Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1359. GatorWX:
hmmm, It looked much better yesterday afternoon imo.

Stretched!..and not stacked yet at all.



It's got issues!

That could change very quickly

Quoting 1361. nrtiwlnvragn:



Martinique
01 06:30 N 3

Saint Lucia
01 06:00 Calm

Barbados
01 06:00 W 3


And a bouy near 15.8N 57.4W shows E wind
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
1368. Kyon5
Best track of 97L:

AL, 97, 2013090106, , BEST, 0, 140N, 583W, 25, 1009, DB,
Member Since: July 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
Quoting 1355. islander101010:
lived in miramar for 13 yrs back in the 70-80s love the island and the boriquens who live on it
Thousands are leaving this island to the states.It's impossible to live here.
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1366. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
back in the days total precip. amounts were an indication of the hurricane potential downstream. guessing localized 6-8 inches with 97. i lived in the condo right across the road from lums on calle miramar. 13 yrs no direct hits a close one though with hugo.
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Quoting 1355. islander101010:
lived in miramar for 13 yrs back in the 70-80s love the island and the boriquens who live on it


Coincidence that I live in Miramar. (Calle Estado) Yes,PR is a beautiful island with lovely people.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14764
Quoting 1279. sar2401:

Assuming the GFS is right, that would mean a hurricane every 2.25 days. I don't thing there are enough storms from Africa and the Caribbean combined to produce those kind of numbers. If we get 4, I'll be satisfied, but I'm not sure even that's going to happen. We went through the whole month of August with three candidates and they all keeled over. My experience is that September gets stronger but is still based on how August did, so I expect to see more almost hurricanes, as I expect 97L will become.
The other year where we had 8 storms in Sept, I don't think we had any storms at all in August... and we got a couple of impressive majors along with the others to make 8.

I'm not saying your prognostication is wrong; I'm just suggesting 4 storms in the basin is quite possible, as is a storm forming every 3 days...
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Quoting 1358. VR46L:


Oh Man , I am sorry , ya never know what anyone goes through in real life .

Thank God for body armour but they need to make a darn armour for you rear end because yes it sounds funny but yes people do get shot in the butt
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710



Martinique
01 06:30 N 3

Saint Lucia
01 06:00 Calm

Barbados
01 06:00 W 3
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11305
morning
well a wet day in st lucia, SLU feel very soory for the Bexon and other areas prone to serious flooding in suci
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1359. GatorWX
hmmm, It looked much better yesterday afternoon imo.

Stretched!..and not stacked yet at all.



It's got issues!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
1358. VR46L
Quoting 1353. wunderkidcayman:


No the bad dreams are the reminders of what happen in Afghanistan



Oh Man , I am sorry , ya never know what anyone goes through in real life .
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Quoting 1252. KoritheMan:


CPAC hasn't done so hot on ACE or hurricane production either.
Just the amount of activity there this season seems notably higher than usual... usually the Twaves just surf through there S of Hawaii...

Quoting 1259. Astrometeor:


I AM! And everyone made fun of me when my prediction for this year was at 8-4-1, lol, including myself. Well, now I shall have my revenge!
You and the guy who kept saying there would be no storms in August... Lol... I kept telling him to just be patient because if he was right time would bear him out.... lol

Quoting 1270. bigwes6844:
i wonder if this gonna come true? this was posted aug 22nd
Let's not and just call the models crazy....

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Last know location for 97L was 14.0N 58.3W moving WSW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
lived in miramar for 13 yrs back in the 70-80s love the island and the boriquens who live on it
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1354. SLU
Quoting 1345. Tropicsweatherpr:
That feature SE of 97L looks interesting.


It's directly over some boiling hot water too.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Quoting 1332. VR46L:


Sorry to hear that , I hope ,its not the lack of decent storms doing it to ya ?


No the bad dreams are the reminders of what happen in Afghanistan

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
1352. SLU
Quoting 1345. Tropicsweatherpr:
That feature SE of 97L looks interesting.


It does. The models forecast it to move WNW in the next few days.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
1351. GatorWX
Quoting 1344. wunderkidcayman:

Oh I remember Hurricane Charley oh too well it was precursor to what we were going to have that September the worst hurricane in cayman history


That one is Sept was a doozy for the islands! We wont mention names.
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Quoting 1307. GatorWX:
Meanwhile, across the rock:

Fish tracker.
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1349. SLU
Quoting 1341. GatorWX:
SLU,

You think it's under that?



Yup. It appears to be about 30 miles east of Martinique.
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1348. LargoFl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
more organized than yesterday morning at this time
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Quoting 1248. KoritheMan:


Am I the only one that actually wants to see this? We're so close, darnit!
I'm hoping for an above average season, numbers-wise, AND for the record to fall... Imagine - no hurricanes until 12 Sept, AND 16-8-4....

LOL

Good morning all... rather early this Lovely Sunday Morning, I know.... but I had to have some coffee... breakfast is much later, but I've got regular, decaf, and my favorite flavored half-caff all perked and good to go...

See u guys later...
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That feature SE of 97L looks interesting.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14764
Quoting 1331. GatorWX:
Dun dun duunnnnn!



Sometimes you just never know wkc.

Oh I remember Hurricane Charley oh too well it was precursor to what we were going to have that September the worst hurricane in cayman history
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
Quoting 1336. islander101010:
going to be a heavy rain event no matter of organization.


Good morning. Agree about that. PR will get some weather from the northern part and here it floods a lot.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14764
1342. LargoFl
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1341. GatorWX
SLU,

You think it's under that?

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
1340. LargoFl
well its supposed to slow down under the islands and conditions improve midweek there,wens-thurs we should know soemthing more about strength and maybe where its going..lots of rain coming either way for the islands down there...
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1339. GatorWX
Quoting 1337. SLU:
The center of 97L has reformed near 14.7n 60.2w near the deep convection. Also, a ship just east of Guadeloupe and Antigua reported sustained winds of 25 - 35kts overnight. It looks like it's getting better organised.



Really? How so?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
1338. GatorWX
Seems quite telling to me regarding 97's appearance this morning.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
1337. SLU
The center of 97L has reformed near 14.8n 60.2w near the deep convection. Also, a ship just east of Guadeloupe and Antigua reported sustained winds of 25 - 35kts overnight. It looks like it's getting better organised.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
going to be a heavy rain event no matter of organization.
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1335. GatorWX
Quoting 1333. LargoFl:
good morning Gator..get some sleep my friend....we'll be watching this storm all week long if it holds together...


I just woke up, got about 7 1/2 hours. Our hypothetical storm has lots of work to do.
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1334. LargoFl
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1333. LargoFl
Quoting 1330. GatorWX:
Hey VR, Largo, morning guys!
good morning Gator..get some sleep my friend....we'll be watching this storm all week long if it holds together...
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1332. VR46L
Quoting 1324. wunderkidcayman:


Well I could have slept longer but I just couldn't sleep bad dreams


Sorry to hear that , I hope ,its not the lack of decent storms doing it to ya ?
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1331. GatorWX
Dun dun duunnnnn!



Sometimes you just never know wkc.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
1330. GatorWX
Hey VR, Largo, morning guys!
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1329. LargoFl
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1328. GatorWX
Quoting 1321. LargoFl:


And now drum roll, how about intensity? LoL Still somewhat fantasy until it organizes. Might never do anything if it becomes to stretched out. I'm not as confident as yesterday.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3797
Quoting 1326. GatorWX:


It has time and so do I. I ain't working or leaving for my trip til mid-Sept. I like my sleep though. ;)

Cool
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
1326. GatorWX
Quoting 1319. wunderkidcayman:

Give it time


It has time and so do I. I ain't working or leaving for my trip til mid-Sept. I like my sleep though. ;)
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Quoting 1321. LargoFl:

Yep models continue to shift further S and W
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Quoting 1320. VR46L:


Please tell me you are kidding ?... its going to meander for days before it might be something of significance ...


Well I could have slept longer but I just couldn't sleep bad dreams
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710
1323. VR46L
BTW Good Morning Folks !
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Quoting 1315. GatorWX:
Only 20% for the next five days too, seems the NHC hasn't become any more confident. It actually looks very similar to how id did about 36 hours ago.
Quoting 1319. wunderkidcayman:

Give it time

Trust me over the next 5 days that 20% will most likely change
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1321. LargoFl
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1320. VR46L
Quoting 1313. wunderkidcayman:


Lol kinda I did sleep for about 3 hrs woke up around 3


Please tell me you are kidding ?... its going to meander for days before it might be something of significance ...
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Quoting 1315. GatorWX:
Only 20% for the next five days too, seems the NHC hasn't become any more confident. It actually looks very similar to how id did about 36 hours ago.

Give it time
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12710

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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