Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

Share this Blog
37
+

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 269 - 219

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Quoting 260. hurricanes2018:
HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH THIS HURRICANE MOVN NORTH FROM GEM GO ON DAY FOUR.
as long as it shows it then its still a possibility huh..better to be forewarned than getting caught offguard,my best guess is next week is going to get a bit active with storms..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
beg your pardon kman there were bloggers mentioning the possiblities of 97 before you got off your pillow. more like ours.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4560
Quoting 259. superpete:
Wunderkid>/stormwatcher>:Some decent thunderstorms to our south..heading north

Been watching it. Kind of dark up here now with a few showers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Found this on twitter from a person named "wxmeddler"

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So I see we're still at 6-0-0 and no imminent signs of that changing? ;)

Looks like my prediction of 10-0-0 is still intact. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 259. superpete:
Wunderkid>/stormwatcher>:Some decent thunderstorms to our south..heading north


As I said another evening and night of showers
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11932
Quoting 28. ncstorm:
CMC aint looking so crazy now eh?
Oh please.The CMC looks like that fake dooms day NHC outlook.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 257. GatorWX:
Regarding new conference, nothing for now, after congressional vote apparently.


And the next scheduled time Congress goes back to work is Sep. 9th. Thats when models have before shown a hurricane hitting the NE (even tho it was in fantasyland)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back again.

Well I see that my call for 97L this afternoon or later has materialised. It is looking much better than this morning and 10% from the NHC may need to be upped tonight.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15813
HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH THIS HURRICANE MOVN NORTH FROM GEM GO ON DAY FOUR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wunderkid>/stormwatcher>:Some decent thunderstorms to our south..heading north

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z ECMWF makes 97L a Caribbean rider so far.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24015
Regarding news conference, nothing for now, after congressional vote apparently.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2946
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 251. stormwatcherCI:
The slight wsw movement has also served to move it further away from the destuctive shear to the north.

Lets watch if this WSW movement continues
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11932
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is the uptick in convection mostly the result of the wave behind 97L catching up and interacting?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 243. Hurricanes305:
Inflow has increased quite a bit especially on the southern side. This will help it sustain itself much better when the diurnal minimum comes this evening. Although the NHC is giving it a measly 10% chance of developing it already have a closed surface circulation once the thunderstorms wrap up fully and the MLC forms it will likely develop. Development could come as early as tomorrow night if things goes its way.

The slight wsw movement has also served to move it further away from the destuctive shear to the north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 238. wunderkidcayman:

Well I did say it was going to happen the question was just when it would happen


Don't pat yer back till you see it.

Modesty is a fine trait...lost to many who haven't found it yet.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 244. GatorWX:


sshhhhhhh


GatorWX you sshhhhhhhh before I take that spoon and smack you lol
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11932
must be the highs keeping the storms from getting into the gulf..instead they push the storms northward OFF the coastline...GEM has changed, no more SC/NC strike..it now moves the storm more northeastward...we'll see what happens in a week..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
On another note looks like another evening and night of stormy rainy weather for us tonight

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11932
I still feel like we are in for a horrible September. August activity was REALLY focused in the Eastern/Central pacific with 7 tropical cyclones forming in the month of August. (Gil doesn't count because he didn't form in August, though he did last into it). We should keep our eyes open, because one of these waves is bound to explode into a monster this year. The stability was due to a lack of an MJO, in my opinion. The MJO was mainly focused in the Central/Eastern Pacific: thus the 7 cyclones forming. ;-) Now it's expected to come and stay in the Atlantic for September. Don't be surprised if we end the month of September with 6 or 7 tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic basin. (Which would put us at Lorenzo or Melissa).

Don't let your guard down! Everything is in place!

Meanwhile, TD 11E looks like a tropical cyclone that's trying it's best to intensify. Expect TS Kiko later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 212. Patrap:
wkc may have a Cane coming afterall...


sshhhhhhh

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2946
Inflow has increased quite a bit especially on the southern side. This will help it sustain itself much better when the diurnal minimum comes this evening. Although the NHC is giving it a measly 10% chance of developing it already have a closed surface circulation once the thunderstorms wrap up fully and the MLC forms it will likely develop. Development could come as early as tomorrow night if things goes its way.

Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 240. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Looks good to me.


where is the 1008 mb low?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15264
First model runs on 97L reminding me of Isaac from last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 236. ncstorm:
first frame of the 12z Euro..initalized wrong

Looks good to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
239. VR46L
97L.INVEST, VIS, 31 AUG 2013 1715Z

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
Quoting 212. Patrap:
wkc may have a Cane coming afterall...

Well I did say it was going to happen the question was just when it would happen
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11932
Quoting 208. Patrap:




He retired for a spell, check his entry.

The Fla Bloggers were driving him nutz.
Big game FLA v s MIA next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
first frame of the 12z Euro..initalized wrong with 97L

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15264
Quoting 230. Hurricanes101:
Is it me or does the NHC 2pm TWO not appear to have the information from the Hawk mission?

the mission shows fairly favorable conditions ahead of 97L even before it hits the NW Caribbean, but the NHC completely disagrees


The NHC will start to change their tune as time past its the ULL is still over the Caribbean and untill it starts to back away and our disturbance start to organize they will adjust to accomandate the Hawk missions. NHC is very conservative.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 230. Hurricanes101:
Is it me or does the NHC 2pm TWO not appear to have the information from the Hawk mission?

the mission shows fairly favorable conditions ahead of 97L even before it hits the NW Caribbean, but the NHC completely disagrees
Give them some time to get the information they collected dispatched back to the NHC. Then some of that data will get inputted into the models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 212. Patrap:
wkc may have a Cane coming afterall...


Pat-We'll redirect to NOLA if it passes our front yard
SP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 228. redwagon:


I keep pondering to ask which blogger digusted Gro off the blog.. know it had something to do with Norcross but don't know the details... maybe the person disgusting him is not here and Gro will pop in to issue a blob alert just to humor us. A blob is not a blob without Gro.














It was me in BN s blog and others in this blog. I removed the post and stated that I was sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like 96L for now would not become Gabrielle maybe later on.97L looks poise to develop kman you were the first one with this one good job.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is it me or does the NHC 2pm TWO not appear to have the information from the Hawk mission?

the mission shows fairly favorable conditions ahead of 97L even before it hits the NW Caribbean, but the NHC completely disagrees
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still remain disorganized but it certainly has gotten more convection over the center.



Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
Quoting 210. Tazmanian:




I do it for him this will make it come out of hiding



I give 97L BlobCon rateing a 2


I keep pondering to ask which blogger digusted Gro off the blog.. know it had something to do with Norcross but don't know the details... maybe the person disgusting him is not here and Gro will pop in to issue a blob alert just to humor us. A blob is not a blob without Gro.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 214. Patrap:


Falcon Roast invest
Whitney can have the Falcon and eat it too. They practically own a 3rd of the Earth.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173
Quoting 214. Patrap:


Falcon Roast invest


Only at Saints fan would understand that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
from meteocentre..





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15264

2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic


green ball97L.INVEST


green ball96L.INVEST



East Pacific


green ball11E.ELEVEN




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Call me cynical but I think they created invest 97L so they can run the HWRF with the Tail Doppler Radar data that Gonzo is currently out collecting. JMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 219. MahFL:


You mean running west of the convection ?



yes thank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Huuh, watch this! From Taiwan. Very lucky, this car driver!



Near the Bisha Fishing Port in the city of Keelung in the north of Taipei, torrential rains flooded the streets, creating mudslides. In a video a motorist escaped unscathed when rocks were falling down from the mountains.
The main roads leading to the train station in Keelung Road West are completely flooded.
More than 185 millimeters of rain have created extensive damage throughout the city.


Translated from an Italian weather site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21173
219. MahFL
Quoting 216. chrisdscane:
Still heavily sheard with a week LLC running east of convection. give it a few days, this may imfact FL in a week or so, but who knows atleast something to watch.


You mean running west of the convection ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 269 - 219

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast