Rains From Invest 96L Kill 55 in Mali

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:40 PM GMT on August 31, 2013

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A tropical wave that emerged from the coast of Africa on Friday (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is struggling against high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The shear is expected to drop to the moderate level on Sunday, then increase again to the high level on Monday through Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 40%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. Our reliable models for tropical cyclone genesis show little or no development of 96L. This disturbance is unlikely to affect any land areas except the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 96L off the coast of Africa, taken at 8:30 am EDT on August 31, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance 96L moved very slowly across the Sahel region of Africa during the week, dumping torrential rains on Wednesday that triggered flash floods that killed at least 55 people in Mali's capital city, Bamako. Serious flooding also affected neighboring Burkina Faso, Gambia, Guinea, Niger and Senegal. Buildings have collapsed, roads have been rendered impassable, and valuable farmland is submerged beneath flood water, affecting over 200,000 people. More than 100 homes were swept away as the Niger River burst its banks, bringing down bridges and submerging entire streets.


Figure 2. People hold a rope to help rescuers climbing down a roof of a house in a flooded area of Bamako, Mail, on August 28, 2013. At least 55 people have been killed in flash floods caused by torrential rain. Image credit: HABIBOU KOUYATE/AFP/Getty Images)


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of tropical wave 96L over Mali on August 28, 2013. The storm dumped torrential rains on Mali's capital city, Bamako, which killed at least 55 people. Image credit: NASA.

Disturbance approaching Lesser Antilles no immediate threat to develop
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past three days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 10%, and the 2-day odds at 0%. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the system, and is expected to stay high through Monday. An area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds the disturbance and is interfering with development. Wind shear may fall to the moderate level in 4 - 5 days when the wave reaches the Central Caribbean, increasing the odds of development then. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression south of Haiti on Thursday. The wave will spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1119. ryang
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

KIKO IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE. MICROWAVE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER CORE...AND EVEN THE LAST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITHIN A MORE
SYMMETRICAL CDO. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT...A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
KEEPING UP WITH THIS CYCLONE. THE PACE OF STRENGTHENING SHOULD
DIMINISH SOON AS KIKO IS MOVING ACROSS COOLING WATERS...AND WILL BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 12-24H. AFTER THAT TIME...A MORE
STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

KIKO HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY MOVING A BIT EAST OF NORTH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...010/6. IT APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST
SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A NOTABLE SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 30-45 NMI AT MOST TIME
PERIODS ON THIS PACKAGE. IN 36-48H...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
DECOUPLE VERTICALLY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS IN LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 20.0N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 21.6N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 22.3N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167


I personally think 97L has a closed circulation.
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From tonight's San Juan AFD.

FEATURE OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE WWD NEXT SVRL DAYS BRINGING A BIG SLUG MOISTURE OVER PR
TUE AND WED. CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFES ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA
INDICATING MOST ACTIVE WX TUE AND WED AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DISCREPANCIES AND INCONSISTENCIES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14883
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

...KIKO CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 115.8W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting 1106. stormpetrol:


Without criticizing the NHC, they simply hang their hats on models just a little too much for my liking! That being said overall they do a good job and service! Just need some good old fashioned forecasting IMHO.


Many of the new Meteorologist have lost the six sense (THE GUT FEELING)
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
1113. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129767
Quoting 1104. Patrap:
The Rainbow Eye Look



It would not surprise me to see multiple vortices in this circ as the westerlies try to wrap into the system. As convection builds though, those are likely to thin out and give way to a more dominate coc. Key now is just to keep building convection, get some lower pressures and some surface lift.
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Quoting 1093. nrtiwlnvragn:
ASCAT just caught the western edge of some cyclonic turning












Link


Most of the surface convergence of earlier today which indicated a closed low disappeared when the convection faded around Dmin. 97L will have to work overnight to reestablish itself at the surface. It now appears to be just a wave and even though the convection has refired most of the rotation is now at the 850 mb level .

1500 UTC today



Current

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Quoting 1106. stormpetrol:


Without criticizing the NHC, they simply hang their hats on models just a little too much for my liking! That being said overall they do a good job and service! Just need some good old fashioned forecasting IMHO.


Although I will say 97L looks quite elongated at this time. Perhaps NHC sees this and thinks it will need more time consolidating.
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Quoting 1097. yankees440:
Look guys..There's got to be a good reason the NHC has 97L only at 10% on 48hrs and 20% on 5 days. I'm more curious as to why they are giving it such low chances of developing within the next 5 days.. In addition, most of the respectable models (well not so much this year so far) don't really even develop 97L. Perhaps someone knowledgeable can shed some light on the NHC's perspective?


NHC has been very conservative, and rightfully so this year. For 97L they have been very conservative and are wrong ever so much. Shear tendency has changed and their percentages should change with the conditions and organization changing too. Tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon 97L will be 30% and 50 or 60% for five day respectfully; if not higher.
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Since I haven't seen any mention, I'm assuming that "area" below Cuba is nada....
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Wind speed has increase acording to the buoy to the WNW of 97L
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
Quoting 1097. yankees440:
Look guys..There's got to be a good reason the NHC has 97L only at 10% on 48hrs and 20% on 5 days. I'm more curious as to why they are giving it such low chances of developing within the next 5 days.. In addition, most of the respectable models (well not so much this year so far) don't really even develop 97L. Perhaps someone knowledgeable can shed some light on the NHC's perspective?


Without criticizing the NHC, they simply hang their hats on models just a little too much for my liking! That being said overall they do a good job and service! Just need some good old fashioned forecasting IMHO.
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Quoting 1104. Patrap:
The Rainbow Eye Look



Reminds me of when ex-Dorian looked like a donut SE of Florida.
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1104. Patrap
The Rainbow Eye Look

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129767
1103. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
NAME 1316 YUTU

FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 020000UTC 33.1N 177.6E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 030000UTC 33.3N 179.0E WITHIN 125NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
72HR
POSITION 040000UTC 33.4N 178.4E WITHIN 175NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
96HR
POSITION 050000UTC 33.6N 179.3E WITHIN 250NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
120HR
POSITION 060000UTC 33.9N 179.6E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT

KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


---
Korea may have made a mistake...
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1102. beell
Quoting 1093. nrtiwlnvragn:
ASCAT just caught the western edge of some cyclonic turning












Link


Some light west winds in the lowest 150 m along 12N from Gonzo as well.
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1101. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129767
Quoting 1093. nrtiwlnvragn:
ASCAT just caught the western edge of some cyclonic turning












Link

Very very far S too
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
The Rim Fire near Yosemite is now up to 222,777 acres (348 square miles). It leapfrogged over the 1932 Matilija fire today to take possession of fourth place on the list of largest California fires ever.

The first-, second-, and third-place fires are as follows:

3) Zaca (2007): 240,207 acres
2) Rush (2012): 271,911
1) Cedar (2003): 273,246

My guess is that, unless something changes dramatically, the Rim will move past the Zaca fire and into third place on or before Monday. Even though the weather is expected to turn drier again next week (though, thankfully, cooler), I doubt whether the blaze can grow by another 23% or so and into second or first. Then again, you never know...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13790
Look guys..There's got to be a good reason the NHC has 97L only at 10% on 48hrs and 20% on 5 days. I'm more curious as to why they are giving it such low chances of developing within the next 5 days.. In addition, most of the respectable models (well not so much this year so far) don't really even develop 97L. Perhaps someone knowledgeable can shed some light on the NHC's perspective?
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Quoting 1088. WoodyFL:


97L's models are kinked.. not smoothed like 96's and most we see. What does that mean.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
1095. pcola57
Navy 97L GEO 1Km Zoomed..

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Quoting 1061. Patrap:


Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded.
Evening er'body! I remember listening to WWL radio that night and a guy from Chalmette called to say he had just put up a 6'wood fence and he tried to save it from the wind by tying a rope to it but...it got away from him and was flattened. He said, "if this is a tropical storm, God help us if a big one hits!" .... prophetic in hindsight.
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ASCAT just caught the western edge of some cyclonic turning












Link
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97L is passing by buoy's 41040 and 41060 and nearing 41101 might want to check and see if any wind shift is occurring.

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1091. whitewabit (Mod)
Atka, Alaska getting shook pretty good since they had a 7.0 earthquake earlier this week .. 23 after shocks have occurred since then with most of them being above 4.5 ..
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1090. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Noticed that on the plot of UKMET Office tracks, thinking wait a minute thats going the wrong way......




Yup, Yutu has forecast models heading it towards Alaska
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1089. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


I believe the only CPAC storm in 2010 came from a subtropical storm in the WPAC.


yup. just looked at the information data on tropical storm Omeka.
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1088. WoodyFL
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Quoting 1076. HadesGodWyvern:
Ooh.. ah.. don't often get cyclones that are forecast to move into the central pacific as a tropical storm..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM YUTU (T1316)
9:00 AM JST September 1 2013
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Name Cyclone In Midway Island Waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Yutu (1002 hPa) located at 32.5N 176.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 33.2N 177.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
48 HRS: 33.7N 179.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
72 HRS: 33.6N 178.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters


Noticed that on the plot of UKMET Office tracks, thinking wait a minute thats going the wrong way......


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Experimental FIM-9 shows nothing from 97L. :/

Link
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Quoting 1061. Patrap:


Although still listed as a "Tropical Storm" by the weather service at the time, many laypeople in New Orleans were under the impression that Cindy was a hurricane, and referred to it as "Hurricane Cindy" before it was officially upgraded.


I posted this 03 Isabel a while back.. I was thinking, flying into an Annular is a whole different risk for the HHS.. what with 6 center vortexes. You couldn't punch into the eyewall; you'd have to just survey from above as low as you could go.

Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3280
Quoting 1075. pcola57:


Keep your head down wunderkid..!! :)

Lol

And also the tornados that we do get hardly get past EF 0 maybe EF1 but that's it
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Quoting 1073. AussieStorm:
Keelung Badouzi mudslide HOLY S***

embed src="//www.youtube.com/v/T-V5W0-lj-A?version=3& ;hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"





As many times as I have watched that video today,this is the first time that I realized it wasnt the cautious abilities of the driver that saved him,it was the giant splash that washed him to the side and changed his forward motion.
Amazing luck !
Member Since: March 22, 2009 Posts: 43 Comments: 2064
Quoting 1078. scott39:
After taking a closer look at the shear maps, 20nt wind shear is ruling the Caribbean for now. Im not saying 97L wont develope, because wind shear is a challenge to forecast. It could stay an open wave and develope in the Western Caribbean. The entire GOM for the exception of a few spots is 5nts of wind shear! If it does develope in the Caribbean and heads into the GOM with that low of wind shear and favorable conditions. We could have a dangerous TC on our hands. Or it could be dust in the wind soon. September delivers the the best atmosphere for a viral wave. I dont like them!
u do not know that because the wind shear in the Caribbean is going down soon!
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1081. GatorWX
Quoting 1067. pau143:
hi all

heading to biloxi,miss. for week sept 9 to 14th any long range models looking bad for me? trying my luck at the casinos, whats my luck for hurricanes??


For a major 3%, for a hurricane 10%, in any given year.

Hurricane probabilities for the continental USA
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1080. flsky
Quoting 1060. Chicklit:
97L is looking a lot better tonight than 96L

anyway, running on empty. night all.

Chicklit - are you getting some rain tonight? Lots of thunder and lightning on this side of the inlet, but rain has been very light.
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Quoting 1076. HadesGodWyvern:
Ooh.. ah.. don't often get cyclones that are forecast to move into the central pacific as a tropical storm..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM YUTU (T1316)
9:00 AM JST September 1 2013
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Name Cyclone In Midway Island Waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Yutu (1002 hPa) located at 32.5N 176.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 33.2N 177.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
48 HRS: 33.7N 179.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
72 HRS: 33.6N 178.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters


I believe the only CPAC storm in 2010 came from a subtropical storm in the WPAC.
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1078. scott39
After taking a closer look at the shear maps, 20nt wind shear is ruling the Caribbean for now. Im not saying 97L wont develope, because wind shear is a challenge to forecast. It could stay an open wave and develope in the Western Caribbean. The entire GOM for the exception of a few spots is 5nts of wind shear! If it does develope in the Caribbean and heads into the GOM with that low of wind shear and favorable conditions. We could have a dangerous TC on our hands. Or it could be dust in the wind soon. September delivers the the best atmosphere for a viral wave. I dont like them!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting 1019. Patrap:


Georges was a nasty storm.
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1076. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Ooh.. ah.. don't often get cyclones that are forecast to move into the central pacific as a tropical storm..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM YUTU (T1316)
9:00 AM JST September 1 2013
==============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Name Cyclone In Midway Island Waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Yutu (1002 hPa) located at 32.5N 176.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 33.2N 177.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
48 HRS: 33.7N 179.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
72 HRS: 33.6N 178.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Midway Island Waters
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1075. pcola57
Quoting 1069. wunderkidcayman:


Here

Yes tornados and waterspout are not uncommon here though less likely for tornados because of the small land masses


Keep your head down wunderkid..!! :)
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Quoting 1048. JrWeathermanFL:
@1031:
Woah hold up a minute, I never realized this...
Frances looked like that on September 1st and we've already gotten to F and people are writing off this season?
If this was 2004, we'd still have Ivan and Jeanne to go.
Yes but unlike this year we already had 3 hurricanes two of them majors (Alex 120,Charely 150,and Danielle 110).A major U.S landfall(Charely) not to mention Bonnie (50mph)..and the fact that Alex scraped the outer banks as a hurricane (85mph)..So 2004 is really not a fair comparison :).Frances would eventually go on to become a major and well...Florida and the Bahamas know the rest of the story..
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Keelung Badouzi mudslide HOLY S***



Taiwan
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1072. GatorWX
Quoting 1064. sar2401:

Yep, folks can look at the archives from 2005 and see that breaking 1,000, even with Katrina, was a big deal. Now we break 1,000 arguing about AGW. I do think most of the pros you speak of either went to the NWS or are still pros in their own minds.


LoL and maybe by pros and there are a few, I could have stated respected bloggers?? Those were the good old days.
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Quoting 1041. Hurricanes305:
As DMIN past a couple of hours ago and the overnight hours approach 97L is firing some of its coldest cloud tops in its life cycle over the Atlantic.



It still lacks a mid level low. But as DMAX and more convection rebuilds things could get going much faster than anticipated.



Yup, trying to breathe.
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Quoting 1067. pau143:
hi all

heading to biloxi,miss. for week sept 9 to 14th any long range models looking bad for me? trying my luck at the casinos, whats my luck for hurricanes??



if you win big you have too give us all a 35% shear of your winnings to the hole blog


heh heh heh


this kidding
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting 1063. pcola57:
Anyone from the Cayman Islands on right now?
Confirmed funnel/waterspout..

Current Weather Conditions:
Gerrard Smith Intl. / Cayman Brac, Cayman Islands

2013.09.01 0000 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Thunder
Funnel cloud (tornado or waterspout)
Showers in the vicinity

Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 99.3 F (37.4 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob MWCB 010000Z 10004KT 9999 TS FC VCSH BKN016CB 30/26 Q1013


Here

Yes tornados and waterspout are not uncommon here though less likely for tornados because of the small land masses
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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