Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1569. GatorWX
Quoting 1560. hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


Also, I tried pointing that out earlier, but I didn't get many takers.
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Quoting 1554. CybrTeddy:
I'd watch out for this wave behind 97L as well, UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members develop it.


... and NAVGEM!
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1567. hydrus
Quoting 1553. PensacolaDoug:


Thanx for the thought. I would've liked that. I didn't want to advertise an empty home.
Greetings Doug. Get the genny primed and the shutters out. 97L developed a cloud and is movin west.omhg...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Quoting 1554. CybrTeddy:
I'd watch out for this wave behind 97L as well, UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members develop it.
wouldn`t this one going to crash into SA?
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1565. GatorWX
Quoting 1560. hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


I don't think this things as close to glory as some of us want to believe. It has a while to go imo.
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Quoting 1559. wpb:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311545
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 31 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

no woories

Old recon plan
New one should be out soon and it should have recon flight when it does
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843

West Africa satellite image
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Link
Near Caymans and Western Cuba on Day 7, edit: earlier this morning.
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1560. hydrus
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
1559. wpb
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311545
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 31 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-091

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

no woories
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Quoting 1552. bayoubug:
That's what i thought..That should keep the northern gulf coast clear..Hopefully..Florida needs to pay attention..

Everybody from 65W needs to watch it lol

Quoting 1554. CybrTeddy:
I'd watch out for this wave behind 97L as well, UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members develop it.

Yes most certainly and well it is the time of year to find a spike in tropical activity
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843

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Quoting 1549. 19N81W:


and other 35 seasons I have been through dont count either then. No need to panic by any means at this point its not even a closed low.

Yes no need to panic yet
And yes it is a closed low
It may be elongated some bit it is closed last I checked
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
I'd watch out for this wave behind 97L as well, UKMET, CMC, and some of the GFS ensemble members develop it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Quoting 1544. txjac:


Wow, wish I would have known you were coming this way ...would have drove over to meet you and your wife for a drink or something


Thanx for the thought. I would've liked that. I didn't want to advertise an empty home.
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Quoting 1548. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah I think so but it's later in the week
That's what i thought..That should keep the northern gulf coast clear..Hopefully..Florida needs to pay attention..
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HERE IS P28L
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 22335

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1549. 19N81W
Quoting 1546. wunderkidcayman:

Never follow what the season has done once you enter September this mate is a whole other ball game



and other 35 seasons I have been through dont count either then. No need to panic by any means at this point its not even a closed low.
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Quoting 1545. bayoubug:
Good morning..Are there any cold fronts coming down with in the next week..

Yeah I think so but it's later in the week
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Huh? United Surface Analysis analyzes Yutu as an extratropical cyclone. LOL That's why the JTWC didn't designate it as a TS.
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Quoting 1541. 19N81W:


relax guys based on this season I am sure it will be fine.

Never follow what the season has done once you enter September this mate is a whole other ball game

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
Good morning..Are there any cold fronts coming down with in the next week..
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1544. txjac
Quoting 1533. PensacolaDoug:
G'morning all. Just got back from a week in San Antonio, Tx. Great town to vacation in! Still fairly quiet in the ATL basin. Sept has a way of changing that tho. Only time will tell. I'd just as soon not have 97L develope because it will be an impact system, possibly the GOM. I'd rather watch fish.


Wow, wish I would have known you were coming this way ...would have drove over to meet you and your wife for a drink or something
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1543. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Quoting 1539. HurricaneAndre:
I think 97L will have code orange at the next TWO.

I think so to or at least yellow 30% and maybe orange 40%/50% in 5days
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
1541. 19N81W
Quoting 1527. HurricaneAndre:
Well Caribbean and Gulf coast citizens,batter down the hatches,this could be a big one.


relax guys based on this season I am sure it will be fine.
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Quoting 1513. WxLogic:
97L entering into a region with better moisture profile than before:



Indeed... there's some relatively drier air to its south but not enough to inhibit convection as long as outflow boundaries don't develop from any TSTM that develops in the southern quadrant.

Also noticed that a Kelvin Wave just passed through this region yesterday and based on my observations, it takes 24HR to 48HRs for convective activity to increase on a tropical system after its departure.

I could be wrong with that conclusion, but if my observations are correct, I would expect with a fairly high degree of certainty that 97L will begin increasing its TSTM activity within the next 24hr. We shall see.
watch out for p27L MAYBE A BIG HURRICANE DOWN THE ROAD AND IT SOUTH TO
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 22335
I think 97L will have code orange at the next TWO.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2781
1538. hydrus
Quoting 1534. IKE:
***Alprazolam needed on the blog***
Al who.??!!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2781
Quoting 1532. HurricaneAndre:
This reminds me of Gustav forming.

Lol thinking about it yeah it kinda does and it also reminds me of a few others
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1534. IKE
***Alprazolam needed on the blog***
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G'morning all. Just got back from a week in San Antonio, Tx. Great town to vacation in! Still fairly quiet in the ATL basin. Sept has a way of changing that tho. Only time will tell. I'd just as soon not have 97L develope because it will be an impact system, possibly the GOM. I'd rather watch fish.
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Quoting 1530. wunderkidcayman:


Starting to look a lot like the models of past hurricane that past through here
This reminds me of Gustav forming.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2781
Quoting 1527. HurricaneAndre:
Well Caribbean and Gulf coast citizens,batter down the hatches,this could be a big one.

I here you.

Quoting 1528. RascalNag:


BAMM and LBAR tracks are the most dangerous scenarios in my opinion... would avoid most land in the Caribbean and give it a lot of time in the GOM as well.

Problematic for us here in Cayman

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
Quoting 1525. hydrus:


Starting to look a lot like the models of past hurricane that past through here
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843

Apparently the NHC made a mistake; Gil was a hurricane, but it is written a TS.
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Quoting 1525. hydrus:


BAMM and LBAR tracks are the most dangerous scenarios in my opinion... would avoid most land in the Caribbean and give it a lot of time in the GOM as well.
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Well Caribbean and Gulf coast citizens,batter down the hatches,this could be a big one.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2781
Quoting 1522. hydrus:
Yep..Your ancient..:)

Lol
I ain't that that old

Quoting 1523. RascalNag:


Hopefully that's the case. I think everyone learned with Sandy that big storms = extreme surge.


The Caribbean learn their lesson from Hurricane Ivan Gilbert Wilma and a few others
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
1525. hydrus
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Quoting 1520. hydrus:
If this system reaches the Western Caribbean, it could be a serious problem.

Maybe that's why SHIPS forecast it to be a 82kts hurricane when it get there though it should be high if that's the case because those heat potentials are high enough to support a moderate to high end major hurricane
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
Quoting 1521. wunderkidcayman:


It could get big but normally big invest tend to shed their size once becoming a storm and consolidate


Hopefully that's the case. I think everyone learned with Sandy that big storms = extreme surge.
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1522. hydrus
Quoting 1512. wunderkidcayman:

If I was 13 again I could eat up to about 3-4 times the amount in that image but I've grown and I'm too old to do that again and to skinny as well
Yep..Your ancient..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
Quoting 1513. WxLogic:
97L entering into a region with better moisture profile than before:



Indeed... there's some relatively drier air to its south but not enough to inhibit convection as long as outflow boundaries don't develop from any TSTM that develops in the southern quadrant.

Also noticed that a Kelvin Wave just passed through this region yesterday and based on my observations, it takes 24HR to 48HRs for convective activity to increase on a tropical system after its departure.

I could be wrong with that conclusion, but if my observations are correct, I would expect with a fairly high degree of certainty that 97L will begin increasing its TSTM activity within the next 24hr. We shall see.

Good one but mate you're a little late it's already increasing its TSTM activity

Quoting 1514. RascalNag:
With the low level structure being as large as it is, I wonder how big 97L could get if it became a storm.


It could get big but normally big invest tend to shed their size once becoming a storm and consolidate
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
1520. hydrus
Quoting 1513. WxLogic:
97L entering into a region with better moisture profile than before:



Indeed... there's some relatively drier air to its south but not enough to inhibit convection as long as outflow boundaries don't develop from any TSTM that develops in the southern quadrant.

Also noticed that a Kelvin Wave just passed through this region yesterday and based on my observations, it takes 24HR to 48HRs for convective activity to increase on a tropical system after its departure.

I could be wrong with that conclusion, but if my observations are correct, I would expect with a fairly high degree of certainty that 97L will begin increasing its TSTM activity within the next 24hr. We shall see.
If this system reaches the Western Caribbean, it could be a serious problem.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21054
In other news, all the GFS runs that called for hurricane development of 96L over the CV islands are officially massive busts, lol.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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