Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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I want big thunderstorms !!!
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Glad August is ending, The heat in Florida has been punishing. Only 5 days where it didn't hit 90 degrees.
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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m

North winds at Barbados indicates system to the east has a circulation, but still looking open overall http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.h tml …
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Quoting 615. clwstmchasr:


Unreal video....


Twas expecting Godzilla to come into the frame..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting 597. allancalderini:
Would be cool if Kiko develops into our first major.


I would like to see that, but like the Atlantic, all the storms have struggled this year. The only thing that the EPac has had that the Atlantic hasn't is hurricanes, but they've all been weaker than one might think.
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Quoting 600. JLPR2:


Exactly!


For now ...
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Quoting 607. HuracandelCaribe:
The shear appears to be relaxing a little bit. Look how the top cirrus clouds are rasing to the west in front of the center



now that works much better
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Kudos to the Gulfstream NOAA Gonzo Flight Crew and Science team.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
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609. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
3:00 AM JST September 1 2013
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Northwest Of Yaeyama Islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 25.0N 122.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 25.5N 123.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Yaeyama Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44778
608. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
3:00 AM JST September 1 2013
===================================

1. Sea Of Japan
At 18:00 PM UTC, Developed Low, Former Kong-rey (1004 hPa) located at 41.0N 139.0E. The low is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots.

2. Midway Island Waters
Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 32.0N 175.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 8 knots.

3. Gale Warnings

Yaeyama Island/East China Sea
Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 25.0N 122.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots

Refer to tropical cyclone advisories on this tropical depression for further information.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44778
The shear appears to be relaxing a little bit. Look how the top cirrus clouds are rasing to the west in front of the center
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NAM at 84 hours
Any low that might form would need to stay clear of the D.R./Haiti or its all over.
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One thing to post the CIMSS Layered images, and one other thing to discount any development off one.

AL97 has a life downstream, that's a given.

2013 is going to play a hand sooner than later now.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
604. Skyepony (Mod)
Gonzo left 97L. Here is the dropsonde closest to the center. 1010mb.

Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 31st day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 150mb
Coordinates: 14.5N 55.9W (View map)
Location: 268 miles (431 km) to the ENE (69°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 042 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1010mb (29.83 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.8°C (82.0°F) Approximately 22°C (72°F) 65° (from the ENE) 6 knots (7 mph)
1000mb 90m (295 ft) 27.0°C (80.6°F) Approximately 22°C (72°F) 65° (from the ENE) 6 knots (7 mph)
925mb 775m (2,543 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 18.2°C (64.8°F) 85° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph)
850mb 1,507m (4,944 ft) 18.0°C (64.4°F) 14.2°C (57.6°F) 100° (from the E) 5 knots (6 mph)
700mb 3,149m (10,331 ft) 10.4°C (50.7°F) Approximately 3°C (37°F) 115° (from the ESE) 3 knots (3 mph)
500mb 5,870m (19,259 ft) -5.5°C (22.1°F) Approximately -22°C (-8°F) 45° (from the NE) 12 knots (14 mph)
400mb 7,580m (24,869 ft) -16.7°C (1.9°F) Approximately -25°C (-13°F) 40° (from the NE) 10 knots (12 mph)
300mb 9,680m (31,759 ft) -31.9°C (-25.4°F) Approximately -53°C (-63°F) 135° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)
250mb 10,950m (35,925 ft) -42.1°C (-43.8°F) Approximately -68°C (-90°F) 265° (from the W) 3 knots (3 mph)
200mb 12,410m (40,715 ft) -54.7°C (-66.5°F) Approximately -73°C (-99°F) 115° (from the ESE) 9 knots (10 mph)
150mb 14,190m (46,555 ft) -70.3°C (-94.5°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 65° (from the ENE) 20 knots (23 mph)


Quoting 583. HuracandelCaribe:

I did the review and everything looked fine but when I posted i don't know what happen.

I was trying to post a graphic that I made. How do I post graphics or photos that I make from my computer?

You can upload these to your wuphotos here too. Under the blue photo tab above.
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603. VR46L
Dust predicted in the Atlantic @12z Sunday

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SAW THAT AREA NEAR 15N 51W AND ASKED IF IT WAS A CENTRE RELOCATION ABOUT TO HAPPEN
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Quoting 599. Patrap:
seems like all the storms we have had this year look exactly like that, and it is getting so boring and old
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600. JLPR2
Quoting 585. Gearsts:
It has nothing


Exactly!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Post 582 and 572 looks like the grid is off mark.
Or is that just me ?
Member Since: March 22, 2009 Posts: 43 Comments: 2064
Would be cool if Kiko develops into our first major.
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18z NAM at 75 hours
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Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting 586. will40:


best to use something like photobucket to host the image

Thanks
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Wow,what a jump for Kiko.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...DEPRESSION HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
KIKO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 116.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO. A RAGGED EYE HAS
INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS
ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT. EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45
KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED
UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.

THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR
SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH
AS IT DID. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED
TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC. COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH
STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Could make a run for hurricane status

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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50kts.

Interested to see what the discussion says.
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Quoting 584. Patrap:
No the Convection organizing as it grows.



Shear is relaxing a little bit.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...DEPRESSION HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
KIKO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 116.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 583. HuracandelCaribe:

I did the review and everything looked fine but when I posted i don't know what happen.

I was trying to post a graphic that I made. How do I post graphics or photos that I make from my computer?


best to use something like photobucket to host the image
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Quoting 572. JLPR2:
As long as the mid-levels remain like this:



There is nothing to worry about.
It has nothing
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Note the Convection organizing as it grows...as well as the Nw and west side Linear lines.

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Quoting 565. will40:
HuracandelCaribe


always review your post to show what it shows
I did the review and everything looked fine but when I posted i don't know what happen.

I was trying to post a graphic that I made. How do I post graphics or photos that I make from my computer?
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582. VR46L
Looking at the NASA Enhanced WV imagery ... its no wonder 97L is @10%......

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If 97L doesn`t crash in the Caribbean islands nor CA and if instead pass in the middle of both it might have a shot at becoming something formidable.
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Does anyone know if the Eastern Caribbean(TC graveyard) is more favorable in September, than other months of the season?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
loop de loop
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Quoting 561. Patrap:


Notice the new area of convection around 51/15.
Split is still a possibility JMO.
Member Since: March 22, 2009 Posts: 43 Comments: 2064
18z NAM at 63 hours
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Quoting 572. JLPR2:
As long as the mid-levels remain like this:



There is nothing to worry about.
exactly
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Ships Guidance shows a TS come 48hr out, not 24.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592


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572. JLPR2
As long as the mid-levels remain like this:



There is nothing to worry about.
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560. HuracandelCaribe 8:33 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

Been there done that myself.

LOL.
Member Since: March 22, 2009 Posts: 43 Comments: 2064
Quoting 540. Neapolitan:
TS Kong-Rey really gave Taiwan a drenching. The following short video is one result (driver of the white car: horrible timing, great luck):



Yikes...
amazing!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6740
569. SLU
NOAA 49
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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