Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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xD
Time: 16:19:30Z
Coordinates: 15.35N 52.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 163.2 mb (~ 4.82 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 13,729 meters (~ 45,043 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 662 meters (~ 2,172 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 271° at 4 knots (From the W at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: -66.5°C* (~ -87.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanks for the link rt.

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Quoting 114. WoodyFL:
wow these models sure want to bring 96 back south

Every last one.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
Quoting 113. SLU:
Invest 97L

ITS STARTING to look better
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
Quoting 113. SLU:
Invest 97L

Can you link me to that loop?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow these models sure want to bring 96 back south

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
113. SLU
Invest 97L

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope the folks in Mali and elsewhere in Africa can get back up on their feet after this, I feel really sorry for them. Chances of 96L developing have gone down lately (40% from 50%), but it still could become Gabrielle before it dissipates. The AOI nearing the Lessers could become something in the western Caribbean, but most of the reliable models aren't expecting much out of it even by then.
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Quoting 107. CybrTeddy:


Interesting, NHC must want to see what the hurricane models think of it.



yep
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
The plain in google earth has the center at 15.4n?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 92. Hurricanes101:


Um no, the GFS has been developing TS and hurricanes all month long and have been wrong in most cases. In fact, it barely snuffed out the 2 that did develop.

That is why it is unreliable, because it has flat out sucked this year
And what i said still stands lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 99. hurricanes2018:
we have 97L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308311639
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013083112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013
AL, 97, 2013083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 540W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
I AM HAPPY WE HAVE SOMETHING TO WATCH
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
Quoting 93. Tazmanian:
we have 97L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308311639
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013083112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013
AL, 97, 2013083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 540W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Interesting, NHC must want to see what the hurricane models think of it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Quoting 49. Hurricanes101:
A question for all you model watchers. why are we still watching them?

They have been horrible this year, especially the GFS and CMC. They have forecasted so many storms that didn't happen, why should we take them into account even when they do not show something?
Because they're the best aid we have in forecasting tropical cyclones. Even though they may be hit or miss, how often does a hurricane develop when there's absolutely no model support for it? An extremely rare occasion I'd say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


I see what you're saying.
Quoting 72. GatorWX:
Obama is about to speak in The Rose Garden, asked media to be there in 25 mins, lol. UN and Russian Diplomats have already been removed from Syria, ugghhhhhh.

Anyway, in case you're interested, tune in.

Back to weather.


4.5 years and he finally is going to do something presidential ...... It's about time, but he doesn't know what he is doing and is gonna put us in WWIII. SMH
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Quoting 94. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You're still talking winds over a 130 mph and most likely on the higher end of the EF-3 scale, so that would be the equivalent to a major hurricane which still would have pretty much flattened anything in its path if it hit a populated area which this one didn't, but still took lives, so that becomes irrelevant anyways. The El Reno Tornado is the widest tornado ever recorded in history and had a base width of 2.6 miles.


We had radar accurately measure winds of 296 mph. The only thing I've read so far about it being dismissed is that the EF scale is based solely on damage. That is a flawed system.

If that's the case, then they have to reconsider the width as well, as that was determined by radar.

It's not irrelevant. It's about consistency in a scientific field.
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What in the world NHC tagged it 97L already wow well we know what this mean TWO% is going to possibly rise at 2
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12157
Quoting 96. hurricanes2018:
why is the GFS got invest 96L MOVING MOVE TO THE WEST AND MOVING TO SW AT THE END!
\

dam thats funny, watch it verify lol the gfs has also moved south on it. Funny I said in my post right before theese models came out "who knows about 96l" I guess he doesnt either.
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101. Kumo
Quoting 72. GatorWX:
Obama is about to speak in The Rose Garden, asked media to be there in 25 mins, lol. UN and Russian Diplomats have already been removed from Syria, ugghhhhhh.

Anyway, in case you're interested, tune in.

Back to weather.


I hope he decides to back off of the war propaganda, we got no business interfering with their civil war.

On topic: I am beginning to think the season down casters were right and that I will be eating crow soon. I am not ready to throw in the towel yet though, I'll give it to the 15th for activity to pick up.
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.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
we have 97L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308311639
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013083112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013
AL, 97, 2013083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 540W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
Quoting 97. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey I saw it first. :P



you saw nothing 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting 93. Tazmanian:
we have 97L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308311639
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013083112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013
AL, 97, 2013083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 540W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Hey I saw it first. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
why is the GFS got invest 96L MOVING MOVE TO THE WEST AND MOVING TO SW AT THE END!
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 27 Comments: 53562
Quoting 93. Tazmanian:
we have 97L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308311639
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013083112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013
AL, 97, 2013083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 540W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Taz you the man!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 82. tornadodude:
In case y'all missed it, the record 2.6 mile wide El Reno tornado has been downgraded from EF-5 to EF-3.

Originally, the tornado was rated an EF-3, but then upgraded to EF-5 based on Rax-Pol measured winds near 300mph. Upon submission of the OU Rax-Pol data, they have decided to dismiss those measurements and downgrade the tornado back to EF-3.

The now EF-3 rating of the El Reno tornado does not bother me. What bothers me is rating it EF-3 initially, upgrading it to EF-5 based on the RAXPOL measured winds near 300mph, then now downgrading it to EF-3 by dismissing those measurements.

Honestly, a much higher number of tornadoes than we realize likely contain winds ~300mph.
You're still talking winds over a 130 mph and most likely on the higher end of the EF-3 scale, so that would be the equivalent to a major hurricane which still would have pretty much flattened anything in its path if it hit a populated area which this one didn't, but still took lives, so that becomes irrelevant anyways. The El Reno Tornado is the widest tornado ever recorded in history and had a base width of 2.6 miles.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
we have 97L


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201308311639
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2013, DB, O, 2013083112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972013
AL, 97, 2013083112, , BEST, 0, 150N, 540W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting 69. Gearsts:
Funny because in June and July for some the gfs was the best picking up little tc and everything else was bad but now the gfs doesn't develop anything so is bad and unreliable. This blog is funny sometimes :D


Um no, the GFS has been developing TS and hurricanes all month long and have been wrong in most cases. In fact, it barely snuffed out the 2 that did develop.

That is why it is unreliable, because it has flat out sucked this year
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The Swamp is livin up to its name here on the first saturday in college football. VERY muggy here.
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I cant find a closeup of the one by the islands. Does anyone have one?
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Quoting 87. K8eCane:
I sure miss Grothars take on it.
Pray! enough said.
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Quoting 86. opal92nwf:
Out for now. For me at least right now, No tropical depressions or above in the Atlantic = no need to be on the blog for hours on end.



well we can, and its virtually free lol
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I sure miss Grothars take on it.
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Out for now. For me at least right now, No tropical depressions or above in the Atlantic = no need to be on the blog for hours on end.
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Quoting 76. ncstorm:


not yet..


Still don't think the casualties of the precursor disturbance are counted into seasonal death totals.
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man that record might be broken this year, who knows about 96l to be honest, sad about the deaths though. AS for the AOI in C.atl I woudnt think much of it till sunday/ monday once is the CARB.
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Might help to understand this imagery more. Darker oranges the more drier the airmass, also low level clouds from 15 North up depicts a stable airmass which explains the lack of any convection there. Probably due in part to the cooler sst there as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In case y'all missed it, the record 2.6 mile wide El Reno tornado has been downgraded from EF-5 to EF-3.

Originally, the tornado was rated an EF-3, but then upgraded to EF-5 based on Rax-Pol measured winds near 300mph. Upon submission of the OU Rax-Pol data, they have decided to dismiss those measurements and downgrade the tornado back to EF-3.

The now EF-3 rating of the El Reno tornado does not bother me. What bothers me is rating it EF-3 initially, upgrading it to EF-5 based on the RAXPOL measured winds near 300mph, then now downgrading it to EF-3 by dismissing those measurements.

Honestly, a much higher number of tornadoes than we realize likely contain winds ~300mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 64. Tazmanian:
the gfs has been a outliner all season


The models have been usually unreliable this season. Earlier runs of the GFS showed it struggling in the CATL due to the lack of instability but developed it into a Tropical Storm in the Eastern/Central Caribbean. This is a good time to see what the other less used models have to say.
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Quoting 55. CybrTeddy:


Because the UKMET is showing something - it's our last hope of an accurate model this year.

Hmmm, as I recall Dr M explaining.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3435
Quoting 72. GatorWX:
Obama is about to speak in The Rose Garden, asked media to be there in 25 mins, lol. UN and Russian Diplomats have already been removed from Syria, ugghhhhhh.

Anyway, in case you're interested, tune in.

Back to weather.

Another catastrophic storm about to happen. CAT 5 to the n-th degree.
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78. IKE
168 hours....Sept. 7th....


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77. IKE

Quoting Gearsts:
Funny because in June and July for some the gfs was the best picking up little tc and everything else was bad but now the gfs doesn't develop anything so is bad and unreliable. This blog is funny sometimes :D
Gave you a +
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Quoting 74. CybrTeddy:


96L isn't a tropical cyclone, doesn't count into seasonal totals.


not yet..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks, Dr M the shear map showing upper ridging starting slip over the disturbance. Confirming what I mentioned on the previous blog if a good burst of convection develops then the South America upper ridge will start to billow atop giving it a decent upper air bubble between the TUTT in the Eastern Caribbean. By Sunday night, conditions may look a little more propitious for development.
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Quoting 70. ncstorm:
to put in perspective.

2012 Atlantic Hurricane season tied for having the third-most named storms on record
Total fatalities 200 direct

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season will probably come in below average but yet:
Preliminary numbers:
Total fatalities 70 total


96L isn't a tropical cyclone, doesn't count into seasonal totals.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
73. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
Funny because in June and July for some the gfs was the best picking up little tc and everything else was bad but now the gfs doesn't develop anything so is bad and unreliable. This blog is funny sometimes :D

lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
Obama is about to speak in The Rose Garden, asked media to be there in 25 mins, lol. UN and Russian Diplomats have already been removed from Syria, ugghhhhhh.

Anyway, in case you're interested, tune in.

Back to weather.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3435
nuff' said

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
to put in perspective.

2012 Atlantic Hurricane season tied for having the third-most named storms on record
Total fatalities 200 direct

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season will probably come in below average but yet:
Preliminary numbers:
Total fatalities 70 total
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 64. Tazmanian:
the gfs has been a outliner all season
Funny because in June and July for some the gfs was the best picking up little tc and everything else was bad but now the gfs doesn't develop anything so is bad and unreliable. This blog is funny sometimes :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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