Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1315. GatorWX:
Only 20% for the next five days too, seems the NHC hasn't become any more confident. It actually looks very similar to how id did about 36 hours ago.

Give it time
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
97L doesn't look all that bad to tell you the truth yeah it gotta bit of dry air on its S side but convection is starting to build somewhat on its N NW NE sides and its starting to build Sward give it some time and it will be covered and if you look at the flash version of the loop not animated pic and click on wind and HDW-L surface obs do show a good circulation or at least the W half of it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
1317. vis0
Blogged on ml-d oops i had Saturday. Of interest to some is to observe what changes show up from Saturday eve till Monday eve anywhere under the ml-d AOI, Blog has old ml-d graphics showing rough outline of area. My interest would be to see if for these 2+ days sinking air trend area in the Tropical /North Atlantic slows or stops.
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1316. GatorWX
Another damp morning I see, can hear em and see em offshore already.



I love sitting on the porch with tstms offshore while it's dark.
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1315. GatorWX
Only 20% for the next five days too, seems the NHC hasn't become any more confident. It actually looks very similar to how id did about 36 hours ago.
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1314. GatorWX
I think that dry air is a bit more of an issue this morning.




Notice the direction of shear. Still has its little anitcyclone though.
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Quoting 1311. GatorWX:


Structure looks pitiful.






What'd you pull an all-nighter watching this thing? :)


Lol kinda I did sleep for about 3 hrs woke up around 3
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Quoting 1310. docrod:


mornin' coffee and spinach omelets!

Hmm spinach omelette I could do with some of that now
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1311. GatorWX
Quoting 1308. wunderkidcayman:

Lol it relocated to 14.0N 58.3W

Looking at obs on that same sat loop suggest the same


Structure looks pitiful.






What'd you pull an all-nighter watching this thing? :)
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1310. docrod


mornin' coffee and spinach omelets!
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Quoting 1308. wunderkidcayman:

Lol it relocated to 14.0N 58.3W

Looking at obs on that same sat loop suggest the same

A matter of fact according to BEST track data 97L was never at 15N
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Quoting 1306. GatorWX:
Morning Y'all!

Yikes, what'd you guys do to it while I was safe asleep? :)


Lol it relocated to 14.0N 58.3W

Looking at obs on that same sat loop suggest the same
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
1307. GatorWX
Meanwhile, across the rock:

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1306. GatorWX
Morning Y'all!

Yikes, what'd you guys do to it while I was safe asleep? :)

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Quoting 1303. canehater1:


Possibly, but there is currently an 80% chance it won't..

More like 50%
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Quoting 1301. RGVtropicalWx13:

For 97L that trend will soon end later this week in the Caribbean.


Possibly, but there is currently an 80% chance it won't..
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TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY FROM 12-19N ALONG 58W HAS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 15N...
CONFIRMED BY RECON EXPERIMENT DATA FROM SAT AFTERNOON. NE-E
WINDS AT 20-25 KT/SEAS 6-9 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
15N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE GRADIENT THE GRADIENT RELAXING TO 15-20 KT
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE TONIGHT. THE LOW PRES CENTER NOW
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE WAVE AXIS REACHING NEAR 15N61W
TONIGHT...NEAR 16N63W AT SUNRISE ON MON...REACHING NEAR 17N64W
ON MON NIGHT...THEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON TUE. THE
WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED ACCOMPANIED
BY NE 10-15 KT WINDS W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS
E OF THE WAVE AXIS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT FROM THE E BEGINNING
LATE FRI AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN.

Marine Wx Discussion
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Quoting 1295. canehater1:
96-L is dying, 97-L is not much to look at either.
.
It's a bad year to be a TC.

For 97L that trend will soon end later this week in the Caribbean.
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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013

THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO SEEMS TO HAVE HALTED TONIGHT.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A
TIGHT INNER CORE...BUT THE CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS SYMMETRIC
WITH THE CENTER NOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEER OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 60
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA.

KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD CROSS THE
26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY VERY SOON AND COULD STILL BECOME HURRICANE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO LONGER EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE
UPDATED FOREAST. COOLER SSTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT.
KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS
AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 010/6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE EASTERN
PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN
THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
KIKO GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED
TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 20.6N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 115.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013

...KIKO MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 115.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Quoting 1291. HadesGodWyvern:
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 1316 YUTU

FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 020600UTC 34.8N 178.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 030600UTC 36.5N 181.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
72HR
POSITION 040600UTC 37.8N 183.3E WITHIN 175NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
96HR
POSITION 050600UTC 38.5N 185.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 1002HPA

KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

---
What is wrong with Korea?

They hardly use western coordinates, that's probably why. Take a look at this:

Date(UTC)

Position(Lat(N)/Lon(E))

Central Pressure (hPa)

Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s / km/h)

Radius of 15 m/s(km)

Intensity

Scale

Moving Direction

Moving Speed(km/h)

Radius of 70% probability(km)

2013.09.01. 06:00 Analysis 33.6 176.5 1000 18 65 200
Weak Small NNE 21
2013.09.02. 06:00 Forecast 34.8 178.7 998 18 65 220
Weak Small ENE 10 140
2013.09.03. 06:00 Forecast 36.5 181.0 1000 18 65 200
Weak Small NE 12 230
2013.09.04. 06:00 Forecast 37.8 183.3 1000 18 65 180
Weak Small ENE 11 320
2013.09.05. 06:00 Forecast 38.5 185.2 1002 ENE 8
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Quoting 1292. CaribBoy:


yes
yeah sorry they mite give u something maybe never say never!
Quoting 1286. L1990:


the storms are popping but they are fadding just as fast

Yea i see that
With that Good Night everyone see yall at 8

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96-L is dying, 97-L is not much to look at either.
.
It's a bad year to be a TC.
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0z GFDL ensemble

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1293. TXCWC
Intensity forecast all over the place. Nothing to Cat 3 Cane...keep an eye on the TVCA track



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Quoting 1268. bigwes6844:
u in the north part of the islands?


yes
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254
1291. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 1316 YUTU

FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 020600UTC 34.8N 178.7E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 030600UTC 36.5N 181.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
72HR
POSITION 040600UTC 37.8N 183.3E WITHIN 175NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
96HR
POSITION 050600UTC 38.5N 185.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 1002HPA

KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

---
What is wrong with Korea?
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Tropical Storm Yutu track forecast
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1289. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM YUTU (T1316)
15:00 PM JST September 1 2013
==============================

Midway Island Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Yutu (1002 hPa) located at 33.5N 176.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 33.7N 178.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
48 HRS: 34.2N 179.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
72 HRS: 34.5N 176.5W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
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EP, 11, 2013090106, , BEST, 0, 203N, 1156W, 60, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KIKO, D,
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Yesterday, it looked as if all "hope" was lost for this season. The crying began, the wailing could be heard across these boards. The MJO was evaporating into dry air.

However, be careful what you wish for ...

Quoting 341. OracleDeAtlantis: on August 30, 2013 - 8:10 PM

A selective Simoom was announced June 12, 2013.

Ask, from dusk to dawn, and from dust to dew, will the deserts not bloom again?

They will bloom, but not in favor of most men. It will be against them.

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1286. L1990
Quoting 1247. bigwes6844:
definitely moving wsw


the storms are popping but they are fadding just as fast
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AL, 97, 2013090106, , BEST, 0, 140N, 583W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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01/0530 UTC 20.3N 115.6W T3.5/3.5 KIKO -- East Pacific
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AL, 96, 2013090106, , BEST, 0, 163N, 202W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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Egads. 1:25 AM for me. Good night/morning blog.

Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10364
1280. sar2401
Quoting JLPR2:
OSCAT pass... yeah...

Hmm...



...

Still looks to me that that disturbance off Brazil headed toward TD status faster than 97L.
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1279. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's worth noting that 2002, the last year where there were no August hurricanes, saw 8 September named storms, which was a record unmatched at the time. Among that tally were the infamous hurricanes Isidore and Lili, and erratic Hurricane Kyle, which ultimately hit the South Carolina coast as a tropical storm.

Assuming the GFS is right, that would mean a hurricane every 2.25 days. I don't thing there are enough storms from Africa and the Caribbean combined to produce those kind of numbers. If we get 4, I'll be satisfied, but I'm not sure even that's going to happen. We went through the whole month of August with three candidates and they all keeled over. My experience is that September gets stronger but is still based on how August did, so I expect to see more almost hurricanes, as I expect 97L will become.
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1278. JLPR2
OSCAT pass... yeah...

Hmm...



...
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1277. sar2401
Quoting bigwes6844:
i wonder if this gonna come true? this was posted aug 22nd
One of the good things about models extending to September 7 is that, if you show four lows from the Atlantic to the Caribbean, on of them is likely t show up within a few hundred miles of where they model showed it, therefore allowing them to claim victory. It's the statistical model of rolling dice.
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1276. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

As expected




Actually, the models you posted (which are now 12 hours old) all show a NW or NNW track. Not one shows a SW track, so how is this expected?
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Quoting bigwes6844:
definitely moving wsw
Not for long, I think, if it gets stronger, it should feel the ULL approaching EspaƱola, and move WNW,...just my 2 cents on this,,,,
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KIKO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND ON MONDAY.

2. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Everything's quiet. Too quiet.

Wait. It's the middle of the night for most folks.

Still too quiet.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10364
Quoting 1270. bigwes6844:
i wonder if this gonna come true? this was posted aug 22nd


Doesn't seem like it anymore. 384-hr forecasts are always blind forecasts anyways.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10364
i wonder if this gonna come true? this was posted aug 22nd
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Quoting 1252. KoritheMan:


CPAC hasn't done so hot on ACE or hurricane production either.

Well CPAC usually doesn't have storms, so I guess we can say it's active.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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