Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 908. interpreter:

No it does NOT!




yes it dos you no nothing
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If 97L gets to the Western Caribbean,there will be plenty of fuel to help it.

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Quoting 915. SuperStorm093:
Only thing I do not agree with, SAL is not a factor, maybe try looking at a map and trade winds right now arent bad. But ULL will always be a factor.


Levi said on his video that the trade winds were about the only thing going for the Alantic now. They are from the southeast instead of south this.
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Quoting 906. Patrap:
Fresh fried shrimp on a Nice big Sesame seed Bun, dressed..Lettuce and mayo, dash o cocktail sauce.

Tropics awakening..

Ahhh, "crunch'





Pat, that sounds good, think I'll run up to Lil Rays and order the same. Thanks. Good for blobwatchin'. ;)
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Quoting 914. Autistic2:


Where? MJO kinda weak, shear, SAL, dry air, trade winds, bust
Only thing I do not agree with, SAL is not a factor, maybe try looking at a map and trade winds right now arent bad. But ULL will always be a factor.
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Quoting 902. tkdaime:
looks like after a quiet august the atlantic is ready to produce hurricanes


Where? MJO kinda weak, shear, SAL, dry air, trade winds, bust so far
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Plenty of moisture around..





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Is there a LLC with 97L? Looks pretty good after going through DMIN, I thought it would have made it naked by now.
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Quoting 901. Autistic2:
I see we went from orange to yellow...Has there been a season with no canes?

1907 and 1914, though both were before we had satellite across the Atlantic. I doubt either went without a hurricane.
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910. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting 907. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1914 I believe


and 1907 ..
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Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:

97L
Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity:
North Carolina (19%) in 8.0 days
Cuba (18%) in 4.5 days
Canadian Maritimes (16%) in 8.7 days

Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity
Cuba (12%) in 4.5 days
North Carolina (11%) in 8.0 days
Puerto Rico (9%) in 55 hours

Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
Puerto Rico (4%) in 55 hours
Mexico (4%) in 7.1 days
Florida (4%) in 6.7 days


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16042
Quoting 903. wunderkidcayman:

Looks certainly like a closed eyewall

No it does NOT!
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Quoting 901. Autistic2:
I see we went from orange to yellow...Has there been a season with no canes?
1914 I believe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Fresh fried shrimp on a Nice big Sesame seed Bun, dressed..Lettuce and mayo, dash o cocktail sauce.

Tropics awakening..

Ahhh, "crunch'



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 860. wunderkidcayman:
got some hot water in the Caribbean more so in the W Caribbean

97L is going to have fun once it enters



It will never make it to the western Caribbean. The shear winds from the TUTT acroos the eastern Caribbean will tear up the system and it will likely dissipate in about 3-4 days. End of 97L.
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97L/INV/XX/XX
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting 900. Civicane49:

Looks certainly like a closed eyewall
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12540
looks like after a quiet august the atlantic is ready to produce hurricanes
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I see we went from orange to yellow...Has there been a season with no canes?
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Quoting 892. washingtonian115:


Good thing I had dinner before you posted that, otherwise I would be drooling right now.
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896. SLU
Quoting 895. JLPR2:


Yes I disregarded it, but I wonder what organization is Beven taking about... XD


For a moment I had to double check to see if he was talking about the right wave.
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895. JLPR2
Quoting 893. SLU:
Excerpt:

WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION


Like seriously??



Yes I disregarded it, but I wonder what organization is Beven taking about... XD
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Quoting 892. washingtonian115:


I'm hungry :)
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893. SLU
Excerpt:

WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION


Like seriously??

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Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17487


97L looking good.
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Quoting 857. wxchaser97:

I'm interested in Kiko. It's something to track during this lull in the tropics and it has strengthened more than it was supposed to.


I'm interested to see what Kiko's peak will be, especially after the storm winked at us with that eye earlier.
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889. JLPR2
Time to post the "everything looks scarier in it" satellite image. XD

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Anywhere 97L goes, it could be big trouble in the worst case scenario. If it head north of the Caribbean islands, There is almost no shear across the Bahamas and East Coast, the air is moist and sea temps are 27 to 30 C. In the Caribbean sea, shear is dropping and the anticyclone is getting stronger anyway, the air is moist as well (especially in the Western Caribbean), and the temps are just as hot and hotter in some areas. Like I said before, the issue for 97L may be land, not shear. If it misses the mountains of some of the islands or only crosses briefly, conditions look very conducive.
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 212
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 312342
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
COAST OF AFRICA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Ultra conservatives as usual....
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
000


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
COAST OF AFRICA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM
AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Ultra conservatives as usual....
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Bye guys see ya'lnl tomorrow.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This might be a system to watch once it gets in the western Caribbean in 4-5 days, if it isn't a developed system before then. The only impediment right now appears to be wind shear.




Tooting my own horn is frowned upon here,But earlier today I said watch the area South of 15.
Air piling up and whatnot. Broken clock is correct twice a day.
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Quoting 877. clwstmchasr:


You would if it showed it going into the NW Caribbean.

Just sayin...

no your not and if it was I still would not trust is as it is the first run
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12540
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
C and D.
B, they are too conservative, hope to be wrong though...
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Quoting 876. clwstmchasr:
BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

Now that is a huge vote of confidence.
Pray your boring season is about to end.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
97L looks much better today. Time will tell if this is another POOF or not.
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Thunder is rumbling, another wet night, will be interesting to see how this radar performs with a hurricane, actually I find it moving in real time, despite actually appearing slow.
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Quoting 843. GatorWX:


That's annular presentation.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3278
The TWO seems way too low... at least give it 20, 30. 30 40 and up may be the real number though...
Member Since: October 24, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 212
Quoting 869. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM KIKO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Bah.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 550
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DURING THE DAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DECREASING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST SLOWLY.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.


$$

DWROE
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Quoting 861. Bluestorm5:
Why so interested in trying to shame a person instead of that wave you just speak of... just saying
No shame.This is a public forum so I can make questions.Keep tracking 97L and forget thinking the wrong way.
Member Since: June 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1253
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM KIKO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FORM A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.