Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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318. Kyon5

Member Since: July 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 191
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Still an uphill battle, for now.





As kman pointed out, anticyclone developing directly over it:






Shall improve according to the GFS. We'll see.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
I dont see what all the fuss is about. The main circulation doesent appear to have any increase in convective bursts. Its all an interaction between the wave behind it piling up air around 97 outer circulation.

Now if this interaction continues it could force 97 off towards the WNW and a new circulation to form within the wave axis behind 97 that would possibly continue on a more Westerly path.
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314. JRRP
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UKMET Office

WTNT80 EGRR 311800



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.08.2013


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T 108 : 14.2N 61.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 05.09.2013 14.2N 61.8W WEAK

12UTC 05.09.2013 15.0N 64.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2013 15.6N 66.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2013 16.5N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY




Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Quoting 300. K8eCane:
looking at it with my naked eye it dont look all that impressive
got to run south of the Antilles to fire up around or after 69 w
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Quoting 302. K8eCane:



starting to agree with kman that it wont do anything til western carribean, if then

You mean me I said that that true development wasn't gonna be till the W Carib
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
For once - please say that the system is going in a another direction other than to you.
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ECMWF trucks 97L right into central America but does develop a low pressure area. Trending in the right direction.
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Quoting 305. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Those are the ones you have to watch out for.


Come Sept, I watch all vorts in the GOM/Carb alley/chute lane
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from 00Z last evening, Pouch 25

SYNOPSIS 2013083100

P25L
15N, 50W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Slight change of ECMWF. While ECMWF attempts to develop the NE portion of the pouch after a couple days, the center now no longer shifts that that portion. Rather, the southwestern portion persists while the northeastern flare-up now weakens as quickly as it appears. P25L remains weak the entire five days.

GFS: Consistent with previous GFS forecasts. Simple story of gradual dissipation. No longer a pouch with a CL-trough intersection after 60 hours.

UKMET: Continues to intensify P25L. UKMET also develops a strong ITCZ pouch to the east, while ECMWF and GFS have only a weak OW max.

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:



ECMWF -5.1 v700 120h
GFS -5.9 v700 108h
UKMET -4.8 v700 120h
NAVGEM ---- ---- ---h
HWGEN ---- ---- ---h
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Quoting 290. Patrap:
The NHC is not calling for development of AL97 until its well into the Caribbean.

Those are the ones you have to watch out for.
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Quoting 297. Thrawst:
Hi guys! Whats going on with our Central ATL wave? Looks like its trying to pull a fast one... but slowly... lol


Oh that? We call it 97L now. Has a shot at development.
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Quoting 300. K8eCane:
looking at it with my naked eye it dont look all that impressive



starting to agree with kman that it wont do anything til western carribean, if then
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I AM starting to see a few storms at the same time down the road on some of the modeles now.
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looking at it with my naked eye it dont look all that impressive
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You mean this one

Duh
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting 292. GatorWX:
Pat,



That map public?


Everything is Public, ya jus gotta bookmark it.

Department of Meteorology
Montgomery Research Group
NPS Admissions Academics Research Technology Library Administration About NPS Department of Meteorology
NPS Logo


Also, you can quote any Image and get the HTML from the quote.

That's a lil inside info on how I work the blog.
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Hi guys! Whats going on with our Central ATL wave? Looks like its trying to pull a fast one... but slowly... lol
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296. ryang
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Quoting 284. Patrap:




WATCH FOR P29L
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LOL, usernam/pw, guess not.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
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Pat,



That map public?
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291. MahFL
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The NHC is not calling for development of AL97 until its well into the Caribbean.

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Quoting 285. Relix:
No way in heck 97L develops before reaching the islands. I highly doubt it. If not... crow f!

I doubt it to but this time of year anything is possible
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288. JLPR2
I see 97L is a small circulation inside another large and broad.

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286. MahFL
Also now to 97L's west the atmosphere is moist, a bit dry to the south, but moist to the west.
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285. Relix
No way in heck 97L develops before reaching the islands. I highly doubt it. If not... crow for me!
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Quoting 271. kmanislander:


Maybe that is why I never saw what they posted :-)

You can share though right ?? LOL
I would like your thoughts on this please.
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Quoting 279. unknowncomic:
My first cane experience that started out in a similar spot to 97L.


This was also the first hurricane I experienced after moving to Miami from Pa.
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Human ego is subject to small victories of the Mind.



We all have been watching 97L since Africa.


Since it was a lil pouch.



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My first cane experience that started out in a similar spot to 97L.


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278. MahFL
Remember the llc properly is not moving SW, it's the convection that is spreading SW due to less shear. In a perfect situation a hurricane is circular, not oval shaped.
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Who cares who called what, does it matter?? This is nature, nobody wins a prize.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
276. Skyepony (Mod)
97L
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Quoting 265. UNThurricane2019:
So I see we're still at 6-0-0 and no imminent signs of that changing? ;)

Looks like my prediction of 10-0-0 is still intact. :)


If we don't get a hurricane soon, I'm going to start thinking my 8-4-1 prediction was too bold.
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Quoting 221. barbamz:
Huuh, watch this! From Taiwan. Very lucky, this car driver!



Near the Bisha Fishing Port in the city of Keelung in the north of Taipei, torrential rains flooded the streets, creating mudslides. In a video a motorist escaped unscathed when rocks were falling down from the mountains.
The main roads leading to the train station in Keelung Road West are completely flooded.
More than 185 millimeters of rain have created extensive damage throughout the city.


Translated from an Italian weather site.
Lucky--I'll say. That car would have been a pancake with the people in side it.
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might be alot of flooding again for PR and the islands next week...
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Although seemingly inevitable, I think it was a good decision.






A dish of 2004, anyone? Lets just hope the high backs off! I think the trough is forecast to lift out or flatten, no?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 268. islander101010:
beg your pardon kman there were bloggers mentioning the possiblities of 97 before you got off your pillow. more like ours.


Maybe that is why I never saw what they posted :-)

You can share though right ?? LOL
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER WATER NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED AND
SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS
DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
INVEST 96 GOING DOWN TO 30%
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Quoting 260. hurricanes2018:
HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH THIS HURRICANE MOVN NORTH FROM GEM GO ON DAY FOUR.
as long as it shows it then its still a possibility huh..better to be forewarned than getting caught offguard,my best guess is next week is going to get a bit active with storms..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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