Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

Share this Blog
37
+

A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 669 - 619

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Quoting 665. sunlinepr:


Where is that location?


Arecibo
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Whats going on South of Jamaica ?

This season is Justa makin me crazy.
WU needs some humor. Its a long lost trait that occurred before Mod Click paranoia and the need for it before the influx of trooleapalooza.
And JMO
The entire and - thing that is visible to all only adds to the click grouping thing.
Keep the option / remove the viewing.

Again JMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
667. JLPR2
Quoting 663. CaribBoy:


I want to see something from it, it's too boring


Well at least some thunderstorms should move through our area, specially considering its most active quadrant is the NE and it should pass to our south.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Multi sensor
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting 654. Patrap:




Where is that location?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


GOES-East - Southern CONUS Region WFO Satellite Imagery
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting 656. JLPR2:


Well that's why I said while there is no decent mid-level spin we are good.

One could start developing at any moment.


I want to see something from it, it's too boring
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
Any chance the NHC raises the possibility of development for 97L ?
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
credit Barbados Met office

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 655. MAweatherboy1:
97L has also lost most of its convergence, which won't help it any at DMIN.



Not trying to downcast here, just saying there's nothing too impressive about it right now.

It will gain convergence thought the night
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Convection isn't a problem right now even if it fades, it has to keep a closed circulation going otherwise no matter what convection it has it won't develop.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24169
656. JLPR2
Quoting 613. CaribBoy:


For now ...


Well that's why I said while there is no decent mid-level spin we are good.

One could start developing at any moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97L has also lost most of its convergence, which won't help it any at DMIN.



Not trying to downcast here, just saying there's nothing too impressive about it right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
To whom it may concern, You shouldnt compare a Aug 31st/September invest to a June or July invest within the same area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hate when the rain misses me

I hate Dmin

I hate boring weather

I hate fish storms

I hate stupid GFS northward bias

I hate drought

I hate to see the rain only affecting the central islands

I hate when a storm cross 20N at 60W

I hate tiny storms

I hate fast storms

I hate seeing 97L loosing convection

I hate to have the feeling that 97L won't bring me a drop

WELL I'M BORED WITH THE DROUGHT



Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
The ULL over PR is moving W, so it will follow... so its time to get the Arecibo observatory heaters in high....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I always thought Don Rickles would make a great NHC Director, or Forecaster.



Leave,

..go for a nice drive in another state.

Don't be a schmuck,

RICKLES





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Just spent my whole Saturday having an another adventure in the mountains :) I went on a short trip to a rock wall SW of Hendersonville (about 45 minutes south of Asheville) and I had so much blast climbing up this one. I also saw one of the most beautiful views of Western NC from the 120 feet rock wall. I never thought college will be this much fun!





And to give you an idea how high I was... and yes, I was taking pictures with my back to the rock wall.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 had the TUTT wright in top of her and it still developed before it reached the islands.








Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 636. Patrap:


Looking at the overall..it is already moving a lot of atmosphere,east of the Islands.


Notice the inflow circulation around 53/12 and surrounding is being disrupted.
Anyone with more than a clue than I tell us what that means?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 618. PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Glad August is ending, The heat in Florida has been punishing. Only 5 days where it didn't hit 90 degrees.


We'll Sept. should be more of the same. Sept is a very hot and humid (with lots of T storms) for Southern half of Fl.
Over here on on the S.W. Coast (Ft. Myers) the rainy season finally ends in October (can still get hurricanes), but the daily T storms basically come to and end.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 639. MAweatherboy1:
There may be very little convection left with 97L in just a few hours due to DMIN, we've seen that happen with several storms and invests this year. It'll probably start rebounding in 12 hours or so.


It will start rebounding much earlier than that as early as within the next 6-7 hrs from now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
Looks like the southernmost islands are very dry too.... st vincent, the genadines, tobago
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
AL97 2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
There may be very little convection left with 97L in just a few hours due to DMIN, we've seen that happen with several storms and invests this year. It'll probably start rebounding in 12 hours or so.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 633. CaribBoy:


DMin... I hate DMin :(


Insert pic of Grouchy smurf "I hate D MIN"

Come on picture it... LOL

From one weather/harmless storm lover to another.
Grouchy smurf DITTO. I hate DMIN!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 635. wunderkidcayman:

Well then move there so you can stop complaining about it


nah I'm fine here except for the lack of raiiiiiinnnn
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229


Looking at the overall..it is already moving a lot of atmosphere,east of the Islands.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting 631. CaribBoy:
GRUMPY!!!

LOOK at the Central Lesser Antilles... Always getting all the rain!

RAMSDIS

Well then move there so you can stop complaining about it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
regaining.convection.banding
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 621. VR46L:
Losing the Cold cloud tops at the moment....



DMin... I hate DMin :(
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
Quoting 624. redwagon:


I was kinda worried about that.... so, that guy just S of shooting the Gap, it that yours or mine? And can please explain why DMIN is benefiting storms better than DMAX lately? Can't grok it.

I don't know why but wait and see maybe this D-Max may benefit the system late tonight and tomorrow
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
GRUMPY!!!

LOOK at the Central Lesser Antilles... Always getting all the rain!

RAMSDIS
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229
630. VR46L
Quoting 626. wunderkidcayman:

Well duh D-Min soon be upon it wait till late tonight when D-max starts to kick in


Just observing current conditions WKC :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 621. VR46L:
Losing the Cold cloud tops at the moment....



Is D-MIN time.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14315
Quoting 606. Sfloridacat5:
NAM at 84 hours
Any low that might form would need to stay clear of the D.R./Haiti or its all over.


At the risk of being Mono whatever.
Doesnt that model snapshot hint at a possible split of energy?

This isnt I told ya. This is a question.
If someone has a productive thought on this (yea or nea) I would love to hear it. Truly,pros and cons. I am obviously speculating at this point. Is "it" a valid possibility?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
627. beell
Some nice low level westerly winds south of 97L near the northeastern coast of South America. Something we have not seen this year. Forming a nice convergence zone with the easterlies along 52W.


(click for full image)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 621. VR46L:
Losing the Cold cloud tops at the moment....


Well duh D-Min soon be upon it wait till late tonight when D-max starts to kick in
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
a lot of rain and a lot of lightning and thunder here in Pembroke Pines.It 2 1/2 hours and still raining
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 555. Patrap:


Grothar is retiring for a while to focus on other life issues.


I was kinda worried about that.... so, that guy just S of shooting the Gap, it that yours or mine? And can please explain why DMIN is benefiting storms better than DMAX lately? Can't grok it.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3275
Quoting 620. HuracandelCaribe:
Closer lo at the shear

?? What...?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12150
Is 90.1F here, Hot, August hot, with a tad dryer touch though.

But still Hotsui.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
621. VR46L
Losing the Cold cloud tops at the moment....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Closer look at the shear
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I want big thunderstorms !!!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6229

Viewing: 669 - 619

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.