Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 708. redwagon:

Whoa... well, it explains homegrowns crashing into Veracruz and Tampico these last few years...and no CVs since IKE.


I don't know if what they say about weather modification is true or not... But the locations are real...

Check in Google earth these coordinates: (some of them have been blurred by GEarth)

Link
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It looks like right on cue , as soon as September stars , the switch is turned on, the Carribean , the Atlantic Ocean , heck we now have circles on land ! Despite what the models want to say or predict , it's Mother Earth says when the real start of any season starts , and she is saying now is the start ! I believe we are going to have alot !
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West Jamaica is as wet as I can remember
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GFS is not on board with 97L - should be a low already in the Caribbean by 84 hours .


Compare to NAM at 84 hours
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Quoting 712. scott39:
Ive been watching 97L for a few days along with the forecasting maps. It has everything going for it, to be our first hurricane IMO.

I've been watching it ever since it came off the coast of Africa and I thought to my self this has a shot to develop and could become a hurricane so still looks that way
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
Quoting 710. JLPR2:
New convection is still displaced to the east of the circulation, but overall it's closer to it.



Evidence of improving symmetrical inflows and a tightening circulation. The engine is trying to crank up.
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Ive been watching 97L for a few days along with the forecasting maps. It has everything going for it, to be our first hurricane IMO.
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Quoting 701. emcf30:
Methinks, no one saw this coming.

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO.
A RAGGED EYE HAS
INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS
ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT. EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45
KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED
UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.

THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR
SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH
AS IT DID. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED
TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC. COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH
STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

I don't agree with the NHC's assessment of rapid intensification. It appears that 11E became Kiko somewhere around 09z this morning (5am EDT) and has steadily intensified since that time. Not sure why satellite intensity estimates have been so off.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32043
710. JLPR2
New convection is still displaced to the east of the circulation, but overall it's closer to it.

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709. Kyon5
Despite DMIN, 97L continues to grow convection:


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Quoting 686. sunlinepr:


Ahh, found the website:

In November 1974, scientist Carl Sagan sent a binary message to space from the Arecibo radio telescope in Puerto Rico.

Translated from the binary ones and zeros, that message appears below: (Your post)

Later, an "answer" was found in a corn field in 2001, ...

But I meant this Arecibo:


Whoa... well, it explains homegrowns crashing into Veracruz and Tampico these last few years...and no CVs since IKE.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3252
Quoting 700. VR46L:


Its when the daily cycle has a weakening effect on storms . Loses Cloud tops and can kill a storm . it happens around Sun Down




True that, but this will be different I think as convergence, instability improves, it'll maintain and slowly begin to grow convection overhead. I'm thinking a nice looking CDO getting going long before dmax.
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Quoting 698. CaicosRetiredSailor:
666. Patrap

: )
Thats the total sq footage on my pack of toilet paper from Dollar General. I take the mark at least once a day. On a good day twice! :)
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Live stream of chasers about to get whacked by a line of severe storms in MN. Live now:
Live video and GPS position
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Quoting opal92nwf:

And that is why I would not want to move to California, Europe, Washington state, Oregon...
Move just about a 100 miles west, in Puerto Rico we are soaking, it rains everyday and this year we broke the record,...
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Oh noes, I made the anti-post'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
Unless we have a great surprise tonight, 97L is a BUST to me because I won't get a drop
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Methinks, no one saw this coming.

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO.
A RAGGED EYE HAS
INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS
ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT. EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45
KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED
UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.

THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR
SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE
IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR
DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH
AS IT DID. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED
TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1
HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC. COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH
STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
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700. VR46L
Quoting 678. BrandenCordeiro:
What is D-min?


Its when the daily cycle has a weakening effect on storms . Loses Cloud tops and can kill a storm . it happens around Sun Down

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Quoting 691. opal92nwf:

And that is why I would not want to move to California, Europe, Washington state, Oregon...


I perfectly understand your feelings about all of that...

Lol even Grand Cayman is getting some rain!!
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666. Patrap

: )
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Ahh, found the website:



In November 1974, scientist Carl Sagan sent a binary message to space from the Arecibo radio telescope in Puerto Rico.

Translated from the binary ones and zeros, that message appears below: (Your post)

Later, an "answer" was found in a corn field in 2001, and I have shown it next to the original.
Interesting !!! Had a professor that worked at the Arecibo observatory, when I was a student at "Colegio de Mayagüez(RUM)." He mention something about it...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just spent my whole Saturday having an another adventure in the mountains :) I went on a short trip to a rock wall SW of Hendersonville (about 45 minutes south of Asheville) and I had so much blast climbing up this one. I also saw one of the most beautiful views of Western NC from the 120 feet rock wall. I never thought college will be this much fun!


Nice. I got a mountain of stone in my backyard too. Very cool and short drive to swim, grill out, fish, and hang out with friends up there.

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Quoting 684. WoodyFL:
anybody know whats happening in the caribbean?


I'm getting rained on
Quoting 687. stormpetrol:


Looks like we're in for another soaking later tonight or early morning.

Yep
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
97 north side already heavy rains
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Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting 651. CaribBoy:
I hate when the rain misses me

I hate Dmin

I hate boring weather

I hate fish storms

I hate stupid GFS northward bias

I hate drought

I hate to see the rain only affecting the central islands

I hate when a storm cross 20N at 60W

I hate tiny storms

I hate fast storms

I hate seeing 97L loosing convection

I hate to have the feeling that 97L won't bring me a drop

WELL I'M BORED WITH THE DROUGHT




And that is why I would not want to move to California, Europe, Washington state, Oregon... (where interesting weather is at a minimum)
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Quoting 682. moonlightcowboy:


Exactly. What may be viewed as disruptive could actually aid development despite dmin's waning convection as it nears the islands, serving to aid outflow on the northern side of the circulation. Keep in mind, there's a nice ULAC overhead as well. And, as Beell and Kman have both noted, the convergence of westerlies/easterlies could become more pronounced with the stronger easterlies north of the system finally slowing and the westerlies wrapping, tightening the system. In this scenario, the dead zone subsidence not likely to be much of an inhibitor either. Looking more like we might have a spinner on our hands, folks.




may be your right. it sure looks like it with this too


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Quoting 679. GatorWX:


lol, really? it's 89 F here, "only" 73% RH, 104 F HI, 78 F DP.

;) I say it's nice for a summer day here. Difference of perspectives I guess.


I wasn't complaining that I had some. I just like to use my water cooler and it don't work when it is at these levels. It would be almost pointless to own one in Florida. Those numbers you guys have are sick. Guess you are conditioned to it.
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It shrank...
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Looks like we're in for another soaking later tonight or early morning.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting 672. Patrap:
Arecibo Response





Ahh, found the website:

In November 1974, scientist Carl Sagan sent a binary message to space from the Arecibo radio telescope in Puerto Rico.

Translated from the binary ones and zeros, that message appears below: (Your post)

Later, an "answer" was found in a corn field in 2001, ...

But I meant this Arecibo:

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Severe thunderstorm making its way thru Cincy. The lightning with this storm has been ridiculous!
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anybody know whats happening in the caribbean?

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
Quoting 645. HuracandelCaribe:
Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 had the TUTT wright in top of her and it still developed before it reached the islands.


Exactly. What may be viewed as disruptive could actually aid development despite dmin's waning convection as it nears the islands, serving to aid outflow on the northern side of the circulation. Keep in mind, there's a nice ULAC overhead as well. And, as Beell and Kman have both noted, the convergence of westerlies/easterlies could become more pronounced with the stronger easterlies north of the system finally slowing and the westerlies wrapping, tightening the system. In this scenario, the usual dead zone subsidence is not likely to be much of an inhibitor either. Looking more like we might have a spinner on our hands, folks.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 651. CaribBoy:
I hate when the rain misses me

I hate Dmin

I hate boring weather

I hate fish storms

I hate stupid GFS northward bias

I hate drought

I hate to see the rain only affecting the central islands

I hate when a storm cross 20N at 60W

I hate tiny storms

I hate fast storms

I hate seeing 97L loosing convection

I hate to have the feeling that 97L won't bring me a drop

WELL I'M BORED WITH THE DROUGHT




I feel the same about a lot of those. Though I don't live in the Caribbean, I really hate it here in the winter on the Gulf Coast when we have nothing but days on end with cool/cold, clear, dry, sunny, cloudless weather. It can span for weeks at a time!
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 673. PedleyCA:
Oh, goody look more humidity is on the way, Oh Joy....



Better today, but still too Humid to use the water cooler.

Riverside, Jurupa Valley, CA (Indian Hills), Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:21 PM PDT on August 31, 2013
Mostly Cloudy
91.3 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 42%
Dew Point: 65 °F

Wind: 14.7 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 14.7 mph
Pressure: 29.87 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 93 °F

This is just not normal here. Always good to have AC as a backup


lol, really? it's 89 F here, "only" 73% RH, 104 F HI, 78 F DP.

;) I say it's nice for a summer day here. Difference of perspectives I guess.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3001
What is D-min?
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
677. VR46L
Quoting 651. CaribBoy:
I hate when the rain misses me

I hate Dmin

I hate boring weather

I hate fish storms

I hate stupid GFS northward bias

I hate drought

I hate to see the rain only affecting the central islands

I hate when a storm cross 20N at 60W

I hate tiny storms

I hate fast storms

I hate seeing 97L loosing convection

I hate to have the feeling that 97L won't bring me a drop

WELL I'M BORED WITH THE DROUGHT





The Grumpy Cat looks even more GRUMPY Today !
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What is D-min?
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
Quoting 674. GatorWX:
I guess today's going to most likely break the spell of >.5" rain with <.10". That made 10 days unless things change. Hot and sunny now with notta on the radar.



The Lake is getting dumped on pretty good right now, but aside from the coasts, central Florida has been relatively dry.



North of the lake is the largest concern. And its getting drenched.
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I guess today's going to most likely break the spell of >.5" rain with <.10". That made 10 days unless things change. Hot and sunny now with notta on the radar.



The Lake is getting dumped on pretty good right now, but aside from the coasts, central Florida has been relatively dry.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3001
Oh, goody look more humidity is on the way, Oh Joy....



Better today, but still too Humid to use the water cooler.

Riverside, Jurupa Valley, CA (Indian Hills), Jurupa Valley, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:21 PM PDT on August 31, 2013
Mostly Cloudy
91.3 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 42%
Dew Point: 65 °F

Wind: 14.7 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 14.7 mph
Pressure: 29.87 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 93 °F

This is just not normal here. Always good to have AC as a backup
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Arecibo Response


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283
671. JLPR2
And D-min has arrived.

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Quoting 658. GTstormChaserCaleb:
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Quoting 665. sunlinepr:


Where is that location?


Arecibo
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128283

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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