Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 953. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Mid-level relative humidity values are forecast to increase over the following days as Invest 97L tracks westward. Haven't seen that too much this season.

700-500 MB RH 52 55 56 55 55 58 60 61 61 63 61 63 63

Wind shear should continue to lower:

SHEAR (KT) 14 11 5 5 11 2 8 2 7 6 5 7 12

SSTs are a go:

SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3

Vertical instability is average:

TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 12 13

Liking the chances for this one if it doesn't develop quickly and get pulled north over the Greater Antilles.



that's not good with that light wind shear look for RI 97L could turn in two a moster storm with that set up
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Quoting 958. TropicalAnalystwx13:
LGEM is certainly excited...

V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 43 53 64 77 88 95
If it develops rapidly its going to crash into the G Antilles.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting 962. redwagon:


Yeah, whoops!! Isabel was 2003. Can't be having two I's on one season. Surprised I didn't type 2022.


I gave yas a gentle nudge..

..it's ez to mix those up, esp post 50
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 960. flcanes:
To think we were writing 97l off..
yeah it needs watching..waters are warm and no storms have been thru thru enough to cool things down.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
00z guidance has shifted a bit south.

The early intensity forecasts continue to go up...

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here's the GFS models..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting 938. Patrap:
Isidore 2002







Yeah, whoops!! Isabel was 2003. Can't be having two I's on one season. Surprised I didn't type 2022.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Quoting 930. redwagon:




This is Isabel 2002, with healthy 6 vorticities making up the eye... classic Annular.

2003
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To think we were writing 97l off..
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Quoting 951. Patrap:

Geez...
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LGEM is certainly excited...

V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 43 53 64 77 88 95
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
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Special Hazard Floater Imagery
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
AL, 96, 2013090100, , BEST, 0, 159N, 197W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mid-level relative humidity values are forecast to increase over the following days as Invest 97L tracks westward. Haven't seen that too much this season.

700-500 MB RH 52 55 56 55 55 58 60 61 61 63 61 63 63

Wind shear should continue to lower:

SHEAR (KT) 14 11 5 5 11 2 8 2 7 6 5 7 12

SSTs are a go:

SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3

Vertical instability is average:

TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 12 13

Liking the chances for this one if it doesn't develop quickly and get pulled north over the Greater Antilles.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32858
Quoting 951. Patrap:
yep this one needs watching alright..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
97L ramping up pretty quickly..

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 930. redwagon:




This is Isabel 2002, with healthy 6 vorticities making up the eye... classic Annular.
Isabel was in 2003;)
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Quoting 899. nrtiwlnvragn:


Steering is a bit precarious if it doesn't get going soon imo. Shall I say, 2004-esque?
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
bad storms on the east coast......................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

FLZ041-044>046-141-010130-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SMALL HAIL OVER EASTERN LAKE COUNTY...ORANGE COUNTY...SEMINOLE
COUNTY...CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT.

AT 753 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
OVER ORANGE...SEMINOLE...AND NORTH LAKE COUNTIES...MOVING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MID EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2906 8093 2879 8094 2879 8097 2861 8097
2860 8095 2835 8097 2835 8146 2879 8158
2927 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 198DEG 13KT 2883 8118

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting 936. RascalNag:


Looks like a scenario like that would cause a fujiwhara interaction going up the East Coast.
yes things just might get interesting next week..those waters down there are really warm now.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
943. SLU
31/2345 UTC 15.4N 54.9W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic
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Quoting 934. flcanes:

Get that away from there!
you know all week long the Gem has had this track and now a week later its slowly being verified..im watching this one and see if it does..if that storm builds under the islands then moves up along the east coast then the GEM has come of age in my book..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Peak at 77kts.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC SUN SEP 1 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130901 0000 130901 1200 130902 0000 130902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 56.9W 15.2N 59.2W 15.3N 61.2W 15.2N 63.2W
BAMD 15.0N 56.9W 15.1N 58.6W 15.2N 60.3W 15.0N 61.7W
BAMM 15.0N 56.9W 14.9N 58.9W 14.7N 60.7W 14.4N 62.3W
LBAR 15.0N 56.9W 15.3N 59.3W 15.6N 61.7W 15.7N 64.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130903 0000 130904 0000 130905 0000 130906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 64.9W 15.9N 68.7W 17.7N 73.1W 19.9N 77.9W
BAMD 15.0N 63.2W 15.7N 66.6W 18.0N 70.7W 20.6N 74.4W
BAMM 14.3N 63.9W 14.7N 67.2W 16.6N 71.4W 18.8N 75.8W
LBAR 15.8N 66.4W 16.7N 71.2W 19.5N 75.2W 23.2N 78.0W
SHIP 42KTS 57KTS 69KTS 77KTS
DSHP 42KTS 57KTS 69KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 56.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 51.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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940. SLU
Quoting 923. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 97L.

AL, 97, 2013090100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 569W, 25, 1009, DB


For some strange reason, the NHC has been about a whole degree too far west with the center.

I believe it's right near the smaller burst of convection.

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Up to 55 knots.

EP, 11, 2013090100, , BEST, 0, 197N, 1159W, 55, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KIKO, D,
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Isidore 2002





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting 920. stormpetrol:
Well we just took a good soaking, even with my windows screwed down tightly , rain managed to seep through!


Just drove from GT to Savannah,wipers on high could barely see a car length ahead!!!
SP
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Quoting 931. LargoFl:
lets see whats going on next weekend.....


Looks like a scenario like that would cause a fujiwhara interaction going up the East Coast.
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Quoting 930. redwagon:




This is Isabel 2002, with healthy 6 vorticities making up the eye... classic Annular.


One of the best looking canes I've seen!
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Quoting 931. LargoFl:
lets see whats going on next weekend.....

Get that away from there!
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Blowup over the center and beginning to consolidate, so it seems. It could make a little run tonight if it holds up. In the last few frames of vis, it appears a closed surface low is evident. Could be interesting in the morning when we wake up.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3798
Quoting 916. moonlightcowboy:


Pat, that sounds good, think I'll run up to Lil Rays and order the same. Thanks. Good for blobwatchin'. ;)


Oooh, I'm member when Lil Rays and Trapanis was my routine.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
lets see whats going on next weekend.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting 916. moonlightcowboy:


Pat, that sounds good, think I'll run up to Lil Rays and order the same. Thanks. Good for blobwatchin'. ;)




This is Isabel 2002, with healthy 6 vorticities making up the eye... classic Annular.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Climatology is King, come Sept 6, we will some spinners to track and digest.


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EMUETSAT Dust analysis..
Different angle than the TAU..
Light pinks and blue are drier air, dust...



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Quoting 909. ncstorm:
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:

97L
Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity:
North Carolina (19%) in 8.0 days
Cuba (18%) in 4.5 days
Canadian Maritimes (16%) in 8.7 days

Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity
Cuba (12%) in 4.5 days
North Carolina (11%) in 8.0 days
Puerto Rico (9%) in 55 hours

Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
Puerto Rico (4%) in 55 hours
Mexico (4%) in 7.1 days
Florida (4%) in 6.7 days




do you think New England could get involved in this been waiting for a big hurricane all my life.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting 911. TropicalAnalystwx13:

1907 and 1914, though both were before we had satellite across the Atlantic. I doubt either went without a hurricane.
I am almost 99% that they were at least 4 storms in the 1914 AHS maybe the rest in the EATL.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting 918. Tropicsweatherpr:
If 97L gets to the Western Caribbean,there will be plenty of fuel to help it.


Most certainly

Quoting 920. stormpetrol:
Well we just took a good soaking, even with my windows screwed down tightly , rain managed to seep through!


Yeah it's getting really bad up here in west bay
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
00z Best Track for 97L.

AL, 97, 2013090100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 569W, 25, 1009, DB
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Quoting 918. Tropicsweatherpr:
If 97L gets to the Western Caribbean,there will be plenty of fuel to help it.


I hate to say it, but...
Rocket Fuel + plus rocket=......
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Well we just took a good soaking, even with my windows screwed down tightly , rain managed to seep through!
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Quoting 908. interpreter:

No it does NOT!




yes it dos you no nothing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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