Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Visual. Barbados.
Wind is freshening out of the WSW.

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1618. beell
Quoting 1614. BahaHurican:
Morning again all... Anybody have a clue what the iridescence I noticed in the morning sky this morning might be?



It's just to the right of centre in this pic I took...


Magic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1606. LargoFl:
WENS-THURS-FRIDAY..thats when we will see IF it developes into something...
Quoting 1586. Llamaluvr:
Look out Portugal !!!
Why? I'm here so please tell me what we can get. Thank's!
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Quoting 1615. gulfbreeze:
Everything that comes off Africa this years falls apart when they hit the water. Whats's up with that and the models seem to be a joke. Just hope we don't need them later!!!
You came upon me, wave on wave.
You're the reason I'm still here, yeah.
Am I the one you were sent to save?
You came upon me, wave on wave.Sing

Read more: Pat Green - Wave On Wave Lyrics | MetroLyrics
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Everything that comes off Africa this years falls apart when they hit the water. Whats's up with that and the models seem to be a joke. Just hope we don't need them later!!!
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Morning again all... Anybody have a clue what the iridescence I noticed in the morning sky this morning might be?



It's just to the right of centre in this pic I took...
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1613. hydrus
Quoting 1609. LargoFl:
next weekend..........
Right through the straights..Maybe..
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Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23901
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;) It's so nice to have a long Labor Day weekend to relax!


About as we expected last evening, 97L looks to have coc reformation with various vortices as those westerlies wrap into the system. I've not looked at much else, but I would expect forward speed to have slowed. The system is producing convection along a linear path associated with the ULL and upper trough, TUTT-like feature to its north and northwest, but the main circ is south of that and still moving west. Expect a continued but slower movement west, not northwest, in the still evidenced low-level easterly flow. There's not enough organization or vertical heights to feel much of the weakness north of the system.



I'm gonna go out on a limb here, and say the "John Hope Rule" will be anomalous to 97L's development, as it continues to show a demonstrative effort to consolidate and produce convection over the warm Caribbean waters despite dry air, despite shearing. The largest problem it has is size, a very broad circulation trying to spin up. Until it can tighten up substantially, get some continuous convection popping directly overhead and to the swest of the coc, it may take awhile before we see development further west. All would seem to fit the JHR but I'm thinking we'll see significant improvement before it gets to 75w.
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1609. LargoFl
next weekend..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38128
1608. JLPR2
The strongest burst of convection is heading westward towards the LLC, either 97L explodes or falls apart.

It's either make it or break now. If it fails to develop before hitting the Caribbean it will have to pass by the E-Caribbean graveyard and try again in the W-Caribbean.

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It seems like convection has been slowly decreasing in the center and SW portions of 97L, while the NE continues to deepen and strengthen. Perhaps it could relocate a center to beneath the really deep stuff to the NW and try to work from there. Might make more progress that way, since that area is really taking off.
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1606. LargoFl
WENS-THURS-FRIDAY..thats when we will see IF it developes into something...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38128
I might be wrong but looks like a MLC is forming around 57.2W along 15N. The blob of convection to its east is the area to watch for a MLC center to try and stack up while the low level center has not moved much in the last 4 hours based on satellite it has not yet cross 60W. If this trend continues it will take the rest of today for them to stack up while crossing over the Lesser Antilles.

Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
1604. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38128
Quoting 1597. Llamaluvr:
Great to have you back! Just in time for the drama...Tazmanian is calling for a cat 2 to develop and clwstmchsr is doubting him, sit back and enjoy!


Is this Wunderground or the YouTube comment section?
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Quoting 1577. VAbeachhurricanes:


The 850mb wort is stretched out pretty far from east to west, so you will probably see vort maxes spin up west and east of the islands until one central one takes over. So you're not crazy to see multiple spins.


couldnt say it better myself....it currently has 3 vorts with the central and eastern vying to be the strongest...

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Quoting 1595. hurricane23:


Or head right into CA


I don't think it'll do that, personally.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23901
1600. JLPR2
Quoting 1556. HuracandelCaribe:


Exactly what I see and since we know from vort maps that the MLC is weak that is a low level circulation.

97L is doing petty good, though it is still a very shallow system.
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1599. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5732
Quoting 1586. Llamaluvr:
Look out Portugal !!!


Severe Troll Warning Issued
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Quoting 1571. weatherlover94:
Good morning every body I normally chat with you guys on the weekends but my laptop decided to randomly stop working. I have been computerless all week....just got it going again late last night
Great to have you back! Just in time for the drama...Tazmanian is calling for a cat 2 to develop and clwstmchsr is doubting him, sit back and enjoy!
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1596. GatorWX


Also, surface obs from islands are what I was referring to.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2858
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think we can assume that 97L has a closed low though, based off satellite and ground observations. Intensity models aren't very good with invests, I doubt 97L will ever become a major hurricane. Might not even develop.


Or head right into CA
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1594. GatorWX
Quoting 1589. CybrTeddy:


I think we can assume that 97L has a closed low though, based off satellite and ground observations. Intensity models aren't very good with invests, I doubt 97L will ever become a major hurricane. Might not even develop.


Those west winds seem to be a good indication.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2858
Quoting 1512. wunderkidcayman:

If I was 13 again I could eat up to about 3-4 times the amount in that image but I've grown and I'm too old to do that again and to skinny as well


How old are you ??
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Quoting 1585. Llamaluvr:
Right on!




Ugh trolls on a Sunday morning
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Quoting 1587. clwstmchasr:


Maybe you'll get your wish. Poof and ignored.

Fine if that's how you want it poof your ignored
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1590. hydrus
Quoting 1580. PensacolaDoug:



LOL!


Competing lows. Unless they bundle their energy it'll be tough to get a system to feedback. Also the east carrib is generally an unfriendly area (the Hope rule). Still, it is Sept.
Yes. If they join forces, cat-9, possibly a 10, W/ 80 foot storm surge, 285 mph sustained. Price of gas $1000 a Gal.
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Quoting 1584. hurricane23:


careful useing those intensity plots as a vortex is being assumed.


I think we can assume that 97L has a closed low though, based off satellite and ground observations. Intensity models aren't very good with invests, I doubt 97L will ever become a major hurricane. Might not even develop.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23901
Quoting 1576. Tazmanian:



if you don't like some one plz this add him too your ignore list

No I won't because the guy is good with his info when he's not being a pest to people

Quoting 1577. VAbeachhurricanes:


The 850mb wort is stretched out pretty far from east to west, so you will probably see vort maxes spin up west and east of the islands until one central one takes over. So you're not crazy to see multiple spins.


Look again the has a peak vort max it's just the outer spin is still elongated ENE-WSW there is no multiple spin this is one tight spin and if you follow it outbound it becomes elongated and it has appearance of multiple vorts
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Quoting 1581. Tazmanian:
AL, 97, 2013090112, , BEST, 0, 146N, 605W, 30, 1008, LO
Look out Portugal !!!
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Quoting 1573. wunderkidcayman:

Look dude go away and stop being a pest

NHC will increase the chances and I'm not calling for anything that's SHIPS model that show a cat 2 ESE of Grand Cayman not at my doorstep so if you want go and pest SHIPS not me
Right on!
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Quoting weatherlover94:
I do not like the way the intensity models are looking for 97 L not good at all


careful useing those intensity plots as a vortex is being assumed.
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1583. ohzone
Quoting 1541. 19N81W:


relax guys based on this season I am sure it will be fine.


I agree and I've dispatched Haarp to ionize it before any further development, happy days are here again.
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1582. vis0

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AL, 97, 2013090112, , BEST, 0, 146N, 605W, 30, 1008, LO
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
Quoting 1567. hydrus:
Greeting Doug. Get the genny primed and the shutters out. 97L developed a cloud and is movin west.omhg...



LOL!


Competing lows. Unless they bundle their energy it'll be tough to get a system to feedback. Also the east carrib is generally an unfriendly area (the Hope rule). Still, it is Sept.
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Quoting hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


Nothing there hydrus..i really dont know what to make of the season in all honesty. Things can change quickly in the tropics and iam still in favor for an uptick in activtity soon.

we shall see :0(
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1578. GatorWX

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2858


The 850mb wort is stretched out pretty far from east to west, so you will probably see vort maxes spin up west and east of the islands until one central one takes over. So you're not crazy to see multiple spins.
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Quoting 1573. wunderkidcayman:

Look dude go away and stop being a pest

NHC will increase the chances and I'm not calling for anything that's SHIPS model that show a cat 2 ESE of Grand Cayman not at my doorstep so if you want go and pest SHIPS not me



if you don't like some one plz this add him too your ignore list
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
1575. VR46L
Quoting 1572. clwstmchasr:


It's not. Maybe if/when it gets to the western Caribbean. The NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing for a reason.


...and they also only have it @ 20% for a reason...
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I do not like the way the intensity models are looking for 97 L not good at all
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Quoting 1564. clwstmchasr:


So the NHC gives it a 70% chance it won't develop in 5 days and you are calling for a Cat 2 on your doorstep.

Look dude go away and stop being a pest

NHC will increase the chances and I'm not calling for anything that's SHIPS model that show a cat 2 ESE of Grand Cayman not at my doorstep so if you want go and pest SHIPS not me
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Good morning every body I normally chat with you guys on the weekends but my laptop decided to randomly stop working. I have been computerless all week....just got it going again late last night
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1570. GatorWX
Quoting 1557. SFLWeatherman:



Good observation. Most likely, where something could more reasonably happen.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2858
1569. GatorWX
Quoting 1560. hydrus:
Is that another low forming to the east of the islands, or am I seeing something that just looks like a spin. Someone help me please.


Also, I tried pointing that out earlier, but I didn't get many takers.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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