Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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569. SLU
NOAA 49
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A Yucatan player is evolving in that frame on the NAM too
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting 534. Patrap:




So models are all of a sudden predicting a named storm by tomorrow?
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Little bit of rain and lightning down here in South FLA

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HuracandelCaribe


always review your post to show what it shows
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HuracandelCaribe plzs re move your post
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Quoting 560. HuracandelCaribe:
The shear appears to be relaxing a little bit

Oops...
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18z NAM at 57 hours
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
The shear appears to be relaxing a little bit. Look how the top cirrus clouds are rasing to the west in front of the center

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 97
Quoting 554. Patrap:

AL97

Looks like the convection is just to the east of the center.
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The frames show that 15N Vortex to be the CoC for now.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting 554. Patrap:

AL97 Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop

click image for Loop

Click loop to Zoom.



No doubt in my clueless mind,thats 97L
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556. MahFL
Quoting 537. stoormfury:
97L IS LOOKING BETTER WITH EVERY NEW FRAME. IT IS FAST APPROACHING TD STATUS. HOPE THE RESIDENTS IN THE ISLANDS ARE AWARE OF THIS DVELOPING SITUATION.


I don't think they will be too worried about a TD.
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Quoting 553. redwagon:


Boy is Kman gonna be surprised when he gets home. I left for an hour and a half and BOOM! Did Gro drop in to formalize our blob?


Grothar is retiring for a while to focus on other life issues.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569

AL97 Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop

click image for Loop

Click loop to Zoom.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting 502. Patrap:
1930 UTC Image





Boy is Kman gonna be surprised when he gets home. I left for an hour and a half and BOOM! Did Gro drop in to formalize our blob?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3174
Its a good thing that driver wasnt texting and driving.
Special safety reminder. resume weather related posts.
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IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
11E putting on a very impressive show this afternoon.
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Its a swirl, whether its a COC or Vortice rotating around the mean, wont know for a few mo frames likely.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting Neapolitan:
TS Kong-Rey really gave Taiwan a drenching. The following short video is one result:



Yikes...


I would have **** my pants if I was in that white car...****.
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Quoting 540. Neapolitan:
TS Kong-Rey really gave Taiwan a drenching. The following short video is one result (driver of the white car: horrible timing, great luck):



Yikes...


Posted three times today but well worth a repost. I have watched it at least 5 times.
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97L will probably go naked for a time, but definitely a closed LLC as confirmed by Global Hawk earlier today. No fast trade winds, unlike previous storms it's able to close off.
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Quoting 542. CaicosRetiredSailor:


I find that it's a lifesaver, to have battery powered screw guns and an assortment of lengths of "drywall screws"in these circumstances... plus having some assorted lumber helps.


Don't thinks drywall screws would have helped us in this Major, the backside was a muther'...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting 538. Patrap:


Pat
Is that a naked swirl direct center,15 N grid ?
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Quoting 540. Neapolitan:
TS Kong-Rey really gave Taiwan a drenching. The following short video is one result:



Yikes...


Timing, is always critical.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Quoting 531. Patrap:
Elena in 85, like Levi said formed from a Dry sourced Low pressure area, and Elena, was the most intense personal Cane experience I ever had in 85.


5 grown men in a double Car Garage holding down 2 Garage doors was quite the experience.





I find that it's a lifesaver, to have battery powered screw guns and an assortment of lengths of "drywall screws"in these circumstances... plus having some assorted lumber helps.
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A center of low pressure and no near-by convection.
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TS Kong-Rey really gave Taiwan a drenching. The following short video is one result (driver of the white car: horrible timing, great luck):



Yikes...
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539. JLPR2
I wouldn't say hurricane, but definitely a TS.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8500
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
97L IS LOOKING BETTER WITH EVERY NEW FRAME. IT IS FAST APPROACHING TD STATUS. HOPE THE RESIDENTS IN THE ISLANDS ARE AWARE OF THIS DVELOPING SITUATION.
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97L has done a good job of pulling convection over the center with some pop up thunderstorms at this hour which is impressive. As it enters more moist conditions of the Caribbean late tomorrow it should help its convective activity more. Also, upper level winds are decreasing as lower convergence fuels upper divergence and creates more upper ridging.



Still overall disorganized but with a well define circulation I would put the odds of development at least 20% by 48 hours and 30% in the next 5 days.
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Quoting 533. Dakster:
Still looking like nothing is going to form? Or am I missing something?


Not yet,unless it does,and at that point we will know,unless we dont.
Welcome to 2013 cane season. :O)
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
Still looking like nothing is going to form? Or am I missing something?
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Quoting 528. CaribBoy:


Sure! 1 hour of torrential rain then nothin for a whole month is not interesting at all.

















Interesting (possibly) good? most definitely NOT!
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Elena in 85, like Levi said formed from a Dry sourced Low pressure area, and Elena, was the most intense personal Cane experience I ever had in 85.


5 grown men in a double Car Garage holding down 2 Garage doors was quite the experience.


The eye came right over Gulfport and Long Beach, Miss.

A Tornado narrowly missed us in the eye wall, but unfortunately tore the room off the Local School Gym.

Navy Seabee troops in 2 Amtraks went to the shelter and took out the injured and elderly during the eye, before the backside hit.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127569
530. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 525. ILwthrfan:


We really need this to grow and blossom and push southeast, still ongoing is the 31 straight days and counting for last measurable precipitation here.


like to see it develop a little further north .. have only had .5 inches this month ..
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Quoting 527. CaribBoy:


BUST or FAIL lol feel free to choose the most appropriate word XD

















Perspective is the "key" decoder.
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Quoting 526. Jamiekins:

















As long as it doesnt happen in an hours time,no its not too much to ask.
Stay safe be safe.


Sure! 1 hour of torrential rain then nothin for a whole month is not interesting at all.
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Quoting 513. LargoFl:
SO..BUST it isnt huh


BUST or FAIL lol feel free to choose the most appropriate word XD
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Quoting 523. CaribBoy:


I HOPE the N Leewards will got at least 2 inches from it. 2 inches is not too much ask I think

















As long as it doesnt happen in an hours time,no its not too much to ask.
Stay safe be safe.
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We really need this to grow and blossom and push southeast, still ongoing is the 31 straight days and counting for last measurable precipitation here.
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Quoting 522. wunderkidcayman:

Be very very careful what you say now only renumber when it actually gets renumbered


Yes, it was just a little joke :)
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Quoting 516. Levi32:
The more robust rotation with 97L today suggests that pressures are lowering more in its area, and although convection remains sparse, robustly-structured waves like this have to be watched, as I've said over the last couple days. Models will not always catch what happens with broad areas of low pressure like this. Remember 92L? There was not a hint of a low in the gulf on the models before 92L's incipient disturbance got into the Caribbean. The reason is because the models won't generally feedback a broad low, but what they often miss is that when the low comes westward into the Caribbean, it causes the trade winds to pile up and rise, creating convection and a tighter low. The result can be "unexpected" development. 97L likely has a better chance as it comes through the Caribbean than models are currently giving it.


I HOPE the N Leewards will got at least 2 inches from it. 2 inches is not too much ask I think
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Quoting 519. CaribBoy:
07L wooops 97L is alive XD

Link

Be very very careful what you say now only renumber when it actually gets renumbered
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11054
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I got it at or near 14.85n/55.63w

97L/INV/XX/XX


Where did you get this on the plymouth state website? I looked so I could post it on my blog however, I looked on the tropical wx page and saw only info/images for the EPAC TD... Could you point me in the right direction?
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Quoting 516. Levi32:
The more robust rotation with 97L today suggests that pressures are lowering more in its area, and although convection remains sparse, robustly-structured waves like this have to be watched, as I've said over the last couple days. Models will not always catch what happens with broad areas of low pressure like this. Remember 92L? There was not a hint of a low in the gulf on the models before 92L's incipient disturbance got into the Caribbean. The reason is because the models won't generally feedback a broad low, but what they often miss is that when the low comes westward into the Caribbean, it causes the trade winds to pile up and rise, creating convection and a tighter low. The result can be "unexpected" development. 97L likely has a better chance as it comes through the Caribbean than models are currently giving it.


Thanks Levi.
Bold is my edit.
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07L wooops 97L is alive XD

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.