Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L a Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2013

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A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving westward at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands. Top sustained winds in the islands as of 10 am AST Sunday were 26 mph at Monserrat. Heavy thunderstorm activity has sharply increased since Saturday, as seen on satellite loops. A large circulation is evident, with some westerly winds blowing to the south of the disturbance. However, the thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows some rotation to the echoes, though well-organized spiral bands are not evident, and do not appear to be forming. Wind shear has dropped to a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be in the low to moderate range for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. The main factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days would appear to be the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on Wednesday or Thursday, when the disturbance reaches the Central Caribbean. The wave will likely spread heavy rains to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Dominican Republic by Tuesday, and to Haiti by Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Wednesday, and near Jamaica on Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC boosted the 5-day odds of formation of 97L to 30%, and the 2-day odds to 20%.


Video 1. You can see why landslides triggered by heavy rains from a tropical cyclone are among the most dangerous hazards of these storms, thanks to a dashboard cam that caught this extraordinary rock slide in Northeast Taiwan on August 31, 2013, after heavy rains from a cold front drenched the island with up to 200 mm (7.87") of rain in 24 hours. The rains fell upon soils already saturated by Thursday's torrential rains from Tropical Storm Kong-Rey, which dumped up to 482 mm (19") of rain on Taiwan, killing three people. The driver of the car caught in the rock slide survived with minor injuries. Thanks go to wunderground member Robert Speta for bringing this video to my attention. A separate video showing the damage to the car and the course of the rock slide is here.

Jeff Masters

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1155. WoodyFL
Quoting 1127. stormhank:
what possible track will 97l take? could it pose any affects on florida down the road??


im no expert but the new models look like it going more into the Bahamas. they were all west before. its all days away so hard to tell


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Quoting 1105. GTstormChaserCaleb:
True, but has it ever occured to some that the GFS might be placing that ULL over Hispaniola a lot closer to 97L causing it to shear the system, I mean it could be wrong in that placement of the ULL. Appears to be moving away from 97L, don't you agree with that as well? Now there is another one coming down and moving towards the Southwest, gosh this set-up reminds me of 92L. Right now I really think it is a wait and see, this could be nothing at all or something big.





Um, yes, I did mention something like that earlier today.

The other factor is that all of the previous model runs were initiated using the center location further to the west. Now that it has been relocated/reformed to the east, this will change things.
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Quoting 1122. WXGulfBreeze:


Yes.

RIP.
lol!!!!
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Quoting 1098. FOREX:


East??
South?
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1213
little too no shear not good


SHEAR (KT) 5 11 8 5 7 9 9 9 8 8 4 9 8

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Quoting 1131. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Is it? Barbados has a north wind.

Martinique had NE winds for hours and have now switched to NW.

The Ramsdis loop shows Barbados and Martinique both having NW winds. ST. Lucia wind barbs have been ENE for hours so perhaps that reading is broken as it does not mesh with the others
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1148. Gearsts
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Quoting 1139. Siker:


There's a difference between "solid" and "guaranteed". Again, what would you consider "solid"?


I'd consider 70% and up 'solid'.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 34 Comments: 2155
Quoting 1144. CybrTeddy:
That's the new one Taz. 18 UTC.



ok thanks
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Quoting 1137. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS keeps 850 mb. vorticity around for 97L. The way it is conservatively developing 97L is reminiscent to the way it handled 92L and Fernand.


It's very early in the run, but to me the 18z run looks more aggressive on development chances of 97L.
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That's the new one Taz. 18 UTC.
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1143. WoodyFL
im sorry if this was posted already



WTNT21 KNGU 011500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 60.5W
TO 14.9N 67.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 60.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT, HOWEVER MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, LOWER WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WEST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85
DEGREES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 021500Z.//
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You can really see the LLC tightening up in this loop.

look at 14.7N/61.7W
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1141. JRRP
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is this new or old and when dos the next update come


* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972013 09/01/13 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 63 70 76 81 85 86 87
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 63 70 76 81 85 86 87
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 52 63 75 87 98 106 109 109
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 11 8 5 7 9 9 9 8 8 4 9 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 172 168 170 136 112 143 112 150 91 148 208 233 233
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 151 151 154 155 155 154 152 154 157 160
ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 145 144 144 149 150 152 150 148 149 148 150
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12
700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 58 60 61 61 64 62 61 60 61 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 32 42 50 60 60 69 57 61 48 39 35
200 MB DIV 53 58 21 0 9 32 15 23 33 21 25 3 3
700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 3 4 2 1
LAND (KM) 445 414 402 400 388 381 396 354 243 122 44 47 109
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.9 18.7 19.3
LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.6 61.4 62.2 62.9 64.5 66.1 68.0 70.1 72.2 74.6 76.7 78.6
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 48 35 45 42 41 50 52 48 44 35 46 40 54

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 33. 40. 46. 51. 55. 56. 57.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/01/13 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/01/2013 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
1139. Siker
Quoting 1123. SuperStorm093:
Oh really, didnt the one invest have a code red and never did anything??? lol, haters will hate cause they dont like people who dont wish


There's a difference between "solid" and "guaranteed". Again, what would you consider "solid"?
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Quoting 1127. stormhank:
what possible track will 97l take? could it pose any affects on florida down the road??


I knew someone would ask that sooner or later. The truth is no one knows at this time.
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The GFS keeps 850 mb. vorticity around for 97L. The way it is conservatively developing 97L is reminiscent to the way it handled 92L and Fernand.

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1136. Gearsts
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1135. JRRP
Quoting SuperStorm093:
which is why the gfs cant be discounted not showing any formation. lots of wishcasting going on here

really ??
looks the GFS from Aug 30 00z run


12z


Aug 31 00z run


12z


so... youre still thinking that we are wishcasting
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1134. Gearsts
Quoting 1126. MississippiWx:


I can handle it on my own. Thanks.
just ignore him please
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093, don't you have other things besides being here. Cause obviously you have no clue what your talking about and you don't have facts about this season so far. You just act like you do , but you really don't!! With all this said I am finally going to use the ignore feature like a lot of others have done already.
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18z GFS develops whats left of 97L south of hispanola.. 1008mb closed low
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Quoting 1111. kmanislander:
The center is the "eye like" feature in this image immediately to the East of Martinique which now has NW winds.


Is it? Barbados has a north wind.
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Quoting 1127. stormhank:
what possible track will 97l take? could it pose any affects on florida down the road??


some models did hint at a Charley track earlier.
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Ascat broken? map thing on the site blank...
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Two likely scenarios for 97L tonight, decide for yourself if you consider it "best case" or "worst case."

  • 97L continues to organize in spite of DMIN (which it's getting very close to peak looking at the satellite), and there's another blowup over night that results in 97L's surface circulation to become better defined and less broad in nature. This scenario would lead to a formation of a Tropical Depression sometime within the next 48 hours and would more than likely result in a formidable hurricane developing in the western Caribbean.
  • 97L fades suddenly into DMIN, and although there's a blowup overnight it becomes less organized at the surface levels with competing circulations as it enters the Caribbean. This scenario would cause 97L to struggle through the next 96 hours as it traverses through the graveyard, before developing in the western Caribbean and taking a path similar, probably farther north though, to Fernand a few weeks ago.
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what possible track will 97l take? could it pose any affects on florida down the road??
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Quoting 1112. Gearsts:
OMG please stop talking to him and just ignored.


I can handle it on my own. Thanks.
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Quoting 1096. CaribBoy:


bust

Where are you ?
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Quoting 1105. GTstormChaserCaleb:
True, but has it ever occured to some that the GFS might be placing that ULL over Hispaniola a lot closer to 97L causing it to shear the system, I mean it could be wrong in that placement of the ULL. Appears to be moving away from 97L, don't you agree with that as well? Now there is another one coming down and moving towards the Southwest, gosh this set-up reminds me of 92L. Right now I really think it is a wait and see, this could be nothing at all or something big.




It appears to be just far enough away from the ULL that it is not sheared, slowing down 97L that is is helping it.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
Quoting 1115. Siker:


Solid chance? Really? What would you call a "solid chance", because 50% seems pretty solid to me.
Oh really, didnt the one invest have a code red and never did anything??? lol, haters will hate cause they dont like people who dont wish
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Quoting 1117. WoodyFL:
97L just disappeared from most of the model sites. Does that mean theres a change coming soon.


Yes.

RIP.
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1121. Gearsts
Quoting 1106. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS initializes too far north, a little too far west, too weak, and without a closed circulation. It continues to bust forecasts.

Looks ok to me.
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I think we should keep an eye on the spin at 15N, 62W. Very tight and is wrapping convection around itself. While it certainly looks like a runt compared to the massive portion of the invest to the East, it may win out just because it's nowhere near as broad. And it looks like it's already closed off, so it probably could avoid the effects of the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting 1108. Bluestorm5:
Except this got low level circulation and is firing up lot of thunderstorm even though it's close to D-MIN. And this is the best looking invest of the year IMO. I'm not trying to be blunt but you never forecast ANYTHING. You kept jumping to conclusion that this storm won't develops, the season busted, etc WITHOUT FACTS! I would love to see how you show up on this blog if this became a strong storm when it hit that pool of high energy they call NW Caribbean. We will see what this storm is going to do.


What are you talking about??? I gave plenty of facts on why it would be a no show in August.

Stable Air, Wind Shear, the constant ULL's preventing development, I could go on and on.

I would great if we get a strong storm, that is why I am here, to track storms, not blobs.
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1117. WoodyFL
97L just disappeared from most of the model sites. Does that mean theres a change coming soon.
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I'm out of here for a hour. And don't worry, I ignored him finally. Just had to sent him a message.
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1115. Siker
Quoting 1090. SuperStorm093:
One quick question, yes I say this a lot, but at this point I DONT CARE really.

Has my forecast for the storms this year been wrong? no, I got the 3 storms right and the other invest that didnt pan out right. I dont downcast, I just dont hype up the situation when I know it doesnt have a SOLID chance, this could become a nice storm, but its not even organized. looks like the past 5 invests we have had, BLOBS.


Solid chance? Really? What would you call a "solid chance", because 50% seems pretty solid to me.
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Quoting 1106. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS initializes too far north, a little too far west, too weak, and without a closed circulation. It probably shouldn't be taken to heart.




that's why am discounteding the GFS it has been a outliner the hole season
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
1113. JRRP
Quoting CaribBoy:


NO please noooo!

lol
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1112. Gearsts
Quoting 1104. MississippiWx:


We bow to your infinite wisdom. No one on here is worthy of your time.

OMG please stop talking to him and just ignored.
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The center is the "eye like" feature in this image immediately to the East of Martinique which now has NW winds.

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Quoting 1104. MississippiWx:


We bow to your infinite wisdom. No one on here is worthy of your time.



your missing my point, who cares if I am right...no one on here does, but dont call me a downcaster. Obviously downplaying every storm this year has been the correct and right thing to do as you can see from the ZERO hurricanes we have had,
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Appears to be an ULL near Hispanola that is providing some ventilation for 97L.
Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
Quoting 1090. SuperStorm093:
One quick question, yes I say this a lot, but at this point I DONT CARE really.

Has my forecast for the storms this year been wrong? no, I got the 3 storms right and the other invest that didnt pan out right. I dont downcast, I just dont hype up the situation when I know it doesnt have a SOLID chance, this could become a nice storm, but its not even organized. looks like the past 5 invests we have had, BLOBS.
Except this got low level circulation and is firing up lot of thunderstorm even though it's close to D-MIN. And this is the best looking invest of the year IMO. I'm not trying to be blunt but you never forecast ANYTHING. You kept jumping to conclusion that this storm won't develops, the season busted, etc WITHOUT FACTS! I would love to see how you show up on this blog if this became a strong storm when it hit that pool of high energy they call NW Caribbean. We will see what this storm is going to do.
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Quoting 1103. Maineweatherguy20023:

Ok will do. thanks for that!!



go a head and hit proceed any way and it will take you right too the navy site where you see 97L and 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
The GFS initializes too far north, a little too far west, too weak, and without a closed circulation. It continues to bust forecasts.

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Quoting 1081. SuperStorm093:
which is why the gfs cant be discounted not showing any formation. lots of wishcasting going on here
True, but has it ever occured to some that the GFS might be placing that ULL over Hispaniola a lot closer to 97L causing it to shear the system, I mean it could be wrong in that placement of the ULL. Appears to be moving away from 97L, don't you agree with that as well? Now there is another one coming down and moving towards the Southwest, gosh this set-up reminds me of 92L. Right now I really think it is a wait and see, this could be nothing at all or something big.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.