Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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This might be a system to watch once it gets in the western Caribbean in 4-5 days, if it isn't a developed system before then. The only impediment right now appears to be wind shear.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32510
Quoting 812. kmanislander:


I have been overtaken by rain but never gone out in it willingly, not when you can play 365 days a year here LOL. Also, at certain times of the year, like now, rain tends to carry lightning. I'd rather be a live chicken than a fried chicken.

Lol I know but one day when it's just rain try it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Quoting 813. wunderkidcayman:
Right new Poll time
A What will the next TWO (8pm)have for 97L
48hrs. 5days
A 10%. A 20%
B 20%. B 30%
C 30%. C 40%
D 40%. D 50%
E 50%. E 60%
F Higher F Higher If F please specify



B and B
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WPC finally added 97L but see it as a wave and going west

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting 808. kmanislander:
Interesting how much the water vapour field has expanded with and around 97L since this morning. Also note the ULL still retrograding to the West and now to the N of the DR. If this keeps moving along shear should not be a serious issue unless 97L accelerates



There is an ULL to the north of 97L with a sharp inverted west to east flow, it could either rip the system apart or provide good ventilation for it depending on its positioning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Right new Poll time
A What will the next TWO (8pm)have for 97L
48hrs. 5days
A 10%. A 20%
B 20%. B 30%
C 30%. C 40%
D 40%. D 50%
E 50%. E 60%
F Higher F Higher If F please specify

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Quoting 804. wunderkidcayman:

That true rain time is bad tee time

Hey Kman you ever tried to play in the rain OMG it is so fun you should try it


I have been overtaken by rain but never gone out in it willingly, not when you can play 365 days a year here LOL. Also, at certain times of the year, like now, rain tends to carry lightning. I'd rather be a live chicken than a fried chicken.
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Quoting 810. hurricanes2018:
the upper low to west is moving west and get some nice t.storms with invest 97L.
I MEAN TO SAY THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS GOING TO HELP OUT invest 97L TO
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Quoting 806. GatorWX:


Nice blowup for dmin. Ambitious circulation! Wonder how it'll look in 10-12 hrs
the upper low to west is moving west and get some nice t.storms with invest 97L.
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809. VR46L
Quoting 803. sunlinepr:
No front or trough to stop it from moving W



JUST a weak high which should mean if, and that is a big if, it develops, a re curve near the Islands ...Stays a TW and west it goes ....



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Interesting how much the water vapour field has expanded with and around 97L since this morning. Also note the ULL still retrograding to the West and now to the N of the DR. If this keeps moving along shear should not be a serious issue unless 97L accelerates



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Quoting 778. wunderweatherman123:
long range GFS and CMC show a possible southern CV cruiser...
I'll be an old man by then. :P
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Nice blowup for dmin. Ambitious circulation! Wonder how it'll look in 10-12 hrs
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 795. prcane4you:
Next wave,next wave I heard that for the past month.
Yeah me too, it's becoming repetitive, maybe the better wording to use is it is inevitable. Or we could just say a
storm(s) will form sometime in September and call it even. What do you say?
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Quoting 796. GatorWX:


lol, can't have that!

That true rain time is bad tee time

Hey Kman you ever tried to play in the rain OMG it is so fun you should try it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
No front or trough to stop it from moving W

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Hurricane Season should be renamed Troll Season sometimes methinks.

The season is over.

-Said irrational people

BuzzardWrath, NostormsinFlorida, Wrongasusual = a kid or older person who has a lot of time on their hands who finds trolling fun, really you can't blame them, but one must wonder what the parents are doing?

I'm not mad at that, the thing that gets me upset is when one has that self-righteousness to come on here and bash the NHC with no reasoning behind it whatsoever, and act as if they are better than them.

I still don't believe in the ignore feature, not yet at least. Just flag and minus out the comment and if it gets enough negative feedback then zap it will be gone. Thank You mods for doing your job. You don't know how much some of us appreciate that.
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Quoting 792. sunlinepr:


they call that an anular invest


Yes, you know that? There was another CV a week ago which seeded annular and lost it traversing SA... extremely pernicious. Eek.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278


ewrc?? lol
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 792. sunlinepr:


they call that an anular invest coc

LOL I'm eating pasta and ground beef some of that got shot into my nose and my lungs laughing at this
Yeah I guess that's what that shows
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Quoting 794. wunderkidcayman:

Well it just started up this year just give it some time it will eventually come around an you know that half of the time Gov. Works on Island time you know what that mean


Not complaining, just saying that something as simple as loop speed should be easy to put in place.
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Quoting 793. kmanislander:


We have had tons of rain the past week but it is that time of year. Don't mind it all, unless it falls Sunday morning which is golf time for me !


lol, can't have that!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 753. WoodyFL:
the next wave looks good



and the Caribbean still looks heavy with convection. I don't see any circulation with it.

Next wave,next wave I heard that for the past month.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1252
Quoting 790. kmanislander:


Way too slow though and no current still image. The site needs work.

Well it just started up this year just give it some time it will eventually come around an you know that half of the time Gov. Works on Island time you know what that mean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Quoting 760. GatorWX:
Looks like another squally night for you kman.


We have had tons of rain the past week but it is that time of year. Don't mind it all, unless it falls Sunday morning which is golf time for me !
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Quoting 781. wunderkidcayman:

Trust me when I tell you it's never that perfect


they call that an anular invest coc
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Out-Have a good evening everyone.
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Quoting 775. wunderkidcayman:

Got to love Cayman Radar


Way too slow though and no current still image. The site needs work.
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Quoting 782. kmanislander:
Convergence fell off during the daytime weakening phase but should pick up with the 0000UTC map


Yeah

Quoting 784. GatorWX:
777 <----cha-ching

Well that's good to hear.


Yeah and we could do with more
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Quoting 779. MAweatherboy1:
It probably means nothing, but the 18z GFS is the fourth run in a row to show low latitude MDR development in the long range.

Not this crap again..It's been forcasting these 300 hour storms and when we get to the time they never materialized..For an example..the GFS was forecasting that by now we would have 2 storms one a hurricane and the other a strong tropical storm in the MDR.Today out there?.Nothing..
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17477
Quoting 784. GatorWX:
777 <----cha-ching

Well that's good to hear.
Its casino time.
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Quoting 776. sunlinepr:


The circulation has been pretty much closed from this morning. Just not enough convection to warrant a change in outlook.
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Quoting 779. MAweatherboy1:
It probably means nothing, but the 18z GFS is the fourth run in a row to show low latitude MDR development in the long range.


True but look with those highs this could become a Caribbean or E Coast threat
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
777 <----cha-ching

Well that's good to hear.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Convergence fell off during the daytime weakening phase but should pick up with the 0000UTC map

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Quoting 776. sunlinepr:

Trust me when I tell you it's never that perfect
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
As long as the anticyclone stays in place and continues to get stronger, I think the biggest issue for 97L is not shear, but land. If it doesn't get significantly stronger quickly, running aground in Hispaniola or Cuba would be treacherous for it. If it wants to really develop and make a run at our first cane, it either has to take the route through PR or it has to stay south of all the larger islands in my opinion.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 212
It probably means nothing, but the 18z GFS is the fourth run in a row to show low latitude MDR development in the long range.

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long range GFS and CMC show a possible southern CV cruiser...
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Quoting 774. GatorWX:


lol, now you how I felt in June and July. Seems a daily occurrence for you guys lately.

To be honest it's very welcomed we needed the rain extremely bad
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting 772. GatorWX:

Got to love Cayman Radar
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Quoting 770. wunderkidcayman:

That seems to be the case this week


lol, now you how I felt in June and July. Seems a daily occurrence for you guys lately.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 767. hurricanes2018:
invest 96L

Hmm the consensus with 96L is good
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3780
Quoting 764. GatorWX:
97L is looking better than when I left earlier.
INVEST 97L looking better then invest 96L right now
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Quoting 760. GatorWX:
Looks like another squally night for you kman.

That seems to be the case this week
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12364
Quoting 751. allancalderini:
Every season is different sir.Not just 2013.
True...Let me clarify, it aint acting right!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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