Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1019. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 1013. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Naturally?


You'll be hard pressed to find a first run of the HWRF/GFDL that isn't pessimistic.

Throw them out until we get a named system, imo. Even that's iffy right now.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24477
1017. LargoFl
Nam still has it going Wens.................
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Quoting 996. luvtogolf:


I thought you said earlier to that Clw guy that you were throwing the models out when it said Bahamas. So now you are going with them because they are saying Caribbean?

Lol I'm not taking it because of that I taking it because it the next run even so I ain't buying it as much neither are best bets is when we got USAF RECON as well as NASA and NOAA RECON flying in to the system the data will then be put into the models then things will make more sense

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12473
Quoting 1010. CybrTeddy:
HWRF and GFDL naturally kill off 97L.
ARE YOU SAYING INVEST 97L is going to die out in a few days from now
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1014. GatorWX
A glass of Cotes du Rhone, my dog beside me and two of my favorite things to watch in front of me, the tropics and the SEC. It's a good night!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3783
Quoting 1010. CybrTeddy:
HWRF and GFDL naturally kill off 97L.

Naturally?
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1012. LargoFl
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Quoting 1003. JrWeathermanFL:
Name that sounds threatening? Lorenzo.
If we ever get there -__-

Oh we will
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HWRF and GFDL naturally kill off 97L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24477
1009. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1008. AztecCe
Quoting 982. RascalNag:
It's a bit early to start this, but I can't help myself:

What do you guys think the peak intensity of 97L will turn out to be?

A: Current intensity
B: TD
C: 35 - 50 kt TS
D: >50kt TS
E: Cat 1
F: Cat 2
G: CMC model run from a few days ago.

I'm choosing E for now.

C
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1007. ncstorm
I see nothing developing on these runs?

18z GFDL last frame


18z HWRF.
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Quoting 1003. JrWeathermanFL:
Name that sounds threatening? Lorenzo.
If we ever get there -__-


xd
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6423
So NO RAIN from 97L... what a year... I HATE 2013.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6423
1004. LargoFl
Strong storms coming into Daytona..strong warning out for that storm...
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Name that sounds threatening? Lorenzo.
If we ever get there -__-
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1002. GatorWX
Quoting 998. LargoFl:
yes florida needs to watch this one..days and days away yet..good time to review plans etc...


;)
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3783
1001. Skyepony (Mod)
HWRF & GFDL initialized 97L good on that 18z run. Most early track models failed hard.
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1000. GatorWX
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3783
Quoting 931. LargoFl:
lets see whats going on next weekend.....


what presure is it over the Bahamas?
Member Since: August 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
Quoting 988. ncstorm:
latest ensembles for the Navgem for 97L

yes florida needs to watch this one..days and days away yet..good time to review plans etc...
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nhc is way too conservative this storm will be gabrielle if it forms and that name sounds like a bad one
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Quoting 984. wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys sorry conditions are getting bad up here and my Internet cut out anyway my last post that was lost during the Internet cut



= a big nuclear bomb



Hmm that's S of Due W

Last was 151N 555W

And pressure is higher by 1mb

Last was 1008mb


And models shifted further S and W so looks like no Bahamas storm and yes Caribbean storm


I thought you said earlier to that Clw guy that you were throwing the models out when it said Bahamas. So now you are going with them because they are saying Caribbean?
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Depth of 26C Isotherm

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
I have to respectfully disagree with the 00z coordinates. They've been too far west since 6z or so...

Even with the bogus vortex location, the intensity models still like 97L
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Quoting 978. kmanislander:


Those coordinates look suspiciously like a center reformation as the NHC is way to the West at about 57 now.


Looks about 55.8 give or take to me.

Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3783
I haven't written 97L since it came off the coast.
Surely won't now.
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Quoting 986. redwagon:


I'm stunned by the prescribed intensification.


The TCHP is untapped basically.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Not sure if anyone mentioned it, but the latest vorticity map showed things starting to pick up the 500mb level. Also, the anticyclone is still getting stronger
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2152 IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
latest ensembles for the Navgem for 97L

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Quoting 949. pcola57:
97L ramping up pretty quickly..



Don't expect much. The NHC doesn't think it won't have a chance to develop for 4-5 days.
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Quoting 966. Patrap:


I gave yas a gentle nudge..

..it's ez to mix those up, esp post 50


I'm stunned by the prescribed intensification.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Hey guys sorry conditions are getting bad up here and my Internet cut out anyway my last post that was lost during the Internet cut

Quoting 921. flcanes:

I hate to say it, but...
Rocket Fuel + plus rocket=......


= a big nuclear bomb

Quoting 923. Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 97L.

AL, 97, 2013090100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 569W, 25, 1009, DB


Hmm that's S of Due W

Last was 151N 555W

And pressure is higher by 1mb

Last was 1008mb


And models shifted further S and W so looks like no Bahamas storm and yes Caribbean storm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12473
Quoting 976. sar2401:

Until it actually has an LLC, watch the BAMS. That's going to give you your best track for a shallow, disorganized system like 97L. Even though there is an impressive amount of thunderstorms, they keep dying and reforming, and I see no evidence of a low yet.
thanks yes this one needs to be watched for awhile...
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It's a bit early to start this, but I can't help myself:

What do you guys think the peak intensity of 97L will turn out to be?

A: Current intensity
B: TD
C: 35 - 50 kt TS
D: >50kt TS
E: Cat 1
F: Cat 2
G: CMC model run from a few days ago.

I'm choosing E for now.
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97L is a glider if it stays weak and west for now.

Interesting.

Right down US 15 North

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 937. superpete:


Just drove from GT to Savannah,wipers on high could barely see a car length ahead!!!
SP


I can certainly believe that, I've actually had to pull off the road a few days back.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8017
00z
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Quoting 943. SLU:
31/2345 UTC 15.4N 54.9W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic


Those coordinates look suspiciously like a center reformation as the NHC is way to the West at about 57 now.
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977. MahFL
Note the white spot. It's since warmed though.

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Quoting LargoFl:
you know all week long the Gem has had this track and now a week later its slowly being verified..im watching this one and see if it does..if that storm builds under the islands then moves up along the east coast then the GEM has come of age in my book..

Until it actually has an LLC, watch the BAMS. That's going to give you your best track for a shallow, disorganized system like 97L. Even though there is an impressive amount of thunderstorms, they keep dying and reforming, and I see no evidence of a low yet.
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Work to be done!




Much improved from 12 hours ago though, much improved.
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3783
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97L may be are 1st real storm of the season
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972. MahFL
Some very cold cloud tops on 97L, you don't see that very often.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting 964. Stormchaser2007:
00z guidance has shifted a bit south.

The early intensity forecasts continue to go up...




not good
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.