Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 64. Tazmanian:
the gfs has been a outliner all season
Funny because in June and July for some the gfs was the best picking up little tc and everything else was bad but now the gfs doesn't develop anything so is bad and unreliable. This blog is funny sometimes :D
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Quoting 51. HuracanTaino:
Beyond Guadalupe , shear diminish considerably ....


initialized:



I see what you're saying.
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Quoting 59. IKE:

CMC is just not reliable.



if the CMC was we would have 25 too 35 name storms right now lol
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THAN RECENT DAYS...

.UPDATE...THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING
HAS OCCURRED IN THE LOWEST 10K FT. SO THE DRY LAYER OF THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DIMINISHED. GIVEN THIS MOISTENING, THE
EXPECTATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS FOR A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FL. HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AFTER 1 PM ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH A TRANSITION OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING NUMEROUS THERE. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE SO HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS
TREND.

LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO
HIGH, AND WITH NO PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER, WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY
ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACTS. /GREGORIA

&&
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Quoting 58. hurricanes2018:
...not good at all



very bad!! 00UTC 06.09.2013 17.4N 75.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13410
the gfs has been a outliner all season
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36892
62. IKE
141 hour 12Z GFS.....heading toward the record of no hurricane....


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Why is the Gulf so dry? and is it going to stay like that for long?
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2315
Quoting 55. CybrTeddy:


Because the UKMET is showing something - it's our last hope of an accurate model this year.


pretty sad, but when the most conservative model shows development, I guess that is something lol
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59. IKE

Quoting SuperStorm093:
game off for that wave, CMC was like 30 MB higher this run lol and OTS.
CMC is just not reliable.
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...not good at all
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13410
Hey folks,

Roasty Toasty here in Central OK, temps in the 100's later today, but looks to be the last gasp of summer as the cool down is to commence late Sunday, and bring us back to the lower 90's by Monday.
The tropics look to be - well, less than exciting - for yet another week or so - as far as having anything to track.

Hope that you and yours are doing well. Have a fantastic Labor Day weekend! Will catch up with you on Tuesday!

Ciao.
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Quoting 54. Gearsts:
Because we can and is free.


lol well there is that, but I take every single model with a huge grain of salt now, because they have mostly been wrong all year

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Quoting 49. Hurricanes101:
A question for all you model watchers. why are we still watching them?

They have been horrible this year, especially the GFS and CMC. They have forecasted so many storms that didn't happen, why should we take them into account even when they do not show something?


Because the UKMET is showing something - it's our last hope of an accurate model this year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23571
Quoting 49. Hurricanes101:
A question for all you model watchers. why are we still watching them?

They have been horrible this year, especially the GFS and CMC. They have forecasted so many storms that didn't happen, why should we take them into account even when they do not show something?
Because we can and is free.
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1126 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-311900-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1126 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

.NOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE...
WESTERN VOLUSIA...AND OTHER AREAS WEST OF I-4 LATE THIS MORNING AS
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TRANSLATES
EASTWARDS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INTO
THE AREA.

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE DELAYED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW...
BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AS THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BREEZE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 50 MPH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36892
TUTT backs away as the AOI moves towards the Caribbean, but it looks like it keeps it close enough to it to keep it in check. Link

You guys see it?

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
Quoting GatorWX:
...unless of course it goes into the central Caribbean. Looks like it may be a close call.

Beyond Guadalupe , shear diminish considerably ....
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 831
Quoting 14. ncstorm:
repost..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 15.9N 72.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2013 16.7N 73.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2013 17.4N 75.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 310438





very bad!! 00UTC 06.09.2013 17.4N 75.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 8 Comments: 13410
A question for all you model watchers. why are we still watching them?

They have been horrible this year, especially the GFS and CMC. They have forecasted so many storms that didn't happen, why should we take them into account even when they do not show something?
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Quoting 42. HuracanTaino:
The University of Wisconsin CIM has it as an Invest in their maps, I sign, why is that?

I have had the same question, anyone with an answer,please.
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Thanks for the update,
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the gfs is a outliner
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game off for that wave, CMC was like 30 MB higher this run lol and OTS.
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FEMA chief Craig Fugate: Florida in denial about hurricane threats
(Click link for video)

TALLAHASSEE, Florida (AP) - The emergency management chief for the United States is warning that Floridians are in "denial" about the threat posed by hurricanes.

Craig Fugate is the administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. He said many Floridians wrongly believe they have survived the full force of hurricanes.

Fugate was Florida's emergency chief during the 2004 and 2005 storms. He was visiting his old offices Wednesday.

Fugate said there "tends to be a bit of arrogance" among Floridians about storms. He said in reality that hurricane force winds and storm surge were only experienced in small compact areas such as the beach areas near Pensacola during Hurricane Ivan.

Fugate said that's why Floridians should take evacuation orders seriously. He said that too many people wrongly assume that a Category 1 storm isn't serious.
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2315
43. IKE
12Z GFS does show action in the BOC. Plenty of rain.
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Quoting seer2012:


Surprise!!! Me thinks somethin' 'bout to happen here!!
The University of Wisconsin CIM has it as an Invest on their maps, "I", why is that?
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 831
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36892
just to note..the 12z GFS does have a closed 1012mb low

24 hours


but kills it at 30 hours
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Surprise!!! Me thinks somethin' 'bout to happen here!!
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...unless of course it goes into the central Caribbean. Looks like it may be a close call.

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Thanks Dr. Masters I'm noticing a trend towards more flooding events tied into Tropical Systems lately and it is unfortunate where those events set up over some of the more poverty stricken nations in the world and they may only continue to increase over time. :(...Good afternoon everyone. I see some are watching the Tropical Wave approaching 55 West and it appears a Low Pressure has developed along that wave axis.



Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 11 Comments: 7473
36. IKE
105 hours 12Z GFS.....


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Still an uphill battle.
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-6 hrs

-3 hrs

present
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33. IKE
Sorry for those that have died from 96L.
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Quoting 27. GatorWX:
kman,



Yeah, I was looking at the -3hr shear map, so yeah, I see what you're saying.


Still not sure what you were referencing on the 850mb or surface winds maps.
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12z GFS at 93 hours..nothing

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Dying out, was quite interesting 2-3 hours ago.

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Thank you, Dr. Masters, for looking into the topic of flooding in poor Africa due to the wave train.
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CMC aint looking so crazy now eh?
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kman,



Yeah, I was looking at the -3hr shear map, so yeah, I see what you're saying.
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This shows four potential cyclones.

Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
Only 5 to 20 kts of shear on the sw side of the central wave.
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Thanks Dr.

55 Dead? That's a nasty storm, condolences to the families.
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That's why those who talk about boring season and being a bust need to look what a weak storm like Fernand and invest 96l have done.70 people have died. May they RIP
Member Since: June 2, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
Thanks Doc !
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Thanks Doc.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
Don't worry guys, the wave is going to the Caymans surely.

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The central wave has exploded !
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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