Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 751. allancalderini:
Every season is different sir.Not just 2013.
True...Let me clarify, it aint acting right!
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Quoting 762. scott39:
yea, It made a pitiful sound right before it stopped...
didn't hear a thing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53548
invest 96L
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SPSMLB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
625 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FLZ041-044>046-141-144-010000-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
625 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL OVER LAKE COUNTY...ORANGE COUNTY...SEMINOLE COUNTY...
VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR NORTH OF KISSIMMEE. GROUND REPORTS OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS AROUND THE ORLANDO METROPLEX. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SUNSET...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN I-4 AND I-95 AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE ATLAMONTE SPRINGS...BAY
HILL...SANFORD...OVIEDO...DELTONA...AND DELAND.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2937 8149 2933 8141 2927 8141 2927 8130
2905 8092 2879 8094 2879 8097 2861 8097
2860 8095 2835 8097 2835 8166 2857 8188
2897 8169 2897 8166 2902 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 202DEG 6KT 2855 8175 2841 8132
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38107
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97L is looking better than when I left earlier.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2858
763. beell
Quoting 729. CybrTeddy:
If one believes the GFS, 97L will have dissipated in 30 hours.


But if one were to use the GFS (or any model) to look at steering and a hint at favorable or unfavorable conditions ahead of an existing disturbance, what do you think?
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Quoting 743. Patrap:
Anyone else hear a gnat?
yea, It made a pitiful sound right before it stopped...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38107
Looks like another squally night for you kman.
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Quoting 744. kmanislander:


Rain. No vort, nothing of significance now.

It's a tropical wave

On another note do I hear a troll hangin about
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11774
Quoting 737. bobbydoug452:
I PREDICTED THE SAL AND SHEAR YEAR EVERYDAY SINCE JUNE 1ST...... THE 2013 BUST YEAR :)

Grow up, sonny boy! your insecurity is blatantly obvious.
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Quoting 743. Patrap:
Anyone else hear a gnat?


Banning anonymous posting would solve a lot of the BS on this site.
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the next wave looks good



and the Caribbean still looks heavy with convection. I don't see any circulation with it.

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Quoting 723. scott39:
The 2013 season is different....anything can and will happen.
Every season is different sir.Not just 2013.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
Quoting 724. GatorWX:
In reference to this season, what a familiar site lol.



Anybody ever tell you you look like Anthony Kiedes?

And we Texans are greedily eyeing 97L, fosho. Our window is closing, y.e.t..a.g.a.i.n.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3227
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38107
Sigh..
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Quoting 734. GatorWX:


And what's that in the West Caribbean stealing 97's glory?


Rain. No vort, nothing of significance now.
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Anyone else hear a gnat?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Quoting 731. bobbydoug452:
snip


Can't call it a bust with 3 months left and a bounty of latent heat in the tropics, troll :)
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
Quoting 646. Bluestorm5:

I lived in Hendersonville for a while, also Swannanoa. Beautiful area, western N.C.
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Convection expanding quite quickly now just to the East of the low center. We need to watch for this to fill in as an indicator of organization commencing in earnest.

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Quoting 726. Patrap:


And what's that in the West Caribbean stealing 97's glory?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2858
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38107
If one believes the GFS, 97L will have dissipated in 30 hours.
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97L--1008mb
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727. beell
BAM's are probably good as anything over the next 48 hrs. Some land interaction ahead?

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
Look for an obvious secondary vort formation at 55/15 between now and this time tomorrow/or not.
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In reference to this season, what a familiar site lol.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2858
The 2013 season is different....anything can and will happen.
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Good evening

97L has hung in there during the Dmin phase which is at its peak about now. From here on temps will cool overhead allowing the convection to condense and produce the rainfall needed to get the heat engine fired up .

Shear is still affecting it on the Northern fringes as the anticyclone is rather small overhead and has not expanded far enough to the N of the circulation to insulate the system.

Only about 7 degrees of longitude to go before the John Hope rule kicks in. I have seen weak systems like this just barely close off on or very near the 63 degree West line after which they tend not to do so until 75 or farther.

A bit of a race against time for 97L with a shot in the sweet spot between 55 and 60W tonight to either crank up and close off in the next 36 hours or run the gamut of the Eastern Caribbean as a wave.

As I have posted many times before, only about 8 or 9 waves have closed off between 63 and 75W in about 38 years of data and more than half of those were lows on the tail end of cold fronts that came from from the NW in October or November. History and time is not on its side but you never know. Maybe it can get it done just under the wire.
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Convection is a tad less strong at DMIN in 97L, but some deeper bursts are coming up now so it seems like it's holding out okay.

Pretty good for a storm assessed to have a near 0% chance of genesis.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
Quoting 716. Sfloridacat5:
GFS is not on board with 97L at 84 hours


Compare to NAM at 84 hours
GFS has a headache. It will come around.
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Quoting 708. redwagon:

Whoa... well, it explains homegrowns crashing into Veracruz and Tampico these last few years...and no CVs since IKE.


I don't know if what they say about weather modification is true or not... But the locations are real...

Check in Google earth these coordinates: (some of them have been blurred by GEarth)

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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