Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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In other news, all the GFS runs that called for hurricane development of 96L over the CV islands are officially massive busts, lol.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7643
Its officially Sept and we are still at
6-bust-bust WT_

Does the wave entering the carb really have a chance? NHC say no,
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Quoting 1495. aislinnpaps:
Post 1488

Morning Mic, I've missed your pictures in the mornings since school started back up. Even the smiling faces of my little kids there aren't quite the same as Dexter in the morning. *G*


I had a real streak going up until yesterday. Been posting at exactly 9am for what? a couple months anyway. I was gonna make up for it by posting pics of all of us over at the ocean yesterday (Dex played ball, Dex swam, Dex dug holes), but unfortunately the camera failed to make the trip. Technologically speaking, yesterday was a disaster (this morning started out rough as well, when my pics refused to be sent), but fun-wise, it was a great success!
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Hey guys I think that 97L is stretched out because it want to have one foot in the Caribbean before the rest of it gets in you know
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11251
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With the low level structure being as large as it is, I wonder how big 97L could get if it became a storm.
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1513. WxLogic
97L entering into a region with better moisture profile than before:



Indeed... there's some relatively drier air to its south but not enough to inhibit convection as long as outflow boundaries don't develop from any TSTM that develops in the southern quadrant.

Also noticed that a Kelvin Wave just passed through this region yesterday and based on my observations, it takes 24HR to 48HRs for convective activity to increase on a tropical system after its departure.

I could be wrong with that conclusion, but if my observations are correct, I would expect with a fairly high degree of certainty that 97L will begin increasing its TSTM activity within the next 24hr. We shall see.
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Quoting 1505. K8eCane:


if you are like my 13 year old you can easily eat again

If I was 13 again I could eat up to about 3-4 times the amount in that image but I've grown and I'm too old to do that again and to skinny as well
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11251
Quoting 1500. washingtonian115:


For us visual people.


I just...well..... that just aint right.....all I got is chex with no milk, Had a 1/2 gallon last night, then the kids cane home...........
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1510. IKE

55m
Energy strung out with system moving into islands...West winds at Barbados indicate this has a low level circulation
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Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1789
Quoting 1503. aislinnpaps:


No imported organic shrimp from Ecuador, they're fresh from the Gulf, compliments of the man that has his truck on the side of the road. He's there rain or shine during the season.
Thats cool! Gotta watch out for those Chinese pond raised shrimp full of hormones and antibiotics. LOL
That's all they sell at Publix.
97 L still strtched out from WSW to ENE but looking more consolidated than yesterday!
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1507. GatorWX
Click to loop.

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Quoting 1494. HurricaneAndre:
thanks.

Your welcome.

--
Anyways, TS Yutu is not being analyzed as a tropical storm at all by JTWC; not even an AOI. Maybe it's because it is sheared. Will they keep on analyzing this as just a tropical disturbance when it crosses into the Central Pacific?

By the way, Yutu will be the fourth tropical cyclone(the first to cross from the EHem) to cross the International Date Line.
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1505. K8eCane
Quoting 1504. wunderkidcayman:

Wow I just ate now that's making me hungry


if you are like my 13 year old you can easily eat again
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Quoting 1500. washingtonian115:


For us visual people.

Wow I just ate now that's making me hungry
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11251
Quoting 1498. Abacosurf:
mmm. low fat shrimp. Are they organic?


No imported organic shrimp from Ecuador, they're fresh from the Gulf, compliments of the man that has his truck on the side of the road. He's there rain or shine during the season.
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Hey guys if SHIPS is correct and we do get a 82kts hurricane ESE of Grand Cayman and if this were to make it into the GOM just imagine what this thing could become
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11251
1501. GatorWX
Seems to be evolving rather fast, idk.

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Quoting 1492. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's another 72 degree morning here with nary a drop of rain in sight. But I am ever optimistic that eventually there will be rain for my garden.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana fritters, fluffy scrambled eggs, biscuits with sausage gravy, Low Fat Shrimp and Swiss Omelet made with egg whites, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. And as a special treat, I put a pot of creole coffee next to Largo's. Enjoy!


For us visual people.
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NAVGEM actually develops the system to the SE of 97L

Link
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Quoting 1492. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's another 72 degree morning here with nary a drop of rain in sight. But I am ever optimistic that eventually there will be rain for my garden.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana fritters, fluffy scrambled eggs, biscuits with sausage gravy, Low Fat Shrimp and Swiss Omelet made with egg whites, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. And as a special treat, I put a pot of creole coffee next to Largo's. Enjoy!
mmm. low fat shrimp. Are they organic? :)
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Kman-Large rain moving in from the south, Umbrella?
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Good Morning Everyone, SFLW I do not like the looks of that map!
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Post 1488

Morning Mic, I've missed your pictures in the mornings since school started back up. Even the smiling faces of my little kids there aren't quite the same as Dexter in the morning. *G*
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Quoting 1489. Bobbyweather:

Link
thanks.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2584
Quoting 1487. wunderkidcayman:

Barbados radar has not been working since the 27th of last month


Oops
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Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's another 72 degree morning here with nary a drop of rain in sight. But I am ever optimistic that eventually there will be rain for my garden.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana fritters, fluffy scrambled eggs, biscuits with sausage gravy, Low Fat Shrimp and Swiss Omelet made with egg whites, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, French Toast with Bourbon Peach Sauce, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. And as a special treat, I put a pot of creole coffee next to Largo's. Enjoy!
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1491. IKE

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Look at the time stamp on the radar
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11251
Quoting 1484. HurricaneAndre:
Can someone give me a link to the SHIPS forecast for 97L.

Link
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Good Morning!
7:20 am (11:20 GMT)



Dexter hitches another ride from the Johnson's.

Hurricane Season?



Kisses!

7:15 am


Sorry I missed my post yesterday, and I'm late today!
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Quoting 1485. rudyinpompano:
Barbados radar

Link

Barbados radar has not been working since the 27th of last month
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11251
Quoting 1452. kmanislander:


Take another sip of coffee :-)


Kman I just finish my 9 cup and making my 10th now

Quoting 1453. clwstmchasr:


No need to worry, not going to happen.


That's what you say this could happen and has a very good chance of doing just that

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11251
Barbados radar

Link
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Can someone give me a link to the SHIPS forecast for 97L.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2584
Link
Barbados visual.
Soub bowls. ( a surf break) definitely west winds.
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CMC, NAVGEM, UKMET, all continue to develop 97L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23654
One of the GFS ENSEMBLE
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Mornin all.
97L looks pretty good this AM but still needs a dominant circulation. Didn't really want a hurricane in the Caribbean, but I think everyone's head'll explode if we don't get one out of this.
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LLC is just west of where some strong SW to NE inflow is occurring This will help strengthen and tighten the LLC and create a more symmetric system from its linear appearance. What for the area between 57W-59W along 15N for a MLC to form with all the inflow and intense convection developing and move west. The center at the lower levels is moving slower which will help it stack up with a potential MLC for cyclogenesis occur Barbados already reporting west winds (see comment #1337).

Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2584
Quoting 1469. Relix:
I don't think it'll make it before 63W. It will be a heavy rain event for PR though its staying south. More rain. Yay.


PR may avoid the most bad weather but we will get rain in bands that may cause some flooding as the northern fringe moves by.
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Man, we need some half decent weather stations down in the islands. most report sporadically or are completely wrong/need to be calibrated...
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Getting favorable.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 19 Comments: 2584
1474. GatorWX
BAM deep, just the name of that model is intimidating lol.
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Quoting 1465. hydrus:
Hispaniola is the cyclone shredder. That land mass has probably saved the U.S from many hurricane strikes at a great cost to the folks there.
I often think that also,without Cuba and Hispaniola The U.S. would be hammered on a regular basis!
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1472. GatorWX
I don't like the blue one. lol, I didn't even look at which model it was, but I don't like it!

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1471. GatorWX
Quoting 1468. watchingnva:


something definitely occurring north to northwest of Barbados...


mrut oh! See what happens today, it's certainly still feeling the benies of dmax now. It would appear, even since I first looked at around 0600 that it's on the up and up. Like kman said and I couldn't agree more, it needs to center all that energy into the core. Pretty stretched! New maps may indicate it already is however.
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Quoting 1455. Grothar:


they moved more west
That blue terminates in my backyard.!! should be an interesting week coming up.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
1469. Relix
I don't think it'll make it before 63W. It will be a heavy rain event for PR though its staying south. More rain. Yay.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2676

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.