Tuesday, and to Haiti by Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Wednesday, and near Jamaica on Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC boosted the 5-day odds of formation of 97L to 30%, and the 2-day odds to 20%.


Video 1. You can see why landslides triggered by heavy rains from a tropical cyclone are among the most dangerous hazards of these storms, thanks to a dashboard cam that caught this extraordinary rock slide in Northeast Taiwan on August 31, 2013, after heavy rains from a cold front drenched the island with up to 200 mm (7.87") of rain in 24 hours. The rains fell upon soils already saturated by Thursday's torrential rains from Tropical Storm Kong-Rey, which dumped up to 482 mm (19") of rain on Taiwan, killing three people. The driver of the car caught in the rock slide survived with minor injuries. Thanks go to wunderground member Robert Speta for bringing this video to my attention. A separate video showing the damage to the car and the course of the rock slide is here.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 543. taco2me61:


With all due respect Pat, I don't think we need to use Elena.... She was a True Puzzle until she finally made landfall....

Taco :o)
Hello Taco. Actually, there are similarities to Elena, and that is why he posted.. He knows what he,s doing.
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554. JRRP
more North
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Quoting 543. taco2me61:


With all due respect Pat, I don't think we need to use Elena.... She was a True Puzzle until she finally made landfall....

Taco :o)


Don't I know.

I moved 12 woodworking machines upstairs with the forklift Labor Day weekend in Long Beach.

Then took them down,then it turned back, and well, u know.

Tampa was lucky, Gulfport, not so.


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Quoting 545. Tazmanian:



we need too keep a eye on 97L it may start buiding a eye wall soon


Lets not get ahead of ourselves
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Only missing a closed surface circulation and we're there. Will the dry air in the mid levels and the size of 97L hamper that? With 97L looking as good as it is and the NHC only giving it a 50% chance over five days; makes me wonder if the NHC thinks this may be as good looking as 97L gets.
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I think 97L is takeing notes from TS KIKO
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549. SLU
Here comes empirical evidence that the center has relocated further east.

Barbados

2:00 PM 80.6 °F 87.1 °F 77.0 °F 89% 29.83 in 6.2 mi NW 10.4 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
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Quite conducive. Haven't heard that for a while.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2032
Just imagine the chaos in this blog if 97L got a name and went over these hot waters with never becoming a hurricane..

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Quoting 523. Patrap:
Looking today at the overall, 97 maybe broad still, but it is moving a lot of atmosphere around too.

I keep seeing Elena 1985, as Levi mentioned when it was a big dry swirl mostly in the Atlantic, which went on to become a formidable Cat 3 in the GOM.

Which rendered this now famous hurricane photo:
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Quoting 508. SLU:
Well if it's "well defined", it should be upgraded to at least a tropical depression since a ship reported winds of 25 - 35kts this morning long before it started to pull together.




we need too keep a eye on 97L it may start buiding a eye wall soon
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The 40% is warranted easily. Giving the overall synoptic pic.


Hints of a annular spreading canopy.


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Quoting 523. Patrap:
Looking today at the overall, 97 maybe broad still, but it is moving a lot of atmosphere around too.

I keep seeing Elena 1985, as Levi mentioned when it was a big dry swirl mostly in the Atlantic, which went on to become a formidable Cat 3 in the GOM.



With all due respect Pat, I don't think we need to use Elena.... She was a True Puzzle until she finally made landfall....

Taco :o)
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Quoting 532. LargoFl:
wow already,they must have found something in it..hope it dont get higher than a cat-1

"They" don"t have access to different data do "they"
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97L has done well today I think we could see a upgrade at 11pm tonight
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Quoting 493. Patrap:


Greeting hydrus,



Looks like we have a seeded CV one trying to become a player at the big table. Penny slot Named storms are over.

Yep. Its that time..I must say tho, this is a weird system. If 97 tracks south of Hispaniola, it will probably be a major..This of course is merely speculation on my part, and I hope 97 dies a miserable and thirsty death from the dry air that is in its general vicinity. In all honesty, I believe the dry air will be wet air in a short order.
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This is where NHC think 97L will be in 72hrs
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538. JRRP
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537. beell
The slower, southern track offered by a few models may allow a gentle upper ridge enough time to build over the top of the system. So far, the GFS keeps the ULAC just behind (east) the system-which may bring some shear into the mix.

Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16718
Could be IRIS (95) part II lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6228
Product: NOAA High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KWBC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:48Z
Date: September 1, 2013

Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)

Mission: Training Mission (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Observation Number: 13

17:48:30Z 26.750N 80.450W 187.5 mb
(~ 5.54 inHg) 12,825 meters
(~ 42,077 feet) - 639 meters
(~ 2,096 feet) From 169° at 8 knots
(From between the SSE and S at ~ 9.2 mph) -57.6°C*
(~ -71.7°F*) -* 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor

HDOB Observations

Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic

At 17:39:00Z (first observation), the observation was 55 miles (89 km) to the E (90°) from Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA
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Quoting 528. TylerStanfield:

Looking at the Low Level Inflow, it appears 97L may be trying to relocate the center closer to 58/59W.
i agree
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Quoting 515. GatorWX:


Next Saturday bud! :) Miami shall be the place, we'll see.
You already know. :) I think I have a hint how it'll end up considering how awful Miami's been playing. FAU game was nice though.
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Quoting 524. TylerStanfield:
wow already,they must have found something in it..hope it dont get higher than a cat-1
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Check out the 24 hour pressure changes in the islands. Seems like a fairly decent (and strengthening) low pressure is moving through there.



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Quoting 523. Patrap:
Looking today at the overall, 97 maybe broad still, but it is moving a lot of atmosphere around too.

I keep seeing Elena 854 as Levi mentioned when it was a big dry swirl mostly in the Atlantic, which went on to become a formidable Cat 3 in the GOM.


Looking at the Low Level Inflow, it appears 97L may be trying to relocate the center closer to 58/59W.
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Quoting 520. SenatorQ:
NHC Just posted the 2PM as follows. . . . .
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.



your this a little late there its all ready been posted
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Quoting 517. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 97X XXX 130901120000
2013090112
14.6 299.6
14.9 292.9
100
14.6 299.5
011500
1309011500
1
WTNT21 KNGU 011500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 60.5W
TO 14.9N 67.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 60.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, LOWER WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85
DEGREES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 021500Z.//9713083012 145N 485W 20
9713083018 146N 500W 20
9713083100 146N 515W 20
9713083106 146N 530W 20
9713083112 146N 545W 25
9713083118 146N 560W 25
9713090100 146N 575W 25
9713090106 146N 590W 25
9713090112 146N 605W 30

Keeper i guess they will keep flying into this storm now huh...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
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Looking today at the overall, 97 maybe broad still, but it is moving a lot of atmosphere around too.

I keep seeing Elena 1985, as Levi mentioned when it was a big dry swirl mostly in the Atlantic, which went on to become a formidable Cat 3 in the GOM.

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Quoting 512. MississippiWx:
Here is the wave Stewart mentioned that could develop once in the BOC. Just let it move over the Yucatan and gain a circulation first. Lol.




that wave looks too be other MX storm
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090115Z SEP 13
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/NLMC/OVLY2/0087/SEP
OVLY/TCFA/011500Z7/SEP/1OF1/TCFA AL9713/METOC
LINE/2//G/143600N4/0602400W2/145400N4/0670600W9
LINE/2//G/161200N0/0601800W5/125400N2/0603600W5
LINE/2//G/125400N2/0603600W5/131200N7/0671800W2
LINE/2//G/131200N7/0671800W2/163000N0/0670000W3
LINE/2//G/163000N0/0670000W3/161200N0/0601800W5
TEXT/20//G/115400N1/0634800W1/TCFA AL9713
TEXT/20//G/105400N0/0634800W1/VALID UNTIL 021500Z
TEXT/20//G/095400N8/0634800W1/WINDS: 20-25 KTS
TEXT/20//G/085400N7/0634800W1/MVG: W AT 15 KNOTS
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
NHC Just posted the 2PM as follows. . . . .
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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5-Day Odds are now at 50%, 2 Day Odds are 40%.
97L does have a potential to do something in the Caribbean, but she has to play her cards right. If she doesn't she will end up like Chantal, and Dorian.
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I sure hope this doesnt pull a stunt like Charley did huh
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ALERT ATCF MIL 97X XXX 130901120000
2013090112
14.6 299.6
14.9 292.9
100
14.6 299.5
011500
1309011500
1
WTNT21 KNGU 011500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 60.5W
TO 14.9N 67.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 60.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, LOWER WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85
DEGREES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 021500Z.//9713083012 145N 485W 20
9713083018 146N 500W 20
9713083100 146N 515W 20
9713083106 146N 530W 20
9713083112 146N 545W 25
9713083118 146N 560W 25
9713090100 146N 575W 25
9713090106 146N 590W 25
9713090112 146N 605W 30

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
516. SLU
Stacy should be on call 24/7.
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Quoting 495. MiamiHurricanes09:
The TWO surprised me lol.

Ol' Stewart.


Next Saturday bud! :) Miami shall be the place, we'll see.
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Quoting 508. SLU:
Well if it's "well defined", it should be upgraded to at least a tropical depression since a ship reported winds of 25 - 35kts this morning long before it started to pull together.




right will see what the 8pm two have too say I think we have a TD or TS forming we could be looking at a upgrade at 11pm or 5am Monday
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513. JRRP
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Here is the wave Stewart mentioned that could develop once in the BOC. Just let it move over the Yucatan and gain a circulation first. Lol.

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Quoting 469. LargoFl:
Im going with the navgem model..next sunday 97L is sitting by the yucatan and the low behind it is sitting near the bahamas..we could be..looking at two strong storms NEXT sunday..so we sit and wait this out.
Next Sunday would be the statistical peak of the season, so that does not seem far fetched. We wait and watch.
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Quoting 496. MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting that he called it a well-defined low pressure system.
I would say it is now well defined. Visible satellite loops show westerly winds to the south of the circulation starting to strengthen, which is also confirmed by the increasing winds reported at Barbados. Some very nice inflow from the SE now as well. Looking better and better.
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508. SLU
Well if it's "well defined", it should be upgraded to at least a tropical depression since a ship reported winds of 25 - 35kts this morning long before it started to pull together.

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New blog:

Gulf TCHP and Hurricane Ophelia
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mmmmmmm
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any one noted this in the two


OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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