Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 1063. pcola57:
Anyone from the Cayman Islands on right now?
Confirmed funnel/waterspout..

Current Weather Conditions:
Gerrard Smith Intl. / Cayman Brac, Cayman Islands

2013.09.01 0000 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Thunder
Funnel cloud (tornado or waterspout)
Showers in the vicinity

Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 99.3 F (37.4 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob MWCB 010000Z 10004KT 9999 TS FC VCSH BKN016CB 30/26 Q1013


Here

Yes tornados and waterspout are not uncommon here though less likely for tornados because of the small land masses
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11111
1068. GatorWX
Quoting 1061. Patrap:


Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded.


I think that one surprised people as much as when Katrina came in through Miami. I'll never forget Cantore standing outside that hotel down south.
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1067. pau143
hi all

heading to biloxi,miss. for week sept 9 to 14th any long range models looking bad for me? trying my luck at the casinos, whats my luck for hurricanes??
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Hurricane Forecast Computer Models
By Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology
The behavior of the atmosphere is governed by physical laws which can
be expressed as mathematical equations. These equations represent how
atmospheric quantities such as temperature, wind speed and direction,
humidity, etc., will change from their initial current values (at the
present time). If we can solve these equations, we will have a forecast.
We can do this by sub-dividing the atmosphere into a 3-D grid of points
and solving these equations at each point. These models have three main
sources of error:
1) Initialization: We have an imperfect
description of what the atmosphere is doing right now, due to lack of
data (particularly over the oceans). When the model starts, is has an
incorrect picture of the initial state of the atmosphere, so will always
generate a forecast that is imperfect.
2) Resolution: Models are run on 3-D grids
that cover the entire globe. Each grid point represents of piece of
atmosphere perhaps 40 km on a side. Thus, processes smaller than that
(such as thunderstorms) are not handled well, and must be
"parameterized". This means we make up parameters (fudge factors) that
do a good job giving the right forecast most of the time. Obviously, the
fudge factors aren't going to work for all situations.
3) Basic understanding: Our basic understanding of the physics governing the atmosphere is imperfect, so the equations we're using aren't quite right.
Does anyone know when the equations were written?  
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1065. beell
At the time of the Gulfstream flight, it appears the axis of lowest pressure was along 55W, between 13 and 15N. 200-850 mb wind shear was fairly strong along the northern edge of the pattern and falling off quite a bit along the southern edge.

If anyone wants to try their hand at manual contouring,
top to bottom numbers are 700 mb, 500mb heights, and surface pressure.


(click for full image)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16243
1064. sar2401
Quoting GatorWX:


It was so quiet back in those days! I came around after Katrina. What a difference. Most of the pro's went elsewhere.

Yep, folks can look at the archives from 2005 and see that breaking 1,000, even with Katrina, was a big deal. Now we break 1,000 arguing about AGW. I do think most of the pros you speak of either went to the NWS or are still pros in their own minds.
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1063. pcola57
Anyone from the Cayman Islands on right now?
Confirmed funnel/waterspout..

NWS
Current Weather Conditions:
Gerrard Smith Intl. / Cayman Brac, Cayman Islands

2013.09.01 0000 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Thunder
Funnel cloud (tornado or waterspout)
Showers in the vicinity

Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 99.3 F (37.4 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob MWCB 010000Z 10004KT 9999 TS FC VCSH BKN016CB 30/26 Q1013
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Quoting 1024. stormpetrol:
I said from 2 days ago, I thought 97L might be the real deal and first hurricane of the season.
Don't Jynx it.
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1061. Patrap
Quoting 1054. GatorWX:


True, true, the forgotten one (by some). That's the one they upped afterward, right?


Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
97L is looking a lot better tonight than 96L

anyway, running on empty. night all.
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Pat, thanks for recommending the shrimp po-boy. Lil Rays' hard to beat. I'm stuffed. I don't get to Trapani's too much, but I owe them a visit. They've a great new place built back where the old location was wiped clean.

Y'all, I'm thinking we're seeing the easterly flow slow and the steering get a bit weaker, and those low level westerlies will continue to wrap into a slower-moving system. I'm looking for those inflows to increase vorticity and we'll start seeing convection really begin to pop overhead.

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1057. GatorWX
Looking after all that funny business in the troposphere.
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Im wishcasating now GO 97L
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1055. sar2401
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You'll be hard pressed to find a first run of the HWRF/GFDL that isn't pessimistic.

Throw them out until we get a named system, imo. Even that's iffy right now.

Or a first run of the LGEM that doesn't want to make it a cat2. :-) Really, for folks who aren't familiar with intensity models, especially when there's no actual storm yet, any of the early models have about the same chance of being right as you going into casino and hitting the jackpot on your first pull of the handle.
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1054. GatorWX
Quoting 1044. Patrap:


Dis un was missing Cindy, July 05

So Im editing it fer, er, the archives here.


Hurricane Cindy on July 5, 2005, at 1745 UTC
Formed July 3, 2005
Dissipated July 7, 2005
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
75 mph (120 km/h)
Lowest pressure 991 mbar (hPa); 29.26 inHg
Fatalities 1 direct, 4 indirect
Damage $320 million (2005 USD)
Areas affected Yucatán Peninsula, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana
Part of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season

See also: Hurricane Cindy (2005) tornado outbreak
Five deaths were attributed to Cindy, none of them near the storm's landfall. Two people were killed in Georgia, one in Alabama,[1] and two in Maryland.[10] Approximately 300,000 homes and businesses in southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast lost electrical power and a storm surge of 4–6 feet (1.2-1.8 m) affected the same area, causing some beach erosion near Grand Isle, Louisiana. Hurricane Cindy's total damage was estimated to be US$320 million.[1]

In New Orleans, Louisiana, wind gusts reached 70 mph (110 km/h), many trees were damaged or uprooted[7] and scattered street flooding was reported. As thousands lost electrical power, the city experienced its worst blackout since Hurricane Betsy 40 years earlier. Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded.[11][12] Many people in the New Orleans metropolitan area expected minimal effects from the storm, but were cleaning up debris and were without power for days after Cindy's passage.[13][14] In Louisiana, 260,000 residences were left without power.[15]


True, true, the forgotten one (by some). That's the one they upped afterward, right?
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If convection persists, maybe SAB will rate 97L next cycle.


TXNT28 KNES 010012
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 31/2345Z

C. 15.4N

D. 54.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BECAUSE
CONVECTION...WHILE CURRENTLY MEASURABLE...HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. UNSURE
IF CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
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1052. Patrap
Quoting 1040. redwagon:


Loathe to say it, but this might be yours. The only TX analog I can find to this just doesn't fit the M.O.

This is one of those storms that should be HAARPd in the bud.. if we really CAN do that.


HAARP was good urban myth, plus it was defunded this year and shut down.

Published on Jul 16, 2013

The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) %u2014 a subject of fascination for many hams and the target of conspiracy theorists and anti-government activists %u2014 has closed down. HAARP's program manager, Dr James Keeney at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, told ARRL that the sprawling 35-acre ionospheric research facility in remote Gakona, Alaska, has been shuttered since early May.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting 1045. stormpetrol:
97L has taken a WSW dive for now actually avoiding the highest shear in its path, this could be one to really watch and not let your guard down.

The guard has never been so high lol

So how it things up on you side of the island
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11111
1050. SLU
Quoting 994. Stormchaser2007:
I have to respectfully disagree with the 00z coordinates. They've been too far west since 6z or so...

Even with the bogus vortex location, the intensity models still like 97L


Same thing I said. The circulation is elongated east/west so they probably took the mean position.

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1049. GatorWX
Quoting 1045. stormpetrol:
97L has taken a WSW dive for now actually avoiding the highest shear in its path, this could be one to really watch and not let your guard down.


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@1031:
Woah hold up a minute, I never realized this...
Frances looked like that on September 1st and we've already gotten to F and people are writing off this season?
If this was 2004, we'd still have Ivan and Jeanne to go.
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1047. LargoFl
well thats it for me..good night folks............
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1046. GatorWX
Quoting 1039. Tazmanian:



this think what this blog would be like if we had all them hurricanes all line up at one time


It was so quiet back in those days! I came around after Katrina. What a difference. Most of the pro's went elsewhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
97L has taken a WSW dive for now actually avoiding the highest shear in its path, this could be one to really watch and not let your guard down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1044. Patrap


Dis un was missing Cindy, July 05

So Im editing it fer, er, the archives here.


Hurricane Cindy on July 5, 2005, at 1745 UTC
Formed July 3, 2005
Dissipated July 7, 2005
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
75 mph (120 km/h)
Lowest pressure 991 mbar (hPa); 29.26 inHg
Fatalities 1 direct, 4 indirect
Damage $320 million (2005 USD)
Areas affected Yucatán Peninsula, North Carolina, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana
Part of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season

See also: Hurricane Cindy (2005) tornado outbreak
Five deaths were attributed to Cindy, none of them near the storm's landfall. Two people were killed in Georgia, one in Alabama,[1] and two in Maryland.[10] Approximately 300,000 homes and businesses in southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast lost electrical power and a storm surge of 4–6 feet (1.2-1.8 m) affected the same area, causing some beach erosion near Grand Isle, Louisiana. Hurricane Cindy's total damage was estimated to be US$320 million.[1]

In New Orleans, Louisiana, wind gusts reached 70 mph (110 km/h), many trees were damaged or uprooted[7] and scattered street flooding was reported. As thousands lost electrical power, the city experienced its worst blackout since Hurricane Betsy 40 years earlier. Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded.[11][12] Many people in the New Orleans metropolitan area expected minimal effects from the storm, but were cleaning up debris and were without power for days after Cindy's passage.[13][14] In Louisiana, 260,000 residences were left without power.[15]
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592

Quoting 1033. BrandenCordeiro:


how reliable are these models?

reliable? from what i seen, 2-3 days
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If convection persists, maybe SAB will rate 97L next cycle.


TXNT28 KNES 010012
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 31/2345Z

C. 15.4N

D. 54.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BECAUSE
CONVECTION...WHILE CURRENTLY MEASURABLE...HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. UNSURE
IF CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXISTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As DMIN past a couple of hours ago and the overnight hours approach 97L is firing some of its coldest cloud tops in its life cycle over the Atlantic.



It still lacks a mid level low. But as DMAX and more convection rebuilds things could get going much faster than anticipated.
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Quoting 1023. Patrap:
Gonzo flew a long duration sonde drop flight right around and in 97L today.





WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 30 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. ATLANTIC WAVE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 31/1600Z
B. NOAA9 01XXA WAVE
C. 31/1300Z
D. 15.0N 56.0W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/2000Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.




Loathe to say it, but this might be yours. The only TX analog I can find to this just doesn't fit the M.O.

This is one of those storms that should be HAARPd in the bud.. if we really CAN do that.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3175
Quoting 1031. GatorWX:



Crazy couple years!



this think what this blog would be like if we had all them hurricanes all line up at one time
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Still 3 months left to the Season and even Dec had some late bloomers , just sayin....
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1037. GatorWX
This should keep your busy til your storm comes.

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1036. LargoFl
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We'll see what happens the rest of the season but it's hard to believe it's going to be September 1st and we haven't gotten a decent whirl spin up yet. Our 6 storms so far have been sad trombones.
.

.
It's too bad, so sad.
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1034. LargoFl
Quoting 1033. BrandenCordeiro:


how reliable are these models?

I know intensity forecasts still suck which is why I take intensity forecasts with a grain of salt.
yes we watch wait and see what happens,this one may be around for awhile...
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Quoting 1026. LargoFl:
wow............


how reliable are these models?

I know intensity forecasts still suck which is why I take intensity forecasts with a grain of salt.
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Quoting 1029. wunderkidcayman:

You and I both


That is correct!
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1031. GatorWX



Crazy couple years!
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I hate small systems! 97L was better this AM when convection covered a LARGER AREA! Now we would only get HIGH CLOUDS! BORING!
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5964
Quoting 1024. stormpetrol:
I said from 2 days ago, I thought 97L might be the real deal and first hurricane of the season.

You and I both
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11111
HWFI is pathetic
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5964
1027. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
9:00 AM JST September 1 2013
==============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression North Of Yaeyama Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 25.1N 122.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 26.5N 124.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Miyako Island
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44779
1026. LargoFl
wow............
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Quoting 1010. CybrTeddy:
HWRF and GFDL naturally kill off 97L.


Why you say naturally?

Edit. Saw your answer above.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14041
I said from 2 days ago, I thought 97L might be the real deal and first hurricane of the season.
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1023. Patrap
Gonzo flew a long duration sonde drop flight right around and in 97L today.





WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 30 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-090

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. ATLANTIC WAVE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. 31/1600Z
B. NOAA9 01XXA WAVE
C. 31/1300Z
D. 15.0N 56.0W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/2000Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting 1008. AztecCe:

C


A-
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1021. LargoFl
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Quoting 1013. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Naturally?
artifically
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1019. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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