Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1252. KoritheMan:


CPAC hasn't done so hot on ACE or hurricane production either.

Well CPAC usually doesn't have storms, so I guess we can say it's active.
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Quoting 1262. CaribBoy:


:-( No rain...
u in the north part of the islands?
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Quoting 1263. KoritheMan:


I think one of my uncles has cirrhosis. I'm not close to the guy at all, but it's still not the best thing in the world to hear about.

Sorry to hear about it. Hope it all goes well. As well as a funeral possibly can, anyway.
Thanks Kori I am leaving see you guys tomorrow or if I can connect by phone later.I need to go to misa at 11am so I am not going to be in the morning either.Nights
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COC moved SW

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and with that Here is the September outlook. Lets see what the month brings Im ready!
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Everybody in central time zone happy September!!
check out the feature se of 97L hmmm!!
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Quoting 1258. allancalderini:
Yeah he was the dad of a very dearly classmate of mine.He die of cirrhosis that is how its spell in english right? because in spanish is cirrosis.


I think one of my uncles has cirrhosis. I'm not close to the guy at all, but it's still not the best thing in the world to hear about.

Sorry to hear about it. Hope it all goes well. As well as a funeral possibly can, anyway.
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Quoting 1247. bigwes6844:
definitely moving wsw


:-( No rain...
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6103
HE He He 973
Son of Gilbert

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1260. MahFL
Quoting 1216. Levi32:


Sorry, G-IV was what I meant.


Gonzo sampled the area to 97L's west.
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Quoting 1248. KoritheMan:


Am I the only one that actually wants to see this? We're so close, darnit!


I AM! And everyone made fun of me when my prediction for this year was at 8-4-1, lol, including myself. Well, now I shall have my revenge!
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 100 Comments: 10217
Quoting 1257. KoritheMan:


Funerals suck.
Yeah he was the dad of a very dearly classmate of mine.He die of cirrhosis that is how its spell in english right? because in spanish is cirrosis.
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Quoting 1254. allancalderini:
Sorry :P I am not thinking straight right now just come home to change to go again to a funeral.


Funerals suck.
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Quoting 1255. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's done a lot better than it was forecast to and than it usually does.


Still irrelevant to happenstances on a global scale.
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Quoting 1252. KoritheMan:


CPAC hasn't done so hot on ACE or hurricane production either.

It's done a lot better than it was forecast to and than it usually does.
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Quoting 1252. KoritheMan:


CPAC hasn't done so hot on ACE or hurricane production either.
Sorry :P I am not thinking straight right now just come home to change to go again to a funeral.
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Quoting 1247. bigwes6844:
definitely moving wsw

As expected



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Quoting 1251. allancalderini:
Lol maybe I am just divide the NHEM has sure been lacking in storms and majors just the cpac have been active so far.


CPAC hasn't done so hot on ACE or hurricane production either.
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Quoting 1250. KoritheMan:


I can appreciate historical anomalies of any kind. Pretty irrelevant to what they are.
Lol maybe I am just divide the NHEM has sure been lacking in storms and majors just the cpac have been active so far.
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Quoting 1249. allancalderini:
I am actually rooting for it even though I am disappoint at the lack of hurricanes and majors when supposedly this was a season that would feature strong and lovely cape verdes.


I can appreciate historical anomalies of any kind. Pretty irrelevant to what they are.
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Quoting 1248. KoritheMan:


Am I the only one that actually wants to see this? We're so close, darnit!
I am actually rooting for it even though I am disappoint at the lack of hurricanes and majors when supposedly this was a season that would feature strong and lovely cape verdes.
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Quoting 1243. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 00z GFS says the 2002 record of having the latest formation date for the first Atlantic hurricane season in a particular year will fall.



Am I the only one that actually wants to see this? We're so close, darnit!
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definitely moving wsw
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Quoting 1244. scott39:
Lol, basically


Alright, cool.
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1244. scott39
Quoting 1242. KoritheMan:


Our psychotic fantasies? Is that what you meant to say in no uncertain terms? :)
Lol, basically
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The 00z GFS says the 2002 record of having the latest formation date for the first Atlantic hurricane season in a particular year (September 11) will fall.

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Quoting 1240. scott39:
Its nice to be able to express our crazy...Um uh I mean enthusiasm for Hurricanes!


Our psychotic fantasies? Is that what you meant to say in no uncertain terms? :)
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Quoting 1228. bigwes6844:


97L is responding to DMAX.. which our latest storms haven't.
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1240. scott39
Quoting 1239. KoritheMan:


I've been waiting for you [the hurricane, not you] to capture my imagination
cause I've been fooled by the illusions in my head
Its nice to be able to express our crazy...Um uh I mean enthusiasm for Hurricanes!
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Quoting 1236. scott39:
You have to chant that out loud and in your head at least 10 times a day. Then start calling for it to come in your direction. Thats what I did in 2004 and 2005. Laughing!


I've been waiting for you [the hurricane, not you] to capture my imagination
cause I've been fooled by the illusions in my head

That's the song I'm dedicating to this hypothetical hurricane.
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1238. IKE

Quoting KoritheMan:


In 2014.
Apparently so.
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Quoting 1234. IKE:
00Z GFS @ 165 hours....where are the canes?




In 2014.
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1236. scott39
Quoting 1191. KoritheMan:
Is this my hurricane?

Is this my hurricane!?

IS THIS MY HURRICANE?!

I'M WAITING FOR YOU
You have to chant that out loud and in your head at least 10 times a day. Then start calling for it to come in your direction. Thats what I did in 2004 and 2005. Laughing!
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Quoting 1233. KoritheMan:


It's worth noting that 2002, the last year where there were no August hurricanes, saw 8 September named storms, which was a record unmatched at the time.
yep almost like flipping eggs over on a stove one side not cooked but the other side almost ready! And thats what September is gonna bring Game on! Geaux Tigers!
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1234. IKE
00Z GFS @ 165 hours....where are the canes?


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Quoting 1230. bigwes6844:
IMO getting active like I knew. Here comes September where things gonna break loose. Sit back and watch


It's worth noting that 2002, the last year where there were no August hurricanes, saw 8 September named storms, which was a record unmatched at the time. Among that tally were the infamous hurricanes Isidore and Lili, and erratic Hurricane Kyle, which ultimately hit the South Carolina coast as a tropical storm.
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Quoting 1224. TampaSpin:




Annular. This is not going to be good.
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1231. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Graphics come with bar codes now? :)


LOL

I am unsure what happened there.
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IMO getting active like I knew. Here comes September where things gonna break loose. Sit back and watch
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Quoting 1224. TampaSpin:




Graphics come with bar codes now? :)
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Taken 0315 on 09-01-2013,that is 30 kt. shear pushes those clouds over to the ne.
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1226. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
12:00 PM JST September 1 2013
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression North Of Yaeyama Islands

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 25.2N 123.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 26.8N 125.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Okinawa Island
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Quoting 1193. pottery:

OK, that's looking like a circle to me.......
Closed, reasonably tight, etc.

What's the catch ?


I don't really see any catch. Looks like smooth sailin for 97L wherever..he/she.. decides to go. Upward MJO, notta lotta shear, boiling water, a glide path to landfall. ??
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There is another low a few days behind 97L.
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1220. SLU
Quoting 1209. pottery:

Never even heard about that until the next day.
Got 2.5'', but just west of here there was plenty more.

Looks like that stuff at 45W is coming.......


OK great

Looking forward to some rain tomorrow. Goodnight.
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The positive Atlantic tripole is trying to make a return.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.