Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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219. MahFL
Quoting 216. chrisdscane:
Still heavily sheard with a week LLC running east of convection. give it a few days, this may imfact FL in a week or so, but who knows atleast something to watch.


You mean running west of the convection ?
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Quoting 196. Gearsts:
Is that a wave infront of our invest?
Upper Level Low providing sw shear over antilles
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 311726
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER WATER NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS
DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED
TODAY BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
Still heavily sheard with a week LLC running east of convection. give it a few days, this may imfact FL in a week or so, but who knows atleast something to watch.
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Just to note but the the 12z CMC run shows the influence of a little TC helping to steer 97L away from the conus after crossing the islands as if they were going to do a fujiwhara but dont..the little storm heads east while 97L sits there deciding if to head north or turn back west..

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Quoting 209. hydrus:
Dont go eating roasted falcons Pat..Almost every single species is protected....but may be tastier than crow.:)


Falcon Roast invest
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97L/INV/XX/XX
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wkc may have a Cane coming afterall...
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 311726
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED
TODAY BUT REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR
5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting 205. CybrTeddy:
Where's Grothar? I think this earns a BlobCon rating.




I do it for him this will make it come out of hiding



I give 97L BlobCon rateing a 2
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Quoting 197. Patrap:
8 days till the Falcon Roast in the Dome.

So AL97 wont come into the GOM.


You heard dat 97L...


Dont go eating roasted falcons Pat..Almost every single species is protected....but may be tastier than crow.:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
Quoting 205. CybrTeddy:
Where's Grothar? I think this earns a BlobCon rating.




He retired for a spell, check his entry.

The Fla Bloggers were driving him nutz.
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Quoting 197. Patrap:
8 days till the Falcon Roast in the Dome.

So AL97 wont come into the GOM.


You heard dat 97L...





I sure 97L can here but I think 97L will do what it wants too do
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Where's Grothar? I think this earns a BlobCon rating.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
anyone notice the 12z GFS run? note it has a south CV storm. so does the 12z CMC but earlier. watch for that. despite the season being a bust, doesnt mean we cant get sleeper storms
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203. MahFL
Oh oh 97L.....do I hear Jaws music ?
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Quoting 182. Hurricanes101:




I will remove this if it is causing issue, but it looks to me like the CMC initialized 97L fine
It did. My bad. I was caught off guard by the
W-SW forecast track...starts a fresh pot...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
97L's floater is now up



KMAN missing out now :)
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 166. hurricanes2018:

Wow
Cuba Florida
Lol
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
Quoting 191. Stormchaser2007:
97L actually has a shot to develop.

The enviorment that the Global Hawk is finding, is actually somewhat favorable.

There was also an 8 knot west wind, so the circulation is closed.


Very interesting those Global Hawk missions could really pinpoint what could happen and provide a more confident track.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting redwagon:


Kman working 97L all morning, providing every evidence it should be invested, but predicts it won't till tonight or tomorrow, leaves for lunch, BOOM! invest.
Wisconsin University had it as invest since 11:00 am EST....
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8 days till the Falcon Roast in the Dome.

So AL97 wont come into the GOM.


You heard dat 97L...


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Quoting 192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Is that a wave infront of our invest?
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Looks like an anticyclone over 97L doesn't it?

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Converging inflows looking more symmetrical and increasing.

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if anyone cares but the CMC shows a CV hurricane taking a southerly path.
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97L actually has a shot to develop.

The enviorment that the Global Hawk is finding, is actually somewhat favorable.

There was also an 8 knot west wind, so the circulation is closed.
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This pretty much sums up the CMC as a model.



That's the last frame of the 12z run.
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Quoting 167. MAweatherboy1:
Don't get your hopes up on this one. Odds are heavily against it, lots of shear ahead. At least it's something to track though, and if it can survive the next few days then who knows.

12z CMC is running now, we'll see what it does.


Quite the contrary SHIP indicates shear will be under 15kts for awhile meaning an ULAC may try to established itself over the center. Its that time of year when things could change very quickly.

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972013 08/31/13 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 50 56 62 66 70 71
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 36 42 50 56 62 66 70 60
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 34 38 45 54 66 76 86 73
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 11 13 11 4 6 0 5 5 4 8 6 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 256 257 241 250 261 200 241 188 304 247 296 214 262
SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 145 145 148 149 151 153 153 154 154 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 140 139 142 143 145 147 149 150 148 147
200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 11
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
188. MahFL
Convection is spreading SW on the central wave, showing less shear at that spot.
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Quoting 118. WoodyFL:
thanks for the link rt.


Just love that convection!!
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
Quoting 161. unknowncomic:
I would like to see Dr Masters clarify what the NAM is useful for.


The NAM does get it right every once in a while. All I know is if a system does develop in the Caribbean, the NAM was the first model I saw that showed it.
Like I mentioned, for days the NAM has been showing a developing low moving through the Caribbean.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7333
Quoting hurricanes2018:
I AM HAPPY WE HAVE SOMETHING TO WATCH
Me too, and pretty close to me, (Puerto Rico)...let see what happens...
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Quoting 178. CybrTeddy:


Maybe, but maybe not enough to kill it.

May have to watch this one.
notice how CMC hooks it north? another system east of it develops. thats why. if the system doesnt develop, could mean farther west possibly the gulf
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
Quoting 159. hydrus:
The path from the CMC is a potentially dangerous one for Florida. Far to early to in the game to consider. The new CMC has initialized 97L way to the south.




I will remove this if it is causing issue, but it looks to me like the CMC initialized 97L fine
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Quoting 179. Gearsts:
Cat 5 with 185mph winds and a central pressure of 895mb
lol.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
Quoting 121. SLU:


Invest 97L


Air starting to pile up between 50 and 55,below 15. Keep your eye on this area. The results could adjust centers and forecast tracks. Or not.
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Quoting 177. HurricaneAndre:
okay,how strong do you think it will be.I think a 75kt hurricane.
Cat 5 with 185mph winds and a central pressure of 895mb
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Quoting 165. hurricane23:
Plenty of land interaction with 97L.. Models here


Maybe, but maybe not enough to kill it.

May have to watch this one.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
Quoting 174. Gearsts:
The area of low shear is moving west with our invest.
okay,how strong do you think it will be.I think a 75kt hurricane.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
Quoting 162. JRRP:

so we have 97L... not bad
It just might be...Bad.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414
97L's floater should be up soon. Convective activity moving over the circulation and increasing as the LLC has a good surface reflection (a barely closed circulation TBH).



Surface analysis implies a closed circulation.

Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 170. HurricaneAndre:

May run into shear a little bit,then more conducive.
The area of low shear is moving west with our invest.
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Quoting 163. Relix:
There we go. Post 50W miracle, almost always works. So we have an Erika/Irene/Jeanne type of development here. Should be fun.
Even though this year is not El Nino, Erika might not be a bad analog.
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Quoting 143. CybrTeddy:


lol


Kman working 97L all morning, providing every evidence it should be invested, but predicts it won't till tonight or tomorrow, leaves for lunch, BOOM! invest.
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May run into shear a little bit,then more conducive.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 3212
96 hours.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21414

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.