Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM KIKO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
COAST OF AFRICA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR

...SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 862. WoodyFL:
the end of the run looks like the bahamas for now.


its the first model run so I ain't buyin it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
00
ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
COAST OF AFRICA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT.
..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
COAST OF AFRICA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS DIMINISHED.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
the end of the run looks like the bahamas for now.

Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
Quoting 839. prcane4you:
TropicalAnalyst do you really think someone here interested in Kiko? I see everyone is talking about the wave near the islands.
Why so interested in trying to shame a person instead of that wave you just speak of... just saying
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
got some hot water in the Caribbean more so in the W Caribbean

97L is going to have fun once it enters


Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
Quoting 855. clwstmchasr:


It's tough when you get ripped for posting information about a tropical system on a tropical weather blog.
Ripped? That was just a question.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1039
858. JLPR2
Quoting 853. GatorWX:


B-I-N-G-O!


So did I win something? :P

Also... there we go! Expanding.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8669
Quoting 839. prcane4you:
TropicalAnalyst do you really think someone here interested in Kiko? I see everyone is talking about the wave near the islands.

I'm interested in Kiko. It's something to track during this lull in the tropics and it has strengthened more than it was supposed to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 852. TropicalAnalystwx13:

To be honest, I don't care if they're interested in it or not lol. It's a public forum. For the time being, Invest 97L is a sheared disturbance. That may change over the following days, but we don't know for sure.
No Kiko. Yes 97L
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1039
Quoting 850. dipchip:
Using WU data to determine the first Hurricane of the season back to the year of my birth. 75 years***


Too many hurricanes....Looks like beer is doing no good to that man in your avatar.... ;)

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9803
Quoting 847. JLPR2:
Even though the larger burst of convection is nice looking I'm more interested in the two cells popping a bit further west around 15.5N, 55.5W, if those grow and expand then 97L will be primed for the D-max peak.





B-I-N-G-O!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2874
Quoting 839. prcane4you:
TropicalAnalyst do you really think someone here interested in Kiko? I see everyone is talking about the wave near the islands.

To be honest, I don't care if they're interested in it or not lol. It's a public forum. For the time being, Invest 97L is a sheared disturbance. That may change over the following days, but we don't know for sure.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
851. GatorWX
11:30 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 850. dipchip:
Using WU data to determine the first Hurricane of the season back to the year of my birth. 75 years
Note: Data before 1949 had to be interpolated using the chart tracks and gragh data;as the track data is missing. 1941 seems to be the latest by a large margin.

First Hurricane N Atlantic
2012 21-Jun
2011 22-Aug
2010 29-Jun
2009 17-Aug
2008 7-Jul
2007 16-Aug
2006 27-Aug
2005 5-Jul
2004 3-Aug
2003 10-Jul
2002 11-Sep ***
2001 9-Sep ***
2000 6-Aug
1999 20-Aug
1998 22-Aug
1997 12-Jul
1996 7-Jul
1995 4-Jun
1994 18-Aug
1993 26-Aug
1992 22-Aug
1991 17-Aug
1990 29-Jul
1989 1-Aug
1988 2-Sep
1987 22-Aug
1986 25-Jun
1985 24-Jul
1984 10-Sep ***
1983 17-Aug
1982 4-Jun
1981 21-Aug
1980 3-Aug
1979 11-Jul
1978 8-Aug
1977 30-Aug
1976 7-Aug
1975 30-Aug
1974 28-Aug
1973 3-Jul
1972 18-Jun
1971 15-Aug
1970 20-May
1969 11-Aug
1968 3-Jun
1967 3-Sep
1966 6-Jun
1965 23-Aug
1964 21-Aug
1963 2-Aug
1962 28-Aug
1961 20-Jul
1960 10-Jul
1959 18-Jun
1958 13-Aug
1957 25-Jun
1956 26-Jul
1955 5-Aug
1954 25-Jun
1953 12-Aug
1952 27-Aug
1951 17-May
1950 13-Aug
1949 8-Aug
1948 26-Aug
1947 13-Aug
1946 7-Jul
1945 24-Jun
1944 16-Jul
1943 27-Jul
1942 20-Aug
1941 18-Sep ******
1940 6-Aug
1939 13-Aug
1938 13-Aug
1937 9-Sep ***


Cool, thanks for putting that together!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2874
850. dipchip
11:26 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Using WU data to determine the first Hurricane of the season back to the year of my birth. 75 years
Note: Data before 1949 had to be interpolated using the chart tracks and gragh data;as the track data is missing. 1941 seems to be the latest by a large margin.

First Hurricane N Atlantic
2012 21-Jun
2011 22-Aug
2010 29-Jun
2009 17-Aug
2008 7-Jul
2007 16-Aug
2006 27-Aug
2005 5-Jul
2004 3-Aug
2003 10-Jul
2002 11-Sep ***
2001 9-Sep ***
2000 6-Aug
1999 20-Aug
1998 22-Aug
1997 12-Jul
1996 7-Jul
1995 4-Jun
1994 18-Aug
1993 26-Aug
1992 22-Aug
1991 17-Aug
1990 29-Jul
1989 1-Aug
1988 2-Sep
1987 22-Aug
1986 25-Jun
1985 24-Jul
1984 10-Sep ***
1983 17-Aug
1982 4-Jun
1981 21-Aug
1980 3-Aug
1979 11-Jul
1978 8-Aug
1977 30-Aug
1976 7-Aug
1975 30-Aug
1974 28-Aug
1973 3-Jul
1972 18-Jun
1971 15-Aug
1970 20-May
1969 11-Aug
1968 3-Jun
1967 3-Sep
1966 6-Jun
1965 23-Aug
1964 21-Aug
1963 2-Aug
1962 28-Aug
1961 20-Jul
1960 10-Jul
1959 18-Jun
1958 13-Aug
1957 25-Jun
1956 26-Jul
1955 5-Aug
1954 25-Jun
1953 12-Aug
1952 27-Aug
1951 17-May
1950 13-Aug
1949 8-Aug
1948 26-Aug
1947 13-Aug
1946 7-Jul
1945 24-Jun
1944 16-Jul
1943 27-Jul
1942 20-Aug
1941 18-Sep ******
1940 6-Aug
1939 13-Aug
1938 13-Aug
1937 9-Sep ***
Member Since: September 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
849. GatorWX
11:26 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 846. sunlinepr:
What will be the effect of that NW jet over 97L?



Help intensify anticyclone?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2874
848. GatorWX
11:25 PM GMT on August 31, 2013



meh, kinda. Not really! lol
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2874
847. JLPR2
11:23 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Even though the larger burst of convection is nice looking I'm more interested in the two cells popping a bit further west around 15.5N, 55.5W, if those grow and expand then 97L will be primed for the D-max peak.



Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8669
846. sunlinepr
11:22 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
What will be the effect of that NW jet over 97L?

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9803
845. Tropicsweatherpr
11:22 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Looks like a Jeanne type system,not saying it will do the same thing but is interesting is at the same area and she had this look.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14226
844. MAweatherboy1
11:22 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
8PM TWO will probably be either 10%/20% or 10%/30%. I don't see it going higher than that for now. I've definitely been wrong about a complete convective collapse during DMIN so far though, north side convection has struggled and gotten sheared but that's a nice blowup further south. We'll see if it can hold it.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7754
843. GatorWX
11:21 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2874
842. ncstorm
11:21 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 838. VR46L:


I have been finding on chrome forcing the bookmarks a couple of times they work but its annoying !


how can someone have a supercomputer implemented but cant keep their website running..LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
841. BahaHurican
11:20 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Evening all. Every time it looks like the EPac is done, we see another viable system... and tracking quite a bit north of west at that.

I keep thinking back to the models that forecasted el nino this year and wondering if it was the impact / effect they were correctly gauging / reading [i.e. what we have seen so far in August] and not the cause [el nino].
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21942
840. GatorWX
11:20 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 828. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It will be interesting to see if Kiko has already reached its peak intensity or not. The system is entraining an abundance of stable air but convection is firing over and near the eye.



Kind of looks like Paloma, albeit much much weaker. The cloud structure is similar though.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2874
839. prcane4you
11:20 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 828. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It will be interesting to see if Kiko has already reached its peak intensity or not. The system is entraining an abundance of stable air but convection is firing over and near the eye.

TropicalAnalyst do you really think someone here interested in Kiko? I see everyone is talking about the wave near the islands.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1039
838. VR46L
11:19 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 832. ncstorm:


good, then its not me..I get some type of message saying firefox cant access their server


I have been finding on chrome forcing the bookmarks a couple of times they work but its annoying !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6893
837. allancalderini
11:18 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 819. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This might be a system to watch once it gets in the western Caribbean in 4-5 days, if it isn't a developed system before then. The only impediment right now appears to be wind shear.

I believe it will be a td or ts when it reach the western Caribbean but I doubt I will see a landfall or close approach of this system,I am almost sure its going to the Yucatan,Cuba or USA.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4253
836. CybrTeddy
11:17 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 830. ncstorm:
12Z Ukmet showing two closed lows at 120 hours..at least I hope I can see that correctly..the colors are atrocious..



Two tropical cyclones, or developing ones.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23927
835. seer2012
11:17 PM GMT on August 31, 2013


More fuel for the fire coming up.
Member Since: July 30, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 614
834. ncstorm
11:16 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 833. IKE:

Same here.


great..thanks!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
833. IKE
11:15 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

Quoting ncstorm:
Is the NCEP sites down..I cant access anything linking to their information..
Same here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
832. ncstorm
11:15 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 823. VR46L:


I have been having difficulty with NWS sites for a few days ...I thought it might have been my IP address


good, then its not me..I get some type of message saying firefox cant access their server
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
831. kmanislander
11:15 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15813
830. ncstorm
11:14 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
12Z Ukmet showing two closed lows at 120 hours..at least I hope I can see that correctly..the colors are atrocious..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
829. redwagon
11:13 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 815. sunlinepr:


Tomorrow AM we can take up annular analogs if 97L keeps it together during DMAX. Epsilon, Andrew, Isabel, Charley and many others.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3231
828. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:12 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
It will be interesting to see if Kiko has already reached its peak intensity or not. The system is entraining an abundance of stable air but convection is firing over and near the eye.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
827. RascalNag
11:11 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 813. wunderkidcayman:
Right new Poll time
A What will the next TWO (8pm)have for 97L
48hrs. 5days
A 10%. A 20%
B 20%. B 30%
C 30%. C 40%
D 40%. D 50%
E 50%. E 60%
F Higher F Higher If F please specify



C, D.

Personally, I'd give it D, D, but I'm not TWO. If it keeps building deep convection right now, I don't see why it can't go deeper at DMAX. Furthermore, the low is almost closed, or perhaps even sloppily closed as we speak and it could easily become more defined overnight. This has been a fun system to watch - 0% 48 hour development chance by TWO this morning to a closing low with deep convection tonight.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
826. WoodyFL
11:11 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 820. GTstormChaserCaleb:
New convection blowing up on the southern side of 97L:



i was just going to post it. Ill let you have the other one lol



Member Since: April 24, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 601
825. HurricaneAndre
11:11 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 813. wunderkidcayman:
Right new Poll time
A What will the next TWO (8pm)have for 97L
48hrs. 5days
A 10%. A 20%
B 20%. B 30%
C 30%. C 40%
D 40%. D 50%
E 50%. E 60%
F Higher F Higher If F please specify

C and D.
Member Since: June 11, 2013 Posts: 20 Comments: 2785
824. prcane4you
11:11 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 802. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hurricane Season should be renamed Troll Season sometimes methinks.

The season is over.

-Said irrational people

BuzzardWrath, NostormsinFlorida, Wrongasusual = a kid or older person who has a lot of time on their hands who finds trolling fun, really you can't blame them, but one must wonder what the parents are doing?

I'm not mad at that, the thing that gets me upset is when one has that self-righteousness to come on here and bash the NHC with no reasoning behind it whatsoever, and act as if they are better than them.

I still don't believe in the ignore feature, not yet at least. Just flag and minus out the comment and if it gets enough negative feedback then zap it will be gone. Thank You mods for doing your job. You don't know how much some of us appreciate that.
TrollTrackerScott will like that.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1039
823. VR46L
11:10 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 821. ncstorm:
Is the NCEP sites down..I cant access anything linking to their information..


I have been having difficulty with NWS sites for a few days ...I thought it might have been my IP address
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6893
822. wunderkidcayman
11:09 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Quoting 820. GTstormChaserCaleb:
New convection blowing up on the southern side of 97L:


Wow if it's blowing up now just imagine what it would be like in 6-8 hours from now
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
821. ncstorm
11:07 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Is the NCEP sites down..I cant access anything linking to their information..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15219
820. GTstormChaserCaleb
11:06 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
New convection blowing up on the southern side of 97L:

Member Since: June 30, 2013 Posts: 12 Comments: 8164
819. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:05 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
This might be a system to watch once it gets in the western Caribbean in 4-5 days, if it isn't a developed system before then. The only impediment right now appears to be wind shear.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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