Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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LinkThis guy is very lucky to be alive.
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If 97L pulls a Chantal and poofs after passing Hispanola, I'm pulling my hair out -__-
As for 11E, NHC fail..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 410. nrtiwlnvragn:


Entry in Fix file:

EP 11 201308311529 30 SSMS C 1890N 11620W 2 2 2 NHC CWL SSMS 2 TWO-THIRDS EYEWALL? 89 GHZ
Even more reason not to have kept it a tropical depression over the past few hours.
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Quoting 392. SuperStorm093:


No duh a hurricane will eventually form. But everyone's prediction has been wrong about when expect for myself and I think two others. So look at how all the maps and radar pictures has done to help you guys out, nothing. And to use age as a insult, is very bad. Some younger people can do a better job then an older person.

...............



I never said you was young..you act immature but I doubt you are young..there are people who are well in their 40s, living in their mom's basement and playing Call of Duty online on their playstations..
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All these years and some still don't know where to go to get a current look at anything.

Sad, sad, sad..

Tropical Depression 11E

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2013 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 19:22:02 N Lon : 116:37:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1002.2mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.1 3.4

Center Temp : -59.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 33km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.9 degrees


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Quoting 411. Astrometeor:


Nope, apparently not. I don't think it helps the NHC's situation though, unless TD 11E is Ernesto part two.

What year?
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Quoting 410. nrtiwlnvragn:


Entry in Fix file:

EP 11 201308311529 30 SSMS C 1890N 11620W 2 2 2 NHC CWL SSMS 2 TWO-THIRDS EYEWALL? 89 GHZ

Is that real?
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Quoting 400. nrtiwlnvragn:


The overpass was at 1529Z, they may not have got the data for 1-2 hours after that.
Microwave passes are usually out within 45 minutes on the Navy site, from what I've seen, 97L's SSMI pass being an example.

Still gives them >2 hours for some sort of action. I understand that it's in the middle of the EPAC, and nobody really cares about a system that isn't going to affect anyone, but it doesn't mean that they disregard something so blatant.
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Quoting 389. nrtiwlnvragn:
Does anyone read NHC forecast discussions?


Nope, apparently not. I don't think it helps the NHC's situation though, unless TD 11E is Ernesto part two.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
Quoting 395. MiamiHurricanes09:
I understand, but considering that they're "the Lead Hurricane agency" you'd think that they'd be on top of it.


Entry in Fix file:

EP 11 201308311529 30 SSMS C 1890N 11620W 2 2 2 NHC CWL SSMS 2 TWO-THIRDS EYEWALL? 89 GHZ
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Quoting 350. ncstorm:


since I am the only one talking about the Euro, I will respond to your indirect post..

I'll stop hyping when you stop downcasting..deal?

(except I wasn't hyping)..
Saying that the Euro is showing development when it shows a very broad area of low pressure and a area of Vorticity in the vicinity of the Bahama's is not development.
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Quoting 396. GatorWX:
Oh, can't you see I'm fading fast?
And that this shot will be my last



See you tonight 97.


Yup
But look at the interaction zone between 97 and the wave behind it. The only continuing building convection. Very interesting to what this does with it.
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Hi everyone! I am headed out the door to go fishing for halibut in Homer, Alaska. Just wanted to wish everyone a happy and safe holiday weekend! Next time I post will be about the MONSTER halibut I caught. Since that is a little off topic, and this is a weather blog, it is cloudy and cold in Anchorage, AK. Take care guys...eat too much, laugh too loud, and drink one for me. :-)
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Oy! building eastward



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This has got to be a hurricane or strong tropical storm now.
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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 311453
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 116.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND
WEAKENING COULD BEGIN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
403. JLPR2
Quoting 390. WoodyFL:


The models are very optimistic. Watch 97L either struggle all of its life or fall apart shortly.

I don't expect much until it reaches the Western Caribbean away from the TUTT.

Though you all know weather, it does what it wants despite everything we say...
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Here is what the San Juan NWS discuss about the effects of wave in PR.

TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT WITH THE WAVE
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND COMPLETING THE
TURN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN LOBE OF THE TUTT LOW ON
MONDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FINALLY ABLE TO REACH NORTH
INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES...HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE
TAPERS OFF VERY SLOWLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE 2 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE 2-INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RETURNING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST...BUT WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AND THIS RAIN MAY
EXASPERATE ANY MUDSLIDE ACTIVITY. FLASHING FLOODING DURING THESE
TWO DAYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
HIGH RISK. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF HAVING
AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALL DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
ALSO THE HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS WAVE A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
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Quoting 382. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Degree or certificate of some kind please?


How about the degree's of the many METS that forecasts have already been wrong. so that has nothing to do with this. Btw how did your prediction for August go?
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Quoting 384. MiamiHurricanes09:
It doesn't matter what they are. A microwave pass that came out 3 hours ago depicted a nearly completed eyewall, and yet they have failed to release some sort of special advisory. Now the system has an eye, and it's still a tropical depression.

It's careless and makes it look like they aren't at their desks.


The overpass was at 1529Z, they may not have got the data for 1-2 hours after that.
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Quoting 390. WoodyFL:

















That doesnt look good !
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Quoting 353. CybrTeddy:


ROFL Wow!
Anyone have a link to 11's floater?
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Oh, can't you see I'm fading fast?
And that this shot will be my last



See you tonight 97.
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Quoting 388. Patrap:


Care-less, that's we do with a E Pac System going no where fast.

I understand, but considering that they're "the Lead Hurricane agency" you'd think that they'd be on top of it.
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Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee..........

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Quoting 370. MiamiHurricanes09:
11E has had an established eyewall for over 3 hours.



Looks like a monumental fail on the NHC's part.

Uhh, do you see an eyewall on this imagrey?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 371. ncstorm:


well for one, he is a she, and second the season is on the letter F ..yes, no hurricanes but I do remember that the season goes to November..

when the first hurricane forms because it will, will you be here posting then or still downplaying..

I mean why come here and complain..if you are unhappy with the season and you clearly keep saying there are no storms to track then why come here..is your playstation broken..I mean I will pay for it to be fix if you need something else to occupy your time..

I havent seen you post one SINGLE map or radar while here..


No duh a hurricane will eventually form. But everyone's prediction has been wrong about when expect for myself and I think two others. So look at how all the maps and radar pictures has done to help you guys out, nothing. And to use age as a insult, is very bad. Some younger people can do a better job then an older person.

...............

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Quoting 385. Patrap:
11 E goes "Das poof" in the Dvorak Loop

LOL

















Eyewall replacement? LOL
Couldnt resist. Carry on.
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Does anyone read NHC forecast discussions?


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013



THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TAFB...SAB...AND ADT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE 1200Z
ESTIMATES AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
SHORTLY.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 384. MiamiHurricanes09:
It doesn't matter what they are. A microwave pass that came out 3 hours ago depicted a nearly completed eyewall, and yet they have failed to release some sort of special advisory. Now the system has an eye, and it's still a tropical depression.

It's careless and makes it look like they aren't at their desks.


Care-less, that's we do with a E Pac System going no where fast.

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Quoting 364. CaribBoy:
TD 11E.... something must be wrong at the NHC today. I've heard of internet outage but it was for yesterday I think



Well...it is Labor Day weekend...
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6453
11 E goes "Das poof" in the Dvorak Loop

LOL



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Quoting 379. Patrap:
Nothing like a wunderblogger dissing the Lead Hurricane agency on a Saturday.

Stay Classy Fla.

It doesn't matter what they are. A microwave pass that came out 3 hours ago depicted a nearly completed eyewall, and yet they have failed to release some sort of special advisory. Now the system has an eye, and it's still a tropical depression.

It's careless and makes it look like they aren't at their desks.
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Quoting 369. cyclonekid:
It's pretty bad when a "tropical depression" looks better than some major hurricanes out there lol



Ummmm
Is that a pinhole eye I see,in a depression? LOL
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Quoting 368. SuperStorm093:
........is all i can say to that considering a couple on here including myself predictions have been right over yours and others, so I have more credibility.
Degree or certificate of some kind please?
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FAIL / BUST

Great association XD
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6453
Quoting 370. MiamiHurricanes09:
11E has had an established eyewall for over 3 hours.



Looks like a monumental fail on the NHC's part.


Flashbacks to Hurricane Rina in 2011.
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Nothing like a wunderblogger dissing the Lead Hurricane agency on a Saturday.

Stay Classy Fla.

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378. JRRP
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Quoting 362. HurricaneAndre:


ISAAC track in the short term... but those models are no reliable lol
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6453
Quoting 362. HurricaneAndre:

This could escalate very quickly one it hits that 70W/75W line
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
uggghhhhh 24-6
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31/1800 UTC 19.3N 116.6W T2.0/2.0 11E -- East Pacific

That's only an hour or so old.
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Quoting 369. cyclonekid:
It's pretty bad when a "tropical depression" looks better than some major hurricanes out there lol





It is a Holiday weekend, so the Staff is mostly interns and wunderblogger's
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Quoting 355. hydrus:
Cleo hit a couple years before I was born at Mt. Sinai Hospital on Miami Beach. She told me it was a bit of a surprise for them, but not unusual for Mets to be off a bit on timing. Grandma talked a lot about the Miami storms.She used 3 words to describe 1950 Hurricane King..King was vicious.!


That's where i was born.. sometime just before Grothar invented fire...
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Quoting 356. SuperStorm093:


well for one, hes not downcasting. He is just being real. This season has been horrible so far and when people on here were listing the reasons why it would not be as big as a season as some thought about a month ago, you ALL called us downcasters. Well look who is right at this point, US not YOU.


well for one, he is a she, and second the season is on the letter F ..yes, no hurricanes but I do remember that the season goes to November..

when the first hurricane forms because it will, will you be here posting then or still downplaying..

I mean why come here and complain..if you are unhappy with the season and you clearly keep saying there are no storms to track then why come here..is your playstation broken..I mean I will pay for it to be fix if you need something else to occupy your time..

I havent seen you post one SINGLE map or radar while here so whats your objective..is the cookie thing..I can post it and give you your props..
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11E has had an established eyewall for over 3 hours.



Looks like a monumental fail on the NHC's part.
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It's pretty bad when a "tropical depression" looks better than some major hurricanes out there lol

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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