Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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07L wooops 97L is alive XD

Link
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Quoting 514. unknowncomic:
I think the season is starting.

Duh lol
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Quoting 508. opal92nwf:

That was a mistake, I had copied the URL of Pat's picture and forgot I still had it copied when I tried to post a picture of the radar in my area. See post #503 for what I was talking about.


Opal
Dont mind me.
Just having a little fun with a very interesting storm. But if you look at the very latest Sat loop it is ingesting some dry air. Prescient savant I can be at some times. LOL
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The more robust rotation with 97L today suggests that pressures are lowering more in its area, and although convection remains sparse, robustly-structured waves like this have to be watched, as I've said over the last couple days. Models will not always catch what happens with broad areas of low pressure like this. Remember 92L? There was not a hint of a low in the gulf on the models before 92L's incipient disturbance got into the Caribbean. The reason is because the models won't generally feedback a broad low, but what they often miss is that when the low comes westward into the Caribbean, it causes the trade winds to pile up and rise, creating convection and a tighter low. The result can be "unexpected" development. 97L likely has a better chance as it comes through the Caribbean than models are currently giving it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26661
515. MahFL
.. needs to maintain itself trough D-min so it has something to work with for D-max.


Lately DMAX's have not been working too well.
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I think the season is starting.
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Quoting 486. CaribBoy:


MAN this thing CANNOT be a 35 KT TS
SO..BUST it isnt huh
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512. JLPR2
Looks like 11E should loose its impressive look shortly.

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FWIW, Global Hawk and SHIPS both analysis 97L in being under less than 20kt shear, CIMSS maps can be a little misleading sometimes.
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Quoting 502. Patrap:
1930 UTC Image






If i didn't know better I'd say that was a big cane.
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Quoting 507. Jamiekins:









Ahhh
Just a depression with an illusion of an eye getting ready to ingest some dry air that will ummmm disrupt the illusion of said eye. LOL Or not.
It sure is pretty.
If its not an illusion can we say the dreaded term ????
RI ? Runs for hills!

That was a mistake, I had copied the URL of Pat's picture and forgot I still had it copied when I tried to post a picture of the radar in my area. See post #503 for what I was talking about.
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Quoting 499. opal92nwf:
Interesting things happening around here!









Ahhh
Just a depression with an illusion of an eye getting ready to ingest some dry air that will ummmm disrupt the illusion of said eye. LOL Or not.
It sure is pretty.
If its not an illusion can we say the dreaded term ????
RI ? Runs for hills!
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Interesting things happening around here!
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1930 UTC Image



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Quoting 490. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I got it at or near 14.85n/55.63w

97L/INV/XX/XX

I got it pretty much there too but more like 55.95w
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Grrrrrrrreat.

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.
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Quoting 495. Hurricanes101:


I think it has the best shot of anything we have seen so far, conditions ahead of it are favorable overall.
Now that I can agree with. But as of RIGHT now, I dont think it will be a TS in the near future atleast.
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ITS LOOKING BETTER TO ME.
Member Since: March 12, 2013 Posts: 29 Comments: 58581
Looks like Levi's forecast to have under observation this wave 97L for posible development, is taking place....

Looks like it will follow the ULL over PR....



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Quoting 491. SuperStorm093:
you actually think it looks good, be honest though it looks like a cluster of storms, no organization.


I think it has the best shot of anything we have seen so far, conditions ahead of it are favorable overall.
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Quoting 490. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I got it at or near 14.85n/55.63w

97L/INV/XX/XX










Thanks Keep.
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493. auburn (Mod)
Quoting 480. SuperStorm093:
97L isnt impressive at all, and it seems whenever we initially get an invest, the models always bring it to CAT 1 and never happens.


You are right on the verge of breaking the "no monomania" in the rules for this blog..seems you have an obsessive zeal for down casting.
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Quoting 486. CaribBoy:


MAN this thing CANNOT be a 35 KT TS


Well its not 8am PDT anymore, so the 4 pm CDT/2pm PDT update will have the ATCF file info, and upgrade to a Tropical Storm.

EP, 11, 2013083118, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1163W, 40, 1005, TS

I'm 90% confident of dat.
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Quoting 487. Hurricanes101:


nah, Superstorm said it looks horrible, so it must look horrible

NEXT!!
you actually think it looks good, be honest though it looks like a cluster of storms, no organization.
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Quoting 463. Jamiekins:
Keep
Arent we almost due a "MARK" sat pic?


I got it at or near 14.85n/55.63w

97L/INV/XX/XX
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Quoting 180. Jamiekins:


Air starting to pile up between 50 and 55,below 15. Keep your eye on this area. The results could adjust centers and forecast tracks. Or not.


At the shameful risk of repeating myself.
Um
Shame on me.
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Satisfaction Guaranteed

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Quoting 485. CaribBoy:
97L Looks Pretty Good on RAMSDIS :-)


nah, Superstorm said it looks horrible, so it must look horrible

NEXT!!
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Quoting 479. Patrap:


MAN this thing CANNOT be a 35 KT TS
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97L Looks Pretty Good on RAMSDIS :-)
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Quoting 428. Patrap:


Never heard of Him.

; )


who dat?

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Quoting 481. WoodyFL:
the loop images on the nws work on here right?


Depends, when you add a image, use the preview comment first to see.
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the loop images on the nws work on here right?
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97L isnt impressive at all, and it seems whenever we initially get an invest, the models always bring it to CAT 1 and never happens.
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Quoting 463. Jamiekins:
Keep
Arent we almost due a "MARK" sat pic?
gonna give it 12 hrs from point of invest I think
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"POST SEASON ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BRIEFLY STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT AROUND 19Z 31 AUGUST"

Lol could you imagine
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475. JLPR2
Quoting 460. wunderkidcayman:

I say more like 14.9N 54.9W


I agree with this assessment. Sure seems there is a smaller and tighter spin in that area. But it doesn't mean squat if the system looses all of its convection, needs to maintain itself trough D-min so it has something to work with for D-max.



The displaced burst of convection to the NE isnt convincing me.
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Storms spreading over Southeast and Southwest Fl.
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Quoting 461. islander101010:
97 growing in size more than likely going to have the largest rain event of the yr for the windwards and northern leewards


Remain to be seen (for the N Leewards) XD But I hope so.

Do you live in the islands?
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just look at the vis loop 97 is organizing. super? gilbert lazy mans encyclopedia says. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gilbert gilbert faced the death zone and ate it up
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470. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I say more like 14.9N 54.9W

yeah
Link
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as of now 97L will be going through the death zone lol. cya
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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