Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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It's pretty bad when a "tropical depression" looks better than some major hurricanes out there lol

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Quoting 363. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
give it a rest 93 no one wants to hear it
it can become quite deafening
........is all i can say to that considering a couple on here including myself predictions have been right over yours and others, so I have more credibility.
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Quoting 357. CybrTeddy:


Not much in the way of convection or energy associated with it, seems like 97L will probably absorb it completely.















Yup the convection is all at the boundary between the two.
Very interesting to see how it unfolds.
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97L select Model Page
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Quoting 353. CybrTeddy:


ROFL Wow!

I think NHC put all of the attention into the Atlantic that they forgot about the pacific yeah TD11E looks more like strong TS11E or weak Hurricane 11E
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11992
TD 11E.... something must be wrong at the NHC today. I've heard of internet outage but it was for yesterday I think

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give it a rest 93 no one wants to hear it
it can become quite deafening
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Quoting 266. weathersp:
Found this on twitter from a person named "wxmeddler"



Thanks Sky.
So that explains this then.
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Quoting 353. CybrTeddy:


ROFL Wow!


18z Best Track at 40kts.

EP, 11, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1163W, 40, 1005, TS
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 301403
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 30 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. ATLANTIC WAVE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 31/1600Z
B. NOAA9 01XXA WAVE
C. 31/1300Z
D. 15.0N 56.0W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/2000Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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Quoting 349. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why the hell is 11E still a tropical depression?
Looks like a cat-2.
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Quoting 351. Jamiekins:


Yes but what my completely untrained eye is seeing is 97L slowing down and the second axis catching up and interacting. possibly changing the dynamics. or not. LOL


Not much in the way of convection or energy associated with it, seems like 97L will probably absorb it completely.
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Quoting 350. ncstorm:


since I am the only talking about the Euro, I will respond to your indirect post..

I'll stop hyping when you stop downcasting..deal?

(except I wasn't hyping)..


well for one, hes not downcasting. He is just being real. This season has been horrible so far and when people on here were listing the reasons why it would not be as big as a season as some thought about a month ago, you ALL called us downcasters. Well look who is right at this point, US not YOU.
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Quoting 282. stormwatcherCI:
This was also the first hurricane I experienced after moving to Miami from Pa.
Cleo hit a couple years before I was born at Mt. Sinai Hospital on Miami Beach. She told me it was a bit of a surprise for them, but not unusual for Mets to be off a bit on timing. Grandma talked a lot about the Miami storms.She used 3 words to describe 1950 Hurricane King..King was vicious.!
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Quoting 338. wunderkidcayman:

The BEST track plot are estimated not actual


We need a plane lol
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Quoting 349. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Why the hell is 11E still a tropical depression?


ROFL Wow!
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The NOAA from MCDill,AFB Gulfstream "Gonzo"

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Quoting 345. CybrTeddy:


Different wave axis.


Yes but what my completely untrained eye is seeing is 97L slowing down and the second axis catching up and interacting. possibly changing the dynamics. or not. LOL
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Quoting 337. washingtonian115:
Stop hyping the Euro situation please.It barely shows development.


since I am the only one talking about the Euro, I will respond to your indirect post..

I'll stop hyping when you stop downcasting..deal?

(except I wasn't hyping)..
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Why the hell is 11E still a tropical depression?
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Quoting 336. Skyepony:
Gonzo is flying above 97L at ~46,000 releasing dropsondes.

They are flying in a square pattern that gets smaller & nearer the center...which they haven't reached yet.. pressure down to 1011mb, highest wind at the surface so far is 26kts.

Flying upper level flight
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11992

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I roll with Sort: Newest First, that way I don't have to look down,

; )


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Quoting 341. Jamiekins:
As usual this season any AOI is a convoluted ??? We could be looking at two "its" this time tomorrow. Look back up at Pats pouch post. There are two in the vicinity.


Different wave axis.
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Quoting 336. Skyepony:
Gonzo is flying above 97L at ~46,000 releasing dropsondes.

They are flying in a square pattern that gets smaller & nearer the center...which they haven't reached yet.. pressure down to 1011mb, highest wind at the surface so far is 26kts.
good info on this one always nice
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CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1838 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130831 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130831 1800 130901 0600 130901 1800 130902 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 55.5W 15.2N 58.0W 15.4N 60.2W 15.2N 62.2W
BAMD 15.1N 55.5W 15.3N 57.0W 15.5N 58.5W 15.6N 59.9W
BAMM 15.1N 55.5W 15.1N 57.5W 15.1N 59.3W 14.9N 61.0W
LBAR 15.1N 55.5W 15.3N 57.6W 15.5N 59.9W 15.6N 62.4W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 37KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130902 1800 130903 1800 130904 1800 130905 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 64.2W 15.8N 68.2W 17.4N 73.1W 19.2N 78.1W
BAMD 15.6N 61.2W 16.3N 64.3W 18.0N 68.3W 19.9N 72.3W
BAMM 14.7N 62.5W 15.2N 65.9W 17.2N 70.1W 19.6N 74.4W
LBAR 15.5N 64.9W 15.2N 69.6W 16.6N 73.9W 18.9N 76.4W
SHIP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 71KTS
DSHP 45KTS 58KTS 67KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 55.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 52.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 50.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
As usual this season any AOI is a convoluted ??? We could be looking at two "its" this time tomorrow. Look back up at Pats pouch post. There are two in the vicinity.
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Quoting 321. rmbjoe1954:
97L has that look, but until it gets properly stacked - perhaps by the time it gets into the Carib- it may explode into the first hurricane. That's a big maybe.


Perhaps you're seeing something I'm not, but 97L looks stacked to me.
850mb.


700mb.
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339. SLU
Conditions remain better than the TWO indicated.

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972013 08/31/13 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 45 52 58 62 67 69 71
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 45 52 58 62 67 53 61
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 35 40 48 58 69 79 65 77

Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 5 3 5 2 5 3 8 4 13 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3
SHEAR DIR 259 244 251 260 221 206 133 269 318 264 285 240 249
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 146 146 149 151 153 155 154 154 154 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 140 140 143 144 147 150 150 150 148 147
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12
700-500 MB RH 51 50 52 54 54 56 60 60 62 62 62 62 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 17 17 19 23 43 52 58 52 46 34 24
200 MB DIV 32 17 25 25 28 23 14 8 14 18 24 14 19
700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 0 -1 -2 0 0 1 4 8 6 4
LAND (KM) 763 682 609 554 512 455 444 404 311 234 118 -17 50
LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.8 15.2 16.0 17.2 18.4 19.6
LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.5 57.5 58.4 59.3 61.0 62.5 64.1 65.9 67.9 70.1 72.3 74.4
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 10 11 12 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 27 29 35 43 48 24 44 56 56 40 25 98 40

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
-------------------------------------------------- --------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
-------------------------------------------------- --------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 33. 37. 42. 44. 46.

** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 08/31/13 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 08/31/13 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 08/31/2013 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5126
Quoting 334. SLU:



55.5W?

I don't think the center has crossed 55W as yet.

The BEST track plot are estimated not actual
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11992
Stop hyping the Euro situation please.It barely shows development.
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336. Skyepony (Mod)
Gonzo is flying above 97L at ~46,000 releasing dropsondes.

They are flying in a square pattern that gets smaller & nearer the center...which they haven't reached yet.. pressure down to 1011mb, highest wind at the surface so far is 26kts.
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Quoting 332. MahFL:
The new shear map shows the shear moving away slightly to the NE. If 97L can stay W or WSW it will have good chance to develop.

Agree and I think that's what it would do
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11992
334. SLU
Quoting 325. Tropicsweatherpr:
18z Best Track for 97L.

AL, 97, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 555W, 25, 1008, DB



55.5W?

I don't think the center has crossed 55W as yet.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5126
Quoting 331. ncstorm:


sorry, I didnt scroll back when I posted..kudos!


No sorry s needed. I really mean thanks :O)
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332. MahFL
The new shear map shows the shear moving away slightly to the NE. If 97L can stay W or WSW it will have good chance to develop.
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Quoting 327. Jamiekins:













Thanks.
Thats a better way of pointing out what I just said.


sorry, I didnt scroll back when I posted..kudos!
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330. SLU
31/1745 UTC 15.1N 54.4W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5126
Quoting 325. Tropicsweatherpr:
18z Best Track for 97L.

AL, 97, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 555W, 25, 1008, DB
mark triple nickel
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enviro out front 97l image centred 15.55n 69.25w
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Quoting 323. ncstorm:
the Euro is showing possible two developments as the CMC has been showing..except it takes 97L into CA while taking the other wave NW into the bahamas..the CMC developed both and brought them north..tick tock tick tock..boy that clock theory is working overtime..













Thanks.
Thats a better way of pointing out what I just said.
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168 hours
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18z Best Track for 97L.

AL, 97, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 555W, 25, 1008, DB
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14253
Like someone said last night,just leave it alone,it may develop.
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the Euro is showing possible two developments as the CMC has been showing..except it takes 97L into CA while taking the other wave NW into the bahamas..the CMC developed both and brought them north..tick tock tick tock..boy that clock theory is working overtime..
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322. MahFL
Meanwhile TX continues to bake.

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97L has that look, but until it gets properly stacked - perhaps by the time it gets into the Carib- it may explode into the first hurricane. That's a big maybe.
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Quoting 279. unknowncomic:
My first cane experience that started out in a similar spot to 97L.




I could only get 17 seconds of that video. 1964 was the the 1st hurricane that I can recall also, but it was Hilda and I was in Slidell, La.
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12z Euro running..

144 hours
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.