Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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as of now 97L will be going through the death zone lol. cya
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Quoting 372. indianrivguy:


That's where i was born.. sometime just before Grothar invented fire...
Lol..I was told he just watched over them so they didnt burn the place down..:)
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Quoting 460. wunderkidcayman:

I say more like 14.9N 54.9W


I think it's just a tad north. 15.1N / 55W XD

But lets wait for the last visible images before sunset.
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Season so far
6 Bust and Bust

Maybe 97?
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Quoting 458. MAweatherboy1:
I can't wait to see what the NHC uses for 11E's intensity at the next advisory. ATCF has 40kts and satellite estimates really don't support more than that but it has an obvious eye and eyewall more characteristic of a hurricane than a 40kt storm. Very weird. Also, ATCF has the pressure at 1005mb, the same as the last advisory.

maybe it will be a hurricane at the next advisory. Another Humberto, maybe.
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Keep
Arent we almost due a "MARK" sat pic?
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Quoting 394. Patrap:
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee..........

Wait till D-mAX DUDE..;0
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97 growing in size more than likely going to have the largest rain event of the yr for the windwards and northern leewards
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Quoting 452. CaribBoy:


55.5 is doubtful

I say more like 14.9N 54.9W
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Quoting 455. Patrap:


Maybe see comment 443. Astrometeor, before going all Miley on me sport'

;P

2:23 PM CDT on August 31, 2013 +0


No you don't, lol. Not on a private service.

On-topic: When is the next advisory from the NHC for the TD in the EPac?


All Miley, lol!

Thanks Patrap.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9783
I can't wait to see what the NHC uses for 11E's intensity at the next advisory. ATCF has 40kts and satellite estimates really don't support more than that but it has an obvious eye and eyewall more characteristic of a hurricane than a 40kt storm. Very weird. Also, ATCF has the pressure at 1005mb, the same as the last advisory.
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97L LOOP

See how the heck the MDG islands are rain magnet!
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Quoting 443. Astrometeor:


No you don't, lol. Not on a private service.

On-topic: When is the next advisory from the NHC for the TD in the EPac?
Exactly, which is why the constitution means nothing anymore and is very sad to see what this world is turning into.
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Quoting 449. Tazmanian:




and your point is?


Maybe see comment 443. from blogger Astrometeor, before going all Miley Cyrus on me sport'

;P

2:23 PM CDT on August 31, 2013 0


No you don't, lol. Not on a private service.

On-topic: When is the next advisory from the NHC for the TD in the EPac?
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Quoting 441. Relix:


Gotta quote you for one thing...

This blog is not government based. There's no freedom of speech here, just what is appropriate or conforming to the rules. You can't go into a private bank and start protesting inside it... same basics apply here.

Yes thank you he need to understand that and if he doesn't like it he can go and give trouble elsewhere
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Quoting 426. MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, lol, hopefully it doesn't drift eastwards towards the coast.


Using Key West's radar (longer range radars tend to be better for overall motion of storms), that cluster is moving straight towards Miami and Coral Gables!
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Quoting 446. Tazmanian:
AL, 97, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 555W, 25, 1008, DB



55.5 is doubtful
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Quoting 436. Patrap:
looking good.
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Quoting 439. stoormfury:
iS THERE A CENTRE REFORMATION OF 97L NEAR 14.9N 52W. THIS AREA HAS THE ROBUST SPIN AND WHERE ALL THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE MOVING TOWARDS


NOT SURE BUT HOPEFULLY YES XD
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Quoting 447. Patrap:
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND
WEAKENING COULD BEGIN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA




and your point is?
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Best looking tropical depression/storm I have probably ever seen lol

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AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SLOW ITS
FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND
WEAKENING COULD BEGIN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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AL, 97, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 151N, 555W, 25, 1008, DB

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Quoting 431. SuperStorm093:


I thought I had you gone? Must be something wrong with the system....
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
Quoting 440. Tazmanian:
EP, 11, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1163W, 40, 1005, TS


The 4pm CDT NHC Update will show that too I'm sure Taz.

Thanx

You caught it furst too.
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Quoting 431. SuperStorm093:
Just ignore me who cares, I have this thing called freedom of speech, and I will use it how I want.

I am just getting bored of being right and having no ACTUAL storms to track.


No you don't, lol. Not on a private service.

On-topic: When is the next advisory from the NHC for the TD in the EPac?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9783
11E's eye is becoming clearer with every new frame:

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441. Relix
Quoting 431. SuperStorm093:
Just ignore me who cares, I have this thing called freedom of speech, and I will use it how I want.

I am just getting bored of being right and having no ACTUAL storms to track.


Gotta quote you for one thing...

This blog is not government based. There's no freedom of speech here, just what is appropriate or conforming to the rules. You can't go into a private bank and start protesting inside it... same basics apply here.
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EP, 11, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1163W, 40, 1005, TS
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iS THERE A CENTRE REFORMATION OF 97L NEAR 14.9N 52W. THIS AREA HAS THE ROBUST SPIN AND WHERE ALL THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH ARE MOVING TOWARDS
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Gotta feelin' SuperStorm093 will magically "disappear" if hurricanes start cranking out soon and reappear sometime in June to start anew.
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Just for the books before it dissolves:

92S in the Indian Ocean, Southern hemisphere:


significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
/Ocean/311800zaug2013-011800zsep2013//

(1) the area of convection previously located near 8.5s 68.2e, is now located near 9.9s 67.9e, approximately 310 nm west-southwest of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared satellite imagery reveals a well defined low level circulation center with persistent central convection that has shallowed over the past few hours. A 311308z trmm microwave image shows the organization of the system has not changed over the past twelve hours as the LLCC has remained well-defined and convection has not increased. Upper level analysis
reveals a increasingly unfavorable environment as diffluent easterly and poleward outflow is hindered by increasing vertical wind shear that is now assessed at moderate to high (20-30 knots) levels.



Click to enlarge.
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Quoting 415. Patrap:


Why expend all the energy? We got you, teacher, to continually show us how!!
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
Sorry blog..my apologies..
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As one who was a "The men who stared at Goats".

I will refrain from exploring your Brain Housing group, for now.

; )
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Just ignore me who cares, I have this thing called freedom of speech, and I will use it how I want.

I am just getting bored of being right and having no ACTUAL storms to track.
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Get outa my head Pat LOL
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Quoting 414. 62901IL:

What year?


Ernesto was last year.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9783
Quoting 423. CybrTeddy:
If you guys have a problem with SuperStorm093, just ignore him.


Never heard of Him.

; )
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Quoting 423. CybrTeddy:
If you guys have a problem with edit, just ignore him.


Who?
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Quoting 406. Thrawst:
Oy! building eastward



Wow, lol, hopefully it doesn't drift eastwards towards the coast.
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Quoting 409. washingtonian115:
Saying that the Euro is showing development when it shows a very broad area of low pressure and a area of Vorticity in the vicinity of the Bahama's is not development.


talking about the season is over when its almost September is not a bust..

I like you Wash, so I will bow out gracefully and end the conversation..no need to quarrel about something that is out of our hands..

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Quoting 393. 62901IL:

Uhh, do you see an eyewall on this imagrey?


I'm going to take a stab at this:

yes.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 95 Comments: 9783
If you guys have a problem with SuperStorm093, just ignore him.
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Quoting 401. SuperStorm093:


How about the degree's of the many METS that forecasts have already been wrong. so that has nothing to do with this. Btw how did your prediction for August go?
Hey ignoramous how about showing some respect to those dedicated hard working people who actually save lives you know when a hurricane is actually bearing down on someone. Sheesh talk about being rude and disrespectful. So glad I don't know people like you in real life. How about you actually go and get a real job as opposed to sitting on your ... taunting this blog and gloating about being right like an annoying tool all the time?
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Quoting 402. Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is what the San Juanb NWS discuss about the effects of wave in PR.

TONIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY GRADUALLY SHIFT WITH THE WAVE
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND COMPLETING THE
TURN TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN LOBE OF THE TUTT LOW ON
MONDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FINALLY ABLE TO REACH NORTH
INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOISTURE ARRIVES...HOWEVER...GOOD MOISTURE
TAPERS OFF VERY SLOWLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING
ABOVE 2 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE 2-INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RETURNING THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST...BUT WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL. URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS AND THIS RAIN MAY
EXASPERATE ANY MUDSLIDE ACTIVITY. FLASHING FLOODING DURING THESE
TWO DAYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CURRENTLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
HIGH RISK. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF HAVING
AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALL DURING THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
ALSO THE HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY GIVES THIS WAVE A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.


They removed the "STAY TUNED" from previous days... OK I GOT IT : BUST!

All the rain for the MDG islands again.
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Quoting 416. ncstorm:


I never said you was young..you act immature but I doubt you are young..there are people who are well in their 40s, living in their mom's basement and playing Call of Duty online on their playstations..
And they need to get some help.
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LinkThis guy is very lucky to be alive.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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